Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Thursday Game Plan

Markets exploded to the upside Wednesday as central banks around the world announced coordination plans to try and help alleviate the Euro crisis. Volume expanded across the board, as liquidity will eventually be thrust into the capital markets. The S&P 500 rose 4.3% retaking its 10 week MA. A 40 week test looms at 1262. The Nasdaq gained 4.2%, also retaking its 10 week MA today. The day saw some breakouts as well which have been rare recently. Today the energy sector yielded some nice breakouts. INT took out a 42.22 cup with handle on trade 163% above daily average volume. FTI took out a 50.30 cup with handle on trade 48% above normal. ECL took out a 56.41 cup with handle today on trade 455% above normal (breakouts are considered valid if volume is 40% greater than avg daily vol.). Others broke out today but volume did not confirm the move. They include BUD CBI V URI NBL. Energy continued its winning ways as the greenback slipped. XLE is now approaching its 40 week MA again. Put in a buy stop on that ETF @72.25. Banks decided to join the party today with the XLF up 6%, taking out its 10 week in the process. MS rose 11%, GS JPM 8%. The transports have been leaders and the IYT can be purchased with a buy stop above the 200 day @90.25. Stocks in that group which have formed valid bases are CNI NSC UNP. Leaders outperforming today and reaching all time highs were SWI up 7%, VRSK QCOR both up 5%. We mentioned to keep an eye on stocks demonstrating relative strength on weak tapes. The XRT did manage to take out its 10 and 40 week MAs today. Action in the group was bifurcated today however. M finished near a multi year high. Others fell as they reached new highs and reversed. They included NKE COST FAST ROST. BBBY DKS TSCO ULTA reversed from their highs of the session buy the end of the day. The semis had a strong day as the SMH reclaimed its 10 week MA and rose almost 6%. That has been an under performer and I would look to short that ETF near 200 day resistance at 31. As we always keep an eye on relative strength. Relative weakness should be paid attention to as well. Today that we seen from RL AMZN GNC KSU TIF FIO CJES. TIF met almost exact 40 week resistance after a poor earnings report Tuesday. Tomorrow ULTA LULU report.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup with handles PPG 90.10, RAX 45.56, FFIV 113.70, FTNT 26.30, UNP 104.26, NSC 76.30, CNI 80.54, ABV 34.89, AAP 71.10, MELI 90.09, BEAV 40.14, COH 66.64, OXY 101.75, PXP 37.01. Double bottom with handles are JKHY 33.83, USB 26.74, JOYG 93.94, APC 84.52, CLR 72.39, PXD 97.20. Flat bases are DG 40.81, ED 59.99, IBM 190.63, ALXN 70.52. Cup with high handles are DEO 86.10, GIS 40.35.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are NVDA 16.20, FDX 88.75, SGI 16.15, ORCL 31.70, AKAM 29.60, JEC 42.25, TROW 58, DE 82, CMI 100.25, COP 72.25, KEG 15.20, ARW 37.20, DHR 49.50, NUE 40. Stocks that retook their 40 week MAs today were WSM ARMH ASML QCOM NVLS CERN CTXS PMTC SAP HSY CPHD XRAY EMR HON IP USB PAY CE FMC PX CAT JOYG PH PLL CVX EOG XOM EXXI NOV CBS. Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are MDRX 19.20, XRAY 35.80, EMR 51.75, CAT 97, EOG 100, CBS 25. WPI found 40 week support today.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are WFM 68.55, CHKP 56.50, CELG 64.20. Stocks that retook their 10 week MAs today were PCP LTD TAP EXPD ACN ATHN INTU NUAN CMG BIDU WY AMGN BMY BBT RIO DOW EMN BHI HAL SU TCK X. NUAN can be bought at 10 week support at 23.50. BBBY found 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are LULU 50.25, ADSK 36, BIDU 135, SWK 67, MAKO 30.15, DFS 24.05, TPX 60, PCLN 505. Stocks that met 40 week resistance today were LULU TIF ADP ORCL KO AKAM JEC MAKO AXP KEG.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are HSY 58, CPHD 36.30, WYNN 122. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were RL WFM ADI FE CTSH EMC KO JAZZ NTRS BWA SWN VLO WYNN. SCSS can be shorted with a sell stop of 17.80, as it loses 10 week support.

