Saturday, January 15, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets again demonstrated resiliency Friday. Shrugging off overseas weakness and a slightly lower open here at home, markets closed upon their highs of the day. Volume kicked in to boot. Semis vastly outperformed Friday and for the week they were up astonishing 6.1%. The Nasdaq rose almost 2%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.7% for the week. INTC good earnings report, albiet the stock closed down undoubtedly helped tech, but financials shined as well Friday thanks to JPM. New highs are trouncing new lows. For example on the Nasdaq Friday 52 week highs outnumbered 52 week lows by 228 to 8. Could the market be getting frothy here? Absolutely. But remember to keep losses small, but more importantly let your winners run. As John Maynard Keynes famously said, "markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you or I can remain solvent". Big earnings week on tap on the shortened holiday week with markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King day. AAPL GS SLB IBM GOOG and many more.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases are DOV @59.92, MDR @21.13, SPN @36.09, RIO @73.10, COST @73.55, BID @47.90, SBUX @33.52, PPG @85.15, MAR @42.78, SAPE @13.54, BMC @42.91, ORCL @32.37, RHT @49.10, EXPD @57.25, UPS @74.04. Cup bases are RS @55.57, GOOG @630.95, JNS @15.82, NYX @34.92, PAYX @32.92, LEN @21.89. Cup with handles are MSCC @24.78, ATU @28.35, HAL @41.83, NOC @68.85, NTRS @56.96. 5 week tights are DHR @48.06, IR @47.91, DD @50.64. 4 week tight is CAT @94.99 and double bottom is CRUS @19.17.

Stocks that broke out Friday include KBR from a flat base buy point of 31.52 on big volume. APC broke out from a 79.08 cup with high handle buy point in good volume as well. Semis that rode the coattails of INTC earnings on Friday include ALTR which broke out of a 38.24 flat base buy point and LLTC which broke out from a 5 week tight pattern at 35.48. All were in good volume. I will just from here on out assume that you know a breakout includes very strong volume. MXIM continues to follow thru on its 24.99 flat base buy point that occurred Tuesday. 3 stocks demonstrating very tight action after recent breakouts include KSU @50.17 from a flat base on 1/6/11. OPEN @76.79 also from a flat base on 1/7/11. AGU @89.79 from a cup base on 12/29. Very bullish action when this tight trade develops after a recent breakout.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are ALV @79, BWA @66.50, F @17, PCAR @56, GTI @19.50, SCHN @61, X @53, PKI @25, VSH @15, ROK @70, ANR @55, ACI @32, JRCC @23, JKS @25, MUR @71, OXY @93, BTU @61, TSO @17.25, AA @14.25, VALE @34, SQM @54, ARUN @23, RCII @29.50, SOA @22.80, ADSK @38, CA @24, INFA @43, CHRW @76.50. AKAM reclaimed its 50 day MA on Thursday and continued to rush ahead Friday. CMG retook its 50 day Friday as it works on a new base. UA is stubbornly holding on to its 50 day. Stocks that can be bought as and if they reclaim their 50 day MAs are INTU thru 48.25, PTEN thru 21.25, NBL thru 85. Stocks which rebounded off their 50 day MA Friday were XXIA DECK WYN CHKP SNPS VRSN.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are PBR 36, AEM 67, PVH 58, LOGI 17, LLL 76, WSM 30.25, TGT 54, HPQ 44.25, DRI 44.50, DLTR 47, GES 40, LTD 27.25, TAP 46. BAC continues to show strength after reclaiming its 200 day MA as is RTN. ABX found 200 day support Friday, and NEM further shows once a 200 day line is violated doesnt bode well for its future. MCD however did reclaim its 200 day Friday and can be bought with a 72 sell stop. LMT can be bought thru 75, its 200 day MA. IBN found 200 day support 3 times this week. PNC had a 5% move Friday after 6 weeks of consolidating above its 200 day MA. TBT looking stronger all the time as it has now been holding above that 200 day line for some time now. Further adding to the bull case, since in general as bonds lose value, stocks gain on the rotation.

Stocks showing weakness are CPX ANN GFI OMC which continue to lose more ground under their 50 day. ABV plunged below its 50 day in enormous volume. YUM was recently stopped at its 50 day and continues lower. NFX can be shorted under 70, its 50 day. COH @55.25, NKE @86 can be shorted at their 50 day MAs. CREE was a notable laggard in the semi space Friday. Holding onto its 200 day MA here. Earnings Tuesday. Hmm, does someone know something??

Portfolio changes today were buying FCX @118 which should have been down on a weak gold day, although copper did rally. Good relative strength. Short ANF @52, going below its 50 day MA.

Good luck.


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