Thursday, September 30, 2010

After Hours

September finished on a weak note today, but for the month which is traditionally weak, indexes had their best gains in more than 2 years. The Nazz was up 12% and the S&P almost 9%. Thursday also marked the end of the quarter, and for the sixth time in the last six end of quarter days the market finished lower. Stocks didnt react well to good economic news. PMI and first time jobless claims were stronger than expected. Leaders such as AAPL VMW NFLX performed poorly.

Stocks that can be bought as they retreat to their MAs are: CPX @19 INTU @42 (both 50 day) and PFE @16.75 (200 day). Keep an eye on APC thru 59. If it can get thru the 200 day buy it. TRMB continues to show great price action after its breakout recently. Good relative strength on a weak tape must be taken notice of.

CE is sporting a potential 33.10 buy point in a cup with handle base. The handle must be 5 days in duration so its still premature. Keep it on the watch list.

Stocks looking weak include: XEC held its 200 day to the penny today. But it has traded in a tight range between its 50 and 200 day MA. A break below the 200 day can be shorted. Sell stop @64.75 on XEC. RIMM continues to lose ground as it hits its 50 day MA. Short at 49.30 with a buy stop @51 to cover. CP had a negative outside day today. Sell stop @59.70. SBUX in a bearish head and shoulders formation.

Changes in the portfolio today were: Long A @33.47 (double bottom). Short WYNN @88 (50 day resistance).

Good luck.


Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Mid Evening Musings

Markets today declined in soft volume. Leaders held firm and the day had the feeling of normal profit taking. Oil stocks gained as crude gained 2%. Auto and energy were among the strongest groups. Indexes started the day on a sour note with news of protests from all around Europe.

From the energy group a couple of stocks are gearing up for the 200 day area. APC @59 and SLB @62.50 can be bought as they pierce those resistance lines. XEC crashed at its 50 day and closed near its lows and XOM played its recent role of laggard beautifully. CAM is building its right side and CLF has formed a bullish cup with handle base with a buy point of 68.93.

Other stocks to take note of include CRM which is nearing its 50 day at 110. It must and should hold there. UPS has a 50 day test @66. RADS had a bullish day bouncing on strong volume off its 50 day @17. That can be bought here with a stop under the 50 day. OVTI is sporting a nice double bottom pattern here. The buy stop on OVTI is 23.72.

WYNN can be shorted @88.

We were stopped out on JKS today and initiated a position in CRUS @18.

Good luck.


Quick Thought

Want to know where the real global growth is? Check out the banks. Look at our anemic financials. MS BAC WFC. Now look at IBN (India), CIB (Colombia), SAN (Chile), BBD (Brazil). Think you get the picture. You would think we were the emerging growth country. Can November come soon enough?

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Early Evening Thoughts

Market showed its strength today closing on the highs after starting the morning weak off some shaky economic data. Closing on highs after beginning on the lows is classic bull market action. Noticeably weak today were some leaders. AAPL BIDU CRM. Of course you can admire the markets strong move giving the weakness of some of those previously mentioned stalwarts. Volume came in above average feeding the fire for the bulls.

Buy stops can be placed on A @33.47 (double bottom), RTP @62.34 (cup base, although could form handle), SWC @18.58 (same as RTP), AMP @48.65 (cup with handle).

Stocks that can be bought as they trend to support lines are: CNQR @48, RADS @16.50 (both 50 day MA). Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru trend lines are: CRUS @18 (50 day), URBN @35.30 (200 day).

Gap up stocks that must be put on watch lists are: IBN, which gapped up 9/13 and has not looked back. ORCL gapped up 9/17 to a 10 yr high on monster volume. I am a believer that old leaders virtually never dominate as new leaders as a new bull market begins.

Other stocks to keep an eye on are IPI and MCO stubbornly holding onto their 200 day MA. JWN busted thru its 200 day today.

Stocks building the right side of the bases are JNPR SOA.

XEC can be shorted under 65 (200 day). Let the move confirm itself. XOM looks destined to test its 200 day near 64. Lets see how the psychological energy bellwether (although its a laggard) performs there. CNI can be shorted under 62.25.

We shorted PSA today back near par. Looks like 50 day may be resistance now.

Good luck. Shed losers promptly.