Good luck.

The author is flat. We sold FE at 44.36 as it met 10 week resistance. We were fortunate for the upgrade it caught today. We covered AMGN just before the open at 56.45. Again very fortunate.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Wednesday Game Plan

Markets were slightly bifurcated Tuesday as the S&P 500 eked out a small gain, while the Nasdaq lost .5%. All in all not giving back really much any of Mondays bountiful gains. The close was a little disheartening, and intraday the S&P 500 met hard resistance at its 10 week MA, and could not close above the 1200 level. The Nasdaq was again lower on some of the larger names which make up the composite. WYNN down 4%, AMZN 3%. QCOM had a bad outside day. Defensive names outshined today, not what you would like to see as fuel for a potential move higher. XLU retook its 10 week MA, and both KO HSY were up more than 1%. WMT climbed back above its prior 58.06 double bottom with handle from 11/8. Banks closed hard upon their lows, and after the close S&P downgraded many of the names credit ratings. For some more positive news, energy continued its ways upward. Perhaps the recent moves northward in oil prices are forecasting growth ahead. The XLE rose 1.7%, with XOM retaking its 10 week and leader COG gaining 4%. GNC is in the process of completing a 3 week tight pattern if it can finish the week in that range. The SDS did fall below its 40 week MA today but did manage to close near its high of the day. Lets keep an eye on JJC as it continues to be repelled at its 10 week MA. Could be a clue to see if the risk on trade could be coming back.

Stocks with specific buy points that should be included on a watch list are cup with handles MELI 90.09, AAP 71.10, BUD 59.57, NSC 76.30, UNP 104.26, FTI 50.30. Double bottom with handles include CBI 40.10, URI 27.42, CLR 72.39, PXD 97.20. DG 40.81 in a flat base.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are JEC 42.15, USB 25.15, EOG 100.35, EXXI 30.40, OXY 95.50, PXP 34.20, CBS 25.20. EFX retook its 40 week today. Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are DKS 37.70, CNI 74.05, TIBX 26, CELG 59.25, CXO 92.50. Stocks that received 40 week support are BEAV VMW CPO CBOE ABX.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are WFM 62.75, KLAC 41.75, NVLS 31.70, ABX 49. CHKP APC both lost 40 week support today. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are LULU 50.25, ARMH 27.90, UPS 70, CERN 60.30, KO 67.05, HSY 56.50, CPHD 33, NOV 71. MDRX FMC PLL all met 40 week resistance today.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are PCP 163, CMG 320.50, BMY 31.80, COP 68.60. Stocks that retook their 10 week MAs today were BBBY COST DLTR TSCO SO ED ABV GIS WPI ADS APA RRC. Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are UA 76.75, VFC 132, MCD 90.90, SBH 18.45, INTC 23.45, ABV 32.50, DEO 81.05, JKHY 31.05, PMTC 18.60, RHT 46.30, IP 26.35, V 91, SCCO 28.75, XOM 76.25, CRZO 25, DHR 45.95, NUE 36. Stocks that received 10 week support today were DECK HXL INTC SAP ALXN XRAY PAY CLF SM NUS.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are RL 147.50, LTD 41.60, ADI 34.75, TAP 40.25, ATHN 58, ORCL 31, JAZZ 39.75, DFS 23.75, DOW 26.10, CVX 99.50. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were PCP KLAC JNPR INTU NUAN BIDU BMY PNC FCX NEM EMN MON DVN X. SCSS can be shorted with a 17.70 sell stop trigger as it loses 10 week support.

Good luck.

