Markets again closed in a quiet like manner. Volume was again tame as should be expected for the remainder of the year. Gold and silver stocks were among the days best performers. Gold climbed above the $1400 dollar level and silver rose 4% to a 30 year high. Breadth was negative.
Stocks near specific buy points are: LOW @25.96, MT @38.90, BCSI @30.76, PAYX @31.39, TC @14.25 all cup with handles. FAST @60.25 in a 3 week tight pattern and USB @28.53 in a cup base.
Stocks near their 50 day MA are: ALV @76, F @16, TRW @50, WYN @29.50, NBL @83, PTEN @20.50, CTXS @66.50, PMTC 22.10, RHT @44.25, CRM @129, VRSN @32.10, RVBD @32, TDC @41, TRMB @38, EXPD @53, KSU @46.50, UNP @91, JCI @37, JWN @41.25, UA @53, COH @54, GSM @16.60, TAP @49, BRCM @43, OVTI @28.50, TXN @31.50, PAY @36, AGP @44, XXIA @16, BMC @46, HRC here, MCHP @34, MSCC @22, MIPS @14, EMR @56. Stocks that can be bought as they break above their 50 day MA are VNO @84.25 and AMT @51.50. PBR can be bought above its 200 day MA @36.80.
KKR is drifting back towards its 13.85 buy point in a flat base. STT is forming a handle.
ETFs near entry or support levels are: TBT which rallied 4% today after support at its 200 day MA. FXI also found support at 42, its 200 day MA. GLD has rallied off its 50 day MA.
Stocks showing weakness are: RES under 18, its 50 day MA. PVH lost its 50 day today. MRX found resistance at its 50 day. LTD is now looking like its living comfortably under its 50 day MA.
Good luck. Will be taking a break until the New Year. Have a happy and safe New Year.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN KKR WCRX SDS. Short TTM EBAY.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Monday Monday
Markets once again closed in a boring fashion. Again, as the old adage goes, never sell a dull market. Volume will not pick up until the new year commences. Until then, breakouts will be few and far between. They may move past buy points but the lack of volume will lessen the impact of the move. The markets did prove their resilience by finishing on their highs of the day after early weakness due to the Chinese interest rate hike.
Stocks near specific buy points are: ADP @47.27, LRCX @53.01, FAST @60.25, PCAR @57.85, FCS @15.90, LLTC @35.17 all 3 week tight patterns. Flat bases are WSM @36.92, RAI @33.51. Cup with high handle is ANR @56.52. Cup with handle is APC @71.99, MTL @29.84 (handle needs 2 more days to form), X @59.56 (handle needs one more day to form). CCL is holding just above a 45.00 buy point in a flat base which occurred on 12/21.
Stocks near their 50 day MA are: WYN @29.50, MAR @40, HOT @58, PCLN @400, CPX @28, XOM @70, NBL @83, RIG here, UPL @46, PTEN @20.50, NFLX @178, SIAL @65, DD @48, GOOG @600, TDC @41, IBM @144, EXPD @53, KSU @46.25, UNP @90.75, ABX @50.40, RIO @68, GFI @17, VALE @33, JCI @37, SBUX @31, JWN @41, UA @53, COH @53.75, NKE @85, OVTI @28.50, AGP @44, BEAV @36, MSCC @22, MIPS @14, EMR @56. Stocks that found support at their 50 day today are NFLX MCHP ORLY CAKE M BRCM NETL HRC. Stocks that can be bought as they move upward thru their 50 day MA are: AMT thru 51.50, CP thru 65.25, MRX @28.25, VNO thru 84.25.
STX RIMM are both finding support above their 200 day MA. ZION is pulling further away from its 200 day MA as it has proven support there. MCD LOGI are both trading below there 50 day MA and should find support at there respective 200 day MAs. MCD @73, LOGI @16.85. BBT can be bought at 27.30, as it breaks above its 200 day MA.
HES SLB both trading in a very tight range. Very bullish. PAY is holding its gap up. PBR could be building the right side of its base. It recently traded above the 50 day MA and now looks ready to challenge its 200 day @36.40.
ETFs XHB XLF both building right sides of base. TBT found support at its 200 day today. GLD finding support at its 50 day MA.
CMG lost its 50 day today and RES can be shorted under 18, its 50 day MA.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX KKR SDS. Short TTM EBAY.
Stocks near specific buy points are: ADP @47.27, LRCX @53.01, FAST @60.25, PCAR @57.85, FCS @15.90, LLTC @35.17 all 3 week tight patterns. Flat bases are WSM @36.92, RAI @33.51. Cup with high handle is ANR @56.52. Cup with handle is APC @71.99, MTL @29.84 (handle needs 2 more days to form), X @59.56 (handle needs one more day to form). CCL is holding just above a 45.00 buy point in a flat base which occurred on 12/21.
Stocks near their 50 day MA are: WYN @29.50, MAR @40, HOT @58, PCLN @400, CPX @28, XOM @70, NBL @83, RIG here, UPL @46, PTEN @20.50, NFLX @178, SIAL @65, DD @48, GOOG @600, TDC @41, IBM @144, EXPD @53, KSU @46.25, UNP @90.75, ABX @50.40, RIO @68, GFI @17, VALE @33, JCI @37, SBUX @31, JWN @41, UA @53, COH @53.75, NKE @85, OVTI @28.50, AGP @44, BEAV @36, MSCC @22, MIPS @14, EMR @56. Stocks that found support at their 50 day today are NFLX MCHP ORLY CAKE M BRCM NETL HRC. Stocks that can be bought as they move upward thru their 50 day MA are: AMT thru 51.50, CP thru 65.25, MRX @28.25, VNO thru 84.25.
STX RIMM are both finding support above their 200 day MA. ZION is pulling further away from its 200 day MA as it has proven support there. MCD LOGI are both trading below there 50 day MA and should find support at there respective 200 day MAs. MCD @73, LOGI @16.85. BBT can be bought at 27.30, as it breaks above its 200 day MA.
HES SLB both trading in a very tight range. Very bullish. PAY is holding its gap up. PBR could be building the right side of its base. It recently traded above the 50 day MA and now looks ready to challenge its 200 day @36.40.
ETFs XHB XLF both building right sides of base. TBT found support at its 200 day today. GLD finding support at its 50 day MA.
CMG lost its 50 day today and RES can be shorted under 18, its 50 day MA.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX KKR SDS. Short TTM EBAY.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Sunday Sunday
Markets were mixed Thursday before the holiday closure Friday. Volume as expected came in below normal. For the week the S&P 500 finished 1% higher, and the Nasdaq 0.9% higher. Economic reports were basically yawned at Thursday. More M&A activity emerged Thursday with ROVI buying SNIC and JAS looking to be taken private, following JCG recently.
Stocks offering specific buy points include: 3 week tight patterns. CY @18.36, NLC @32.72, QCOM @50.10, LRCX @53.01, PLL @51.11, ARBA @24.57, TEN @43.81, TRW @54.93, MAR @42.78, TCK @58.59, CBI @33.59, ADSK @39.90, CSX @64.90, UPS @74.04, FAST @60.25, ATU @28.35, PCAR @57.85, FCS @15.90, LLTC @35.17. Flat bases are : NOV @66.21, NBL @86.99, SUN @41.33, IBM @147.63, CP @67.13, UNP @95.88, M @26.42. Double bottom with handles are: CREE @72.95, NETL @34.45, CRUS @17.06, GCI @16.27. 4 week tight patterns are: F @17.13, SBUX @33.25, ADI @38.70. FDX @96.33 in a cup with handle base and MOS @74.35 in a cup base.
Stocks nearing 50 day support are: WYN @29.50, CPX @28, RIG @68, RES @18, HUN @14.40, PTEN @20.50, INTU @47.75, QSFT @26.40, CRM @128, VRSN @32, EMN @80, CE @38, DD @48, NTAP @53, RADS @19, TDC @40.50, TRMB @38, EXPD @52.25, KSU @46, UNP @90, ABX @50.25, RIO @68, GFI @17, VALE @33, JCI @37, ORLY @59, CMG here, UA @53, COH @53, NKE @84.50, KMX here, XRX here, GSM @16.50, BRCM @42.50, OVTI @28, MXIM @22.75, AGP @44, EFX @34.50, BEAV @36, BMC @46, HRC @40, MCHP @33.50, MSCC @22, MIPS @14, FISV @57, TQNT @11, EMR @56. Stocks that can be bought as they break thru their 50 day to the upside are: EPD thru 42.25, MRX thru 28.30, LOGI thru 20.
Stocks nearing 200 day support are: AKAM @44, DTV @38.70, RIMM @58, NEM @58, EGO @17, URBN @35, PNC @58.50. Stocks that can be bought if they take out their 200 day MA to the upside are: SWN thru 37.75, BBT thru 27.50.
Gap ups this week to keep an eye on for continued strenght are JBL ARMH IDCC.
ETFs near support or breakout levels are: OIH thru 140, could be real good. TBT holding its 200 day @38. FXI 200 day MA is 42. SMH has a 33.36 buy point in a four week tight pattern. USO is solidly building its right side of base.
Stocks showing weakness are: WYNN ARUN VIT PM all losing their 50 day MA. PVH under 65 can be shorted, its 50 day MA. LVS under 45 can be shorted also its 50 day. PSA can not get back above par.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX KKR SDS. Short TTM EBAY.
Stocks offering specific buy points include: 3 week tight patterns. CY @18.36, NLC @32.72, QCOM @50.10, LRCX @53.01, PLL @51.11, ARBA @24.57, TEN @43.81, TRW @54.93, MAR @42.78, TCK @58.59, CBI @33.59, ADSK @39.90, CSX @64.90, UPS @74.04, FAST @60.25, ATU @28.35, PCAR @57.85, FCS @15.90, LLTC @35.17. Flat bases are : NOV @66.21, NBL @86.99, SUN @41.33, IBM @147.63, CP @67.13, UNP @95.88, M @26.42. Double bottom with handles are: CREE @72.95, NETL @34.45, CRUS @17.06, GCI @16.27. 4 week tight patterns are: F @17.13, SBUX @33.25, ADI @38.70. FDX @96.33 in a cup with handle base and MOS @74.35 in a cup base.
Stocks nearing 50 day support are: WYN @29.50, CPX @28, RIG @68, RES @18, HUN @14.40, PTEN @20.50, INTU @47.75, QSFT @26.40, CRM @128, VRSN @32, EMN @80, CE @38, DD @48, NTAP @53, RADS @19, TDC @40.50, TRMB @38, EXPD @52.25, KSU @46, UNP @90, ABX @50.25, RIO @68, GFI @17, VALE @33, JCI @37, ORLY @59, CMG here, UA @53, COH @53, NKE @84.50, KMX here, XRX here, GSM @16.50, BRCM @42.50, OVTI @28, MXIM @22.75, AGP @44, EFX @34.50, BEAV @36, BMC @46, HRC @40, MCHP @33.50, MSCC @22, MIPS @14, FISV @57, TQNT @11, EMR @56. Stocks that can be bought as they break thru their 50 day to the upside are: EPD thru 42.25, MRX thru 28.30, LOGI thru 20.
Stocks nearing 200 day support are: AKAM @44, DTV @38.70, RIMM @58, NEM @58, EGO @17, URBN @35, PNC @58.50. Stocks that can be bought if they take out their 200 day MA to the upside are: SWN thru 37.75, BBT thru 27.50.
Gap ups this week to keep an eye on for continued strenght are JBL ARMH IDCC.
ETFs near support or breakout levels are: OIH thru 140, could be real good. TBT holding its 200 day @38. FXI 200 day MA is 42. SMH has a 33.36 buy point in a four week tight pattern. USO is solidly building its right side of base.
Stocks showing weakness are: WYNN ARUN VIT PM all losing their 50 day MA. PVH under 65 can be shorted, its 50 day MA. LVS under 45 can be shorted also its 50 day. PSA can not get back above par.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX KKR SDS. Short TTM EBAY.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Thursday AM
Markets continued their slow and steady ascent Wednesday. As true to holiday fashion volume remains slow. Leaders such as AMZN PCLN continue to act well. Leading groups Wednesday were banks and homebuilders, two laggard groups. No earnings reports are scheduled for Thursday but durable goods, personal income and spending, jobless claims are all out Thursday.
