Saturday, January 29, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Stocks took a beating on Friday as disappointing earnings and unrest in Egypt ensued. F AMZN CVX all disheartened investors. Action among leading stocks was real worrisome and an explosion in volume cast a real negative feeling over the market. The SOX, one of the shining sectors of this rally, sank almost 3% Friday. Its biggest loss since August. It was hard to find any winning groups Friday, as breadth was horrible, but oil and gold related securities were among the few standouts. Sentiment indicators are at extreme levels which really makes this feel like it could possibly be more than just a shallow correction coming our way. As always though let the markets price and volume action dictate your moves. Another big week for earnings awaits us with BIDU EMN KLAC XOM reporting Monday.

Not much to offer on stocks with specific buy points. VRSN responded well to earnings Friday and is shaping a cup base buy point of 34.64. CRUS can be bought if it retreats to its 19.17 double bottom with handle buy point. However I will be looking to sell strength and short until the market can show me some muscle to the upside.

In corrections leading stocks like to consolidate and try and find support at their 50 day MA. Stocks nearing their 50 day MA are AXL 13.25, MGA 54, TRW 55, ALTR 37, ADI 37.70, ATML 12.40, AVGO 27.50, FCS 15.80, IRF 30, MXIM 24.50, MCHP 35.20, SIGM 13.60, SWKS 29, TEN 33, AXTI 9.80, GSM 17.60, GTI 20, MTL 29, RS 50.25, X 55, A 40, AVT 33.10, CAT 92, CBE 58, ITW 52.15, JOYG 84.50, ANR 56, APC 72, BP 45, CAM 50, CNQ 42, BAC 13.10, MDR 19.80, PBR 35, SLB 82, SU 37, TCK 57.50, TSO 18, WLT 121, WFT 22, AA 15.10, CLF 79, AAPL 328, EMC 23, OPEN 73.50, PLCM 40, AGCO here, AGU 86.50, NOC 65.50, LULU 65, COST 71, EBAY 29.50, PETM 39.50, ROST 64, WAG 38.25, WFMI 50, DD 49, LYB 33, PPG 82, SOA here, AMP 57.50, BX 14.40, FISV 59.50, NDAQ 23.25, AMTD 19, PAYX 31, DHI 12, FLR 65, KBR 30, CIS 23, ADSK 39, INFA 44, ORCL 30.50, ROVI 60, SNPS 26.50, CSX 65.50, UNP here, BK 30, USB 26, ETN 101.50, REE 12, BLL 68.50. NBL found good 50 day support on the oil rise related to Egypt. CXO showed excellent relative strength as it found support at its 50 day line and ramped higher. A domestic oil and gas producer with almost all of their drilling onshore in Texas. A safe haven from the middle east oil craziness. How about a change in energy policy Mr. President.

Other stocks showing good relative strength Friday were BHI DVN HAL HES MEE NOV PTEN CLR SU WLL MOS KKR. Gap ups that transpired this week and which demonstrated excellent relative strength as well Friday on a horrendous tape were UA SWK HP NFLX TER.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are MRVL 18, OVTI 24, SLAB 33, MUR 61, PUDA 10, SWN 37, GFI 15, NKE 78, PVH 57.50, HPQ 44, LOGI 17, TEVA 53, LLL 75, RTN 48.25, ARUN 18.50, AKAM 46, ANN 21, DRI 44.50, DLTR 47.40, GES 40, JWN 38, YUM 45.10, PX 87, MAR 36, WYN 26.50, BUD here, TAP 46, ABV 24.25, INFY 64.50, SAPE 11.45, RHT 37.50, NSC 59, NTRS 50.60. BAC can be bought thru 14, its 200 day MA. BBD bounced nicely off the 200 day Friday. AEM ABX both finished decently higher after finding support at the 200 day. Group mate NEM which lost its 200 day recently finished lower on the day. You breach the 200 day and look out below. It is survival of the fittest in equity world too.

Stocks looking weak and which lost their 50 day MAs today were ALV BWA CMI F JCI PCAR BRCM LRCX MSCC SCHN OXY BHP RIO VALE NTAP SQM AMZN SBUX HOT CTSH PMTC CHRW FDX ALB UPS. Stocks which can be shorted as they find resistance at their 50 day MA are ALV 79.35, MSCC 23.20, WAT 78, JRCC 23.30, NFX 70.25, SPN 34.25, COH 55.60, DECK 79.50, AAP 66, HOT 60, INTU 47.75, PMTC 23, VMW 89, UPS 72, SCCO 46. Stocks that can be shorted as they pierce thru their 50 day MAs are LLTC under 34.15, TKR under 48, PH under 85, TDC under 42.40, GOOG under 600, EL under 79.50, PCLN under 417, RCL under 45, ADP under 47, BMC under 46.50, STT under 46. TROW had an outside reversal day Friday.

Portfolio flat. BTU lost its 50 day, and IBN lost its 200 day. Those MAs were the catalyst for getting in and therefore for getting out. Discipline.

Good luck.

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