The author is long FE. Short AMGN. We repurchased FE today at 43.09, and shorted AMGN at 10 week resistance at 56.16. Tight leash on the short as it can retake its 10 week quickly.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Tuesday Game Plan

Markets rebounded in a healthy fashion Monday as Black Friday and another Euro "band aid" was announced. It gained impressively in the last hour, just when it looked as if things were about to fall apart. Volume was up sharply compared to Fridays levels but below average. The Nasdaq outperformed with a 3.5% gain, against the S&P 500s 2.9% advance. The S&P 500 stalled near an important round number of 1200. Just in front of that is 10 week resistance at 1204. A move above the 10 week on strong volume would be nice. SDS, a double bearish S&P ETF, met 10 week resistance today but did manage to find support at the 40 week. Breakouts were basically nonexistent today, which did not bolster confidence. However, the action of the tape must be respected. Some more valid bases are starting to develop among the strong stocks that consolidated during this ongoing correction (they will be discussed in the next paragraph). On greenback weakness today, energy stocks were powerful. XLE recaptured its 10 week MA on decent volume. My favorite COG retook its 78.75 double bottom buy point, and CXO retook its 40 week. IYT also reclaimed its 10 week today although volume was soft. KSU, the leader of the pack, advanced more than 5% on robust volume, and remains one of a few overall that are still above recent buy points. It took out its 62.86 cup base buy point on 10/27. XLU encountered stiff 10 week resistance today, and ED had a bad reversal intraday and finished UNCH. XRT met hard 40 week resistance and closed in its lower half of the trading range today despite record Black Friday figures. DECK VFC COH were the cream of the crop today. All three reclaimed their 10 week MAs and were up at least 6.5%, with COH up a devilish 6.66%. TSCO BBBY WMT finished near their lows for the day. SMH rose 3% today, below the Nasdaqs 3.5% gain. It is readying itself for an eventual 10 week test at 30. I would short it there. Contrasting the leader/laggard in this group SIMO was higher by over 7%, closing near highs for the day, while AVGO just barely finished higher, just escaping a negative outside day. Let see how this market plays out. We must be ready for bullish and bearish scenarios. As they say, the best trade is normally the hard trade. Their does seem to be a lot of skepticism about todays move so perhaps their will be some further follow through. I am not in that camp, but more importantly I follow the tape, and not my own opinions. That is how we are measured. Our P&Ls. So trade prudently and accordingly. TIF reports tomorrow.

Stocks near specific buy points and to be put on a watch list should the markets sentiment improve further are cup with handles MELI 90.09, BUD 59.57, NSC 76.30, FTNT 26.30, JKHY 33.83, COH 66.64, FFIV 113.70, RAX 45.56, FTI 50.30, INT 42.22, ECL 56.41. Double bottom with handles are CBI 40.10, CXO 102.07, CLR 72.39. Double bottom is WPI 72.16 and V 95.92 in a flat base pattern.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are RL 147, COST 83, LTD 41.65, TSCO 69.40, WFM 68.05, ADP 50.10, EMC 23, ATHN 58, ORCL 31, BIDU 130, AMGN 56.40, JAZZ 39.80, PNC 51, DOW 26.25, PX 99. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were COST DLTR ULTA INTC SO INFA HANS GIS ADS PNC BBT CLF FCX NEM DOW EMN MON COP DVN XOM RRC. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week resistance and their sell stop spots are SCSS 17.70, WSM 34.75, NUS 44.75.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are AMZN 200, NVLS 33.10, CERN 60.40, HSY 56.50, CPHD 32.95, MAKO 30.10, DFS 24, PPG 84.50. Stocks that met 40 week resistance today were LULU WSM QCOM ACN GILD MAKO EFX FMC APC PXP. ABX can be shorted with a sell stop under 49, as it loses 40 week support.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim 10 week support and their buy stop spots are ABV 32.65, JNPR 21.50, INTU 51.55, HANS 90.30, BMY 31.75, WPI 67.85, ADS 97.30, BBT 22.55, FCX 36.50, NEM 66.10, EMN 37.75, X 24.50. Stocks that retook their 10 week MAs today were DECK COH NKE UA VFC HXL TIF QCOM DEO UPS IBM SGI VMW ADSK NUAN RHT SAP GOOG ALXN XRAY IP CBOE V TROW SCCO APC DHR NUE. Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are DPZ 30, SBUX 41.10, CBOE 26, SCCO 28.85, CRZO 25, NOV 64, NUE 36. MDRX found 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are MDRX 19.70, CTXS 70.75, PMTC 20.90, JEC 42.15, PAY 44, EFX 35, JOYG 87.50, PLL 52.40, EOG 100.25, EXXI 30.50, PXP 33.75, CBS 25.20. Stocks that retook their 40 week MAs today were BEAV UNP CHKP CPO AMGN CXO USO NBL. Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are PCP 155, JBHT 43.05, CPO 50, URI 24.25, NBL 88.75.