Stocks near specific buy points are: SBUX @33.19, HAS @5.27, YUM @51.40, ADP @47.27, PCAR @57.85, all 3 week tight patterns. Cup bases are AA @15.25, AMTD @20.68, PAYX @32.92, BX @15.59. Cup with handle is EMN @83.13, and IBM @147.63 in a flat base.
Stocks near their 50 day MA are: NBL @82, RIG @67, PTEN @2O.25, DD @48, UNP @90, ABX @50, BRCM @42.25, SIMG @6.50, BEAV @36, HRC @40, MCHP @33.50, MSCC @22. NKE @85, after its earnings related fall and UA @53 which fell in sympathy to NKE miss. Stocks that are nearing their 50 day after swimming below it and can be bought if they get back above their 50 day line are: CP thru 62.25, IBN thru 52.25, LOGI thru 20.10. ALTR found strong support at its 50 day Thursday.
Stocks near 200 day MAs are NEM @58. RIMM STX both finding 200 day support right here. ZION PNC have bounced off recent 200 day support this week. BBT can be bought thru 27.30, its 200 day MA, which has been resistance.
Stocks showing weakness are WYNN VIT which lost their 50 day Thursday. MRX continues to find resistance at its 50 day. ROST can be shorted under 62, its 50 day. RADS TIBX both had outside reversal days. TIBX on earnings.
Portfolio changes were selling QLIK for a push. Outside reversal day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX SDS. Short EBAY TTM.
Stocks near specific buy points are: SBUX @33.19, HAS @5.27, YUM @51.40, ADP @47.27, PCAR @57.85, all 3 week tight patterns. Cup bases are AA @15.25, AMTD @20.68, PAYX @32.92, BX @15.59. Cup with handle is EMN @83.13, and IBM @147.63 in a flat base.
Stocks near their 50 day MA are: NBL @82, RIG @67, PTEN @2O.25, DD @48, UNP @90, ABX @50, BRCM @42.25, SIMG @6.50, BEAV @36, HRC @40, MCHP @33.50, MSCC @22. NKE @85, after its earnings related fall and UA @53 which fell in sympathy to NKE miss. Stocks that are nearing their 50 day after swimming below it and can be bought if they get back above their 50 day line are: CP thru 62.25, IBN thru 52.25, LOGI thru 20.10. ALTR found strong support at its 50 day Thursday.
Stocks near 200 day MAs are NEM @58. RIMM STX both finding 200 day support right here. ZION PNC have bounced off recent 200 day support this week. BBT can be bought thru 27.30, its 200 day MA, which has been resistance.
Stocks showing weakness are WYNN VIT which lost their 50 day Thursday. MRX continues to find resistance at its 50 day. ROST can be shorted under 62, its 50 day. RADS TIBX both had outside reversal days. TIBX on earnings.
Portfolio changes were selling QLIK for a push. Outside reversal day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX SDS. Short EBAY TTM.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Tuesday Recap
Markets rallied Tuesday as stocks delivered solid earnings and M&A news. Volume did come in below average, obviously not out of the norm for this time of year. Breadth was healthy and leading stocks continued to perform well. Oil, steel, and ags sectors outperformed. After the close earnings reports were mixed as NKE RHT traded lower and TIBX traded higher.
Stocks near specific buy points are: APC @72.09, JWN @44.05, NVDA @15.43, EFX @36.09 all cup with handles. Flat bases are IBM @147.63, WSM @36.92. Cup bases are MTL @31.89, RAI @33.51. Double bottom with handle, CRUS @17.06. 3 weeks tight pattern is TXN @34.03.
Stocks nearing their 50 day MA are: CVLT @29.50, ABX @50, GFI @16.80, DOV @55.25, BRCM @42.25, WCRX @22, BEAV @36, APH @51.25, MIPS @13.50, TQNT @11. Stocks that continue to find recent 50 day support are: NFLX WYNN RES WNR EMN ARUN UNP PFE SKS LTD OVTI CEVA FOE. Stocks nearing their 50 day MA and attempting to retake them are: MOS @69.50, LOGI @19.95. Put in buy stops on MOS LOGI at those prices. As always demand strong volume.
Stocks near their 200 day MA are: DTV @38.50, CREE @64, NYX @29.50, ZION @22.50, RIMM here.
Gap ups from upside earnings reports that continue to perform well are: LULU WFMI ANF PAY BRCM JOYG FNSR COH EL FL DKS.
ETFs near buy points are: SMH @33.36 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. MOO @53.00 in a cup base. XLF XHB both building the right side of their bases. KOL JJC acting strong.
Stocks exhibiting weakness are: AMT which stopped today at its 50 day MA. PM lost its 50 day today. VIT can be shorted @36.25 as it nears its 50 day MA.
Portfolio changes today were: Long KKR @13.85 as it broke out in huge volume from a flat base. Added to our ARMH @19.38 as it broke out in huge volume from a cup with handle base. We originally purchased ARMH 11/19 as it retook its 50 day MA in strong volume. Shorted EBAY @29 as it lost its 50 day in above average volume. TTM on a very short leash here.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX VRSN QLIK SDS. Short EBAY TTM.
Stocks near specific buy points are: APC @72.09, JWN @44.05, NVDA @15.43, EFX @36.09 all cup with handles. Flat bases are IBM @147.63, WSM @36.92. Cup bases are MTL @31.89, RAI @33.51. Double bottom with handle, CRUS @17.06. 3 weeks tight pattern is TXN @34.03.
Stocks nearing their 50 day MA are: CVLT @29.50, ABX @50, GFI @16.80, DOV @55.25, BRCM @42.25, WCRX @22, BEAV @36, APH @51.25, MIPS @13.50, TQNT @11. Stocks that continue to find recent 50 day support are: NFLX WYNN RES WNR EMN ARUN UNP PFE SKS LTD OVTI CEVA FOE. Stocks nearing their 50 day MA and attempting to retake them are: MOS @69.50, LOGI @19.95. Put in buy stops on MOS LOGI at those prices. As always demand strong volume.
Stocks near their 200 day MA are: DTV @38.50, CREE @64, NYX @29.50, ZION @22.50, RIMM here.
Gap ups from upside earnings reports that continue to perform well are: LULU WFMI ANF PAY BRCM JOYG FNSR COH EL FL DKS.
ETFs near buy points are: SMH @33.36 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. MOO @53.00 in a cup base. XLF XHB both building the right side of their bases. KOL JJC acting strong.
Stocks exhibiting weakness are: AMT which stopped today at its 50 day MA. PM lost its 50 day today. VIT can be shorted @36.25 as it nears its 50 day MA.
Portfolio changes today were: Long KKR @13.85 as it broke out in huge volume from a flat base. Added to our ARMH @19.38 as it broke out in huge volume from a cup with handle base. We originally purchased ARMH 11/19 as it retook its 50 day MA in strong volume. Shorted EBAY @29 as it lost its 50 day in above average volume. TTM on a very short leash here.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE VRSN WCRX VRSN QLIK SDS. Short EBAY TTM.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Monday Monday
Markets closed once again in a dull fashion. Volume tapered off compared to Fridays quadruple witching. Leaders are again acting well including AMZN which broke out from a 3 weeks tight pattern in strong volume. After the close ADBE JBL both rose after giving positive earnings reports. Tomorrow companies such as NKE RHT TIBX will report.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: RS @57.29, FDX @96.33, ARMH @19.38, NVDA @15.43, EFX @36.09 all cup with handles. CREE @72.95, NETL @34.45 both double bottom with handle patterns. ETN @101.89 a 3 weeks tight base. BAM @31.99 a cup without handle, and KKR @13.85 in a flat base.
Stocks near 50 day support are: APC @64, NBL @82, PXP @29, PTEN @20.25, NSC @61.70, KSU @46, UNP @90, BHP @86, SWC @19, VALE @33, SKS @11.25, BRCM @42, TXN @31, SIMG @6.50, AXTI @8, BEAV @36, MSCC @22, HUN @14.20, HRC @39.75, PCAR @ 54, TQNT @11, MCHP @33.25. Stocks that have found 50 day support recently are: PCLN ERF EMN RAI OVTI FOE WYNN NFLX. SUN can be bought thru 39.50, if it can reclaim its 50 day MA.
Stocks near 200 day MA are: BUD @54, BBD @18, MCO @24.80, NYX @29.50, GCI @14.50, ITUB @22, SPLS @21.25, RIMM PNC both here.
ETFs near buy points are: OIH @140.09, RSX @37.50 both in a 3 weeks tight pattern. TBT right at its 200 day MA here. FXI 200 day is 42.
Stocks showing weakness are: OPEN under 68, EBAY under 29, ROST under 62 all their 50 day MAs. VIT can be shorted @36.25, its 50 day MA. AKAM looks headed to its 200 day MA @44. Fell under its 50 day MA again today.
Portfolio changes are: Long QLIK @26.57, taking out a cup base. Short TTM @30, as it hit its 50 day MA. We got stopped out on the LVS short for a one dollar loss.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE VRSN QLIK WCRX SDS. Short TTM.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: RS @57.29, FDX @96.33, ARMH @19.38, NVDA @15.43, EFX @36.09 all cup with handles. CREE @72.95, NETL @34.45 both double bottom with handle patterns. ETN @101.89 a 3 weeks tight base. BAM @31.99 a cup without handle, and KKR @13.85 in a flat base.
Stocks near 50 day support are: APC @64, NBL @82, PXP @29, PTEN @20.25, NSC @61.70, KSU @46, UNP @90, BHP @86, SWC @19, VALE @33, SKS @11.25, BRCM @42, TXN @31, SIMG @6.50, AXTI @8, BEAV @36, MSCC @22, HUN @14.20, HRC @39.75, PCAR @ 54, TQNT @11, MCHP @33.25. Stocks that have found 50 day support recently are: PCLN ERF EMN RAI OVTI FOE WYNN NFLX. SUN can be bought thru 39.50, if it can reclaim its 50 day MA.
Stocks near 200 day MA are: BUD @54, BBD @18, MCO @24.80, NYX @29.50, GCI @14.50, ITUB @22, SPLS @21.25, RIMM PNC both here.
ETFs near buy points are: OIH @140.09, RSX @37.50 both in a 3 weeks tight pattern. TBT right at its 200 day MA here. FXI 200 day is 42.
Stocks showing weakness are: OPEN under 68, EBAY under 29, ROST under 62 all their 50 day MAs. VIT can be shorted @36.25, its 50 day MA. AKAM looks headed to its 200 day MA @44. Fell under its 50 day MA again today.
Portfolio changes are: Long QLIK @26.57, taking out a cup base. Short TTM @30, as it hit its 50 day MA. We got stopped out on the LVS short for a one dollar loss.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE VRSN QLIK WCRX SDS. Short TTM.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Inefficient Government
Recent developments within the Obama administration must be applauded. Did I really just say that? Free trade agreements with South Korea, extending Bush era tax cuts, a reduction in payroll taxes all demonstrate a willingness to compromise. His slight move to the center to appease his base (which is taking him to task for his actions too) is refreshing. Although we must recognize that it is one that was forced upon him after the mid term elections. America spoke loud and clear that they did not like the direction the country was heading in. And it certainly did not like the expansion of federal government. Inefficient government that is.
The Department of Education created by Jimmy Carter in 1979 has never seemed to live up to its billing. Ronald Reagan attempted to abolish the department due to its inadequate performance and squandering of money. In his own words, Reagan said, "education is the principal responsibility of local school systems, parents, teachers, citizen boards and state government." He went on to declare education that would "insure the local needs and preferences, rather than the wishes of Washington, to determine the education of our children." The OECD just this month echoed Reagans dissatisfaction with the program. American students are falling further behind the rest of the world. We rank below average in both math and science compared with other developed countries around the globe. My family is full of teachers, and this is in no way a breakdown on their part. Rather an inferior curriculum that government dictates.