Monday, September 27, 2010

Night Charting

The markets today gave back a small portion of last week gains. The Nasdaq is still up 12% this month alone, and the weak volume today suggested big players remained on the sidelines. Leading stocks performed admirably today as well, cushioning the blow.

Lets remember our buy stops HOT @54.35, (cup with handle), TEN @29.84 (cup base), BUCY @72.60 (cup with handle) and OVTI @23.72. We can buy CXO @62 (50 day), CPX @19 (50 day), PFE @16.75 and IPI @26 (both 200 day).

Stocks going through moving averages and can be bought as they go thru them are: CRUS thru 18 (50 day), APC thru 59 (200 day)

RIG looking good and a new chart that I discovered that I really like is AXTI.

Today I bought some TIBX @18.05. The gap up on Friday after that earnings beat usually foreshadows a stronge future move. Lets remember how well stocks performed after gapping up. CTXS INFA INTU OPEN APKT CHRW AAP DLTR, and of course NZ come to mind. The risk reward set up here of losing a point to maybe gain 4 or 5 is the set ups we look for all the time.

PSA lost its 50 day today. Looks weak and can be shorted back up to that line.

Good luck.


Friday, September 24, 2010

Weekend Stock Reflections

Another week in the black. Makes four straight winning weeks for US stocks. The Nasdaq led the way today with a 2.3% gain, thanks in part to the chip sector vaulting 4%. For the week the Nasdaq also led the indexes, now firmly entrenched above their 50 and 200 day MA. Volume was solid adding validity to the rally. New highs crushed new lows and basically all industry groups finished higher. Leading stocks, a great gauge of the healthiness of the rally, soared.

Stocks that have now developed specific buy points include: NBL @77.63 (cup with handle), TRW @39.96 (cup without handle), TEN @29.84 (cup without handle), TSL @28.97 (double bottom with handle), KSU @39.58 (double bottom with handle), FCX @88.40 an add on buy point since we already own it (double bottom, could develop a handle), BUCY @72.60 (cup with handle), FAST @55.95 (double bottom). These are buy stop orders to be executed at these prices when volume is strong.

Buy stops that can be entered as they break through their MAs are: Going through their 200 day MA. SLB @62.85, JWN @37.60, VLTR @23. Stocks going through their 50 day are: RRC @37, CRUS @18, XEC @70.25.

Stocks that we spoke about recently that were not purchased that are doing well are: IPI gave us two chances to get in at the 200 day @26. WLT through 80 continues to look great. CRZO rebounded off its 200 day @ 22. TRMB broke out of a cup base without a handle @33.66 and holding above that level consolidating the gains. A bullish sign.

Stocks building the right sides of their bases are VALE ROK SWC.

We purchased APA through the 200 day @98.25 on Friday.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, EXXI, WLL, APA. Short of JKS AVGO

Thursday, September 23, 2010

After the Close

Todays seesaw action in the end turned up a slightly negative session. Volume was tame easing the pain. Leaders such as AAPL AMZN BIDU NFLX performed admirably. Earning after the close from NKE and TIBX have both stocks registering nice after market gains. Economic news on the day was different with jobless claims coming in higher than expected but existing home sales were higher than forecasts.

Stocks and areas to focus on them are as follows. Stocks that can be bought as they trade to their 50 day MAs are: CPX @19, ADTN @32, CHRW @65, UNP @76, RADS @16, RES @18. XEC can be bought at its 200 day MA @64. Tight stops on all purchases as always.

Two stocks to keep on the watchlist. Both developing cup with handle buy points. Wait til the buy points are taken on on big volume. Dont try to get in early. Let the move confirm itself. HOT @54.35 and DOV @52.08.

American steel stocks continued to take the recent beatings they been given. NUE, X both well under their 200 day are now firmly below there 50 day as well. Put in a sell stop, to short, on FDX @81.75.

Sold AN today right back where we bought it at 23. Took a push. Didnt like the chart action.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, WLL, EXXI. Short JKS AVGO

Nigeria Heads to the Polls

As election excitement mounts in the U.S., voters worldwide are experiencing the same fervor. Citizens of Africa's most populous nation, Nigeria, will get to cast their ballots in January of 2011. Ever since the country was released from the grip of military rule in 1999, there has been an informal arrangement: the President would switch from the Muslim North to the Christian South every 2 terms (8 years). However, an interesting development occurred this year that will make this election quite intriguing.