Good luck.

The author is flat. We sold FE early today for a $1 gain overall. Will look to repurchase if it trends back to its 40 week and holds.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets capped off an ugly shortened week Friday with the indexes closing near their lows for the day. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have now finished lower for 7 days in a row. The Nasdaq lost 5.1% and the S&P 500 4.7%. They also have had lots of trouble since late October when they both briefly pierced their 200 day MAs to the upside. Both benchmarks had massive October returns and now look as if they may be ready to test the lows once again. This type of volatility is typical in bear markets. Bottoms normally occur in a long rounded fashion. The SDS, which I believe has been a pretty reliable indicator, this week was up 10% and reclaimed both its 50/200 day MAs. It is in the process of forming a double bottom pattern with a buy point of 28.26. That is a long way from here, and positions could have been initiated on a break above those long term trend lines this week. Although economic news here was mixed, (revisions to GDP were revised lower, but jobless claims remained below the 400K mark), news from abroad was concerning. China had a disappointing manufacturing report which indicated a slowdown, and Germany also showed evidence of a weakening economy. These two powerhouses are worrisome. This news of course bolstered the greenback, giving the UUP almost a 2% weekly gain. The ETF has formed a 22.72 cup base buy point, but from a technicians point of view the cup is V shaped, which is more prone to failure. Of course commodities had a tough week. Ag charts have looked pretty sick for awhile now. AGU down 7 % for the week was the worst. GLD has been encountering hard resistance at its 10 week. Oil lost 1% on the week. Stick to the leaders there where stocks like COG FTI, both exhibited relative strength by finishing higher Friday. Transports and semis had a troubling week as well with QCOM SIMO both losing 7%. KSU lst 8%, UNP 7%. The pessimism seems to be reaching a feverish pace, and perhaps we could see a rally, we certainly look oversold here. In these times look for relative strength as these could be the first to rally if we see some upward movement on the indicies. These would include GNC ORLY WMT VRSK QCOR. XLU found 40 week support Friday as investors sought safety. Stocks forming bullish cup with handles and their buy points are AAP 70.10, FTI 50.30.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stops are COH 58, CMG 294, LTD 37.85, WFM 62.90, AAPL 362, FFIV 97, JAZZ 34.25, URI 23.75. DKS BUD TIBX CPO WPI all lost 40 week support Friday. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are TIF 70.25, ARMH 28, VMW 91.50, CHKP 54.25, CPO 50.10, AMGN 55.60, CPHD 32.95, MAKO 30, WPI 63.75, SM 72.10. Stocks that met 40 week resistance Friday were BEAV PCP TIF FE VMW CHKP RAX CBOE.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are ROST 84.25, TJX 58.15, WSM 34.75, CTXS 64, SWK 59, EMR 46.80, MA 340.50, PAY 39.45. Stocks that lost 10 wee support Friday were GOOG EXXI DG SBUX TSCO NVLS SGI. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are VFC 131, DG 38.75, DLTR 78, ULTA 68.25, QCOM 53, IBM 181.50, ALXN 66, ADS 97, V 91, TROW 51.50, ABX 48.60, PPG 80.30, APC 74, NUS 45.50, DHR 46. Stocks that met 10 week resistance Friday were NKE UA KLAC QCOM DEO CNI IP ABX PPG CRZO CBS NUS NUE.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are DPZ 30, FAST 36.95, M 29.05, MCD 90.70, SBH 18.25, BUD 55, GLNG 37, KSU 59.25, NSC 69, UNP 94, FIO 27.95, PMTC 18.20, RAX 38.80, HUM 79.25, DE 72, CAT 86, CXO 87, CJES 18.25, EOG 87.50, KEG 12, INT 37, NBL 84. Stocks that found 10 week support Friday were ROST SCSS TJX CTXS EMR EFX CE FMC JOYG PH NOV OXY ECL ARW. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are CBOE 26.10, NUE 36.20.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are DECK 92, HXL 21.25, BBBY 55.50, COST 79, HD 35.50, INTC 21.95, IBM 171, NUAN 20.50, CELG 59.10. Stocks that found 40 week support Friday were WFM KLAC ABV DEO AAPL FFIV CBI CLR. FE (I am long), can be bought with a buy stop above its 40 week MA at 42.40. HRL retook its 40 week MA Friday.