Another department we have Jimmy Carter to thank for is the Department of Energy, conceived after the oil crisis in the late 1970's. As America sends billions of dollars every year to unfriendly nations, we have vast resources right here at home. Reserves that could ensure our energy dependence for decades to come, are off limits because of restrictions imposed by government. Energy Department statistics indicate up to 80% of off shore and 60% of onshore drilling sites are prohibited from access. These constraints are sending valuable jobs overseas. Almost every nation on earth is extracting oil and natural gas from their floors, ironically with our technology. If as the government states that drilling is unsafe, why are we supporting Brazil to drill with US taxpayers money, in waters three times as deep as we do in the Gulf? As Martin Feldman, a New Orleans federal judge ruled against the governments enforcement of off shore drilling in June of this year, said "if some drilling equipment are flawed, is it rational to say all are? Are all airplanes a danger because one was? Are all oil tankers like Exxon Valdez? All trains? All mines?" Two thumbs up for Judge Feldman.
Do Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ring a bell? These two GSE (government sponsored enterprises) are widely thought to be partly responsible for the recent economic meltdown. Requiring hundreds of billions of US taxpayer subsidies to stay alive, they continue to bleed money at an alarming rate. Another shining example of government failure. Amtrak. 40 years of losses and still requiring federal funding. The USPS. An agency that receives government assistance, is excused from paying almost any taxes, and can borrow from the government at below market rates. And it still can not make a profit, hampered by private competition which are not afforded all the luxuries of the US Postal System. The US Census Bureau just reported its fiscal situation is in dire straights. Costs well beyond projections. The Department of Transportation underestimating budgets and finishing projects (such as tunnels, bridges and roads) way behind schedule. I can go on and on but I think you get the message.
When I began my idea for this article, I tried real hard to determine any segment of government that was effective. The military was high on the list. We must comprehend that Washington is filled with plenty of academia, and devoid of practitioners. We need employees that have been through the ups and downs of the business cycle. People that have met budgets, hired workers and adhered to deadlines in the real world. Government is out of touch, power hungry and incompetent. And they want to take over our healthcare system, the best in the world? Thank goodness for Virginia judge Henry E. Hudson who ruled this month that parts of Obamacare are unconstitutional. Let the overpowering grip of government start is slow and steady descent.
The Department of Education created by Jimmy Carter in 1979 has never seemed to live up to its billing. Ronald Reagan attempted to abolish the department due to its inadequate performance and squandering of money. In his own words, Reagan said, "education is the principal responsibility of local school systems, parents, teachers, citizen boards and state government." He went on to declare education that would "insure the local needs and preferences, rather than the wishes of Washington, to determine the education of our children." The OECD just this month echoed Reagans dissatisfaction with the program. American students are falling further behind the rest of the world. We rank below average in both math and science compared with other developed countries around the globe. My family is full of teachers, and this is in no way a breakdown on their part. Rather an inferior curriculum that government dictates.
Another department we have Jimmy Carter to thank for is the Department of Energy, conceived after the oil crisis in the late 1970's. As America sends billions of dollars every year to unfriendly nations, we have vast resources right here at home. Reserves that could ensure our energy dependence for decades to come, are off limits because of restrictions imposed by government. Energy Department statistics indicate up to 80% of off shore and 60% of onshore drilling sites are prohibited from access. These constraints are sending valuable jobs overseas. Almost every nation on earth is extracting oil and natural gas from their floors, ironically with our technology. If as the government states that drilling is unsafe, why are we supporting Brazil to drill with US taxpayers money, in waters three times as deep as we do in the Gulf? As Martin Feldman, a New Orleans federal judge ruled against the governments enforcement of off shore drilling in June of this year, said "if some drilling equipment are flawed, is it rational to say all are? Are all airplanes a danger because one was? Are all oil tankers like Exxon Valdez? All trains? All mines?" Two thumbs up for Judge Feldman.
Do Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ring a bell? These two GSE (government sponsored enterprises) are widely thought to be partly responsible for the recent economic meltdown. Requiring hundreds of billions of US taxpayer subsidies to stay alive, they continue to bleed money at an alarming rate. Another shining example of government failure. Amtrak. 40 years of losses and still requiring federal funding. The USPS. An agency that receives government assistance, is excused from paying almost any taxes, and can borrow from the government at below market rates. And it still can not make a profit, hampered by private competition which are not afforded all the luxuries of the US Postal System. The US Census Bureau just reported its fiscal situation is in dire straights. Costs well beyond projections. The Department of Transportation underestimating budgets and finishing projects (such as tunnels, bridges and roads) way behind schedule. I can go on and on but I think you get the message.
When I began my idea for this article, I tried real hard to determine any segment of government that was effective. The military was high on the list. We must comprehend that Washington is filled with plenty of academia, and devoid of practitioners. We need employees that have been through the ups and downs of the business cycle. People that have met budgets, hired workers and adhered to deadlines in the real world. Government is out of touch, power hungry and incompetent. And they want to take over our healthcare system, the best in the world? Thank goodness for Virginia judge Henry E. Hudson who ruled this month that parts of Obamacare are unconstitutional. Let the overpowering grip of government start is slow and steady descent.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Friday Night Charting
Markets today finished again in lackluster fashion. Again the adage, never sell a dull market. Volume grew due to quadruple witching Friday. Tech outperformed as both ORCL RIMM finished in the black. Both those previously mentioned did finish on their lows though. For the week the Nasdaq and S&P both finished up very slightly. On the positive side leading stocks acted better today.
Stocks showing exact buy points include: All these will be 3 week tight patterns. F @17.02, ETN @101.89, WLL @116.34, PCAR @57.85, APH @54.17, SOA @23.53, AAPL @325.16, IBM @146.40, NSC @63.77, JRCC @24.09, SBUX @33.19, HAS @50.27, ADI @38.70, PAY @41.57, ADP @47.27. Flat bases are: NBL @86.99, CP @67.13, SKS @12.32, KKR @13.85. Cup with handles are: FDX @96.33, NVDA @15.43, EFX @36.09. Cup bases without handles are: QLIK @26.57, CNI @68.09. As always demand volume of 50% greater than the daily average.
Stocks near the 50 day and the corresponding prices are: PCLN @390, CCL @42, ANR @49, CPX @27, APC @64.50, DVN @70, XOM @69, BTU @57, RIG @67.50, UPL @45, PTEN @20.20, CVLT @29.20, MCHP @32, QSFT @26, DD @47.75, NTAP @52.25, EBAY @29.15, AKAM @50, CSX @62, KSU @46, UNP @90, BHP @85.50, ABX @50, RIO @67.50, SWC @19, JWN @41, XRX @11.50, URI @20, SCCO @44, PM @59, ARMH @18, BRCM @42, OVTI @28, SIMG @6.50, BEAV @36, TQNT @11, MSCC @22, MIPS @13.25, FOE here.
Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were: WYNN ERF ARUN EMN STX EGO PCP LTD. Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru their 50 day MAs and those prices are: DISCA @42.85, SMG @52.25, MOS @69.
Stocks near their 200 day MAs are: EPD @38, RRC @42, PSA @97, DTV @38.50, NEM @58, NYX @29.50, ITUB @22, PNC here.
ORCL had an earnings gap up today. Others that have had earnings gap ups to see how they perform, which is bullishly are: CRM FNSR FFIV JOYG GPC LULU WFMI COH EL FL DKS ANF.
Stocks building the right side of their bases and warrant inclusion on a watch list are: MT MTL X NUE AMTD BLK BCSI PAYX.
ETFs in the news are: FXI @42, its 200 day. XLE formed a 3 weeks tight pattern with a buy point of 67.10. XLB XME also trading very tightly, stubbornly refusing to give up gains.
Stocks showing weakness are: LVS which is still facing resistance at the 50 day. VIT can be shorted @36, its 50 day MA. CIB looks headed to its 200 day. High volume selloffs under the 50 day for CIB which looks headed for 200 day support @56.25. Short strength in CIB. MCD looks headed for 200 day support after living below the 50 day on big volume down days. AMT same pattern. Below the 50 day now for a bit. 200 day support on AMT @46.25. Short AAP under 65, and ROST under 62, both their 50 day MAs. MCO now losing Its 50 day MA.
Changes in portfolio are: Long WCRX @22.30 as it broke thru its 50 day MA on big volume. Short LVS @46 as it hit 50 day resistance.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X VRSN DE GPS WCRX SDS. Short LVS.
Stocks showing exact buy points include: All these will be 3 week tight patterns. F @17.02, ETN @101.89, WLL @116.34, PCAR @57.85, APH @54.17, SOA @23.53, AAPL @325.16, IBM @146.40, NSC @63.77, JRCC @24.09, SBUX @33.19, HAS @50.27, ADI @38.70, PAY @41.57, ADP @47.27. Flat bases are: NBL @86.99, CP @67.13, SKS @12.32, KKR @13.85. Cup with handles are: FDX @96.33, NVDA @15.43, EFX @36.09. Cup bases without handles are: QLIK @26.57, CNI @68.09. As always demand volume of 50% greater than the daily average.
Stocks near the 50 day and the corresponding prices are: PCLN @390, CCL @42, ANR @49, CPX @27, APC @64.50, DVN @70, XOM @69, BTU @57, RIG @67.50, UPL @45, PTEN @20.20, CVLT @29.20, MCHP @32, QSFT @26, DD @47.75, NTAP @52.25, EBAY @29.15, AKAM @50, CSX @62, KSU @46, UNP @90, BHP @85.50, ABX @50, RIO @67.50, SWC @19, JWN @41, XRX @11.50, URI @20, SCCO @44, PM @59, ARMH @18, BRCM @42, OVTI @28, SIMG @6.50, BEAV @36, TQNT @11, MSCC @22, MIPS @13.25, FOE here.
Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were: WYNN ERF ARUN EMN STX EGO PCP LTD. Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru their 50 day MAs and those prices are: DISCA @42.85, SMG @52.25, MOS @69.
Stocks near their 200 day MAs are: EPD @38, RRC @42, PSA @97, DTV @38.50, NEM @58, NYX @29.50, ITUB @22, PNC here.
ORCL had an earnings gap up today. Others that have had earnings gap ups to see how they perform, which is bullishly are: CRM FNSR FFIV JOYG GPC LULU WFMI COH EL FL DKS ANF.
Stocks building the right side of their bases and warrant inclusion on a watch list are: MT MTL X NUE AMTD BLK BCSI PAYX.
ETFs in the news are: FXI @42, its 200 day. XLE formed a 3 weeks tight pattern with a buy point of 67.10. XLB XME also trading very tightly, stubbornly refusing to give up gains.
Stocks showing weakness are: LVS which is still facing resistance at the 50 day. VIT can be shorted @36, its 50 day MA. CIB looks headed to its 200 day. High volume selloffs under the 50 day for CIB which looks headed for 200 day support @56.25. Short strength in CIB. MCD looks headed for 200 day support after living below the 50 day on big volume down days. AMT same pattern. Below the 50 day now for a bit. 200 day support on AMT @46.25. Short AAP under 65, and ROST under 62, both their 50 day MAs. MCO now losing Its 50 day MA.
Changes in portfolio are: Long WCRX @22.30 as it broke thru its 50 day MA on big volume. Short LVS @46 as it hit 50 day resistance.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X VRSN DE GPS WCRX SDS. Short LVS.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Thursday Night Charting
Markets rallied Thursday somewhat with the Nasdaq showing the way. Volume came in below average however. Economic forecasts were all better than expected. Philly Fed, initial jobless claims and housing starts came in above views. After hours both RIMM ORCL were higher after earnings reports were rosy.
Stocks showing specific buy points are: PM @60.97, M @26.42, NSC @63.77 all flat bases. FDX @96.33, ARMH @19.38, EFX @36.09 all cup with handles.
Stocks nearing there 50 day MAs are: RIG @67, UPL @45.30, ERF @28, ABX @50, OVTI @28, FOE @14.25, MIPS @13.25. Stocks that found 50 day support today were WYN CCL NBL EMN NTAP ARUN UNP PCP XRX PFE ROST MON. WYNN is now back above its 50 day MA after an upgrade.
