Saturday, April 30, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets finished the week off with solid gains once again. The Nasdaq finished the week almost 2% higher for the second week. This week came in greater volume. The S&P 500 has also recorded back to back firm weeks. Remember both indexes took out resistance levels this week. The Nasdaq has now risen for 8 consecutive days and is currently at a 10 year high. Impressive since big cap names, albeit leaders from long ago, RIMM MSFT were slammed Friday. Fridays winning groups hailed from the coal, solar and tire making sectors. Stocks that have broken out recently and continue to outperfrorm and tack on more gains are COH APKT ICON KSU HON ALTR HS BHI CE HK. Leaders rising above on solid earnings Friday were CAT OXY. VFC DECK, were retailers that were flattened out. Gold this week hit an all time high of $1556 as the dollar sank to its lowest level since July 2008. Silver finished up the month of April up 28%. GDP was reported at a paltry 1.8% this week for Q1 and the fed showed no signs of leaving interest rates at near 0%. Stocks hitting all time highs this week were CNI TWC GG ARUN DHR K MMM MCHP. A diverse bunch indeed. Earnings before the market opens Monday come from CPO LYB and after the close from APC ADP CHK FMC. RAX NOG WCRX also report Monday. Economic reports due Monday include construction spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Cup bases MSCC 25.06, PVH 72.52, AVT 37.26, AVGO 34.70, CY 24.03, MXIM 28.54, TXN 36.81, XLNX 35.52, CHRW 82.15, EBAY 35.45, BUD 64.87. Cup with handles are CLR 73.58, XOM 88.33, NBL 99.09, UPL 50.91, AGU 99.24, CBS 26.27, FDX 96.60, BEAV 39.59, PETM 43.10. Flat bases are DVN 93.66, ADM 38.12, BMC 51.53, HES 87.50. Double bottoms are KLAC 48.19, SWKS 33.34, EXPD 55.21, OMC 49.88, TRW 60.40. Double bottom with handle is AAPL 355.23, and 3 week tight patterns are KO 68.57, CBI 41.88.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are APC 80.25, BTU 68, SLB 90.25, SUN 43.70, WFT 21.85, AGU 92, POT 58, KLAC 46.25, ABX 52.25. Stocks that retook their 50 day MA Friday were ACI CHK COP CLR SU SWKS GSM AMX. Stocks near 50 day support are CVX 105, GPOR 31.75, NBR 29.05, SM 72, CBE 65, MTW 20.80, PPG 91, ABC 39, APH 55, TXN 35, DD 54.20, BX 18.05, PAY 52, DKS 39.85, SBUX 35.50, TTM 26.75. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were CXO CMG NKE AA VALE BBD RKT.

Stocks near 200 day support are NOG 22.50, PBR 36.20, RIG 69.15, WCRX 22.25, MON 64, MOS 70, JBL 17.05, LRCX 47.35, RVBD 31, MTL 27.10, PAAS 33.50. NVLS found 200 day support Friday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are CRUS 18, X 51, MS 27. Stocks that can be bought through their 200 day MA and their buy stop spots are AEM 70.50, GOLD 88.30. Stocks that have had nice moves off recent 200 day support are MSCC SWKS RIG GR ABX CHRW.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are BEXP 34.50, FTO 28.20, MDR 24.05, NOV 78.50, SPN 38.80, VLO here, ROK 90.50, MAR 36.75, CCL 39.25, AMP here, TROW 65.75, UA 70, SLW 42.35, CLF 95. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are COP 78, VPHM 18.70, BRKR 19.30, NFLX 223, WFMI 61.50. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were AMP EAT JPM HMC FTO SPN TCK VLO. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were WCRX JBL DECK UA WY CLF.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM F RAX FCX.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Thursday Night Charting

Markets once again displayed muster today. With the major indexes all closing near intraday highs. A hallmark quality of bull markets are strong action into the close. And they did so again shrugging off disappointing early headlines. GDP of 1.8% and higher than expected jobless claims. Earnings for the most part continued to impress, with leaders CRR AET CTXS PAG MSI VIAB all surging. After the close earnings reports were mixed. EMN ACOM NTGR were powering ahead, while DECK RIMM MSFT MTW fell. More leading stocks broke out during the trading session today including COH KSU. Stocks like R ICON DOW ALTR continue to add to recent gains after breaking out this fortnight. Transports were strong and many theorists point to the recent all time high in the index, as evidence of the power of this rally. Earnings come tomorrow before the bell from CAT CVX WY VFC FLIR. Economic reports Friday are Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment and personal income.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Cup bases are DOV 68.17, AVT 37.26, AVGO 34.69, CY 24.03, MXIM 28.54, XLNX 35.52, CHRW 82.15, UPS 77.10, EBAY 35.45, QCOM 59.94, BUD 64.87, PVH 72.52, ADI 41.76. Cup with handles are APA 132.60, XOM 88.33, NBL 99.09, UPL 50.91, CBS 26.27, FDX 96.60, BEAV 39.59, CBI 42.59, KBR 38.89. Double bottoms are EXPD 55.21, OMC 49.88, TRW 60.40. 3 week tight is IP 31.10, 4 week tight is WCRX 24.43. IL, a recent breakout, retook its 30.41 cup base breakout on 4/20. It retreated to 50 day MA and rallied 6% today. CPX is coming back to its 32.59 cup with handle buy point it took out 4/21.

Stocks which can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are APC 80.50, ACI 34.30, CHK 33.50, DVN 90, SLB 90, WFT 21.90, GSM 22.40, JPM 46.25, HMC 39.10. ARBA NKE WY all retook their 50 day MAs today. Stocks near 50 day support are HES 82.25, NBR 29, SM 72, HS 38, APH 55, BRKR 19.70, TXN 35, BX 18, PAY 51.75, AAPL 344, CSX 76, DKS 39.80, YUM 51, ARUN 32, F 14.95, RIO 70, CLF 95 (up after bell on earnings). Stocks which enjoyed 50 day support today were CXO EXXI OXY PXD BMC CMG WFMI UA ADM BBD.

Stocks near 200 day support are CAM 48.25, NOG 22.95, SUN 39.80, TCK 50, WFT 20, MON 64, MOS 70, POT 51.25, KLAC 39, LRCX 47.40, NVLS 31.55, JNPR 35, RVBD 30.85, MTL 27.10, AMX 55.20, ABX 49, VALE 32.15. PBR found 200 day support today. RIMM got pummeled after the bell, after finding 200 day resistance during the day. BRCM X, now RIMM giving further examples to the dangers of losing your 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are APC 80, BEXP 34.50, COP 78.35, FTO 28.05, NOV 78.25, SPN 38.50, VLO 28.50, SWK 75.70, AGU 91.25, AMP here, URI 31.50. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are GPOR 31, MRO 51, VPHM 19. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were COP SPN TCK WNR SWK AGU. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were CLR NUE SLW PAAS CLR FTI FTO IO SLB VSEA. BG ABC both had bearish outside days Thursday.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F FCX.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Wednesday Recap

Markets moved higher Wednesday with the bulk of the moves coming after the much hyped Big Ben press conference. For the second consecutive day indexes enjoyed solid gains after taking out their resistance levels Tuesday. Volume was mixed and leading stocks continue to breakout. Today AMZN APKT both took out buy points. Others which have recently broke out in the last few days tacked on more gains. They include CMI ALTR R. New all time highs today came from a diverse group including DHR IBM UNP ACN COST TIF PRGO RAX ROC. On the negative side AAPL again failed to participate in the rally for the second straight day. But lets remember it rallied some 35 points from its bottom last week. Stocks that reacted negatively to earnings which has been a rarity of late were COP PH ROK NOV SWK CBG. In a healthy bull stocks frequently can shrug off a bad report. After hours earnings action was mixed. EBAY CTXS NSC XLNX were up, while SBUX AKAM NVLS were lower. BIDU was all over the place, but basically unchanged as we wrote. Tomorrow earnings flood continues with reports before the open from AET ABC APA AVT BLL BWA BG CAM CRUS DOW XOM HS IP IRM KBR MSI NBL OXY PAG HOT TYC VPHM. After the close ACOM CLF CROX DECK EMN MTW MSCC VSEA VRSN report. Economic reports Thursday are jobless claims and GDP estimates.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Cup bases are PVH 72.52, BUD 64.87, QCOM 59.94, CMCSA 26.01, KSY 57.08, CHRW 82.15, HOT 65.61, TXN 36.81, MXIM 28.54, AVGO 34.70, AVT 37.26 (earnings Thur), EBAY 35.45 (had earnings Wed after bell). Cup with handles are APA 132.60 (earnings Thur), XOM 88.33 (earnings Thur), NBL 99.09 (earnings Thur), UPL 50.91, VRSN 37.60 (earnings Thur), FDX 96.60, BEAV 39.59. Double bottoms are KLAC 48.19, EXPD 55.21, OMC 49.88, COH 58.38, WY 25.35, TRW 60.40. Flat bases are DD 56.62, SBUX 38.31 (earnings Wed after bell). IP 31.10 in a 3 weeks tight and RIO 75.09 in a double bottom with handle.

Stocks that can be bought through their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CHK 33.50, SLB 90.50, AFL 54.75, JDSU 21.50, ARBA 31.80, NKE 82.25, AMX 57, WY 24.10, ABX 52.25, JPM 46.15. HES PXD VSEA ADM TRW all retook their 50 day MAs today. Stocks near 50 day support are GPOR 31.50, HES 82.25, NBR 29, SM 72, DOV 65, PLL 56.20, PPG 90.75, HS 38, CBS 24, APH 55, IL 28, BLL 36, DFS 23, DKS 39.75, YUM 51, F 15, SKX 20. Stocks that found 50 day support Wednesday were COP OXY SPN TCK CBG WCRX JBL BMC NFLX PAY CSX CBI KBR CLF (earnings Thur), RKT BSFT.