Good luck.

The author owns FE.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Friday Game Plan

Markets were pounded Wednesday ahead of a Thanksgiving holiday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell for the 6th consecutive day, indeed a rarity. Volume decreased ahead of that half day Friday. News from both Europe and China weighed heavily. Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, failed to sell 1/3 of their bonds at auction. Chinese PMI fell below the imperative 50 (signaling growth), for the first time in two years. The greenback climbed over 1% on this news and hit commodities hard. X fell 7.5%, CLF 6%, NUE 5%. You get the picture. QCOM a recent earnings standout plunged almost 5% Wednesday surrendering both 10/40 week support in the process. This is certainly not a time to be a hero, and traders should adjust their position sizes to be prudent in this environment. It is a good time however to study and see what is demonstrating solid relative strength. These can be the first to jump out of the gates once the benchmarks can find some footing. It could be awhile but obviously no one has a crystal ball. Stocks that have RS lines at new highs ahead of actual stock price moves into new high ground are FAST SBH VRSK. Stocks nearing previous buy points are HUM, retreating to its prior 80.74 double bottom buy point it took out on Halloween. EL actually bounced off its 106.52 double bottom buy point on Wednesday on a horrible tape, which it gapped out from on 11/3. Some retail gave back little ground Wednesday as well were DECK UA VFC.

Stocks that can shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stop spots are COH 58.10, CMG 293, LTD 37.80, WFM 62.70, ATHN 50, FFIV 97, WPI 63.60. Stocks that lost 40 week support Wednesday were BEAV TIF QCOM DEO CNI UNP JKHY HRL CBOE NBL SM. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are TIF 70, VMW 91.50, HSY 56.40, AMGN 55.70, CPHD 32.80, MAKO 30, DFS 24, ABX 49.10. AMGN met 40 week resistance Wednesday.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are DG 38.50, ROST 84, TJX 58.05, FDX 76, MA 340, PAY 39, ARW 32.50. Stocks that lost 10 week support Wednesday were PAQ QCOM DEO TRN UPS IBM JNPR ADSK INFA JKHY RHT IP SCCO PPG APC COP CRZO RRC CBS NUS NUE DHR. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are NKE 91.60, BBBY 60, DLTR 78, ULTA 68.75, IBM 181, V 91.25. UA MDRX ALXN all met 10 week resistance Wednesday.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support include HXL 21.10, BBBY 55.15, COST 79, HD 35.55, INTC 21.95, KLAC 42.10, BUD 56.60, AAPL 363, FTNT 21.50, GIS 37.80, CELG 59.10, ADS 90.75, CLR 61.80, FTI 44. Stocks that found 40 week support Wednesday were COH DKS FL KLAC ABV TIBX (now down 6 days in a row), CPO RAX CBI URI CLR. JBHT can be bought with a buy stop above 200 day resistance at 43.15.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support include DPZ 30, FAST 36.75, M 29, MCD 90.50, ORLY 72, SBH 18.25, SCSS 18, SBUX 41, WMT 55.15, SIMO 15.50, CNI 73.20, NSC 69, CTXS 64, PMTC 18.25, RAX 38.75, JEC 37.05, HUM 79, CAT 86, JOYG 78.40, PH 74.25, CXO 86.75, CJES 18.30, COG 72.50, EOG 87.50, EXXI 26.95, KEG 12, NBL 84, OXY 86. Stocks that found 10 week support Wednesday were BEAV TGI WSM NVLS SGI EMR HON EFX FMC INT. UA can be bought with a buy stop above 77.30, 10 week resistance.

Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving.