Stocks near there 200 day MAs are: PSA @96, NEM @58, EGO @17, CREE @64, ITUB @22, PNC here. BBT can be bought thru its 200 day @27.75.
NUE had a positive reaction to negative earnings guidance. A bullish sign. X, a holding of ours rallied in sympathy. INTU broke out of a flat base @49.04 on big volume. Did not pull the trigger because of the recent earnings miss though.
Gap ups still holding strong are: BLL WFMI LULU PSS EL FL DKS GES ANF.
ETFs: FXI buy @42, 200 day. EWG @23.75, EWA @24.75, both buys at their 50 day MAs.
Stocks showing weakness include: BIDU which now looks broken. Another down day in big volume. AEM plunged 6% in huge volume undercutting its 50 day MA. Reits SPG, VNO PSA continue to perform poorly. LVS @46 VIT@36, can both be shorted there as they move back to their 50 day MAs which could now be resistance.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE VRSN GPS SDS.
Stocks showing specific buy points are: PM @60.97, M @26.42, NSC @63.77 all flat bases. FDX @96.33, ARMH @19.38, EFX @36.09 all cup with handles.
Stocks nearing there 50 day MAs are: RIG @67, UPL @45.30, ERF @28, ABX @50, OVTI @28, FOE @14.25, MIPS @13.25. Stocks that found 50 day support today were WYN CCL NBL EMN NTAP ARUN UNP PCP XRX PFE ROST MON. WYNN is now back above its 50 day MA after an upgrade.
Stocks near there 200 day MAs are: PSA @96, NEM @58, EGO @17, CREE @64, ITUB @22, PNC here. BBT can be bought thru its 200 day @27.75.
NUE had a positive reaction to negative earnings guidance. A bullish sign. X, a holding of ours rallied in sympathy. INTU broke out of a flat base @49.04 on big volume. Did not pull the trigger because of the recent earnings miss though.
Gap ups still holding strong are: BLL WFMI LULU PSS EL FL DKS GES ANF.
ETFs: FXI buy @42, 200 day. EWG @23.75, EWA @24.75, both buys at their 50 day MAs.
Stocks showing weakness include: BIDU which now looks broken. Another down day in big volume. AEM plunged 6% in huge volume undercutting its 50 day MA. Reits SPG, VNO PSA continue to perform poorly. LVS @46 VIT@36, can both be shorted there as they move back to their 50 day MAs which could now be resistance.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE VRSN GPS SDS.
Thursday AM
Markets for the third day in a row closed near session lows. More troubling was the increased volume and weakness in leading stocks. BIDU lost its 50 day in massive volume for example. Dollar strength after Spain debt issues did not help US Indexes. Many leading stocks are trying to consolidate and find support at key moving averages. Other like we previously discussed are showing bearish, high volatility sell signals.
Stocks near buy points are few: BAM @31.99 a flat base. KO @65.06 a 4 weeks tight pattern. NVDA @15.43 a cup with handle and BWC @26.01 a cup with high handle.
Stocks looking for 50 day support are: F @15.50, HOT @57, APC @62, DVN @70, MUR @67, UPL @45, AA @13.75, PTEN @20, CBI @28, CHKP @42.25, TIBX @19.25, EMN @79.50, RADS @18.90, NTGR @31, EBAY @29, FDX @90, UNP @90, BHP @85, ABX @50, RIO @67, VALE @33, AEM @78, CTSH @66, SBUX @30, XRX @11.50, URI @19.90, SKS @11, PM @58.50, CAVM @34, OVTI @28, CIS @19, BEAV @35.75, AGCO @44.25, ROST here. Stocks that found 50 day support Wednesday are NBL QLIK PX OPEN ARUN. MRX can be bought thru 28.75 and WCRX THRU 22.30, both their 50 days. And both found recent support at their 200 day.
Stocks nearing 200 day support are: EPD @38, PSA @97, SPG @91, DTV @38.30, RIMM @58.50, LTD @27, IBN @44, CREE @64, ATHR @32, ITUB @22, PNC here, RGC here.
JOYG had a nice earnings gap up. Very bullish behavior indeed. FNSR continued its nice run up post gap up with an upgrade Wednesday.
ETFs near MAs are: GLD @133, its 50 day. FXI @42 its 200 day. TBT is firmly above its 200 day now.
Stocks showing weakness are: DISCA SMG TTM all showing an inability to break thru their 50 day MAs. SUN PSA BVN have all lost their 50 days now. BIDU we discussed earlier. NTAP can be shorted under 52, and PVH under 64, both their 50 day MAs. ALB had an outside negative reversal day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE GPS VRSN SDS.
Stocks near buy points are few: BAM @31.99 a flat base. KO @65.06 a 4 weeks tight pattern. NVDA @15.43 a cup with handle and BWC @26.01 a cup with high handle.
Stocks looking for 50 day support are: F @15.50, HOT @57, APC @62, DVN @70, MUR @67, UPL @45, AA @13.75, PTEN @20, CBI @28, CHKP @42.25, TIBX @19.25, EMN @79.50, RADS @18.90, NTGR @31, EBAY @29, FDX @90, UNP @90, BHP @85, ABX @50, RIO @67, VALE @33, AEM @78, CTSH @66, SBUX @30, XRX @11.50, URI @19.90, SKS @11, PM @58.50, CAVM @34, OVTI @28, CIS @19, BEAV @35.75, AGCO @44.25, ROST here. Stocks that found 50 day support Wednesday are NBL QLIK PX OPEN ARUN. MRX can be bought thru 28.75 and WCRX THRU 22.30, both their 50 days. And both found recent support at their 200 day.
Stocks nearing 200 day support are: EPD @38, PSA @97, SPG @91, DTV @38.30, RIMM @58.50, LTD @27, IBN @44, CREE @64, ATHR @32, ITUB @22, PNC here, RGC here.
JOYG had a nice earnings gap up. Very bullish behavior indeed. FNSR continued its nice run up post gap up with an upgrade Wednesday.
ETFs near MAs are: GLD @133, its 50 day. FXI @42 its 200 day. TBT is firmly above its 200 day now.
Stocks showing weakness are: DISCA SMG TTM all showing an inability to break thru their 50 day MAs. SUN PSA BVN have all lost their 50 days now. BIDU we discussed earlier. NTAP can be shorted under 52, and PVH under 64, both their 50 day MAs. ALB had an outside negative reversal day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW X DE GPS VRSN SDS.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Wednesday Morning
Markets for the second consecutive day finished off their highs of the day. Volume was on thew slow side, but the action among leading stocks was worrisome. PCLN CRM NFLX OPEN FFIV APKT were among the leaders that were wounded. Are markets getting frothy here? Perhaps. By the look of actions on downgrades recently, maybe. VECO WNR, recent recommendations were both hammered on downgrades in last couple of days. We were fortunate not to enter those positions. However the market has been sleeping the last week. As the adage goes never short a dull market. As always let the price action of the market guide us, not our opinions or emotions. Consumer prices, Empire Index, industrial production and capacity utilization will all be out today. JOYG reports earnings.
Stocks showing specific buy points are: IBM @147.63, GR @87.64, ORLY @62.50, TAP @50.55, KKR @13.85, all flat bases. EFX @36.09 a cup with handle formation and JBL @17.58 a double bottom with handle formation.
Stocks nearing their 50 day MAs and where they need to find support are: HOT @57, CCL @42, NBL @81.25, AA @13.75, ERF @28, PX here, NTAP @52, TDC @40, KSU @45, UNP @89.50, RIO @67, JCI @36, FDO @48, TSLA @26, KO @62.25, PM @58.50, LTD here, MCO @26, CIS @19, FOE @14.25, BX @13.50, MIPS @13, MCHP @33, OVTI @27.75. CMH HS both found 50 day support Tuesday. SMG can be bought if it moves thru 52.25, its 50 day MA and WCRX can be bought thru 22.25, its 50 day MA also. It found recent support at its 200 day MA.
Stocks near 200 day MA and there corresponding prices are: RGC @14.50, STX here, RIMM @58, PFE here, GPS @20.60, CRUS @14.75, CREE @64, NYX here, ZION @22.50, GCI @14.50, ITUB @22, PNC @58, SPLS @21. BBT can be bought thru 27.75, its 200 day MA.
Par stars CMI WLT acted admirably today. CVX COP stubbornly holding onto gains and ORCL continues to act strongly. Stocks building the right side of their bases and to be watched closely are: CVS PAYX AMTD MTL. ETFs near MAs are: MOO @50.25, its 50 day MA. EWZ can be bought thru 78, its 50 day MA. FXI 200 day is 42. TBT now firmly above its 200 day in big volume. A sea change for that ETF. XHB is building its right side.
Stocks showing weakness are: LVS which can be shorted back toward its 50 day @45. Same goes for VIT @36 and TTM @30.25. If the stocks break thru those numbers cut the losses very quickly. SUN can be shorted under 38.50, its 50 day. BIDU AKAM YUM all clinging to their 50 day MAs and need to hold here. WYNN under par now and can it be headed for 200 day support @90? Recent action in the REIT space looks troubling. VNO needs to hold 81, its 200 day. SPG PSA losing their 50 day MAs.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE VRSN SDS.
Stocks showing specific buy points are: IBM @147.63, GR @87.64, ORLY @62.50, TAP @50.55, KKR @13.85, all flat bases. EFX @36.09 a cup with handle formation and JBL @17.58 a double bottom with handle formation.
Stocks nearing their 50 day MAs and where they need to find support are: HOT @57, CCL @42, NBL @81.25, AA @13.75, ERF @28, PX here, NTAP @52, TDC @40, KSU @45, UNP @89.50, RIO @67, JCI @36, FDO @48, TSLA @26, KO @62.25, PM @58.50, LTD here, MCO @26, CIS @19, FOE @14.25, BX @13.50, MIPS @13, MCHP @33, OVTI @27.75. CMH HS both found 50 day support Tuesday. SMG can be bought if it moves thru 52.25, its 50 day MA and WCRX can be bought thru 22.25, its 50 day MA also. It found recent support at its 200 day MA.
Stocks near 200 day MA and there corresponding prices are: RGC @14.50, STX here, RIMM @58, PFE here, GPS @20.60, CRUS @14.75, CREE @64, NYX here, ZION @22.50, GCI @14.50, ITUB @22, PNC @58, SPLS @21. BBT can be bought thru 27.75, its 200 day MA.
Par stars CMI WLT acted admirably today. CVX COP stubbornly holding onto gains and ORCL continues to act strongly. Stocks building the right side of their bases and to be watched closely are: CVS PAYX AMTD MTL. ETFs near MAs are: MOO @50.25, its 50 day MA. EWZ can be bought thru 78, its 50 day MA. FXI 200 day is 42. TBT now firmly above its 200 day in big volume. A sea change for that ETF. XHB is building its right side.
Stocks showing weakness are: LVS which can be shorted back toward its 50 day @45. Same goes for VIT @36 and TTM @30.25. If the stocks break thru those numbers cut the losses very quickly. SUN can be shorted under 38.50, its 50 day. BIDU AKAM YUM all clinging to their 50 day MAs and need to hold here. WYNN under par now and can it be headed for 200 day support @90? Recent action in the REIT space looks troubling. VNO needs to hold 81, its 200 day. SPG PSA losing their 50 day MAs.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE VRSN SDS.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Tuesday Am
Markets finished the day mixed as a rally faded in the last 90 minutes of the day. Volume increased ever so slightly. Action from leading stocks was poor although many such as NFLX CMG AAPL all have made substantial runs and were due for normal pullbacks. Commodities rose, as China decided not to raise interest rates and tech lagged. Semis had a tough day. On tap for this morning is PPI, retail sales, and business inventories. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 215pm.
Stocks showing specific buy points are: CB @60.13, BAM @31.99, both flat bases. RADS @20.79, a cup base. FDX @96.33 in a cup with handle formation. Be careful yesterday 3 stocks rose above buy points only to finish near their lows. Not a good sign. They were JNPR VMW SMTC.