Umaru Yar'Adua, a Northern Muslim, was elected in December of 2006. He fell ill in the latter part of his first term. In 2009, he left the country for Saudi Arabia to undergo medical treatment. On May 5th of this year, during his first term, he passed away at age 58. Vice President Jonathan Goodluck, a Christian Southener, filled the vacated presidency. Under the power sharing agreement between the two regions, a Northener should assume the President's role for the second term. President Goodluck put that notion to sleep when on September 15th he announced his run. On his Facebook page.

Prognosticators predict sectarian violence, government corruption and non-credible elections while the country of Nigeria is expected to show a 7% growth in GDP. Close to 75% of government revenues come from the oil and natural gas sector. Yet the area that showers the country with its wealth - the Niger Delta - is home to most of the country's internal conflicts. Many stand on pins and needles, hoping that the elections go smoothly and set off the smallest amount of chaotic disorder possible in the states comprising the Delta. But what is at stake for us here at home? Most people fail to realize that Nigeria is our third or fourth largest importer of oil lagging only behind Canada, Mexico and sometimes Saudi Arabia. Nigerian oil itself is of the highest quality in the world. The light, sweet crude appeals to developed nations because of its ease in refining (China signed a $23 billion agreement with Nigeria). Total, a French company, recently entered into a $20 billion investment. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Shell have major interests as well. It's unfortunate that a region brimming with such potential for its vast resource could be plagued by political turmoil.

As Canadian tar sands are chastised, Mexico suffers from drug-related violence and inferior infrastructure. Saudi Arabia, a superficial ally at best, faces major terrorism and as we know Nigeria has other unique problems of its own. Our top four oil suppliers are riddled with issues. Meanwhile, here at home we have more oil and natural gas underground than we know what to do with. And we have the best technology to extract these resources, but our own government is trying to block drilling while imposing stiff tax hikes that discourage domestic exploration. This is an opportunity to create sorely needed jobs while reducing our dependence upon foreign oil. When will the American public stand up and voice their concern? In November, I hope...

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Evening Thoughts

The market today didnt really end up doing much. Was a quiet day, with the fed announcement of no change in interest rates. Transportations stocks held up real well, and leading stocks performed admirably.

Just a few new recommendations, and a few reminders. WYNN had a negative reversal today. Lets try and short some @94 and cover @96. XEC could now be looked at as a negative head and shoulders pattern after repeatedly stopped at its 50 day MA. Lets try and short some @69.50 and cover @71. RBCN SNDK both lost their 200 day MA on big volume today. An ominous sign. Lets short some as they challenge that line. Thats RBCN @23.50 and SNDK @37.
PBR is in a sloppy downtrend now. A short candidate for sure. Short PBR @36.

On the long side TEN buy stop @29.84 (cup base), ALK buy stop @50, AMGN buy stop @56.25 as it tries to reclaim its 200 day MA. APA buy stop @ 98.25, and CRZO can be bought @22 (200 day MA), CPX @20 back to its buy point.

Good luck and be patient.

Author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, AN, EXXI, WLL. Short AVGO JKS

Monday, September 20, 2010

After Close Pondering

Well the market certainly kept its winning ways today, albeit on weak volume. However thats comparing it to Fridays elevated levels due to quadruple witching. The Nasdaq has now rallied 9 straight days with AAPL hitting fresh all time highs today.

The energy sector put in a strong performance today. Lets see if the OIH can pierce its 200 day MA near 114.50. If it does certainly bodes well for stocks in the group. Buy stop on XEC can be placed @70.50 as it nudges its way past the 50 day line. APA looks to conquer its 200 day, as it approaches it for the fourth time since May. Place a buy stop on APA @98.25. Remember too that a buy stop on NBL can be placed @78.63 as it takes out a cup with handle pattern. A laggard in the group is EOG. Is that company's stock predicting a onshore drilling disaster? Wow is that an ugly chart.

Other spots where orders can be placed are: TEN @29.84 with a cup formation. The stock can also form a handle. ADSK @35.28 also a cup formation. A handle may develop here as well. JWN is going to test its 200 day soon. Place a buy stop on JWN @37.25. NSC has a double bottom with a handle buy point @59.74. DRI buy stop is 46.29 with a double bottom with handle pattern as well. Careful DRI has earnings tomorrow. TRMB broke out today above its 33.66 buy point. Keep an eye on it and also IPI which we spoke of yesterday had a beautiful day.