Stocks near 200 day support are NOG 22.50, PBR 36.25, SUN 39.75, WFT 20, MOS 70, LRCX 47.50, SWKS 26, MT 34.75, MTL 27.05, VALE 32.10, HMC 37.50, ACOM 28 (earnings Thur). RIG bounced nicely off 200 day support Wednesday. NKE faced 200 day resistance today. GOLD can be bought thru its 200 day MA at 88.50. Stocks that can be shorted at their 200 day MAs are CRUS 18 (earnings Thur), RIMM 56.25, MS 27. X is another good example of what happens when 200 day support fails. Had another miserable day today on a strong tape losing its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are APC 80, ACI 34, MDR 24.05, NOV 78.25, MON 69.50, AMP 62, TROW 66, AEM here. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are COP 78, EXXI 33.20, MRO 51, CMG 261. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Wednesday were CLR FTO NOV ROK AGU POT EAT. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were VLO NUE SLW APC ACI CHK DVN SLB. Weakness was seen today on a benign tape from BEXP APC JNPR.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM F RAX FCX.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets rallied sweetly a day before the Feds unprecedented press conference following their FOMC meeting. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both broke through resistance levels and closed near highs for the day, which were also new 52 week highs for the indexes. Volume was up sharply from Tuesdays levels, although they were the softest of this year yesterday. Leaders were strangely mixed today with AAPL NFLX OPEN TZOO UA LULU KO all lagging. NFLX UA KO were due to poor earnings reports where the carnage stopped at their 50 day MAs today. IBM, a recent leader, hit an all time high on a 15% dividend hike and a big buyback. Strong groups included the semis, transports and machinery sectors. Cloud related firms were soft. Commodities sold off thanks again to a weaker dollar, and perhaps in front of what may be spoken by Bernanke regarding the easy money that has flooded the financial markets for almost 2 years. Gold, oil and silver all fell today with silver taking the worst of the beating, down almost 5%. Consumer confidence rose and morning earnings reports put a bid under the market, that it really never surrendered. F WAT CMI MMM all set the bullish tone with solid forecasts. After the close today a number of companies reported earnings. AMZN is up while APKT BRCM SWK are all lower. Tomorrow a bevy of earnings reports continues with ATI ARW BHI EAT HES NOV PH PX ROK ROC WLP COP before the bell and AKAM CTXS EBAY NSC NVLS OIS SBUX SPN WLL XLNX after the close. Durable goods will also be reported before the opening.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Cup bases are AVT 37.26, AVGO 34.70, MXIM 28.54, SPRD 24.30, TXN 37.71, CHRW 82.15, KSU 57.08 (earnings Wednesday), EBAY 35.45 (earnings Wed), QCOM 59.94, BUD 64.87, RKT 74.36. Cup with handles are APA 132.60, XOM 88.33, NBL 99.09, AGU 99.24, FDX 96.60, BEAV 39.59, FLIR 35.41, RIO 75.09. Flat bases are CXO 110.99, PLL 59.60, CMCSA 26.01, COP 81.90 (earnings Wed), NOV 82.90 (earnings Wed). Double bottoms are MOS 83.51, KLAC 48.19, EXPD 55.21, OMC 49.88, NVLS (earnings Wed). Double bottom with handle is BBD 21.44 and 3 week tight is IP 31.10. R broke out from a 52.16 double bottom with handle today. HON DOW both continue to add to recent gains from their breakouts last week.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CHK 33.40, DVN 90.20, SLB 90.25, AMX 56.90, TRW 55.75. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were NOV (earnings Wed), OXY AGU APH JBL VSEA CSX ADM AA AMT.
Stocks near 50 day support are BHI 71 (earnings Wed), GPOR 31, MRO 51, SM 72, SPN 38.55 (earnings Wed), TCK 54.25, WNR 17, SWK 75.25 (earnings tonight), CBG 27, STJ 50.15, VPHM 19, CBS 24, IL 28, VRSN 36.15, DD 54.20, BX 18, AAPL 345, YUM 51, CLF 95, KBR 35.50, SBUX 35.20 (earnings Wed).

Stocks near 200 day support are PBR 36.25, RIG 68, WFT 20, LRCX 47.25, SWKS 26, MTL 27.05, ABX 48.95, PAAS 33.25, HMC 37.25. Stocks that can be shorted at their 200 day MAs are CRUS 18, X 51, NKE 81, RIMM 56.50, GOLD 88, MS 27.

Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are APC 80, BEXP 34.30, HES 82.25 (earnings Wed), MDR 24.05, AMP 62, TROW 66, URI 1.75, WY 24, AEM 67.50, JPM 46. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are FTO 27.80, PAY 51, NFLX 224. WDR lost its 50 day MA today. APC BEXP DVN SLB NUE all met 50 day resistance today. Weakness was met today in BEXP RIG VLO AMP JNPR SLW BAC.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F FCX.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets paused to start the week after the holiday break. Volume and leading stocks were tame. SOHU did manage to break out however. Stocks did stall even in the face of some decent news. Good home sale news, solid earnings reports and some M&A activity in the commodity space. Indexes remain firmly above their 50 day MAs. After hours some tech movement was delivered from a poor earnings report from NFLX and the announcement of ORCL CFO resigning. Could have a negative impact on the Nasdaq opening tomorrow. Gold and silver stocks reversed today after the metals themselves hit strong new highs early on. Networkers, software and internet sectors were the leaders of the day. Tomorrow brings consumer confidence reports and home price data. Earnings before the bell Tuesday include AGCO ACI CE KO F SIAL UA X VLO WAT WDR COH and APKT ALTR AMZN BRCM CHRW CBI NBR RKT SWK after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Cup with handles are HAL 50.84, UPL 50.91, AGCO 57.30 (earnings Tuesday), VRSN 37.60, FDX 96.60, FLIR 35.41, CBI 42.59. Cup bases are AVGO 34.70, MXIM 28.54, SPRD 24.30, CHRW 82.15, UPS 77.10, EBAY 35.45, PETM 43.49, ABV 32.10. Double bottoms are AAPL 354.42, JNPR 42.37, EXPD 55.21. Flat bases are NOV 82.90, SWK 77.57 (earnings Tuesday). Double bottom with handle is BBD 21.44, DKS 41.93 in a 3 week tight pattern and KO 68.57 (earnings Tuesday) in a 4 week tight base.

Stocks that cna be bought if they can retake their 50 day MAs to the upside and their buy stop spots are CHK 33.25, AGU 92.75, TRW 55.75. POT UPS EBAY all retook their 50 day MAs today. Stocks near 50 day support are BHI 70.50, CVX 104.20, COP 78, XOM 84, MRO 51, NBR 29 (earnings Tuesday), NBL 93, RDSA 72, SM 71.80, SPN 38.50, TCK 54.25, WNR 17, CAT 106, DOV 65, JOYG 95.50, CBG 26.90, PPG 90.50, HS 37.75, STJ 50.10, DE 91.25, CBS 24, VIAB 46, DTV 46, ARW 41, AVT 34, DHR 51.50, WAT 85.50 (earnings Tuesday), ORCL 33, CY 20, TXN 35, BLL 36, DD 54.15, IP 28.20, BX 18, DFS 23, GR 85.85, CMG 262, SBUX 35.20, QCOM 55, KBR 35.55, RIO 70, ROC 48, RKT 68.40 (earnings Tuesday). Stocks that found 50 day support today were CXO FTI SU VLO CBE IL AVGO CNI UNP MT EAT PAG ABX.

Stocks near 200 day support are APA 111, PBR 36.60, RIG 68, WFT 19.90, WCRX 22.20, MON 63.75, BRCM 40 (earnings Tuesday), LRCX 47.15, SWKS 26, TROW 58.80, MTL 27.10, X 51 (earnings Tuesday), AMX 55.10, ABX 48.85, PAAS 33.10, JPM 41.95, HMC 37.25 NKE GOLD both met 200 day resistance today. MS can be shorted at 27, its 200 day MA. NOG had a solid 4% move today after finding 200 day support last week. NOG has now rallied almost 14% in 4 days since finding 200 day support.

Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are APC 80, DVN 89, HES 82.25, MDR 24.05, OXY 101.75, SLB 90, VSEA 46.25, URI 31.75, RVBD 38, CSX 76, GSM 22.25, WY 23.95, AEM 68, ADM 36.10. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were CHK DVN SLB AGU JBL ADM AA AMT. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CLR 67, IO 12.05, PXD 99.25, PLL 55.50, ARBA 31, amp 61.75, el 92.50. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were APA BMC SLW AEM PAAS.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F FCX.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets continued there bullish tone Thursday in a shortened week with the markets closed for Good Friday. During the week, full of earnings reports, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both reclaimed their 50 day MAs. The Nasdaq outperformed the S&P 500, as the tech index rallied 2%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.3%. Indexes are approaching resistance levels here with the Nasdaq near 2840 and the S&P 500 at 1340. With another big earnings load this coming week perhaps those resistance levels can be taken out. Lending further credence to the rally was the positive action that leading stocks provided. Many broke out, which we know is a strong baromter to overall market health. Socks hitting all time highs Thursday were A WAT UTX OPEN IBM LULU TIF RL. Both the SMH XLE groups are returning to the limelight after some recent trouble. Both the SDS VXX were again repelled at their 50 day MAs during the week. Keep in mind that volatility increases during the bulk of earnings season, so keep that in mind. Earnings next Monday come from SOHU BEAV CBE before the open and NFLX after the bell. New home sales will also be reported.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup with handles BHI 75.20, CLR 73.58, DVN 93.66, XOM 88.33, HAL 50.84, MRO 54.29, NOV 82.90, NBL 99.09, RDSA 75.34, SPN 41.75, AGCO 57.30, VRSN 37.60, AMP 63.88, FDX 96.60, FLIR 35.41, JWN 47.38. Cup bases DOV 68.17, AET 39.33, AVT 37.26, TXN 36.81, HOT 65.61, CHRW 82.15, PETM 43.49, QCOM 59.94, ABV 32.10, ABX 55.82, RKT 74.36, SIAL 68.02. Flat bases CXO 110.99, COP 81.90, WMB 31.99, SWK 77.57, PPO 61.85, WDR 42.59, PLCM 52.20, SBUX 38.31, CMCSA 26.01. Double bottoms MOS 83.51, ARMH 31.43, AAPL 354.42, JNPR 42.37, EXPD 55.21, OMC 49.88, TRW 56.58. Double bottom with handles are BG 74.50, R 52.16, AMZN 188.37, CMI 113.75. 3 week tight patterns MSI 44.86, IP 31.10, DD 56.62, DKS 41.93. 4 week tight is WCRX 24.43, and DTV 47.70 in a square box pattern. HON cleared a 60.12 cup with handle post earnings. CPX cleared a 32.59 cup with handle buy point as well. DOW cleared a 39.10 flat base buy point Thursday too. DHR cleared a 53.11 flat base buy point on earnings then reversed. IL is right back to its 30.41 cup base buy point it cleared on Wednesday. This is completely normal action, and remember to cut all losses at 7% from your purchase point no matter what.

