Saturday, January 8, 2011

Weekend Market Thoughts

As the saying goes, so goes the first week, so goes the year in the stock market. If that is the case then the bulls have plenty to be cheery about. The Nasdaq gained almost 2% on the week and the S&P 500 just over 1%. The Philly semiconductor index gained 3.4%. For the week the rotation seems to be continuing with gold, silver and retail falling upon hard times. The weeks strongest groups were homebuilders, transports, casinos and semis. Wednesdays ADPs employment report blasted through estimates while Fridays BLS employment report fell below views. AA kicks off earnings season Monday.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases are as follows: TEN @44.01, CLR @60.25, NFX @73.68, SLB @84.65, OII @76.96, CBI @34.55, PMTC @23.46, FFIV @143.85, RAX @32.79, FDX @95.29, UNP @95.88, UPS @74.04, MDR @21.13, PH @88.39, SBUX @32.58, TXN @34.03, ADI @38.70, TKR @50.27, HUN @17.00, PLL @51.11, LTC @35.48, FISV @60.74. 3 week tight patterns are CMI @113.98, CVX @92.58, TROW @66.25, CAT @94.99, JOYG @90.56, OKE @56.68, FLR @68.63, AMG @102.77. 4 week tight patterns are DD @50.64, IR @47.91, AVGO @29.04, DHR @48.06. Double bottom base is LVS @52.18 and GOOG with a 630.95 cup base buy point. As always demand strong volume of 50% or more of average daily trade.

Stocks near 50 day MAs are SQM @54, NOV @62, BEXP @26, HAL @38, BTU @60, SLB @79, SU @36, SPN @32.50, ARBA @22, CHKP @44.50, INFA @43, QSFT @27, VRSN @32.60, NTAP 54, IBM @145.50, NTGR 33, TRMB @38.75, VALE @33.50, MDR @19, DOV @56.70, ROK @69, TEX @27, KBR @28.50, COST @69, DECK @74, ANF @52, LOW @23.75, SCCO @46, RAI @32.50, STT @45, NDAQ @22.50, BMC @46, CTL @44, ATU @25, PCAR @55.50, MCHP @34.20, AGCO @48, FST @35.60, OIS @60, MIPS @16, WFT @21. Stocks that found 50 day support today, on a weak day, and rebounded were MUR WLL INTU FOSL RHT PX EXPD XXIA UPS SBUX RIO FL WFMI DKS ALB. BIDU DTV broke back above their 50 day MA Friday.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are SMG @48.80, PBR @36, SWN @37, BVN @42, FDO @43, MCD @73, PVH @58, TGT @54.25, LTD @27.25, TAP @46, IBN @44.40, CREE @64, LOGI @17, HNZ @47, BAC @14.20. DISCA found 200 day support Friday. NEM falls further below 200 day MA.

OPEN broke out from a 76.79 flat base buy point on good volume. WYNN broke out from its 117.60 buy point in healthy volume in a cup base.

Stcoks showing weakness today were: SIAL RADS UA PETM RL TIF WSM NVLS KLAC all of which lost their 50 day MA Friday. Stocks that have fallen further below their 50 day this past week were NLC AMT ABX PAAS ORLY KMX NKE KO ANN M GES PM OVTI FOE PTEN. Stocks that can be shorted as they move back up toward their 50 day MAs are YUM @50, SLW @36, CB @59. The alcohol/tobacco group was hit hard Friday including STZ LO PM.

Portfolio changes Friday include Selling CHRW near 80. Transports had a great day and CHRW did not participate. We bought CHRW on 11/30 @73.52 from a flat base on big volume. We sold BBT @26.60 for a 75 cent loss as it lost its catalyst of rising above its 200 day a few days ago. Cut losses quickly. We covered TTM @27 for a $3 gain. We shorted it 12/20 as it found 50 day MA resistance.
We shorted TIBX Friday right about here as it continues to find 50 day resistance after its bearish outside reversal day 12/20. We bought NSC @63.77 as it broke out from a flat base on big volume.

Good luck.


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