Yesterday we spoke of the value of looking at 200 day support. Today notice the viability of gap ups and how they generally hold up well. Case in point, CTXS INFA INTU CRM IBN AAP. Stocks gapping up then resuming their uptrends after finding support at the 50 day MA include RVBD CTSH.

Today was a nice day. NZ received a buyout offer from IBM. We sold it today @28 after purchasing it @19 on 8/31/10. Can a bidding war ensue? Perhaps, but we wont be greedy. We initiated a new position in WLL @94 today that we mentioned Saturday. On a down note we were stopped for a small loss in STRI today.

The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, EXXI, AN, WLL. Short AVGO JKS

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis works. As I chart every night over 300 or so stocks, I love to look for winning patterns. Cup with handle, double bottom, three week tight formations all work. However the simple moving averages, 50 and 200 day MAs offer support. Some of the markets best leaders this year all were supported by their 50 day. These include VMW BIDU FFIV AAP. But often a stocks last stand lies at its 200 day. The proverbial line in the sand. Just to prove that these moving averages work, lets consider the list forthcoming of stocks this year that found support at that all important line. And note the rich, diversity of industry groups. MCD MFB PNRA FOSL DLTR VIT DE AAPL ALTR BWA EMC EXXI TRW LXK TEN TTM NTAP LVS CXO DTVXEC CMI WLL INTU EGO PSA SPG CTSH. I can go on and on, but I think you get the point. Now if that line is breached to the downside, it quite often spells doom for the stock.

Sticking to the theme here GS has an important clash with its 200 day MA. A psychological market bell weather, if GS can pierce that 200 day it can foreshadow good things for the future. It failed there in early August, and again 5 days ago. Going to be fun to see how this one plays out. Lets see if it can break thru 155 on the upside with powerful volume. IPI, in the top performing agriculture sector, popped its head above its 200 day in strong volume on Friday. Lets see if that line in the sand becomes support now. It should hold 26.

One last recommendation. Short TSLA under 20, going below its 50 day.

Good luck.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, AN, NZ, STRI, AKAM, EXXI. Short AVGO JKS

Arizona Stirs a Hornet's Nest

As November elections hover like a dark cloud, incumbents are scrambling for cover. Big wins on important issues like health care and financial reform, which at the time seemed like obvious talking points for politicians to boast about, have now unleashed a deafening silence. They're now relegated to the back pages of our nation's newspapers in spite of their formerly front page status day after day. But another hot topic is receiving plenty of headlines these days: The Arizona Immigration Law.

Upon passage of one of the most strict immigration laws in the United States, media outlets around the world and politicians alike cried foul on April 23rd, 2010. Popular anti-sentiment feelings manifested themselves into large protesting rallies, talk show ridicule and even arguments of racism. Now - five months later - it seems all the agitation has disappeared. With healthy support for Governor Jan Brewer's new law coming not only from Arizona residents (66% favor it), but from all over the country (62% nationwide favor Arizona law). Six more states (including South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Michigan) have adopted legislation mirroring Arizona's law.

What most people fail to realize, regarding Arizona's unique immigration matter, is the link to crime that state. Arizona hosts the nation's worst kidnapping rate and Sheriff Joe Arpaio has a $1 million reward on his head from the Mexican cartels.

New developments indicate that the immigration trade has demanded the attention of the Mexican drug lords. Ever since the construction of the border fence in California, illegal immigrants have sought entry into the United States through neighboring Arizona. The drug lords commingled the illegal aliens with their drug smuggling activities and their riches soared. The OTM (Other Than Mexican) situation also poses a national security threat. U. S. Border Patrol statistics show illegal aliens detained trying to cross the border hail from countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Sudan and Iran. Think they're trying to mow lawns in Phoenix?

Immigration is, and will continue to be, a touchy subject as far as the eye can see. No doubt we need immigrants to grow our economy and most are decent, hard working individuals. But the American public, with an overwhelming majority, prefers harsher laws. And the mainstream media is unsurprisingly out of touch with those statistics. Whatever happened to the days when Ellis Island was a coveted destination and the process of becoming a U. S. citizen really meant something?

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Saturday Wake Up. Money Never Sleeps Pal

Markets mustered their way to a 3 week winning streak Friday. Volume was strong most likely due to quadruple witching. Leading stocks held up well and the semis, a recent laggard group, posted a solid weekly gain. The indexes are now comfortable with resting above their 200 day MAs. The Nasdaq posted the best result this week with a 3.3% rise in healthy volume.