Stocks nearing their 50 day MA are: NBL here, UNP 89, FDO @48, CMG @220, LOGI @19.50, BX @13.50, AXTI @8, PM here. PFE rose above its 50 day MA yesterday in slightly higher volume after finding recent support at the 200 day.
Stocks nearing their 200 day MA are: VNO @81, RIMM @58, NYX @29.40, ZION @22.50, SPLS @21. Both NUE V pulling away strongly from their 200 day MA in last couple days in big volume. A good sign.
ORCL showed excellent relative strength Monday in big volume. BLL gap up still intact. CPO broke out from a flat base @46.16 Monday in big volume. VECO showed big relative strength among a weak semi group after breaking out of a double bottom base @47.83 on Friday.
Stocks looking weak are: MOS LVS both losing their 50 day MA. AMT can be shorted near 51 and CP near 64.50, both at their 50 day MAs. Both have displayed negative volume action on the way down recently. SPG can be shorted under 98, AKAM under 49.50, YUM under 49, all as they break down under their 50 day MAs.
Good luck. Apologize for the tardy post. Today is my birthday.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE VRSN SDS.
Stocks showing specific buy points are: CB @60.13, BAM @31.99, both flat bases. RADS @20.79, a cup base. FDX @96.33 in a cup with handle formation. Be careful yesterday 3 stocks rose above buy points only to finish near their lows. Not a good sign. They were JNPR VMW SMTC.
Stocks nearing their 50 day MA are: NBL here, UNP 89, FDO @48, CMG @220, LOGI @19.50, BX @13.50, AXTI @8, PM here. PFE rose above its 50 day MA yesterday in slightly higher volume after finding recent support at the 200 day.
Stocks nearing their 200 day MA are: VNO @81, RIMM @58, NYX @29.40, ZION @22.50, SPLS @21. Both NUE V pulling away strongly from their 200 day MA in last couple days in big volume. A good sign.
ORCL showed excellent relative strength Monday in big volume. BLL gap up still intact. CPO broke out from a flat base @46.16 Monday in big volume. VECO showed big relative strength among a weak semi group after breaking out of a double bottom base @47.83 on Friday.
Stocks looking weak are: MOS LVS both losing their 50 day MA. AMT can be shorted near 51 and CP near 64.50, both at their 50 day MAs. Both have displayed negative volume action on the way down recently. SPG can be shorted under 98, AKAM under 49.50, YUM under 49, all as they break down under their 50 day MAs.
Good luck. Apologize for the tardy post. Today is my birthday.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE VRSN SDS.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Weekend Warrior
Markets ended the week Friday with decent gains, with the Nasdaq taking the lead with an .8% advance. Leading stocks continue to shine. Volume came in slower across the board. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit at least 2 year highs. For the week the Nasdaq outperformed the other major indexes with a 1.8% gain followed by the S&P 500 with a 1.3% gain and the Dow 0.2% gain. Next week carries a bevy of economic reports, with PPI, CPI, Fed decision, housing starts, jobless claims, and retail sales.
Stocks with specific buy points are: CCL @45.00, PMTC @22.97, JNPR @36.10, BIDU @115.14, QCOM @49.55, GR @87.64, ORLY @62.50, PETM @39.80, CPO @46.16, SKS @12.32, M @26.42, SCCO @47.58, TAP @50.55, BMC @47.05, KKR @13.85. All those previously mentioned were flat bases. Cup with handles bases are: FDX @96.33, GS @171.71, EFX @36.09. Cup without handle bases are: VMW @89.28, CTXS @72.03, CLF @76.27. 4 week tight is KO @65.06. Double bottom bases are: NETL @34.60, CREE @76.24. CREE we flagged as it broke above its 200 day near 65 on 11/24.
Stocks at or near their 50 day MAs and the corresponding prices are: MOS here, XRX @11.75, WSM @33.80, LTD @31, M @24.50, PM @58.25, ARMH @18, MCO here, CIS @19, LOGI @19.50, AGCO @44, MOTR here, LYB @28, BWC @23.80, MGA @47, WYN @29, CNK @17.75, NBL here, PXP @28.50, ERF @28, PX @92, EMN @79, DD @47, BAM @30, AAPL @310, NTAP @52, HRC @39, IBM @143, BIDU here, ARUN @22, NSC @61.50, CNI @65, UNP @89, RIO @67, VALE @32.80, JOYG @78, INFY @68, HS @27.50, JWN @40.25, KMX @32, YUM here. XXIA showing real volume support recently at its 50 day.
Stocks near their 200 day MA are: RGC here, EPD @38, VNO @81, STX @14.90, RIMM @58, NEM @58, EGO @17, MRX @26, MT @34, NUE @41, NYX @29.50, ZION @22.50, BLK @170, ITUB @22, SPLS @21, CVS @32.10. BBT can be bought thru its 200 day @27.90.
Stocks that held their 200 day and now have or are about to overtake their 50 day MA which demonstrates the importance of 200 day support are: PSA held its 200 day @95, now just above par and its 50 day. SWK 200 day held @58 and surged above its 50 day on 12/2 and now trades near 65. PFE held its 200 day @16, now trying to break thru its 50 day. Put in a buy stop on PFE @17.35, clear of its 50 day. BUD found 200 day support near 54, now is possibly looking to challenge its 50 day near 60. Put in a buy stop on BUD @60.25. WCRX found 200 day support @19 a couple of weeks after an earnings plunge on 11/8. Put in a buy stop on WCRX just above its 50 day @22.25. WM found 200 day support 2 weeks ago, and Friday bursted thru its 50 day in healthy volume.
LULU PLL gapped up this week. Always a bullish move. Recent gap ups that continue to perform well are; FNSR WFMI COH PSS EL FL DKS ANF MXIM PAY VSH ATML.
Energy stocks to keep an eye on are NOV SLB which are trading very tightly after moving past recent consolidation. Very bullish. Is WNR establishing itself as one of the premier refiners. Its chart is telling us that. Up 100% since October with strong upside volume. Could the company be on HES radar screen?
As for short ideas. SMG lost its 50 day and has been swimming under it since 11/8. Could be headed for 200 day support at 48. BVN lost its 50 day in big volume. TTM can be shorted if it gets back to its 50 day at 30. LVS can be shorted under 44.50, its 50 day. WYNN just above par. Is it going to its 200 day MA near 90, or is it forming a flat base with a future potential buy point of 117.60? Our opinions dont mean jack. Let the price action and not our emotion or opinion, guide us.
Portfolio changes are: Long VRSN as it cleared a buy point thru 35.73 in a flat base on big volume.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA X CHRW DE GPS VRSN SDS.
Stocks with specific buy points are: CCL @45.00, PMTC @22.97, JNPR @36.10, BIDU @115.14, QCOM @49.55, GR @87.64, ORLY @62.50, PETM @39.80, CPO @46.16, SKS @12.32, M @26.42, SCCO @47.58, TAP @50.55, BMC @47.05, KKR @13.85. All those previously mentioned were flat bases. Cup with handles bases are: FDX @96.33, GS @171.71, EFX @36.09. Cup without handle bases are: VMW @89.28, CTXS @72.03, CLF @76.27. 4 week tight is KO @65.06. Double bottom bases are: NETL @34.60, CREE @76.24. CREE we flagged as it broke above its 200 day near 65 on 11/24.
Stocks at or near their 50 day MAs and the corresponding prices are: MOS here, XRX @11.75, WSM @33.80, LTD @31, M @24.50, PM @58.25, ARMH @18, MCO here, CIS @19, LOGI @19.50, AGCO @44, MOTR here, LYB @28, BWC @23.80, MGA @47, WYN @29, CNK @17.75, NBL here, PXP @28.50, ERF @28, PX @92, EMN @79, DD @47, BAM @30, AAPL @310, NTAP @52, HRC @39, IBM @143, BIDU here, ARUN @22, NSC @61.50, CNI @65, UNP @89, RIO @67, VALE @32.80, JOYG @78, INFY @68, HS @27.50, JWN @40.25, KMX @32, YUM here. XXIA showing real volume support recently at its 50 day.
Stocks near their 200 day MA are: RGC here, EPD @38, VNO @81, STX @14.90, RIMM @58, NEM @58, EGO @17, MRX @26, MT @34, NUE @41, NYX @29.50, ZION @22.50, BLK @170, ITUB @22, SPLS @21, CVS @32.10. BBT can be bought thru its 200 day @27.90.
Stocks that held their 200 day and now have or are about to overtake their 50 day MA which demonstrates the importance of 200 day support are: PSA held its 200 day @95, now just above par and its 50 day. SWK 200 day held @58 and surged above its 50 day on 12/2 and now trades near 65. PFE held its 200 day @16, now trying to break thru its 50 day. Put in a buy stop on PFE @17.35, clear of its 50 day. BUD found 200 day support near 54, now is possibly looking to challenge its 50 day near 60. Put in a buy stop on BUD @60.25. WCRX found 200 day support @19 a couple of weeks after an earnings plunge on 11/8. Put in a buy stop on WCRX just above its 50 day @22.25. WM found 200 day support 2 weeks ago, and Friday bursted thru its 50 day in healthy volume.
LULU PLL gapped up this week. Always a bullish move. Recent gap ups that continue to perform well are; FNSR WFMI COH PSS EL FL DKS ANF MXIM PAY VSH ATML.
Energy stocks to keep an eye on are NOV SLB which are trading very tightly after moving past recent consolidation. Very bullish. Is WNR establishing itself as one of the premier refiners. Its chart is telling us that. Up 100% since October with strong upside volume. Could the company be on HES radar screen?
As for short ideas. SMG lost its 50 day and has been swimming under it since 11/8. Could be headed for 200 day support at 48. BVN lost its 50 day in big volume. TTM can be shorted if it gets back to its 50 day at 30. LVS can be shorted under 44.50, its 50 day. WYNN just above par. Is it going to its 200 day MA near 90, or is it forming a flat base with a future potential buy point of 117.60? Our opinions dont mean jack. Let the price action and not our emotion or opinion, guide us.
Portfolio changes are: Long VRSN as it cleared a buy point thru 35.73 in a flat base on big volume.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA X CHRW DE GPS VRSN SDS.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
After Market Pondering
Markets closed the day in a lackluster session. Initially markets rose on the positive jobless claims, gave back those gains then rallied into the close. Leaders performed well, including LULU, which surged on a strong earnings report. Volume rose on the Nazz, and it may get a boost on after market news that FFIV NFLX will join the S & P 500.
Stocks sporting specific buy points are: IBM @147.03, SIAL @66.11, both flat bases. QCOM @49.55 a double bottom with handle. NETL @34.60, a double bottom. KO @65.06 a 3 weeks tight pattern. FDX now has a buy point of 96.33 in a cup with a handle base. Competitor UPS broke out of a flat base @70.10 last week and has continued to trade above that breakout level. Stocks sporting potential buy points are: MELI forming a possible 70.88 buy point in a double bottom base. The handle needs two more days to develop. CREE recently shook free from its 200 day MA that we flagged and now has a possible buy point of 76.24 in a double bottom base.
Stocks that should find 50 day support are: WYN @29, NBL @81, HNR @12.50, VRSN @34, EMN @79, DD @47, NTAP @52, BIDU @106, AKAM @50, ARUN @22, JOYG @74, JWN @41, ARMH @18.20, CIS @18.50, LOGI @19.50, MOTR @23, BWC @23.75. Stocks that have found solid 50 day support in the last couple of days are: LVS CVLT LTD AVGO. RADS is trading tightly above the 50 day MA after recently reclaiming the 50 day. XXIA finding big volume support at the 50 day MA after recently retreating to it. BAC blasted thru its 50 day today.
Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: VNO @81, MRX @26.25, NUE @41. IBN @44, ITUB @22, both foreign banks looking tenuous. ZION broke thru its 200 day MA today on strong volume. Put buy stops in on STX @15.50 and BBT @27.80 as they pass thru their 200 day MA.
FNSR trading well after its recent gap up.