Stocks that can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CHK 33.35, OXY 101.75, BTU 67.75, PBR 39.60, SLB 90.75, AGU 92.75, POT 59.15, JBL 20.90, BRCM 40.90, RVBD 38.50, UPS 73.85, MTL 30.25, GSM 22.40, EBAY 32.55, ADM 36.40. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Thursday were CXO CI NOV SU VLO AA VALE BRCM CY MXIM HOT COF BWA PAG. Stocks near 50 day support are CVX 104, GPOR 30.50, PXD 100, SGY 30, UPL 46.80, WNR 17, CBE 64.50, JOYG 95.50, PLL 56.20, LYB 39.75, STJ 50, VAIB 46, DHR 51.25, CHKP 50.25, ORCL 32.80, AVGO 32, CY 20, BLL 36, DFS 23, ADP 50.75, GR 86, EAT 24.30, DKS 39.30, EL 93.50, CBI 38, VAL 38.50, CLF 94.50, ROSE 44, ROC 47.60. Stocks that found 50 day support Thursday were APA EXXI IO ARBA CNI SLW. WLT had an enormous 10 point intraday reversal off of a bounce from its 50 day MA Thursday post earnings.

Stocks near 200 day support are NOG 22.25, SUN 39.45, RIG 68.25, WFT 19.85, JBL 17, LRCX 47, TROW 58.75, MTL 27, X 50.80, AMX 55, PAAS 33. HMC reclaimed its 200 day MA, while GOLD MS found 200 day resistance after trying intraday to reclaim that line. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are NKE 81, RIMM 56.25, MAR 37.50.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are APC 80.25, HES 82.25, MDR 24, MON 70, URI 32, CSX 76, WY 24, JPM 46. Stocks whihc ran into 50 day resistance Thursday were APC BEXP OXY SLB AGU APH BMC VSEA CSX UNP AEM AMT.

A quick look at bifurcating action within sectors is always a good idea. Lets take 2 groups today. In the semis group which behaved relatively well Thursday if you were not in the right stocks you could have been hurt. While stocks like ATML CY MSCC ARMH all powered ahead laggards like CREE CRUS fell. Stick with strength. Im not endorsing a pairs trade here but they could develop. In the gold sector, lets compare the strength of GG ABX as opposed to the weakness in AEM. Again leave the laggards for the guys who specialize in value. Buy strength and sell weakness.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM F RAX FCX.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Wednesday After Market

Markets jumped Wednesday after a bevy of good earnings reports and a falling US dollar. Volume backed up the big gains and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reclaimed their 50 day MAs. Breadth was impressive. Gains were seen in retail, semiconductors and auto related sectors. Rails were weak on an earnings miss from CSX, and banks and ags were weak as well. INTC got the day started after a solid earnings report after the close Wednesday, giving enough of a boost to get the SMH above its 50 day MA. XLE, the energy ETF, also reclaimed its 50 day MA Wednesday. Many leading stocks broke out from bases today signaling the market rally is back on its uptrend. AAPL was behaving beautifully on earnings after the close as was QCOM. CMG was lower. Many retail stocks were among the issues hitting all time highs today. They included FOSL BBBY LTD TJX TIF DECK VFC WRC RL and GG. Tomorrow we can expect earnings before the open from BX CY DHR DD HON KSU MCD MS PPG RAI SLB TPX WFT and ADS COF PLCM INFA after the close. TROW CPX also report Thursday. Along with all the earnings reports we receive data on jobless claims, the Philly Fed and leading indicators tomorrow.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup with handles include BHI 75.20, XOM 88.33, HAL 50.84, MRO 54.29, NBL 99.09, UPL 50.91, VRSN 37.60, NFLX 248.98, HON 60.12, FDX 96.60, JWN 47.38, FLIR 35.41, CBI 42.59. Double bottoms are ARMH 31.43, KLAC 48.19, MSCC 22.94, NVLS 37.70, AAPL 354.42 (earnings beat after close), EXPD 55.21. Double bottom with handles are TROW 68.69 (reports Thursday), R 52.16, AMZN 188.36, IBN 51.60, BBD 21.44. 3 week tight patterns are WCRX 24.43, VIAB 47.97, WAT 90.33, DD 56.62, ACN 57.02. Cup bases are QCOM 59.44 (earnings beat after close), ABV 32.10, ABX 55.82, RKT 74.36. Flat bases are WMB 31.99, SWK 77.57, SBUX 38.31. Stocks that cleraed buy ponts today were, ALTR cleared a 44.47 cup with handle buy point. IL cleared a 30.41 cup base. DHR cleared a 53.11 flat base buy point (earnings Thursday). VMW screamed past a 91.78 double bottom base on solid earnings. EMC cleared a 27.69 flat base buy point on earnings as well. TDC cleared a 51.47 buy point in a 3 weeks tight patter. RHT RAX both cleared buy points Thursday only to finish just below them. COH cleared a 56.81 double bottom buy point, but volume did not meet the 40% greater than daily average volume to qualify as a legitimate breakout.

Stocks that can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are ACI 34.25, DVN 89.50, NOV 79.25, OXY 101.75, SLB 90.25, SU 45.10, AGU 92.35, CY 20.25 (earnings Thursday), MXIM 26.25, TXN 35.50, VSEA 46.60, GSM 22.25, OMC 49.10, EBAY 32.30, ADM 36.30, BWA 76.45, VALE 33.75. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs Thursday were FCX ROSE MT GR YUM CMCSA ALV CMI F APA APC CLR FTI PXD TCK JOYG AGCO DE AVT TTMI ATML AVGO MSCC HOT UTX CNI. Stocks near 50 day support were SGY 30, CBE 64.25, MTW 20.30, HS 37, VPHM 18.55, CBS 23.90, CLF 94, PAY 50.50. IO IBM PAAS all found 50 day support today.

Stocks near 200 day support are SUN 39.40, JBL 17, RVBD 30.10, X 50.55, AMX 55. Buy stops can be placed on the following stocks as they retake their 200 day MAs. GOLD 88.50, HMC 37.40. Stocks that hit 200 day resistance Thursday were BRCM GOLD MS HMC. AMT reclaimed its 200 day today. Stocks that can be shorted into 200 day resistance are CRUS 18, NKE 81, MS 27, RIMM 56.50.

Stocks that cna be shorted as they hit 50 day resistance are HES 82.25, MDR 24, VLO here, WFT 22.10, WY 24. Place a sell stop on EXXI at 32.80 if it pierces its 50 day MA on the downside. Stocks that encountered 50 day resistance today were CXO BEXP MDR CHK DV NOV OXY VLO POT APH ARBA BMC UPS BWA PAG AEM. CSX had an ugly downside reversai after an earnings miss. Looks like its long term uptrend line is going to be shaky from here on out short term. Relative weakness was seen today by SUN WLT MTW AGU MOS POT CCL LL TYC URI MCP MOBI UNP CSX IRM BUD SLW.

Good luck.

We bought FCX back at 53.89 around 10am, after it pulled back from a dollar higher from where we bought it. Did find 50 day support although it did close upon its lows for the day.

The author owns TTM RAX F FCX.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets rose on light volume Tuesday as indexes closed near highs for the day. Perhaps the huge load of earnings this week and the upcoming holiday slowed trade. The indexes did not manage to reclaim their 50 day MAs. GS finished lower after reporting before the bell. After the close a number of techs including VMW JNPR INTC all were trading higher. IBM was the only one falling after the bell. Tomorrow expect earnings from ALV EMC LRCX STJ UTX YUM before the open and AAPL CMG LRCX QCOM after the close. FCX WLT also report on Wednesday. Existing home sales are reported Wednesday as well.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Double bottom with handles are DOV 67.51, BG 74.50, AVT 35.33, BLL 37.09, TROW 68.69, AMZN 188.37, R 52.16, BBD 21.44, SIAL 66.35. Cup with handles are CPX 32.59, UPL 50.91, BGC 45.82, ALTR 44.47, NFLX 248.98, JWN 47.38, CBI 42.59. Flat bases are WMB 31.99, SWK 77.57, DHR 53.11, VRSN 37.67. Cup bases are IL 30.41, BUD 64.87, ABV 32.10, ABX 55.82. 3 week tight patterns are VIAB 47.97, MWV 32.34, TDC 51.47, ACN 57.02, TWC 73.29. Double bottoms are MOS 83.51, AAPL 354.52, COH 56.81. MJN broke out from its 61.56 double bottom base but closed just pennies below it at the close.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are APA 103.50, ACI 34.25, CHK 33.25, CLR 67.25, XOM 84.70, PXD 101, TCK 55, WFT 22.35, JOYG 95.25, AGCO 53.75, AGU 92.25, DE 92.90, POT 58.25, ATML 13.90, AVGO 32.25, MSCC 21.55, HOT 59.50, CNI 73.35, GR 86.40, EBAY 32.40, QCOM 55.50, ALV 73.90, FCX 53.40, RIO 70.50, VALE 33.60, ROSE 44.20. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were CAT DOW PPO DD EMC SLW CLF. Stocks near 50 day support are CVX 103, SGY 29.75, WLL 67.20, CBE 64.50, MTW 20.30, ROK 90, LYB 39.25, SOA 24, HS 37, STJ 49.50, VPHM 18.50, ARW 40.90, WAT 84.25, CHKP 50.05, INFA 49, ORCL 32.75, TIBX 26, SMTC 24.10, ADS 81.50, PAY 50.25, EXPD 50, UNP 96, ADP 51, DKS 39.10, SBUX 35, WFMI 61, EL 93.25, BHP 94, ARUN 30.75. Stocks that found 50 day support today were COP EXXI GPOR IO MRO NBL RDSA SM UPL WLP DTV CTXS ARMH BX CTSH FLIR KBR RKT.

Stocks near 200 day support are SUN 39.40, RIG 68, WCRX 22, MON 63.50, APH 50.80, KLAC 38.25, LRCX 47, MSCC 20.05, NVLS 31.20, XLNX 29, RVBD 30, UPS 70, MTL 27, OMC 44, AMX 55, VALE 32. MT retook its 200 day today and F found support their. To demonstrate the importance of 200 day support lets look at the following stocks. Up today from 200 day support were NOG 4%, SWKS 3%, X 5%, ALV 5%. TCK has rallied over 10% since finding 200 day support Monday.

Stocks showing good relative strength today were BHI HAL CROX. Stocks also showing excellent relative strength and hitting all time highs today were PX UA LULU MELI. BTU still looks strong as its chart still shows the stock making higher highs and higher lows. And it had a nice intraday reversal even though it finished lower. I am going to try and purchase it tomorrow and use todays 62 low as a stop.

Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are CXO 105, APC 80.25, BEXP 34.20, DVN 89, HES 82.25, MDR 24, NOV 78.75, VLO 28.50, BMC 49.60, TXN 35, UTX 83.20, AMP 62, COF 51, URI 32, PAG 20, AEM 68.10. Stocks that encountered 50 day resistance today were ARBA CRM. AMX PAAS both lost their 50 day MAs today. Put a sell stop to short FAST at 62.75.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets took a beating early but managed to cut their losses in half. A morning call by S&P to cut its long term outlook on the USA triggered the morning sell off. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both fell below their 50 day MAs. Weakest sectors Monday were basic materials, oil and gas, and healthcare. Leading stocks were generally soft, and earnings results were mixed. CAT, a long time leader, closed below its 50 day MA in big volume for the first time since last August. AAPL had a nice intraday reversal to the upside. On the earnings front, HAL finished higher, while after the close TXN was down nearly 2%. As we have noted recently the semiconductors lagged with the SMH finding seemingly never ending resistance at its 50 day MA. Now the energy group has joined the semis as the group has suffered. XLE has been having its own problems with its 50 day MA and on both the SMH XLE down days have come on big volume. When two leading groups play the disappearing act it normally signals caution at the very least. More concerning is where the rotation has been shifting to. Consumer and medical related companies. Both the SDS VXX are knocking on their 50 day MA doors and may soon pierce above them. In fact that is just what SDS did today. As always pay close attention to the indexes and the leading stocks. Earnings due on Tuesday include GS before the open and VMW INTC JNPR after the close. Housing starts also will be reported tomorrow.

Stocks near specific buy points include among he vast array from yesterday, cup with handles UPL 50.91, JWN 47.38, CPX 32.59. Double bottoms MJN 61.56, COH 56.81. Double bottom with handle is SIAL 66.35. 3 week tight pattern is VIAB 47.97. All these stocks performed reasonably well or found support at MAs, considering the markets pain.

Stocks near 50 day support are GPOR 30, HAL 46.50, OIS 74, SGY 29.75, SPN 38, WNR 16.60, WLL 67, CBE 64.50, BGC 43.10, ABC 38.05, HS 36.75, STJ 49.50, VPHM 18.50, WAT 84.25, INFA 49, IL 27.05, ORCL 32.75, SMTC 24.10, BLL 36, IP 28.15, ADS 81.25, DFS 22.75, PAY 50.25, EXPD 50, ACN 53, ADP 50.50, DKS 39.05, SBUX 34.95, TIF 62, WFMI 61, TWC 70.95, CBI 37.75, KBR 35.10, BHP 94, CPO 49. Stocks that found 50 day support today were CVX CPX MRO WLT MTW ROK SWK CE EMN PPG SOA WLP CBS DTV ARW DHR ADSK CTXS VRSN ARMH ALTR BX UNP BEAV FLIR EAT JWN SBUX EL KBR ARUN TTM SLW ROC RKT. Stocks which can be bought as they retake heir 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are PXD 100.75, HOT 59.80, OMC 49.10. SPRD AKAM both retook their 50 days today on upgrades.

Stocks near 200 day support are ACI 29.50, CAM 48, HES 70, SUN 39.30, RIG 68, WFT 19.75, WCRX 22, AGCO 45.50, AGU 82, MON 63.25, MOS 69, POT 50, APH 50.75, AVT 30.50, JBL 17, TTMI 13.30, ATML 10.35, CY 16.05, KLAC 38.20, LRCX 47, MXIM 22.10, NVLS 31.15, SNDK 44.05, VSEA 36, XLNX 29, JNPR 34.75, RVBD 30, UPS 70, NUE 42.05, GR 81.80, AMX 55, WY 19.10, ADM 32.40, TRW 48, FCX 48.40, JPM 41.80, IBN 47. Stocks which found 200 day support today were NOG PBR TCK C SWKS MTL VALE BBD. MT X ALV AMT all lost their 200 day MAs today.

Stocks that showed strong relative strength today were BHI CPX HAL VMW WYNN MAR HOT OPEN QCOM TPX ABX MOBI. LULU MELI also hit all time highs Monday.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are COP 76.50, EXXI 32.75, FTO 27.25, IO 11.65, MRO 50, NBL 90.50, WMB 29.60, PH 90.50, ROK 89.50, EMN 94.75, LYB 39.25, DTV 45.25, FCS 17.50, TDC 48.50, FAST 62.50. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are CXO 104.75, APC 80, BEXP 34, CHK 33, NOV 79, VLO 28.50, ATML 13.75, AVGO 32, COF 51, URI 31.50, EBAY 32, PAG 20. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were APA CAT PLL AET WCRX BG DE BRKR BMC UTX TROW URI WDR CSX YUM APKT CMI CLF RIO. 50 day resistance was met Monday with XOM SM JOYG DOW ARBA FCS DD EMC. Relative weakness today was seen by MDR VPHM CRUS.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets performed satisfactorily Friday, especially the Nasdaq which started the weakest of the big 3 indexes. The Nasdaq saw big softness early due to GOOG, after a weak response to earnings late Thursday, but AAPL INFY also displayed sluggish action. The 3 of them combine for over 10% of the Nasdaq. So the fact that the Nasdaq finished up must be interpreted as bullish behavior. For the week the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both gained .6%. Leading stocks continue to demonstrate resilience. HK broke out from a cup with handle, and others broke out as well but trade failed to reach the 40% greater than average daily volume minimum. They include TIF DECK VFC CMG A. But volume can kick in this week. Once again many leading stocks are setting up valid buy points after resting through this recent market weakness. Sectors that outperformed this week were drugs and tobacco. Again defensive related names. Is it the rally signifying a broadening out amongst diverse groups or laggards leading? The SDS VXX can give us clues to that question. For the time being their are being repelled at their 50 day MAs as they continue their secular down trends. Monday kicks off a big week for earnings releases, and the major ones start the holiday shortened week off Tuesday are VMW JNPR INTC GS. Also housing related data is reported on Monday.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Flat bases are COP 81.90, WMB 31.99, SWK 77.57, DOW 39.10, AET 39.33, DHR 53.11, VRSN 37.67, EMC 27.57, EAT 25.94, DKS 41.93, SBUX 38.31. 3 week tight patterns are VIAB 47.97, WAT 90.33, BMC 51.33, TDC 51.47, RAX 44.29, QLIK 27.68, WCRX 24.43, MWV 32.34, TWC 73.33. Cup with handles are NBL 99.09, BG 74.50, CBS 26.27, ADSK 44.60, FDX 96.60, UNP 99.53, JWN 47.38. Double bottoms with handles are RHT 47.98, BLL 37.09, TROW 68.69, AMZN 188.37, AMX 59.50, CMI 113.75, RIO 75.09. Cup bases are PTEN 37.55, BGC 45.75, IL 30.41, PETM 43.49, BUD 64.87, ABV 32.10. Double bottoms are KLAC 48.19, EXPD 55.21, COH 56.81.

Stocks that can be purchased as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are APC 80.75, ACI 34.30, CHK 33.25, BTU 67.50, AGCO 53.80, ATML 13.95, AVGO 32.25, MSCC 21.65, SPRD 20.95, TXN 35.40, AMP 62.50, KSU 53.50, OMC 49.10, GR 86.50, EBAY 32.25, CMCSA 24.90. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs Friday were BHI XOM HAL PXD SM DD ATI YUM. Stocks near 50 day support are GPOR 30, IO 12, MRO 50.25, RDSA 71.15, SGY 29.25, WLL 66.75, CBE 64.25, JOYG 95, MTW 20.10, ROK 90, LYB 39, PPG 90, ABC 38.05, WLP 67.75, DE 92.50, DTV 45.50, ARW 40.95, CTXS 71, ORCL 32.75, VMW 83.25, ARMH 28.05, ALTR 41.90, SMTC 24, HON 57.25, ADS 81, BX 17.75, PAY 50.10, PLCM 48.40, ACN 53, FAST 63, EL 93, KBR 35, ARUN 30.40, SLW 41.10, ABX 51.10. Stocks which found good 50 day support weekly were CVX OIS EXXI PTEN SPN CAL CLF PLL EMN HS ALTR IP HON URI CSX EXPD. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were CPX MDR SOA ARBA CTSH BEAV FLIR APKT PAAS.

Stocks near 200 day support are CAM 48, NOG 22, PBR 36.20, TCK 48.30, RIG 68, WFT 19.75, AGU 82, MON 63.25, MOS 68.50, POT 50, APH 50.75, JBL 17, CY 16.05, NVLS 31.10, SWKS 25.50, XLNX 29, HOT 56, AAPL 310, JNPR 34.75, RVBD 30, MTL 27, ADM 32.50, TRW 48, FCX 48.25, VALE 32, IBN 47, BBD 19. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were MT X F ALV AMT, while NKE GOLD found 200 day resistance. BAC lost its 200 day on earnings Friday.

Stocks showing very good relative strength for the week were VPHM up 13%, TIBX 10%, MCP 10%, CHKP 5%, BUD 4%. Stocks hitting all time highs Friday were BBBY DECK INTU BWLD JBHT K.

Stocks showing weakness and which can be shorted at their 50 day MA are CXO 104.25, BEXP 34, CLR 67, DVN 89, FTI 46.50, NOV 78.75, OXY 101, SLB 90, VLO 28.50, AVT 34.25, LRCX 54, MXIM 26, VSEA 46.10, COF 51, GSM 22.05, WY 24, PAG 20, JPM 46, AEM 68.25. Stocks which can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CAT 104.25, PPO 53.50, UTX 82.40, BRKR 19.10. DVN FTI found 50 day resistance Friday. Recent uptrends which for the time look to have been broken are HES NOV VLO. Relative weakness was witnessed this week from FCX down 11%, RIG 5%, AAPL 2.25%.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets for a change finished on a somewhat positive note today. Down early on a weak jobless claims number, indexes fought back to basically unch by the close. Volume was not as upbeat as the moves on the indexes however. The S&P 500 found support near the big, round 1300 number and closed right at its 50 day MA. The Nazz also closed right at its 50 day MA. Leading stocks are acting decently, and we even saw a couple of well received IPOs today in ZIP ARCO. Silver and gold both were up sharply as the dollar hit another low for the year. Is this a correction in the bull that began in March of 09, or are we about to start a meaningful correction? I do not know, and no one knows. Thats why it pays to have both long and short opportunities to take advantage of. Another concern I have is the emergence of some defensive names that are behaving very well these days. They include KFT CLX SWY KR KO BUD PM. Not stellar growth names that push indicies higher. Energy which is currently the best performing sector looks like it could be undergoing a sector rotation. Many in the group have lost long term uptrend lines. They could recover and power ahead but lets let them prove themselves first. GOOG reported after the close, and took a 5% haircut. Tomorrow BAC reports tomorrow and we get economic reports on CPI, industrial production and consumer sentiment.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup with handles JWN 47.38, UNP 99.53, FDX 96.60, UPL 50.91, HK 25.25. Double bottom with handles are CHRW 76.15, AMX 59.50, TIF 63.95, AMZN 188.37, BLL 37.09, WCRX 24.43. Cup bases are BGC 45.75, A 46.91, IL 30.41, ABV 32.10. Flat bases are WMB 32.09, SWK 77.57. Double bottom is COH 56.81. Stocks displaying good relative strength today were OIS PTEN VPHM CHKP IRM GG MCP PRGO CHRW.