Stocks creating specific buy points include: NBL @78.63 in a cup with handle formation. DRI @46.29, RAX @22.94, TKC @17.10, KSU @39.58, NSC @59.74 all sporting handles from recent double bottom bases. VMW @87.26 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. TRMB can be bought as it trades thru 33.56 if it decides not to form a handle. All these stocks are purchased when they pass the specific buy point, not before, on strong volume.

Stocks that can be bought as they retreat toward support on soft volume include: TEN @26, RADS @16. Both 50 day MA. Stocks at the 200 day are: PFE @16.75, MTL @23, CRZO @22. WLL can be bought as it passes above 94, in a quadruple top pattern.

Stocks building the right side of their bases now to watch until a pattern develops are: ROK, RTP, PVH.

FTNT another recent IPO leader, continues to trade well above its 20.69 buy point. Well extended here, but any weakness back toward that buy point should be considered any opportunity. OPEN and QLIK other examples of why we must keep an eye on recent IPOs.

Shorts that can be put on are: BA @ 65, JCG @35, SNDK below 36.50, CRUS below 15.

We were stopped out on BCE for a small loss, and initiated positions in EXXI thru the 21.45 buy point, AN @23 (50 day MA), and shorted JKS @29.

Good luck.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, AKAM, NZ, STRI, EXXI, AN, short JKS, AVGO.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Morning Thoughts

Good morning and lets see how the market reacts to weak FDX earnings today, and jobless claims. Here are my picks for the day. Short JKS @29. Big reversal after huge run up. RIG remains strong and look to buy WLT if it trades above 80. In that space CRZO looks good now that its holding its 200 day MA for 8 days. Can buy it on weakness as long as it holds the 200 day. EXXI can be bought thru 21.45 with a nice cup with handle formation.

Other picks: AN @23 (50 day MA). Buy stops can be put on the following: ALK @49.50, AMGN @56.25, ORLY @51.80 JWN @37.25

Good luck.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, NZ, AKAM, STRI, short of BCE, AVGO

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Late Night Charting

Markets finished nearly UNCH today but did manage did close in the upper half of the trading range. A bullish sign. Lets look at some energy names tonight. If APA can bust thru its 200 day MA near 98.50 could bode very well for the stock. It would be the 4th time challenging that important MA. XEC can resume its recent uptrend if it can break thru its 50 day MA. Put in a buy stop above 71. WLT looks like it can see par again if it can get thru 80 and resume its right side base building. NBL continues to look great as it finishes building its right side. Look for a handle to form wedging slightly lower on weak volume. If not the buy stop should be put in at 81.60.

Stocks building the right sides of bases and worth inclusion on watchlists include: JNPR DRI TRMB CAKE. Stocks that can be bought as they retreat to their 50 day MA are RADS @15 and SUN @35. APD has a 80.34 buy stop pt in a double bottom formation. QLIK CTXS remain very strong. Look for AMP to form a handle in the next few days. And do not forget to put in a sell stop to short WFMI below 34.75.

We were stopped out on NUE for a small loss in its frantic trading today.

Good luck.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, NZ, AKAM, STRI. Short of BCE

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Sunday Wake Up

The markets ended calmly for Friday and for the week, as it stabilized after last weeks strong gains. Breadth amongst new highs was sound as well. Charts continue to form bullish patterns. The indexes themselves continue to gain ground quietly flirting with the 200MAs. Stocks themselves, that are positively developing the right side of their cup base and demand inclusion on your watchlists include: HOT, BUCY, ROK, ORLY, WRC, TRMB.

The auto sector which caught a JPM downgrade on Wednesday, hurt one of the recent top performing groups. BWA @44.25 , CMI @78 can be purchased at their 50 MA. TTM is trading very narrowly after a nice breakout. Lets see if it continues to that very bullish trait.

Stocks that can be bougth with exact price points are: CIG @16.99, LXK @39.48 (both double bottom with handle buy point). BIIB @58.26 as it passes thru a cup with handle pattern.

Stocks that can be bought at their 50 MA include: RADS @16, ARUN @18, AN @22. Stocks that can be bought at their 200 MA are: QCOM @40, PFE @16.70, CRZO @22.50.