The author owns FE. We bought at the close Wednesday at 41.90. Its a "safe" utility play which lost 5.5% so far this week and the XLU found 40 week support Wednesday. Tight stop at Wednesdays low.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Wednesday Game Plan

Markets closed slightly lower Tuesday on quiet volume. The S&P 500 has now closed lower for 5 consecutive days. The Nasdaq managed to finish UNCH and find support at the big round number of 2500. Volume was light, confirming the recent trend. The SMH has now also finished in the red for 5 straight days and has after losing its 10 week MA yesterday met resistance there again today. NVLS lost 5% today ADI 3%, but leaders INTC KLAC although both falling managed to find support at their 10 week MAs. The XLE closed right at 10 week support. Stocks in the group not so lucky to hold 50 day support were APA DVN XOM. Stick with the leaders as always which include COG and two finds today FTI INT. IYT also found 10 week support at the close, although it looks rather ominous. Some action in the sector has been troubling. UNP Monday was off 3.5% in heavy volume, although its handle is still intact. Again follow the leaders such as KSU, trading near all time highs. One more industry that was noteworthy today were the utilities. XLU pierced 10 week support today in big volume. My favorite in that group remains FE which is destined for a 40 week test near 42. Both SO ED surrendered 10 week support today. DE reports earnings Wednesday.

Stocks setting up specific buy points in valid bases are cup with handles INT 42.22, RAX 45.56, BEAV 40.14, FTI 50.30 (needs one more day to complete its handle). Double bottom with handles include BUD 59.57, MDRX 21.20, CPO 53.13, CBS 26.94.

Stocks that can be bought near 40 week support are SM 72.05, CLR 62, URI 24.40, CELG 59.05, GIS 37.35, CPO 50, TIBX 26, NUAN 20.50, UNP 96.25, JBHT 43.05, CNI 74.05, ABV 31.15, FE 42.10, KLAC 42.10, TIF 70, LTD 38, HD 35.50, FL 21.40, DKS 37.75, BEAV 36.10. Stocks that found 200 day support today were WFM QCOM RAX CBOE CPO NBL. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are PAG 20.20, MDRX 19.40.

Stocks that can be bought near 10 week support are NUE 35.95, JOYG 78.25, CAT 86, PPG 80, FMC 76.25, CE 40.10, HON 49, EMR 47, SAP 56, RHT 46, PMTC 18.20, JKHY 31, WMT 55.10, SBUX 41, MCD 90.50, M 29, DPZ 30. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are COH 60.50, DECK 104. ALXN NEM both retook their 10 week MAs today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are DG 38.40 (negative reversal on earnings today), TJX 57.75, TRN 25.75, IBM 179.50, ADSK 30.75, INFA 43.75, IP 26.40, APC 73.75, COP 67.50, ECL 52.40, NUS 45.20. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were HXL SO PAYX PNC CLF DE SU X.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are VFC 131, BBBY 60, COST 83, DLTR 78, ULTA 69, TXN 29.50, EMC 23.05, INTU 51, ORCL 31, HANS 89.80, JAZZ 40, ADS 97, SU 29.50. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were XRAY TROW EMN MON UA DLTR TIF ED INTU.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are MAKO 30, CPHD 32.75, DFS 24, LULU 50.10, AMZN 200, KO 67.05, AMGN here. WSM ACN CHKP AMGN MAKO EFX EXXI PXD all met 40 week resistance today. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance and their sell stop spots are VMW 90.75, HRL 28.35 (negative reversal on earnings). NVLS MON both lost 40 week support today.

Good luck.