Stocks which can be bought if they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are APC 80.50, BHI 70.25, BEXP 34.40, CHK 33.25, XOM 84.45, FTI 47, HAL 47, MDR 24.30, BTU 67.75, PXD 100.25, SM 71, MSCC 21.75, TXN 35.25, YUM 51, DD 54.50. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Thursday were CPX JOYG BG PLCM EAT COH. Stocks near 50 day support are GPOR 30, TJX 50, IO 12, TWC 70.75, RDSA 71, KBR 35, WLT 125, SLW 41, WNR 16.60, RIO 70.10, WLL 66.50, BBD 19, CBE 64.25, CPO 49, PH 91, ROK 89.75, LYB 39, PPG 90, ABC 38, DTV 45.45, ARW 40.95, DHR 51, BRKR 19.30, ORCL 32.75, VRSN 36, ALTR 41.90, IP 28.15, MWV 29.75, ADS 81, BX 17.75, TDC 49, EXPD 50, ACN 53, IBM 162, FLIR 32.75, DKS 39, FAST 63, SBUX 34.75. Stocks that found 50 day support today were APKT CLF APA CVX COP EXXI IO MRO NBL OIS SPN CAT PLL EMN AET HS DE CBS ARBA ADSK BMC EMC CSX BEAV PETM VAL.

Stocks near 200 day support are CAM 48, NOG 22, PBR 36.20, TCK 48.20, WFT 19.60, MON 63.25, MOS 68.50, APH 50.60, JBL 17, ATML 10.30, CY 16.05, KLAC 38.20, LRCX 47, MXIM 22, NVLS 31.05, SWKS 25.55, XLNX 29, HOT 56, UPS 70, MT 34.30, MTL 26.95, GR 81.75, TRW 47.80, FCX 48.15. CRUS F X ALV VALE all found 200 day support today. GS lost its 200 day. Stocks that can be bought if they can reclaim their 200 day MA and their buy stop spots are NKE 81, GOLD 88.40.

Stocks which can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are CXO 104, NOV 78.50, SUN 43.50, VLO 28.50, AVGO 32, GSM 22, OMC 48.90, AAP 64.80, EBAY 32, AA 17, ADM 36.10. Stocks which can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are SOA 23.75, AMP 61, URI 31. Stocks which lost their 50 day MAs today were COF CNI GSM. Stocks which encountered 50 day resistance today were ACI XOM HAL SM RIG SPRD DD YUM URI CMI FCX JPM. Stocks which displayed relative weakness today were CLR NOG TCK PAAS PBR GS JPM.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Wednesday After Market

Markets were flat Wednesday with, the exception of the Nasdaq. Tech outperformed as RVBD gave an upbeat forecast. The Nasdaq was up 0.6% and regained its 50 day MA in the process. The S&P 500 closed right at its 50 day MA. Volume was lower, as that has been the trend recently. Again though markets ended the day in the lower half of their trading ranges for the day. More importantly leading stocks behaved well today. The beige book was upbeat and seemed to give the indexes a bid. Some retail stocks were up today on good retail sales such as COH DECK LULU. JPM traced an outside reversal day after signaling a dividend hike was not going to be soon. Tomorrow we hear earning reports from CHKP FCS before the open and GOOG after the close. Before the open we also will hear about jobless claims and PPI.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Double bottoms are WCRX 24.43, RHT 47.98, BLL 37.09, AMZN 188.37, TIF 63.95, AMX 59.50, CMI 113.75. Cup with handles are HK 25.25, ADSK 44.60, DFS 25.09, UNP 99.53, DECK 92.87. Cup bases are IL 30.41, VRSN 37.67, BUD 64.87. Flat bases are A 46.91, EMC 27.69, VFC 100.34. Double bottoms are VMW 91.78, ARMH 31.43, COH 58.38. 3 weeks tight is CBI 42.59. Stocks that showed good relative strength today were INFA ACN PRGO IL. Stocks holding recent gap ups for 4 consecutive days which is very bullish are BBBY EXPR GG. TPX will be there tomorrow if it can hold that gap up one more day.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CHK 33.25, MDR 24.25, JOYG 96, F 15.25, EAT 24.40, SPRD 21.25. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were ARBA PLCM EMC ARUN. Stocks near 50 day support are CX 102.25, NBR 28, RDSA 71, SGY 29, WLL 66.25, WMB 29.90, CAT 105, CBE 64.25, BGC 43, MTW 20.10, PLL 56, ROK 89.25, CBG 26, LYB 38.80, SOA 24, AET 37, ABC 38, WLP 67.50, CBS 23.45, ARW 40.90, DHR 51, BRKR 19.20, BMC 49, ORCL 32.75, NXPI 29, SMTC 24, MWV 29.60, ADS 81, COF 50.90, TDC 49, EXPD 50, ADP 50.15, CTSH 77.70, FLIR 32.85, DKS 39, FAST 63, JWN 44.50, SBUX 34.70, TJX 50, KBR 35, SLW 41, ABX 51, RIO 70.10, BBD 19, CPO 49. Stocks that found 50 day support today were APA COP IO EXXI
MRO NBL OIS PTEN SPN WMB HS BG DE CRM ALTR UTX TROW CSX PETM CLF.

Stocks near 200 day support are NOG 22, PBR 36.20, TCK 48.20, WFT 19.55, JBL 17, CY 16, KLAC 38, LRCX 47, MSCC 20, NVLS 31, SWKS 25.50, XLNX 29, HOT 56, MT 34.25, MTL 26.90, NUE 42, EBAY 28, WY 19, FCX 48.10, GS 158, VALE 32. CRUS X ALV found 200 day support while BAC lost 200 day support today.

Stocks which can be shorted at 50 day resistance are CXO 104, APC 80, ACI 34, BHI 70, DVN 89.50, XOM 84, HAL 46.50, NOV 78.50, BTU 67.50, RIG 80.25, VLO 28.50, DOV 65, DOW 37.15, TTMI 17.50, ATML 13.85, MXIM 26, KSU 53.10, OMC 48.95, YUM 50.75, ADM 36.15, BWA 76, AA 17. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MA and their sell stop spots are EMN 94.50, HON 56.60, UTX 82.80, AMP 61.30, URI 30.90, WDR 39.25, CNI 72.30, JPM 45.40. 50 day resistance was met today by CHK PXD SM SU RIG DOV AVGO TXN DD UPS ATI MT AA GSM. AAP FCX CMCSA all lost their 50 day MAs today. HES PBR SLB TCK all showed relative weakness today.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets fell Tuesday pretty hard but managed to finish off their lows. Volume came in above average on the S&P 500 and lower on the Nazz. The Nasdaq finished below its 50 day MA while the S&P 500 finished right at it. Leading stocks once again had mixed results. Stocks in the energy sector really sold off. Some looking as if their uptrend have changed. CXO PXD for example. Goldman lowered its oil price forecast and the sector plunged. Others like BIDU sold off as well. Some retail stocks powered ahead such as COH TPX NFLX LULU despite the market weakness. Stocks that show strength in the midst off a market correction are usually the first ones to power forward once the uptrend resumes. SDS and VXX both are pushing up against long term resistance levels. Lets see if they can break their downtrends in the coming days. Earnings due out tomorrow are ADTN ASML JPM all before the open and economic reports include beige book, retail sales and business inventories.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Flat bases VRSN 37.67, VFC 100.34. Double bottoms are VMW 91.78, FCS 19.60. Cup with handle is COF 52.97. Double bottom with handle is AMX 59.50.

Stocks near 50 day support are CVX 102.25, GPOR 30, IO 11.95, NBR 28, HK 21.95, RDSA 71, SGY 28.75, WLT 125, WNR 16.40, WLL 68.25, CBE 64.20, BGC 43, MTW 20, PLL 56, ROK 89, CBG 26, LYB 38.75, PX 98.25, ABC 38, HS 36.25, VPHM 18.10, WLP 67.50, CBS 23.30, DTV 45.25, A 44, ARW 40.85, DHR 51, BRKR 19.15, WAT 83.75, BMC 49.45, CTXS 70.20, IL 26.75, ORCL 32.70, NXPI 28.95, SMTC 24, WYNN 125, IP 28.20, EXPD 50, FLIR 32.80, AMZN 176, DKS 39, FAST 63, JWN 44.40, SBUX 34.50, WFMI 60, CROX 17.90, SLW 40.75, ABX 51, PAAS 37, RIO 70.15. Stocks that found 50 day support today were APA COP EXXI MRO OIS PTEN WMB PPO AET WCRX BG DE CRM ALTR NFLX BLL HON BX COF TROW CSX EXPD FDX IBM CMI CLF FCX. UNP reclaimed its 50 day MA.

Stocks near 200 day support are CAM 47.50, NOG 22, OXY 89, PBR 36.20, TCK 48.25, WFT 19.50, APH 50.50, JBL 16.95, CY 16, KLAC 38, MXIM 22, MSCC 20, NVLS 31, SNDK 44, SWKS 25.50, XLNX 29, HOT 55.85, JNPR 34.40, RVBD 29.75, MT 34.25, MTL 26.75, NUE 42, X here, GR 81.25, EBAY 27.95, SHLD 73, QCOM 47.50, TRW 47.50, GS 158, VALE 31.95. F BAC both found 200 day support today. CRUS ALV both lost their 200 day MAs today. BRCM RIMM are both falling further below their 200 day MAs.

Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are GSM 21.45, PETM 41, TIF 60.75, CLF 92, DECK 84.60, FTO 27, MRO 49.30, NBL 90.50, PTEN 26.75, CAT 104.50, EMN 94.50, SOA 23.75, DE 92.50, ADSK 41.70, HON 57, UTX 83, AMP 61.40, URI 31.05, WDR 39.25, CSX 74.25. CXO had a bad break below its 50 day MA today. First time that has happened in almost one year. Could be a trend changer for that stock. Others that lost their 50 day MAs today were APC BEXP CHK CPX CLR DVN XOM FTI HAL MDR PBR PXD SM SU SUN TCK RIG JOYG DOW ARBA AVGO DD MT OMC AA APKT ARUN. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day MA resistance are VLO 28.50, AVT 34.50, ARBA 31.10, ASML 43.20, LRCX 54, TXN 35, VSEA 46.25, EMC 26.50, PLCM 48, EAT 24.10, YUM 50.50. More evidence of the weakness in the market can be calculated by the number of leading stocks which have fallen back below their break out buy points. They include CE APA BHI HAL BTU JOYG LYB SOA DE ARW.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets finished lower Monday after starting the day higher continuing a bearish trend of sturdy openings and weak closes. The difference today was that the move came in strong volume, especially on the Nasdaq. Not on did tech under perform but many stocks in the leading energy group lost their key 50 day MAs. Add to that, that Mondays have been strong days and there is a feeling that the market could be heading lower at least in the short term. Even M&A activity failed to cheer the indexes up. When good news is interpreted as bad by the marktes, weakness usually follow. That being said the Nasdaq did find support at its 50 day MA. The S&P 500 is still above that key MA. Earnings season began today and AA, reported after the close falling 3% on a revenue miss. Tomorrow FAST reports before the bell and we get same store sales estimates from the ICSC- Goldman index.

Stocks near specific buy points include BGC 45.75 in a cup base. Flat bases are PETM 43.49, VFC 100.34. Double bottom with handles are WCRX 24.43, CMI 113.75. VALE 35.70 in a double bottom base. Buys should be done cautiously here in this weakening environment. Demand strong volume on the breakout. If you have winners you may not want to wait until they turn into losers here.

Stocks near 50 day support are APA 122, APC 80, CHK 32.90, CLR 66.50, XOM 84, FTI 46.60, MRO 50, MDR 24, NBL 92, OIS 73, PTEN 27, HK 21.90, PBR 39.25, PXD 99.25, SM 70, SU 44.25, SUN 43.50, WNR 16.20, WMB 29.70, CAT 105, MTW 20, PLL 56, ROK 89, CBG 25.90, EMN 95, SOA 24, VPHM 18.10, BG 71, DE 92.50, CBS 23.20, A 43.95, DHR 50.95, BRKR 19.15, ADSK 42, BMC 49.30, ORCL 32.75, RHT 43.05, TIBX 25.10, ARMH 28.05, ALTR 41.60, PAY 49.30, CSX 75, IBM 162, FLIR 32.70, JWN 44.30, SBUX 34.50, KBR 35, CLF 93, JPM 46, AA 17 (had earnings after the close). Stocks that found 50 day support today were BEXP HAL TCK JOYG AET AVGO TXN ELL EXPD MT AAP TIF APKT. Stocks which can be bought if they can retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are VMW 84.25, ASML 43.40, SPRD 21.20, EMC 26.60.

Stocks near 200 day support are NOG 22, WFT 19.50, APH 50.50, JBL 16.90, CY 16, KLAC 38, MSCC 20, NVLS 31, SWKS 25.50, XLNX 29, RVBD 29.85, MTL 26.60, X 50.25, GR 81.50, COH 48.50, ALV 69.50, TRW 47.50, BAC 13.40. HOT found 200 day support today while GOLD found 200 day resistance. BRCM lost its 200 day today which normally leads to further weakness. MS was a poor relative performer in the bank sector and can be shorted if it loses its 200 day MA. Put in your sell stop at 26.60.

Stocks which can be shorted if they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are SPN 37.75, JOYG 95, DOW 37, ARBA 30.75, VRSN 35.70, DD 53.70, AMP 61.70, URI 31.20, GSM 21.65, DECK 84.50, ARUN 29.50. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day MA resistance are AVT 34.50, ATML 13.70, LRCX 54, MXIM 26, VSEA 46.10, PLCM 48, EAT 24, EBAY 32.10, QCOM 55.50, WY 24.30, BWA 76. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today, obvioulsy a bearish sign, and can be shorted if they rally to their 50 day MA and fail are CXO ACI BHI DVN HES NOV OXY BTU SLB VLO DOV AGCO AGU TTMI VSEA EAT.

Good luck.

We sold our FCX this morning as it was positive. Still lost about 80 cents on the trade overall though.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets Friday again looked to be loping around. A closer looked revealed some continuing concerns. The Nasdaq itself has been having trouble with the 2800 level. 5 of the last 6 days the index has been above that 2800 level intraday only to finish below it. Indexes have been opening on their highs and closing near their lows. Classic bearish behavior. That being said volume came in well below average. Leading stocks, the real barometer to gauge the health of the market, have been giving conflicting signals. Stocks like WLT LULU ANF CE INFA TIBX UA all remain slightly above their recent breakout points, while CAVM CMG HAL HS hover just below theirs. Stocks hitting all time highs Friday were APC BKE CVX RDSA BHP PAAS TPX LYB TSCO. Gold hit a record high Friday and oil spiked up more than 2%. Silver climbed almost 3%. Gold and silver miners obviously outperformed Friday, while steel, transports and semis were weak. SMH flirted with taking out its 50 day MA resistance, but closed below it once again. Bull/bear surveys remain near elevated levels, which could cause some short term weakness. This bull which commenced in March 2009, is not long in the tooth and plenty of gains can lie ahead, but a short term correction could be just what the doctor ordered. AA kicks off the traditional opening of earnings season after the bell Monday.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Double bottoms ARMH 31.43, FCS 19.60, AEM 76.59, VALE 34.99, AMZN 191.50, LVS 50.75, EXPD 55.21, BGC 44.85. Double bottoms with handles are CMI 113.75, ETN 56.52, RHT 47.98, WCRX 24.43. Flat bases are NOV 82.90, CXO 110.99, WMB 31.99, TDC 51.50, PETM 43.49, AMP 65.22. Cup with handles are DVN 93.66, XOM 88.33, INTU 54.33, MMC 31.18. Cup bases are AVGO 34.69, ABV 32.10, BBD 22.64. 3 week tight pattern is CBI 42.59.

Stocks which can be bought if they can retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are SPRD 20.60, TXN 35.60, LDK 12.85, SCCO 42.25, VMW 84.25, IVZ 26.25. PMTC retook its 50 day Friday. Stocks near 50 day support are PAG 19.50, ARMH 28, ALTR 41.50, MCHP 37.05, MT 36.10, GSM 22, RS 55.50, A 43.90, DHR 50.40, WAT 83, CAT 105, CBE 64.10, JOYG 95, PLL 56, ROK 88, APC 80, FTI 46.25, BHI 70, BEXP 34, CNQ 47.80, COP 77, HAL 46.25, NBL 91.75, PTEN 26.90, BTU 67, PBR 39, PXD 99.25, CLR 66, RDC 40.25, TCK 56, MRO 50, CLF 93, UA 67, DKS 38.50, DE 92.50, ARUN 29.80, HS 36, EL 92, MCD 75, JWN 44, PETM 41.10, SBUX 34.20, WFMI 60, DD 54, EMN 95, PX 98, NFLX 220, BX 17.60, KKR 16.85, CTSH 77, ADP 50, KBR 34.50, BMC 49.20, ORCL 32.55, TIBX 25, CTXS 70, CHRW 73.25, CSX 75, CNI 72.25, EXPD 50, JPM 46, WDR 39.75, PAY 49, TTMI 17.20, BEAV 36, CVLT 36, APKT 71, MTW 20, HON 57, ROC 47, CBI 37, IT 38.50, WLP 67, CBS 23, DTV 45.

Stocks near 200 day support are ALV 69.25, LLTC 32.50, MSCC 20, NVLS 31, NVDA 15, SWKS 25.50, X 50.10, TEL 31.90, WFT 19.50, APH 50.10, COH 48.10, SHLD 73, AAPL 309, JNPR 34.20, RVBD 29.75, MON 62.50, GOOG 560, RCL 38, LEN 17, FDX 88, GLW 19.05, FNSR 23, CRUS 18, GR 81, MOLX 22.50. Stocks which found support at their 200 day MAs Friday were MGA BRCM JKS SCCO BAC AMT. ROVI encountered 200 day resistance. CCL MAR are falling further below their 200 day MAs. Stocks that can be shorted if they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are HOT 55.40, MS 26.70.

Stocks that can be shorted if they pierce their 50 day MAs to the downside and their sell stop spots are ALV 69, BWA 74, TKR 49.50, DOV 64.25, HES 82.25, MDR 23.50, SLB 89.70, SUN 43, VLO 27.55, ATW 43.60, FWLT 35.75, RL 121.50, ROST 69.50, TIF 60.75, URI 31, SWK 74, ADSK 41.50, CHKP 49, VRSN 35.50, UNP 94.25, RJF 37.10, TER 17.50, ARBA 30.50, CCK 37.50, WBC 59.50, AET 36.10. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are TRW 57, ADI 39.40, ATML 13.95, CY 20.85, LLTC 34.05, JBL 21, CAM 58, EMR 59.50, EMC 26.50, PLCM 47.75, ADM 36, TEX 35.90, EBAY 32, YUM 50.50, DIS 42.30, PAYX 32.55, WY 24.10, KSU 53, LAZ 43.25, QCOM 55.50, XLNX 33, ASML 43.10. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were ATI MTL NUE AVT RIG PLCM ADM VSEA EAT AGCO POT TEX FLR WY FDX KSU UPS GS SNDK. Stocks which found 50 day resistance Friday were LRCX ADI MSCC EMC EBAY DIS VMW LAZ ASML GR WU.

Good luck.

We reentered FCX at 58.06 Friday. Of course it closed below that price Friday as it fell late in the day. I am concerned that it has closed weakly both Wednesday and Friday, amid record high gold prices and copper strength. JJC is nearing all time highs here.