CVLT and WTR continue to hold strong after recent breakouts. Keep an eagle eye on them.

In the energy space XEC can be bought as it trades upward and thru 70.75 Trying to break thru its 50 day MA and eventually forming a double bottom buy point of 77.21. But thats looking into the future. Lets see it pass 70.75 first, then you can add later to it thru 77.21. RIG continues to look great, and OIH can be bought @105.

MT, MTL are very slowly looking like they are forming the right side of their bases, and X has hit the brakes twice in the last 7 weeks at its 200 MA. Lets see if X, can trade thru 52, its 200MA, and try to build the right side of its base. Would be very bullish indeed for commodities.

Shorts that should be considered are the chips. At least for the day on Friday my Thursday stop of AVGO at 19.69 looked fantastic. If it trades back up to that spot near its 200MA and fails short it. CAVM can be shorted @25.50, RBCN @24, both their respective 200 MAs. If OVTI closes below 18, its 200 day that gave it support to on Friday, short it as well. JBHT can be shorted @34.50, and a short stop can be placed on WFMI 34.75.

I bought STRI as it passed thru 23 on Friday on decent volume.

Good luck and keep losses small.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, NZ, AKAM, NUE, STRI, short of BCE.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Evening Thoughts

Today's action on the surface may be construed as bullish, however if you dig a little deeper it may not seem so. A few recent leaders have negative reversals including CTSH, FFIV, PCLN, DECK, NTAP. Chips continue to look weak. AVGO (I was stopped out on that today as it closed below its 200 day), OVTI well below its 50 day, CRUS in an obvious downtrend now, CREE whose chart looks like a red headed stepchild, XLNX whose 200 day is now resistance, and RBCN which found support at its 200 day, but looks rather ominous. RBCN you can put a sell stop to short at 23.75 as it loses its 200 day.

Some strong recent groups that were soft today included real estate whose leaders VNO, SPG, PSA all suffered negative reversals as well today. Precious metals did as too. NEM, ANV, SLW all closed hard upon their lows. JCG struggles with its 50 day too. FDO looks like its churning and a real negative reversal 4 days ago, suggests a short here with a buy stop to cover thru 44.50. And lets not forget WFMI which looks very vulnerable and a short stop can be placed below its 200 day at 34.75.

As weak as today was we do remain in an uptrend. So lets remain open minded an look for buys as well. STRI can be bought thru 23, and NFX thru 52. RAX has a double bottom forming with a buy point of 21.46. CVLT can be bought at 24.75. Stocks that can be bought if they bounce from support at their 50 day MA include BWA @44, TEN @25, WTR @19.50, RADS @15.75, AN @22.50.

Stocks that can be put on a watchlist that are exhibiting relative strength are NBL, a leader in the energy sector that is forming the right side of a cup base. RIG looks strong as it holds above its 50 day MA and its 8/24 low of 49.74 that we blogged about at the time. AMP is building the right side of its base. Look for a handle to form on soft volume or a breakout of a cup formation on strong volume thru 49.64. PXD and EBAY are forming their right sides as well. EXXI has completed its right side and looks like its forming a handle in soft volume. Remember the handle needs at least 5 days to form.

As always plan your trade and trade your plan. Patience and wait for you spots.

The author holds positions in FCX, AMT, NZ, AKAM, NUE. Short of BCE. Stopped on AVGO

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Morning Buzz

Yesterdays action was not impressive, but far from disastrous. Volume as flat, although it did tick up on the Nasdaq due to the tremendous volume on ORCL and Mark Hurd was hired at the firm. In a weak tape watch for relative strength. This came yesterday from ISLN, JKS, NTAP, AKAM (which we purchased at 46.09 off the double bottom), MCD, X, NUE (which we purchased thru 39 yesterday), and NZ (which we purchased at 19).

We must also keep an eye out for weakness to sell into. Shorts that can be put on are: NFX @51, ALK @48, BCE here with a buy stop to cover at 32.75. Stock seems to be churning here. And WFMI place a short stop when it trades below to the 200 day at 35.

Other spots to purchase stocks: ROVI 42, VRSN 28.70, FMX 49, PWER 10, AN 22.50, GPC 42, SWKS 17.90, JCG thru 35, CB 54.25. DTV setting up a cup with handle base with buy point at 39.99, SMG with a 50.48 buy point in a cup with high handle base and CIG with a 16.99 double bottom with handle formation.