ETFs MOO can be bought @50, its 50 day MA. FXI @42, its 200 day MA. TBT is right now at its 200 day MA.
Stocks looking weak are: TTM which gapped under its 50 day MA today. The Sensex has come under heavy pressure in the last two sessions. SPG can be shorted under 98, its 50 day. Big volume on the way down lately. AMT is losing its 50 day. NEM losing its battle with the 50 day MA too. Volume has been real heavy on the downside. Lets see if the 200 day @58 holds this time. YUM barely holding its 50 day and big volume on the way down today is not a good sign.
Sold MCD today for a $2 loss. Dropped below the 50 day. Discipline.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE SDS.
Stocks sporting specific buy points are: IBM @147.03, SIAL @66.11, both flat bases. QCOM @49.55 a double bottom with handle. NETL @34.60, a double bottom. KO @65.06 a 3 weeks tight pattern. FDX now has a buy point of 96.33 in a cup with a handle base. Competitor UPS broke out of a flat base @70.10 last week and has continued to trade above that breakout level. Stocks sporting potential buy points are: MELI forming a possible 70.88 buy point in a double bottom base. The handle needs two more days to develop. CREE recently shook free from its 200 day MA that we flagged and now has a possible buy point of 76.24 in a double bottom base.
Stocks that should find 50 day support are: WYN @29, NBL @81, HNR @12.50, VRSN @34, EMN @79, DD @47, NTAP @52, BIDU @106, AKAM @50, ARUN @22, JOYG @74, JWN @41, ARMH @18.20, CIS @18.50, LOGI @19.50, MOTR @23, BWC @23.75. Stocks that have found solid 50 day support in the last couple of days are: LVS CVLT LTD AVGO. RADS is trading tightly above the 50 day MA after recently reclaiming the 50 day. XXIA finding big volume support at the 50 day MA after recently retreating to it. BAC blasted thru its 50 day today.
Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: VNO @81, MRX @26.25, NUE @41. IBN @44, ITUB @22, both foreign banks looking tenuous. ZION broke thru its 200 day MA today on strong volume. Put buy stops in on STX @15.50 and BBT @27.80 as they pass thru their 200 day MA.
FNSR trading well after its recent gap up.
ETFs MOO can be bought @50, its 50 day MA. FXI @42, its 200 day MA. TBT is right now at its 200 day MA.
Stocks looking weak are: TTM which gapped under its 50 day MA today. The Sensex has come under heavy pressure in the last two sessions. SPG can be shorted under 98, its 50 day. Big volume on the way down lately. AMT is losing its 50 day. NEM losing its battle with the 50 day MA too. Volume has been real heavy on the downside. Lets see if the 200 day @58 holds this time. YUM barely holding its 50 day and big volume on the way down today is not a good sign.
Sold MCD today for a $2 loss. Dropped below the 50 day. Discipline.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X DE SDS.
Early Morning Thoughts
Markets showed modest gains after a selloff near the open. Leading stocks underperformed, and the best groups of the day were hardly the cream of the crop. Newspapers, books and banks. The laggards of the day were from leading sectors such as miners, energy. The light volume distorts the picture very much as well. Markets seem to be consolidating near their recent highs. Weekly jobless claims will be out this morning. LULU PLL report earnings today.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: XRX @12.05, TAP @50.55, BMC @47.05 all flat bases. KO still remains near its 65.06 3 weeks tight pattern. VMW sporting a 89.28 buy point in a cup base. XOM @72 in a double bottom base.
Stocks and there 50 day MAs which should show support are: IPI @31, LVS @45, NBL @81, WLL @105, SWN @35.75, DD @47, BIDU @107, NSC @61, JWN @40, SKS @10.80, WSM @33.80, AVGO @24.25, CIS @18, AGCO @46, MOTR @22. MCD YUM LTD MCO all found support at their 50 day Wednesday. GOOG is now back above its 50 day.
Stocks that should find support at their 200 day include: RRC @42, PSA @96.50, VNO @81, MRX @26, MT @34.25. ZION took out its 200 day today barely and WM seems to be enjoying its 200 day support. Lets see if WM can challenge its 50 day about a dollar higher from here soon.
TRMB holding gains tightly after an 11/3 flat base breakout. GPC doing the same after its 12/2 flat base breakout. GES is filling in its gap up on light volume. A good sign. NYX looks good here. Just above its 50/200 day MA, as it looks like some longs were taken out 11/30. V continues to be halted near its 200 day MA. If it can shake loose put in a buy stop above 79. Two thumbs up for the free market regarding MA V. The stocks prevailed and finished higher despite hackers shutting down their websites this week.
KBR VECO both had negative reversals Wednesday. CP has lost its 50 day MA here in big volume. Can it be headed to its 200 day @60, where that MA has shown support 4 times already this year?
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA X GPS CHRW DE MCD SDS.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: XRX @12.05, TAP @50.55, BMC @47.05 all flat bases. KO still remains near its 65.06 3 weeks tight pattern. VMW sporting a 89.28 buy point in a cup base. XOM @72 in a double bottom base.
Stocks and there 50 day MAs which should show support are: IPI @31, LVS @45, NBL @81, WLL @105, SWN @35.75, DD @47, BIDU @107, NSC @61, JWN @40, SKS @10.80, WSM @33.80, AVGO @24.25, CIS @18, AGCO @46, MOTR @22. MCD YUM LTD MCO all found support at their 50 day Wednesday. GOOG is now back above its 50 day.
Stocks that should find support at their 200 day include: RRC @42, PSA @96.50, VNO @81, MRX @26, MT @34.25. ZION took out its 200 day today barely and WM seems to be enjoying its 200 day support. Lets see if WM can challenge its 50 day about a dollar higher from here soon.
TRMB holding gains tightly after an 11/3 flat base breakout. GPC doing the same after its 12/2 flat base breakout. GES is filling in its gap up on light volume. A good sign. NYX looks good here. Just above its 50/200 day MA, as it looks like some longs were taken out 11/30. V continues to be halted near its 200 day MA. If it can shake loose put in a buy stop above 79. Two thumbs up for the free market regarding MA V. The stocks prevailed and finished higher despite hackers shutting down their websites this week.
KBR VECO both had negative reversals Wednesday. CP has lost its 50 day MA here in big volume. Can it be headed to its 200 day @60, where that MA has shown support 4 times already this year?
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA X GPS CHRW DE MCD SDS.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Early Morning Thoughts
Stocks staged a seesaw session with the action turning decidedly negative by the end of the day. Volume was mediocre but the reaction from leaders and the reversal of many leading stocks intraday was not a positive sign at all. Was it attributed to a late dollar rally, or the government expanding its insider trading probe? I do not think the timing was a coincidence after Obama conceded defeat and gave in on the extension of the Bush taxes for all income brackets. Chinese stocks also took it on the chin on fears of an interest rate hike. COST has earnings today.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: VRSN @35.78, SIAL @66.11, AMP @55.16 all flat bases. KO sports a 65.06 buy point in a 3 weeks tight pattern.
50 day MAs that need to hold are: LVS @45, RIG @66, JNPR @33, RADS @18.60, YUM @49.50, LTD @30.30, DFS @18, CIS @18, MOTR @22. PM XXIA both finished strongly Tuesday in good volume after finding support at the 50 day. And both closed on their highs of the day after the market squandered nice early gains. PSA can be bought thru 100.25 its 50 day. VNO which we recently flagged at 80 for 200 day support, now lets see if it can challenge its 50 day on the upside. Buy spot would be thru 86, its 50 day.
CVS broke away from its 200 day MA Tuesday on decent volume. NUE can be bought thru 41.70, its 200 day MA. It was stopped there today. Wait for it to break thru. Energy names which performed admirably on a weak tape, which is bullish are, CVX CMI WLL.
Short opportunities could come from stocks showing negative outside reversal days. These include: PAAS ORLY CRZO. SLW which has had 2 major reversals days in the last month now. SWN is failing at its 200 day MA. CP can be shorted under 64, its 50 day MA. TTM can be shorted under 29, also its 50 day. TTM has had some wild action recently after hitting all time highs, not a real good sign. DTV which we flagged after losing its 50 day at 42, and we then said 200 day support looks likely next is happening. 200 day support for DTV @38 needs to hold. BBD looks very similar to DTV. It couldnt hold 21, its 50 day, now 18 its 200 day needs to hold.
Changes in portfolio include: Long DE after its flat base breakout in heavy volume @79.76. And MCD @80.10, also breaking out from a flat base on good volume. For protection the SDS looks overdone. We bought some today, and could see it challenging its 50 day MA @27.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH X CHRW GPS DE MCD SDS.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: VRSN @35.78, SIAL @66.11, AMP @55.16 all flat bases. KO sports a 65.06 buy point in a 3 weeks tight pattern.
50 day MAs that need to hold are: LVS @45, RIG @66, JNPR @33, RADS @18.60, YUM @49.50, LTD @30.30, DFS @18, CIS @18, MOTR @22. PM XXIA both finished strongly Tuesday in good volume after finding support at the 50 day. And both closed on their highs of the day after the market squandered nice early gains. PSA can be bought thru 100.25 its 50 day. VNO which we recently flagged at 80 for 200 day support, now lets see if it can challenge its 50 day on the upside. Buy spot would be thru 86, its 50 day.
CVS broke away from its 200 day MA Tuesday on decent volume. NUE can be bought thru 41.70, its 200 day MA. It was stopped there today. Wait for it to break thru. Energy names which performed admirably on a weak tape, which is bullish are, CVX CMI WLL.
Short opportunities could come from stocks showing negative outside reversal days. These include: PAAS ORLY CRZO. SLW which has had 2 major reversals days in the last month now. SWN is failing at its 200 day MA. CP can be shorted under 64, its 50 day MA. TTM can be shorted under 29, also its 50 day. TTM has had some wild action recently after hitting all time highs, not a real good sign. DTV which we flagged after losing its 50 day at 42, and we then said 200 day support looks likely next is happening. 200 day support for DTV @38 needs to hold. BBD looks very similar to DTV. It couldnt hold 21, its 50 day, now 18 its 200 day needs to hold.
Changes in portfolio include: Long DE after its flat base breakout in heavy volume @79.76. And MCD @80.10, also breaking out from a flat base on good volume. For protection the SDS looks overdone. We bought some today, and could see it challenging its 50 day MA @27.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH X CHRW GPS DE MCD SDS.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Monday Monday
Markets finished mixed Monday although again they did finish off the lows. The Nasdaq finished in the black for the fourth straight session. Commodities outperformed.
Stocks showing specific buy points include: DE @79.76, DHR @45.10, both flat bases. Cup with handle patterns are: CNK @18.91, AA @14.27, STT @46.07. NETL @34.60 a double bottom. XOM @72.00 a double bottom with handle. NDAQ is just above a 22.42 buy point in a cuo with handle.
Stocks that sould find support at their 50 day MA are: SUN @39, VRSN @33.80, JNPR @33, NTAP @52, CP @64, YUM @49.25, BID @41, WSM @33, TAP @48, ARMH @18, LOGI @19.25, BMC @44, MOTR @22, CCK @31. WYNN continues to hug its 50 day line right here just above par. CVLT bolted off its 50 day today.
DISCA can be bought thru 43.25 and NYX thru 29.50, both thru their 50 day MAs.
V can be bought thru 79 and STX thru 15.25, both thru their 200 day MAs. BCSI stormed up over 5% today. We flagged that one a couple weeks ago as it hugged its 50/200 day MA. AMTD had a decisive move thru its 200 day recently. NEM continues its move off its 200 day and then thru its 50 day. WM 200 day support @34 should hold.
GOOG INTU both trying to regain their 50 day MAs. Is FDX starting to form a handle in a cup base? 96.33 potential buy point. Give the handle 5 days to form.
Par stars all performed well today in a flat market. WLT WLL CMI FCX all finished in the black. WYNN finished flat.
Good luck.