The author owns FCX TTM RAX F.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets closed basically flat Thursday. Concerns over another 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Japan affected indexes, but they rallied back from the lows. Retail performed nicely as same store chain sales for the most part exceeded forecasts. Leading stocks were quiet Thursday with some still hovering just below their former buy points. These include DE JOYG HAL. Others like INFA LULU OPEN still remain above buy points. Chips were weak as once again you guessed it. SMH found resistance once again right at its 50 day MA. The more that line is bumped up against, the more likely it is it burst through it. But wait for it to be confirmed. Put in your buy stop at 35.40. AAPL continues to languish below its 50 day MA for the time being, as the Nasdaq continues to have difficulty closing above the 2800 level. The S&P 500 is nearing its cup with handle buy point at 1344. Not much in the way of economic reports or earnings, however AA kicks off the new earnings season on Monday after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points include AGCO 56.13 in a double bottom with handle base. Double bottoms without handles are R 52.31, STT 47.90, BEAV 39.05. Cup bases are TYC 47.43, WDR 42.30, BBD 22.64. Flat bases are AMP 65.22, VRSN 37.67. Cup with handles are NCR 20.72, MMC 31.18. LTD broke out Thursday from a 35.58 cup base buy point.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are LLTC 34.30, MSCC 21.80, TXN 35.40, LAZ 43.60, GR 88. Stocks which retook their 50 day MAs Thursday were AVT GS IL. Stocks near 50 day support are ARMH 28, ALTR 41.40, AVGO 31.75, FCS 18.10, MCHP 37.05, MT 36.20, GSM 21.90, A 43.60, DHR 50.50, CBE 64, DOV 65.10, JOYG 94.50, APC 80, FTI 46.25, CNQ 47.50, CHK 32.60, DVN 89.60, HAL 46.25, NBL 92, PTEN 26.85, BTU 66.80, PBR 39.05, CLR 66.25, RDC 40.50, SLB 90.25, SUN 43.05, TCK 56, WMB 29.50, RIO 70, SWC 23, CBG 25.55, CBS 23, DTV 45, ETN 54, BLL 35.95, RL 122, TPX 48, DKS 38.75, TDC 48.25, EL 92, MCD 75.15, SBUX 34.25, DD 53.90, LVS 44, WYN 31, KKR 16.75, URI 31.30, IBM 162, SWK 74.50, ADSK 42, BMC 49.20, ORCL 32.55, RHT 43, TIBX 25, CHRW 73.75, EXPD 50, JPM 46, PAY 49, TER 17.95, CVLT 36, ARBA 31, APKT 70, BGC 42.50, WLP 67, HS 36, AET 36.85. Stocks which found 50 day support Thursday were BWA BP OXY SU VALE ADM AGU POT ARUN OMC CRM KSU UNP UPS RJF SNDK VSEA WCRX CMCSA.

Stocks near 200 day support are ALV 69, MGA 46.50, SWKS 25.25, X 50.10, JKS 24.75, APH 50.15, COH 48.15, RVBD 29.40, YUM 47.50, RCL 38, HOT 55.60, BAC 13.40, XLNX 29, CRUS 18, AMT 50.10. BRCM found 200 day support Thursday, while RIMM found 200 day resistance. SCCO ROVI both lost their 200 day MAs Thursday. As evidenced recently by HPQ NTAP TGT, when you lose your 200 day MA it usually is not a bullish action.

Stocks looking weak and which can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are BWA 75, CXO 102.25, BHI 69.50, HES 82.50, VLO 27.90, ATW 43.50, CPX 28.10, PLCM 47.60, ROST 70, HON 56.75. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are ATML 13.90, JBL 21, EMC 26.50, PAYX 32.55, ADTN 44, SYK 61.10. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Thursday were ALV TEX DIS WY ASML. Stocks that encountered 50 day resistance Thursday were ADI MXIM EBAY YUM PAYX PMTC GR. Stocks showing relative weakness Thursday were KLAC LRCX NVLS SWKS NFLX.

Good luck.

We sold FCX yesterday as it looked like for a second day it would reverse lower. I was faked out. We did make $2.50 on the trade, but as gold trades at another record high and copper strong as I write Friday morning, I was wrong. I will look to reenter today as near to its 57.74 double bottom buy point.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Wednesday Recap

Markets from the outside looked to have a decent day. A mid day rally off the lows in decent volume. But a look under the hood and you will find poor action from leading stocks. OPEN had a nasty reversal from an all time high for example. Stocks such as WLT JOYG DE all of which have recently broke out closed slightly below their break out buy points. Not that this is uncommon, but it is certainly not welcome. And worse off was the days best performing sectors hailed from recent laggards. Banks and chips were strong. China raised interest rates, talks of interest rates here at home, and fears of a government shutdown are hanging over the market here. Energy stocks had plenty of reversals and the sector as a whole performed poorly. The Nasdaq has now had problems closing above the 2800 level since 2/22. It has knocked on that 2800 door 9 times since then. The market does seem to be stalling here as the new earnings season kicks in next week. Today MON had a negative reaction to its earnings report. Much like MOS last week. BBBY screamed higher after hours on a good earnings forecast. Nothing in the way of earnings tomorrow, and Thursday brings up jobless claims and chain store sales.

Stocks near specific buy points are SWN 44.06 in a cup with handle pattern. PETM 43.49 in a square box pattern. VRSN 37.67 in a flat base. Double bottoms are TAP 48.51, PMTC 24.53, CHRW 78.74. Cup bases are AAP 69.61, DD 56.29, LTD 35.58.

Stocks that can be bought if they can reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are LLTC 34.30, MXIM 26.30, MSCC 21.90, TXN 35.35, AVT 34.85, LDK 12.85, GS 162.60, LAZ 43.50. PMTC reclaimed its 50 day MA Wednesday. Stocks near 50 day support are BWA 75.50, ARMH 28, ALTR 41.25, FCS 18.10, LRCX 54, MCHP 37.05, ATI 65.75, MTL 30.80, NUE 47, A 43.55, DHR 50.50, DOV 65, JOYG 94, ROK 88, APC 79.75, FTI 46.25, BEXP 33.50, CHK 32.50, COP 76, DVN 89.50, XOM 83.75, HAL 46.25, MDR 23.60, PTEN 26.75, BTU 66.75, PBR 39, PXD 98, CLR 66.20, RDC 40.20, SLB 90, TCK 56, SPN 37.50, COF 50.50, CVLT 36, ARBA 31, ASML 43.15, BGC 42.25, HON 57.05, WLP 67, AET 36.65, CBS 23, CMCSA 24.50, ATW 44, WMB 29.40, OIS 72, SWC 23, ETN 54, SCCO 39.50, BLL 35.95, RL 122, TPX 48, TDC 48.10, ADM 36, AGCO 53, AGU 92, POT 58.50, ARUN 29, EL 91.95, JWN 44, ROST 70.10, SBUX 34.20, TIF 61.25, EMN 95, SOA 24, LVS 44, KKR 16.60, IBM 162, SWK 74.30, ADSK 42, ORCL 32.35, RHT 43, CTXS 69.80, CSX 74.50, EXPD 50, UPS 73.50, UNP 95.85. Stocks that found 50 day support Thursday were AVGO FCS CXO BP VALE DIS KSU MMC TER.

Stocks near 200 day support are MGA 46.50, NVDA 15, SWKS 25.20, X 50.10, TEL 31.70, JKS 24.50, APH 50.15, RVBD 29.60, GOOG 560, HOT 55.50, LEN 16.80, GLW 19.05, CRUS 18, AMT 50.10. Stocks that found 200 day support Thursday were ROVI BAC MS FNSR. RIMM found 200 day resistance today.

Stocks showing good relative strength today were ANF ADP NXPI BEAV. RDSA was a strong out performer in a weak energy group. BHP RIO also demonstrated good action Thursday among their peers. Stocks that should be put on a watch list as they build the right side of their bases are BUD ABV BBD TTM.

Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are ADI 39.35, ATML 13.95, KLAC 47, NVLS 38, JBL 21, CAM 58, EMR 59.25, COH 54.20, EMC 26.50, PAYX 32.55, XLNX 33, ADTN 44, SYK 61.05. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs to the downside and their sell stop spots are ALV 74, CXO 102, BHI 69.50, HES 82, NOV 77.75, OXY 100, SU 43.75, CPX 28.10, PLCM 47.50, AMP 61, WY 24, CCK 37.40. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Thursday were MON (earnings), MOS CRM IL. Stocks that found 50 day resistance today were WFT EMR EBAY LAZ GR. Bearish outside reversals Thursday included DNR FTO MCP FWLT OPEN TEX.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX TTM RAX F.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Stocks yawned today for the second day in a row. In fact, the S&P 500 has closed at the 1332 level for 3 straight days now. The Nasdaq has closed within a 2 point range for the last 3 days. Volume came in below average once again. Indexes were higher for most of the day until the Fed minutes were released suggesting potential interest rate hikes to combat inflation. The days winner therefore were the precious metals and retail. Chip makers were given a boost after the TXN announcement last evening. Leading stocks are behaving well, a strong barometer for the health of the general market. Today ANF and SQM joined the breakout list. More importantly, recent breakouts which stubbornly remain above their break out buy points include INFA HS CE HAS LUUL TIBX MWV MELI. Some others including CMG WLT RL LYB all broke out today but volume was weak. Many energy stocks have been trading tightly, bullish action, and are carving potential 3 week tight patterns if that trend continues to the end of the week. Stocks hitting all time highs today were WAT PLL CVX OKE OIS DKS ROST ROC TJX. Earnings reports come from MON before the open and BBBY after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Double bottoms are ALV 79.00, TRW 60.40, MT 37.57, FCX 57.74, VALE 35.70, AGU 97.98, AMZN 191.50, ORLY 59.45, TIF 65.29. Cup with handles are SLB 95.74, ATI 69.85, ADM 38.12, ARW 43.00. Cup bases are AAP 69.61, LTD 35.58, DD 56.29, FWLT 39.85. Flat bases are BMC 51.13, VRSN 37.67, TJX 51.21. 3 week tight is WY 25.25. 4 week tight is JPM 47.28. Square box base is A 46.91.

Stocks that can be bought if they reclaim their 50 day MAs and the buy stop spots are RIG 81.50, LDK 12.75, EMR 59.70, COH 54.35, GR 88, GS 162.40. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs today were FCS NUE BP SWC LVS BEAV SNDK. TCK had a strong follow through after reclaiming its 50 day yesterday. Stocks near 50 day support are PAG 19.50, ARMH 27.90, ALTR 41.10, LRCX 54, MTL 30.95, DHR 50.40, DOV 64.90, CXO 103, APC 79.50, BHI 70, CHK 32.30, DVN 89, HES 82.80, MDR 23.50, NOV 78, OXY 100.75, PBR 39, SU 44, ATW 44, RDSA 70.75, DNR 23, WMB 29.25, RIO 70, ETN 54, BLL 35.90, TDC 48, AGCO 53, MON 71.95, MOS 82, POT 58.50, ARUN 29, EL 91.50, MCD 75.10, JWN 44, PETM 41, IBM 162, OMC 48.30, SWK 74.35, ADSK 42, CHKP 49, ORCL 32.50, CSX 74.30, CNI 72, KSU 53, UNP 95.80, STT 45.10, RJF 37.50, COF 50.50, WDR 39.20, ARBA 31, ASML 43.05, MMC 29.50, VSEA 46, BGC 42.10, HON 57, WLP 67, AET 36.60, WCRX 23.50, CMCSA 24.50. Stocks that found 50 day support today were ALV AVGO BBBY DIS TROW CRM EXPD TER TTWO APKT.