Pair suggestion long QCOM, short RIMM.

As always buy stocks that pass these buy points in strong volume and limit losses. Good luck.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, AVGO, AKAM, NZ, NUE.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Weekend Recommendations

The market continued its winning ways on Friday to close out a bullish week. Leading stocks continued to perform well and the indexes closing on their highs for 3 consecutive days demonstrated real strength. New groups emerge every week to broaden the leadership. This week the restaurant and the machinery stocks joined the leaders. Looks like now is time to buy weakness if the opportunity presents itself. And remember to add to your winners. Buy strength.

Stocks to be purchased are: WTR @20, SOA @14.50, QCOM @40, HS @21. Buy these as they trade upward and thru these prices. XEC thru 71, ROVI thru 45.06, ADTN thru 33.10, CRUS thru 18.10, NVDA thru 10.50, NUE thru 39, JCG thru 35. ALV thru 59.78 displaying a high cup with handle formation and LXK thru 39.48 with a double bottom with handle formation.

As always be patient with the trades and wait for your spots. Dont overtrade. Good luck.

The author owns positions in FCX, AMT, AVGO, NZ, AKAM

A Boom Gaining Recognition

Now that the BP oil spill that, excuse the pun, flooded the newspapers ad naseum has simmered down, a new and more positive story is developing. In the state of North Dakota, an oil boom is taking place. Thanks to new technologies, oil and natural gas are being extracted from the ground at a feverish pace. The Bakken Shale formation that lies deep underground in North Dakota and Montana as well as the province of Saskatchewan, is providing handsomely for the region.

In 1951, when the Hess Corporation discovered vast resources of oil and natural gas, North Dakota had the potential to become a major domestic energy supplier. Today, the remote area's promising past has turned into a flourishing future. Oil production there has grown from 80,000 BPD (barrels per day) in 2004 to almost 300,000 BPD this year. According to U.S. Geological estimates, 4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil linger well below the earth's surface. This year, the state became the 4th largest supplier of oil trailing only CA, AK, and TX.

As the world frets about its oil supply, new technology is setting those worries at ease. Companies have begun employing new drilling techniques that have substantially boosted production. Hydraulic fracturing (also known as "fracking") and extended reach horizontal drilling - where drill bits dig 2 miles below the earth's surface then 2 miles side to side - in some cases, have aided North Dakota wonderfully. Thanks to these new tactics, oil production has increased in the United States for the first time since 1991 on a year by year basis.

These scientific advances have contributed economic strength as well. North Dakota currently enjoys the nation's lowest unemployment rate, at 3.6%. The boom has hotel rooms in short supply, airlines adding flights and even McDonalds is handing out $300 bonuses for new employees. A $700 million budget surplus is predicted for this year, and it's the only state in the country adding jobs. To top it all off, North Dakota's residents enjoy the highest standard of living in the U.S. (

With enormous amounts of oil and natural gas throughout the U.S., now is the time to change our energy policy. Job creation during this anemic growth period and the reduction of our dependence on foreign oil seems like a no-brainer to me. Who would have thought such an unassuming Midwestern state would provide the blueprint for successful energy transition?

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Late Night Thoughts

Although I would never endorse trading ahead of a big employment report, one always needs to be on the lookout for opportunities. The markets strong September, of course only a few days old, gives the possibility that a new rally is emerging. The groups that are now participating create a broad breadth which is indeed bullish. Sectors such as utilities (WTR, SO, WEC, WR), and even real estate (BAM, PSA, SPG, VNO) give a sense of credibility to the emerging rally.

Lets keep an eye on a couple new IPOs besides JKS, AVGO, STRI, OPEN. Add to this group FTNT and LOGM.

Stocks with specific buy points: NTES 42.24 cup with handle, APD 77.94 double bottom with handle, VNO 86.67 cup with handle, DRI 45.14 double bottom, GPC 44.62 cup with handle.

Other spots where stocks can be purchased: ALTR thru 27, TKC 15.75, MT 30, QCOM thru 40.75, NBL 70, SM thru 41, SU thru 33, WLT thru 80.25, AAPL thru 255, INFY thru 60.25, NUE thru 39.25, DRQ thru 55.60. MNRO 40 but careful its illiquid.

Short LULU 36.

Good luck.

The author has positions in FCX, AVGO, AMT, AKAM, NZ