The author
Stocks showing specific buy points include: DE @79.76, DHR @45.10, both flat bases. Cup with handle patterns are: CNK @18.91, AA @14.27, STT @46.07. NETL @34.60 a double bottom. XOM @72.00 a double bottom with handle. NDAQ is just above a 22.42 buy point in a cuo with handle.
Stocks that sould find support at their 50 day MA are: SUN @39, VRSN @33.80, JNPR @33, NTAP @52, CP @64, YUM @49.25, BID @41, WSM @33, TAP @48, ARMH @18, LOGI @19.25, BMC @44, MOTR @22, CCK @31. WYNN continues to hug its 50 day line right here just above par. CVLT bolted off its 50 day today.
DISCA can be bought thru 43.25 and NYX thru 29.50, both thru their 50 day MAs.
V can be bought thru 79 and STX thru 15.25, both thru their 200 day MAs. BCSI stormed up over 5% today. We flagged that one a couple weeks ago as it hugged its 50/200 day MA. AMTD had a decisive move thru its 200 day recently. NEM continues its move off its 200 day and then thru its 50 day. WM 200 day support @34 should hold.
GOOG INTU both trying to regain their 50 day MAs. Is FDX starting to form a handle in a cup base? 96.33 potential buy point. Give the handle 5 days to form.
Par stars all performed well today in a flat market. WLT WLL CMI FCX all finished in the black. WYNN finished flat.
Good luck.
The author
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Peak Oil
Recently I spent a fantastic family Thanksgiving dinner an intriguing matter was brought up. Peak oil. As I found myself surrounded by Democrats in the liberal turf of Conneticut, the only thing peaking was my curiousity. Eyes at the table were beaming, like the Christmas tree lights outside in the distance. In light of the circumstances (my first Thanksgiving Day with the girlfriends family), I respectfully kept silent. However my mind was racing to create my next blog piece to counter the frustration that was developing.
Pundits have long been predicting "Peak Oil". Incorrect forecasts of its demise have been spread since oil drilling began in Titusville PA in 1859. As early as 1914 our own Bureau of Mines Department claimed we had little more than 10 yrs before the country would exhaust all of its oil reserves. The U.S. Interior Department in 1939 and 1951 declared oil would vanish in 13 years. Jimmy Carter himself made the unbelievable remark that the entire globes oil supply would not last past 1990. What all these experts never factored in were the technological advances that would evolve to dispel their doomsday scenarios.
In 2006, Brazil had a mega discovery with its Tupi Field. Known as probably the greatest find in 30 years in this hemisphere, Brazil is now on the brink of becoming energy independent. The oil field potentially can yield 100 billion barrels of oil. Closer to home the locating of the Tiber Well in the Gulf of Mexico in 2009 was a massive unearthing. U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Alaska regions' Chukchi Sea can hold more than 80 billion barrels of oil. In the continental U.S. we have enormous reserves that are going untapped. The Green River formation in the Northwest U.S. holds almost 2 trillion (not a typo) barrels of crude.
Over 200 new oil discoveries were reported in 2009 alone. Not to mention gigantic finds in natural gas. Right here at home we have a 100 year supply of natural gas. Thanks to research and development we have the technology to drill these resources and declare our own energy independence. In the process creating sorely needed, well compensating jobs. Why cant we take the example from Brazil and not have to rely on dangerous regions of the world to supply us with what we have right here at home. Political interference which leads to excessive amounts of red tape is my educated guess.
I am for the continued advancement of all alternative energy sources. However oil must be the dominant means of any realistic energy conversation. In the continental United States where we have some of the most intrusive regulation on the planet, oil production increased for the first time in. This is a testament to the creativity and ingenuity of the American energy industry. There is an old adage on Wall Street. Stocks dont lie. People do. I am going to substitute numbers for stocks. And the numbers certainly are not lying regarding peak oil. Oil is being found in more places that we thought imaginable. Let us find and recover it to give ample time to make the transition to other alternative energy means.
Now am I suggesting my future aunt was fabricating her belief in Peak Oil. Of course not. Just the source of her facts attempting to establish a hysteria. The elite media at work embellishing the situation to their benefit. Surprised? I would expect nothing less.
Pundits have long been predicting "Peak Oil". Incorrect forecasts of its demise have been spread since oil drilling began in Titusville PA in 1859. As early as 1914 our own Bureau of Mines Department claimed we had little more than 10 yrs before the country would exhaust all of its oil reserves. The U.S. Interior Department in 1939 and 1951 declared oil would vanish in 13 years. Jimmy Carter himself made the unbelievable remark that the entire globes oil supply would not last past 1990. What all these experts never factored in were the technological advances that would evolve to dispel their doomsday scenarios.
In 2006, Brazil had a mega discovery with its Tupi Field. Known as probably the greatest find in 30 years in this hemisphere, Brazil is now on the brink of becoming energy independent. The oil field potentially can yield 100 billion barrels of oil. Closer to home the locating of the Tiber Well in the Gulf of Mexico in 2009 was a massive unearthing. U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Alaska regions' Chukchi Sea can hold more than 80 billion barrels of oil. In the continental U.S. we have enormous reserves that are going untapped. The Green River formation in the Northwest U.S. holds almost 2 trillion (not a typo) barrels of crude.
Over 200 new oil discoveries were reported in 2009 alone. Not to mention gigantic finds in natural gas. Right here at home we have a 100 year supply of natural gas. Thanks to research and development we have the technology to drill these resources and declare our own energy independence. In the process creating sorely needed, well compensating jobs. Why cant we take the example from Brazil and not have to rely on dangerous regions of the world to supply us with what we have right here at home. Political interference which leads to excessive amounts of red tape is my educated guess.
I am for the continued advancement of all alternative energy sources. However oil must be the dominant means of any realistic energy conversation. In the continental United States where we have some of the most intrusive regulation on the planet, oil production increased for the first time in. This is a testament to the creativity and ingenuity of the American energy industry. There is an old adage on Wall Street. Stocks dont lie. People do. I am going to substitute numbers for stocks. And the numbers certainly are not lying regarding peak oil. Oil is being found in more places that we thought imaginable. Let us find and recover it to give ample time to make the transition to other alternative energy means.
Now am I suggesting my future aunt was fabricating her belief in Peak Oil. Of course not. Just the source of her facts attempting to establish a hysteria. The elite media at work embellishing the situation to their benefit. Surprised? I would expect nothing less.
Weekend Warrior
Markets capped off a bullish week Friday with a nice reaction to a poor jobs number. Markets that open low, close on their highs on bearish news must be taken note of. Volume rose and leading stocks continued to make good headway. The S&P led the way this week with a 3% gain, followed by the Dow with a 2.6% gain and the Nasdaq finished 2.2% higher for the week. Energy and semis were strong once again on Friday while retail and financials were weaker.
Stocks with specific buy points are: HOT @60.10, NBL @86.10, VRSN @35.78, EMN @83.52, AAPL @321.40, TDC @42.08, IBM @147.63, QCOM @49.55, AAP @68.98, MCD @80.10, YUM @52.57, ENTR @10.45, XRX @12.05, SIAL @66.11, BMC @47.05, GR @87.64. All those previously mentioned were flat bases. Cup bases are: VMW @89.28, XLNX @29.50. Cup with handle bases are: AA @14.27, VALE @34.47. Double bottom with handle bases are: XOM @72.00, MRVL @21.10. Cup with high handle bases are: IPI @35.24, CCL @45.00. And KO has formed a 3 weeks tight pattern with a buy point @65.06. As always demand high volume thru the breakout price indicated above.
Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: JNPR @33, CNI @65, CP @64, JWN @40, YUM @49, LTD @30.25, M @24. Stocks that found solid support, meaning bounced off their 50 day this week in heavy volume were: MOS WYNN COP DOW MUR WLL IBM BIDU DD CLF BHP FCX RIO AEM SCCO CCK CRUS PPG TRMB PCP LOGI HNZ PTEN RAI. Stocks that could look to break back above their 50 day MA are: SMG @52.25, PSA @100.25, PM @55.75, CIB @66. ORCL moved back above the 50 day on Friday.
Stocks that found strong support at the 200 day MA this week are: NEM SWK PFE MRX MTL X BUD CREE WCRX VNO EGO. Stocks that could break thru their 200 day MA this week are: VLTR @23.40, CEDC @28.25, SWN @38.40. Both natural gas stocks RRC UPL are trading nicely after breaking thru their 200 day recently.
Steel seems to be breaking free from its laggard commodity status. MTL MT X all broke free from their 200 day MA this week. Whats up with NUE though? Closes lower on the day and perhaps can be paired up against the bullish steel equities previously mentioned.
Bullish gap ups to pay attention to this week were PAY ANF. MCK broke out this week from a flat base and ATU broke out from a cup with handle pattern.
Par Stars in the news this week: WLT moving ahead by more than 6%, even after disclosing a buy out of Canadas' Western Coal Corp. FCX surging 11% on the week. CMI WLL had a good week. WYNN was subdued this week but finding 50 day support. Who could be the next among the Par Star group. NKE CAT UNP? Studies have shown that the vast majority of stocks that move past $90 a share eventually move to par.
ETFs EWA EWZ EWG all have moved back above their 50 day MA. RSX broke out of a cup with handle base this week but volume was missing. See if it kicks in this week. XLF is now back above its 200 day MA and TBT after finding support at its 50 day MA @34 looks to challenge its 200 day @38.50. If it can proceed thru that 200 day the charge ahead can really pick up steam.
Short possibilities include DTV which we flagged as it lost its 50 day recently. Is it on its way back to its 200 day? BBD looks like its 50 day MA is providing resistance now. Short near that line if it can not get thru it again. VIT had a negative outside reversal day on Friday.
Good luck.
The author holds positions in CAKE NVDA ARMH GPS X CHRW.
Stocks with specific buy points are: HOT @60.10, NBL @86.10, VRSN @35.78, EMN @83.52, AAPL @321.40, TDC @42.08, IBM @147.63, QCOM @49.55, AAP @68.98, MCD @80.10, YUM @52.57, ENTR @10.45, XRX @12.05, SIAL @66.11, BMC @47.05, GR @87.64. All those previously mentioned were flat bases. Cup bases are: VMW @89.28, XLNX @29.50. Cup with handle bases are: AA @14.27, VALE @34.47. Double bottom with handle bases are: XOM @72.00, MRVL @21.10. Cup with high handle bases are: IPI @35.24, CCL @45.00. And KO has formed a 3 weeks tight pattern with a buy point @65.06. As always demand high volume thru the breakout price indicated above.
Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: JNPR @33, CNI @65, CP @64, JWN @40, YUM @49, LTD @30.25, M @24. Stocks that found solid support, meaning bounced off their 50 day this week in heavy volume were: MOS WYNN COP DOW MUR WLL IBM BIDU DD CLF BHP FCX RIO AEM SCCO CCK CRUS PPG TRMB PCP LOGI HNZ PTEN RAI. Stocks that could look to break back above their 50 day MA are: SMG @52.25, PSA @100.25, PM @55.75, CIB @66. ORCL moved back above the 50 day on Friday.
Stocks that found strong support at the 200 day MA this week are: NEM SWK PFE MRX MTL X BUD CREE WCRX VNO EGO. Stocks that could break thru their 200 day MA this week are: VLTR @23.40, CEDC @28.25, SWN @38.40. Both natural gas stocks RRC UPL are trading nicely after breaking thru their 200 day recently.
Steel seems to be breaking free from its laggard commodity status. MTL MT X all broke free from their 200 day MA this week. Whats up with NUE though? Closes lower on the day and perhaps can be paired up against the bullish steel equities previously mentioned.
Bullish gap ups to pay attention to this week were PAY ANF. MCK broke out this week from a flat base and ATU broke out from a cup with handle pattern.
Par Stars in the news this week: WLT moving ahead by more than 6%, even after disclosing a buy out of Canadas' Western Coal Corp. FCX surging 11% on the week. CMI WLL had a good week. WYNN was subdued this week but finding 50 day support. Who could be the next among the Par Star group. NKE CAT UNP? Studies have shown that the vast majority of stocks that move past $90 a share eventually move to par.