Stocks near 200 day support are MGA 46.40, LLTC 32.50, MSCC 19.90, NVDA 15, SPRD 15.50, APH 50.10, SCCO 39.30, RVBD 29.60, GOOG 560, YUM 47.30, RCL 37.75, HOT 55.50, TAP 46.90, LEN 16.75, MS 26.75, QCOM 47, CRUS 18, AMT 50. Stocks that received 200 day support today were JKS ROVI BAC GS FNSR.

Stocks which can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are ADI 39.20, ATML 13.95, MXIM 26.10, TEL 35.75, CAM 58, AEM 69.50, EMC 26.50, JNPR 41.50, PAYX 32.55, LAZ 43.15, XLNX 33, ADTN 44. Stocks which can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are PLCM 47.50, AMP 61.30, FISV 61.10, CCK 37.25, IL 25.50. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were WFT YUM SYK. 50 day resistance was encountered today by KLAC JBL EMR PMTC GR.

Good luck. Go Mets!!

The author owns FCX TTM RAX F.

Mid Day Thoughts

CMG breaks out of 275.10 cup base buy point. CAVM break out of 46.08 double bottom base. WLT breaking out of 140.06 cup base. Leading stocks strong here. SNDK EBAY SWC reclaiming their 50 day MAs here.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets did basically nothing Monday and volume did the same. It was soft. Perhaps indexes are resting and consolidating after a strong 2 weeks. Leading stocks continued to act in a healthy manner. BHP TPX OPEN BIDU all hit all time highs today. LULU continues to hover over its recent breakout buy point stubbornly. UA, HS continue to pack on more gains as well, after last Fridays breakouts. CE broke out from a cup base today. Both WNR BWA broke out above buy points but lacked the volume to be considered legitimate. On the downside AAPL continues to lag, and then semis are being battered around repeatedly. After the close TXN did mention they will acquire NSM at a very rich 78% premium. Lets see how the market greets the news tomorrow. Not much on the earnings front to report of tomorrow.

Stocks near specific buy points include double bottoms TRW 60.40, CAVM 46.08, FCX 57.74, VALE 36.60, BLL 36.54, COH 57.71, AGU 97.98, MON 74.53, SQM 58.01, POT 62.45, AMZN 191.50, ORLY 59.45, TIF 65.29, TAP 48.51, PMTC 24.53, CHRW 78.74, IBN 51.61. Flat bases are CXO 110.99, RL 128.66, SWK 77.57, BMC 51.13, VRSN 37.67, RJF 39.78, MMC 31.18. Cup bases are MTL 34.73, WLT 140.06, FWLT 39.85, DD 56.29, UNP 99.60, BBD 22.64. Cup with handles are ATI 69.85, ADM 38.12, ARW 43.00. WY 25.25 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. LYB 41.22 in a square box base.

Stocks that can be bought through their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are TRW 57.75, JBL 21.05, BP 46.85, SWC 23.50, EMR 59.50, EBAY 32.25, LVS 44.50, PMTC 23.20, GR 88, SNDK 47.75. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Monday were APKT MOS ALV F MT TCK VALE. Stocks near 50 day support are PAG 19.40, ALTR 41, LRCX 54, MCHP 37, A 43.50, DHR 50.20, DOV 64.50, APC 79.25, BHI 69.50, CNQ 47.10, CHK 32.10, COP 76, DVN 89, XOM 83.25, HAL 46, MDR 23.50, NOV 78, OXY 100.75, SLB 90, SU 43.90, ABX 50.15, DKS 38.25, TDC 48, TEX 35.70, COST 73, JWN 44, YUM 50.20, DIS 42.10, AMP 62, BX 17.20, KKR 16.55, IBM 162, SWK 74.25, ADSK 41.95, EXPD 50, KSU 53, STT 45.30, WDR 39, ASML 43, NCR 18.50, CCK 37.50, BGC 42, HON 57, AET 36.50, WCRX 23.50, CBS 23, IVZ 25.75, CMCSA 24.50. Stocks that found 50 day support today were ARMH WFT PLCM BBBY PETM TER BEAV TTWO VSEA TJX SYK.

Stocks near 200 day support are CY 15.80, LLTC 32.50, MSCC 19.80, NVDA 15, X 50, JKS 24.50, APH 50.10, LDK 10.10, SCCO 39.10, RVBD 29, RCL 37.75, HOT 55.25, LEN 16.75, GS 157, IBN 45.95, CRUS 18, MS 26.75. ROVI BAC FNSR all found 200 day support Monday.
RIMM lost its 200 day MA today. HPQ NTAP MAR VMW all are falling further below their 200 day MAs today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are ADI 39.30, ATML 14, KLAC 46.75, MXIM 26.20, TEL 35.85, CAM 58, RIO 80.25, XLNX 33, ADTN 44. AMT EMR LVS all found 50 day resistance today. ADI AVGO FCS KLAC EMC JNPR LLL all fell below their 50 day MAs today.

Regarding the semis, in the aftermath of TXNs announcement after hours, who knows if it will signal a change of heart among the group. If they shall try to reassume leadership again look for the stocks that held up well in the face of the sector selloff. About 20% of all the semis I look at on a daily basis have held above their 50 day MAs. They include ALTR ARMH CAVM LRCX MCHP TER ASML NXPI. Look for them to show vigor, IF they become a strong group once again.

We bought F as it reclaimed its 50 day MA right here. Back on the "Mullaly Express".

Good luck.

The author owns FCX TTM RAX F.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets Friday started nicely after a positive jobs report (216K private sector jobs were created), but then surrendered about half of their gains by the close. Volume rose on the Nasdaq but fell on the S&P 500. For the week the Nasdaq was up 1.7%, and the S&P 500 up 1.4%. The S&P 600 outperformed for the week with a 2.7% gain. Maybe small cap leadership is about to emerge? On the weekly chart the S&P 500 is forming a cup with handle pattern with a buy point just over 1344. The Nasdaq also is developing that pattern as well with a buy point just over 2840. The continuous stream of leading stocks breaking out, and others setting up buy points has for the time being stamped out the correction phase the market needed. Friday a number of leaders broke out including UA, from a 70.79 flat base buy point. JOYG from a 100.68 cup base buy point. DE HS MWV all broke out Friday in healthy volume. The concerns the market has is in its general AAPL, which lost its 50 day MA Friday. It has struggled with its 50 day moving average ever since closing below it on 3/15. Add to that the chip space weakness, (SMH has not been able to reclaim its 50 day MA after trying almost everyday last week) and maybe it has to be interpreted that the Nasdaq rolls along without AAPL and the semiconductors. SCHN reports after the close Monday and not much to speak of on the economic front.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup bases TEN 46.91, MTL 34.73, RS 60.05, DOV 68.17, HES 87.50, WLT 140.06, WNR 18.38, MCP 62.90, FWLT 39.85, CMG 275.10, CE 45.52, DD 56.29, ABV 32.10, INTU 54.78, UNP 99.60, KSU 57.08, BBD 22.64, WDR 42.30, COF 53.08, WBC 65.63, CMCSA 26.01. Double bottom bases are CMI 114.40, TRW 60.40, ADI 41.09, CAVM 46.08, FCS 19.60, FCX 57.74, RIO 71.80, ETN 56.31, BLL 36.54, AGU 97.98, MON 74.53, SQM 58.01, AMZN 191.50, ORLY 59.45, TIF 65.29, EXPD 55.21, IBN 51.61, QLIK 27.30. Flat bases are MMC 31.18, BWA 81.17, CXO 110.99, OXY 107.66, ATW 46.64, RL 128.66, EMC 27.57, AMP 65.22, OMC 51.35, BMC 51.13, RJF 39.78. Cup with handles are ATI 69.85, SLB 95.74, ADM 38.12. 3 week tight pattern is WY 25.25. LYB 41.22 square box base. Plenty of set up buy points here. Bullish indeed.

Stocks that hit all time highs Friday were CBE CAT JOYG PH ROK SM BHP UA TSCO ROC BIDU. Stocks near "par" or 100, quite often continue to power ahead once it crosses that triple digit price level. So it bears to keep a close eye on stocks near that 100 handle. They include PH ROK DVN NBL SLB BHP CLF DE FOSL EL PPG UNP. Stocks which have recently risen above par are JOYG PXD OXY OPEN EMN PX.

Stocks which can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are ALV 75.25, F 15.55, MXIM 26.50, TCK 56.50, VALE 34.10, SWC 23.55, EMR 59.60, COH 54.50, MOS 82.60, GOOG 602, EBAY 32.30, LVS 44.65, GR 88, PMTC 23.15. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were WFT AMP AMTD TROW AMT IVZ CHRW EXPD STT BEAV WCRX. Stocks near 50 day support and their prices are PAG 19.25, ALTR 41, LRCX 54, MCHP 37, GSM 21.25, A 43.70, DHR 50, VSH 17.30, PLL 54.50, APC 79.75, BHI 69, CHK 32, COP 75, DVN 88.50, XOM 83, HAL 46, MDR 23.20, NOV 77.70, NBL 91, SU 43.75, VLO 28, DNR 22.50, WMB 29, AA 16.85, ABX 50, PAAS 36, TPX 47.50, DKS 38, PLCM 47.75, TDC 48, POT 58.50, AAP 64, BBBY 48, MCD 75, JWN 44, ROST 70, YUM 50.15, DIS 42, BX 17.20, SWK 74, ARW 40, TER 17.70, NXPI 28, VSEA 46, HON 56.80, AET 36.30, CBS 22.90. Stocks that found support at their 50 day MAs Friday were ARMH AVGO KLAC RIO EMC SYK JNPR KKR.

Stocks near 200 day support are MGA 46.50, LLTC 32.45, MSCC 19.80, SPRD 15.50, X 50, AVT 30.10, BP 42, JKS 23.90, APH 50, LDK 10.10, SCCO 39.40, RVBD 29, HOT 55.15, LEN 16.90, GLW 19, CRUS 18, SNDK 44. NOC TAP ROVI RIMM FNSR all found 200 day support Friday. MIPS VMW found 200 day resistance Friday. LOGI plunged below its 200 day MA Friday on poor guidance. BRCM lost its 200 day MA Friday. Not a good sign as evidenced by TGT FFIV AKAM. Lose that 200 day and trouble lies ahead. NTAP can be bought over 50, if it can reclaim its 200 day moving average.

Stocks which can be shorted at their 50 day MA CY 21, NVLS 38, SWKS 33.60, TXN 34.85, JBL 21, TEL 35.95, RIG 80.25. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are KLAC 46, TTWO 14.75. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were WU ATML NVLS TXN GR MT AVT RIG SWC SHLD MOS GS QCOM. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were CAM AAPL XLNX APKT.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX TTM RAX.