ETFs EWA EWZ EWG all have moved back above their 50 day MA. RSX broke out of a cup with handle base this week but volume was missing. See if it kicks in this week. XLF is now back above its 200 day MA and TBT after finding support at its 50 day MA @34 looks to challenge its 200 day @38.50. If it can proceed thru that 200 day the charge ahead can really pick up steam.
Short possibilities include DTV which we flagged as it lost its 50 day recently. Is it on its way back to its 200 day? BBD looks like its 50 day MA is providing resistance now. Short near that line if it can not get thru it again. VIT had a negative outside reversal day on Friday.
Good luck.
The author holds positions in CAKE NVDA ARMH GPS X CHRW.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Thursday Night Charting
Markets put in another big performance Thursday. Volume was above average but only slightly. Perhaps investors are waiting for tomorrows jobs report. Semis and banks were strong today. The banks which have been non existent on the leader page came to life today. The outlook for a recovering housing market helped the sector.
Stocks near buy points are: XOM @72.00, MRVL @21.10, VECO @46.35, all double bottom with handles. AA @14.27, a cup with handle. NETL @34.60. Demand strong volume on the breakout.
Stocks near MAs that can be bought as they pass thru the following prices are: BBD @21.30, PM @58.25, SMG @52.25, ORCL @28.30, PSA @100.25, NEM @61.50. All those were their 50 day MAs.
Stocks finding support at their 50 day MAs and rebounding in heavy volume which is very bullish are: DE COP MUR APD PX IBM DD
CP BHP RIO SWC COST PTEN RAI PPG. CEDC that we flagged a couple weeks ago as it looked to be rounding out a long saucer base pattern hugging its 50 day MA. Today it surged 12% and stopped right at its 200 day MA. Lets see if that line can now be taken out and build its right side. RHI MAN are currently a little further along in building their right sides of their bases than CEDC. Are they seeing better employment numbers ahead? Lets hope so. can not really get any worse.
Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru their 200 day MAs are: SWN @38.25, VLTR @23.30. RRC should now find support above 43 its 200 day MA. Look how LOW exploded thru its 200 day in the last 2 days. FNSR had a bullish gap up today. It found support along its 200 day MA. ANF also had a bullish gap up today.
ETFs that can be bought as they pass thru their 50 day MA are: EWZ thru 78, FXI thru 45.40.
Shorts that can be put on are: BIDU under 104, its 50 day. OPEN here being extended and having that outside reversal day 11/24 and a weak reversal on 12/1 which was a Dow 250 plus day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH GPS CHRW X.
Stocks near buy points are: XOM @72.00, MRVL @21.10, VECO @46.35, all double bottom with handles. AA @14.27, a cup with handle. NETL @34.60. Demand strong volume on the breakout.
Stocks near MAs that can be bought as they pass thru the following prices are: BBD @21.30, PM @58.25, SMG @52.25, ORCL @28.30, PSA @100.25, NEM @61.50. All those were their 50 day MAs.
Stocks finding support at their 50 day MAs and rebounding in heavy volume which is very bullish are: DE COP MUR APD PX IBM DD
CP BHP RIO SWC COST PTEN RAI PPG. CEDC that we flagged a couple weeks ago as it looked to be rounding out a long saucer base pattern hugging its 50 day MA. Today it surged 12% and stopped right at its 200 day MA. Lets see if that line can now be taken out and build its right side. RHI MAN are currently a little further along in building their right sides of their bases than CEDC. Are they seeing better employment numbers ahead? Lets hope so. can not really get any worse.
Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru their 200 day MAs are: SWN @38.25, VLTR @23.30. RRC should now find support above 43 its 200 day MA. Look how LOW exploded thru its 200 day in the last 2 days. FNSR had a bullish gap up today. It found support along its 200 day MA. ANF also had a bullish gap up today.
ETFs that can be bought as they pass thru their 50 day MA are: EWZ thru 78, FXI thru 45.40.
Shorts that can be put on are: BIDU under 104, its 50 day. OPEN here being extended and having that outside reversal day 11/24 and a weak reversal on 12/1 which was a Dow 250 plus day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH GPS CHRW X.
Wednesday Recap
Markets surged Wednesday after strong starts pre open overseas. Both German and China reported strong factory activity. Adding fuel to the fire was our jobs number. Only thing missing today was higher volume. But leading stocks really showed their muster. Stocks that are showing specific buy points are: APC @67.78, AA @14.27, both cup with handles. XOM @72.00, MRVL @21.10, both double bottom with handles. DOW @33.07, a cup with high handle.
Stocks near MAs that can be bought if they pass thru that MA in big volume and close there are: BBD @21.25, CVX @83.50, ORCL @28.25, PSA @100.25, AMT @51.75. All previous mentioned were their 50 day MA. Stocks that found 50 day support today were: DE MOS EMN SPG IBM CNI BHP RIO HS CCK WYN BID. RIG @65, BIDU @105 can be bought if that price previously mentioned holds on. If BIDU breaks below 104, it can be shorted.
Stocks that found support at their 200 day MA today were: PFE MRX. They can be bought here if that line continues to hold. SWN can be bought if it can break above 38.25, its 200 day MA.
RHT had a bullish gap up Wednesday. CMI has become the newest member of our "par stars". Will PSA be next? WYNN had a big volume move off 50 day support Wednesday and FCX WLT WLL all continue to perform well.
ETFs that had big volume support at their 50 day MA are: JJC TBT MOO. EWZ can be bought if it breaks thru its 50 day @78, and FXI can be bought thru 45.25, its 50 day.
11/23 outside reversal day for TTM foreshadowed its recent struggles. Its 5th huge volume decline over the last 6 days. Its 50 day of 29 better hold. JKS RIMM both finished in the red on a strong tape.
We bought X @50.15 as it broke away from its 200 day Wednesday.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X.
Stocks near MAs that can be bought if they pass thru that MA in big volume and close there are: BBD @21.25, CVX @83.50, ORCL @28.25, PSA @100.25, AMT @51.75. All previous mentioned were their 50 day MA. Stocks that found 50 day support today were: DE MOS EMN SPG IBM CNI BHP RIO HS CCK WYN BID. RIG @65, BIDU @105 can be bought if that price previously mentioned holds on. If BIDU breaks below 104, it can be shorted.
Stocks that found support at their 200 day MA today were: PFE MRX. They can be bought here if that line continues to hold. SWN can be bought if it can break above 38.25, its 200 day MA.
RHT had a bullish gap up Wednesday. CMI has become the newest member of our "par stars". Will PSA be next? WYNN had a big volume move off 50 day support Wednesday and FCX WLT WLL all continue to perform well.
ETFs that had big volume support at their 50 day MA are: JJC TBT MOO. EWZ can be bought if it breaks thru its 50 day @78, and FXI can be bought thru 45.25, its 50 day.
11/23 outside reversal day for TTM foreshadowed its recent struggles. Its 5th huge volume decline over the last 6 days. Its 50 day of 29 better hold. JKS RIMM both finished in the red on a strong tape.
We bought X @50.15 as it broke away from its 200 day Wednesday.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA CHRW GPS X.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Tuesday Recap
Markets tried in vain for an afternoon comeback, but those efforts went unnoticed. Volume picked up adding another distribution day. Nasdaq leaders PCLN AAPL GOOG EBAY BIDU ARUN all performed weakly. Gold miners and restaurants were among the strong groups, while banks were among the worst groups. For the month the Nasdaq finished down slightly at 0.4%. Perhaps a healthy rest. With the number of bullish money managers is very high, I am starting to take a more bearish view on the markets. I have been small and neutral now for a few weeks.
Stocks near specific buy points are: BLL @66.36, CPX @29.23, GSM @17.30, all three week tight patterns. HAS @48.88, a flat base pattern.
Since I have become slightly bearish I will start with equities I am considering shorting. BIDU under 104, BVN under 50, both their 50 day MA. ARUN @22, AMT @51.50, both on a rebound to their 50 day. AVGO had a very bearish reversal today after hitting an all time high (a recent IPO that came public in 8/09). I will have in a buy stop on SDS (bearish index ETF) @27.85, if it can get thru its 50 day MA there. WCRX lost its 200 day MA Tuesday. Not a good sign at all.
That being said we must always be on the lookout for possible buy spots as I am a technician. Stocks that can be bought as they go thru there MAs are: CNI @65.25, RADS @18.70, both their 50 day MA. CRUS is holding its gap up thru 15, which is also its 50 day MA. VLTR thru 23.20, its 200 day MA. X thru 49.50, its 200 day MA also, which has proven to be resistance 4 times now since July of this year. NEM EGO both rallied off their 200 day MA this week as well. CREE RIMM both showed nice strength today on a weak tech tape, and both their 200 day MA providing nice support.
50 day MAs which better hold are: IPI @30, MOS @67, WYNN @101, DOW @30.25, NBL @80, RIG @65 (golden cross), AA @13, VMW @80, ARBA @19.25, EMN here, IBM @141, QCOM @45.75, DD @46, UNP @87, BHP @82.50, DOV @54, GPC @47, MCD @77, YUM @49, SCCO @41, XXIA @15, NTGR @30, LRCX @44, CCK @30.50, KO @61.75, SIAL @62, BMC @43, KBR @26, MRVL @18.50. If these 50 day MAs fail to hold they can be shorted.
200 day MAs are: CVX @78, SWK @58, MRX @26, PFE here, BUD @53.25.
ETFs TBT bounced off its 50 day near 34, JJC was strong, and FXI can be bought near 42, its 200 day MA. Other stocks I like are SOA @20.50, BKI a real illiquid stock, but whose chart has demonstrated excellent relative strength as of late. CRZO WLL both strong energy performers Tuesday.
Bought small positions in CHRW thru 73.42 flat base point, and GPS thru 21.15 as it broke thru consolidation hugging its 200 day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA GPS CHRW.
Stocks near specific buy points are: BLL @66.36, CPX @29.23, GSM @17.30, all three week tight patterns. HAS @48.88, a flat base pattern.
Since I have become slightly bearish I will start with equities I am considering shorting. BIDU under 104, BVN under 50, both their 50 day MA. ARUN @22, AMT @51.50, both on a rebound to their 50 day. AVGO had a very bearish reversal today after hitting an all time high (a recent IPO that came public in 8/09). I will have in a buy stop on SDS (bearish index ETF) @27.85, if it can get thru its 50 day MA there. WCRX lost its 200 day MA Tuesday. Not a good sign at all.
That being said we must always be on the lookout for possible buy spots as I am a technician. Stocks that can be bought as they go thru there MAs are: CNI @65.25, RADS @18.70, both their 50 day MA. CRUS is holding its gap up thru 15, which is also its 50 day MA. VLTR thru 23.20, its 200 day MA. X thru 49.50, its 200 day MA also, which has proven to be resistance 4 times now since July of this year. NEM EGO both rallied off their 200 day MA this week as well. CREE RIMM both showed nice strength today on a weak tech tape, and both their 200 day MA providing nice support.
50 day MAs which better hold are: IPI @30, MOS @67, WYNN @101, DOW @30.25, NBL @80, RIG @65 (golden cross), AA @13, VMW @80, ARBA @19.25, EMN here, IBM @141, QCOM @45.75, DD @46, UNP @87, BHP @82.50, DOV @54, GPC @47, MCD @77, YUM @49, SCCO @41, XXIA @15, NTGR @30, LRCX @44, CCK @30.50, KO @61.75, SIAL @62, BMC @43, KBR @26, MRVL @18.50. If these 50 day MAs fail to hold they can be shorted.
200 day MAs are: CVX @78, SWK @58, MRX @26, PFE here, BUD @53.25.
ETFs TBT bounced off its 50 day near 34, JJC was strong, and FXI can be bought near 42, its 200 day MA. Other stocks I like are SOA @20.50, BKI a real illiquid stock, but whose chart has demonstrated excellent relative strength as of late. CRZO WLL both strong energy performers Tuesday.
Bought small positions in CHRW thru 73.42 flat base point, and GPS thru 21.15 as it broke thru consolidation hugging its 200 day.
Good luck.
The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA GPS CHRW.
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