We flattened out today closing out DE with a decent profit as it lost 10 week support and has earnings Wednesday and COG was sold for a 1.60 profit today. Of course it did not violate its 78.75 double bottom buy point that I bought it against, and I will probably end up regretting it.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets folded to start the week Monday on continuing Euro concerns, and the failure of the "Super Committee". Volume subsided which is normal during a holiday week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed lower by about 1.9%. The S&P 500 gave up its 10 week MA Monday. As always a look at leading stocks can provide valuable clues to market health. Today many slumped including TIBX UA. Others managed to hold up decently amid the markets nasty behavior today. We bought some $COG at 79.20 today as the leader revisited in 78.75 double bottom it broke out from 10/28. VRSK retreated back near its 35.31 5 week tight pattern and then staged a positive reversal. Others doing the same include HUM trending back to its 80.74 double bottom buy point on 10/31 in quiet trade. EL is trending back to its own 106.52 double bottom buy point it gapped out from on 11/3. The XRT bounced of the big round number of 50 exactly today and managed to close above its 10 week by the end of the day. Many retailers closed well off their lows of the day, showing strength, and included COH DLTR BBBY. M had a very positive inside day and closed up today. The XLE found exact 10 week support Monday. XOM SM COP APA DVN RRC APC all also found good 10 week support today. However, this environment is not painting a bullish picture. Positions should be kept small and nimble. Former leaders like WYNN PCLN AMZN were all down between 4-8%. FIO, a recent IPO was down 8.5%. However keep a close eye on stocks demonstrating relative strength on weak tapes. They include XRAY ORLY SWI (had a bullish inside day Monday) and VRSK M. DG has a 40.81 square box buy point and HRL has a 30.11 3 weeks tight pattern buy point. Careful this one reports earnings Tuesday. And a final note was merger activity returning with GILD taking out VRUS. Earnings tomorrow come from DSW HRL NUAN.

Stocks that can be bought as they approach 10 week support are DPZ 29.80, MCD 90.30, WMT 55.10, INTC 23.25, KLAC 43, TRN 26, ADSK 31.05, INFA 44.25, JKHY 31, RHT 45.90, SAP 55.95, IP 26.50, MA 341, PPG 80, NOV 64, ECL 52.55, CBS 23.60, NUE 35.85. Stocks that found 10 week support today were HXL PAG SBUX TJX SO DEO UPS IBM JNPR SGI NUAN (earnings Tuesday), HRL (earnings Tuesday), CLF CE DE APC APA COP DVN XOM RRC SM NUS DHR X. NEM can be bought with a 65.90 buy stop as it retakes 10 week resistance. NVDA retook its 10 week MA today.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are TIF 70, FE 42.10, ABV 31.15, CNI 74.05, UNP 96.50, AAPL 362, TIBX 26, CPO 50.15, GIS 37.75, CELG 59. Stocks that found 40 week support today were COH BEAV WFM QCOM NVLS BUD VMW ATHN INTU CPO RAX CBI URI MON CXO NBL.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are VFC 131, COST 83, ULTA 69, ORCL 31, HANS 89.80, ALXN 65.70, JAZZ 40.15, ADS 97. CBOE MON met 10 week resistance today. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week MA and their sell stop spots are IBM 179.50, NUS 45.10. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were SWN VFC UA TIF EMC HANS TROW BBT CMI HAL.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are ARMH 28, CHKP 54.10, AMGN 55.55, CPHD 32.75, DFS 24, ABX 49.10, EOG 100, PXD 33.75. WSM ACN MAKO PLL APC all met 40 week resistance today, however ACN MAKO both ended the day in the green today. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stop spots are HSY 55.75, WPI 63.50. CTXS SAP KO AMGN EFX all lost 40 week support today.

Good luck.

The author owns DE COG. We bought COG as it approached its 78.75 double bottom buy point it gapped out of 10/28. We exited our retail pair we had on, losing a little more than $1 on WMT, but gaining $7.25 on our LULU short.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets ended the week Friday little unchanged. But a look at the weekly moves paints a much different picture. The Nasdaq led the way down losing 4% and not only meeting 40 week resistance, but losing its 10 week MA as well. The S&P 500 fell almost 4% as well but did manage to find support just above its 50 day MA. For the week volume was slightly below average. The action on the benchmarks was concerning, because we did get some decent economic numbers this week. Industrial output grew, jobless claims fell, GDP forecasts being revised upwards by a number of firms. Beware poor price action in reaction to good news. Notable stocks which have lost 40 week support this week include AMZN ORCL BIDU AXP CVX PCLN. Notables losing 10 week support this week included CMG DECK ALXN JPM. The greenback has risen now for 3 weeks in a row, putting a damper on commodities. Oil had a wild ride this week breaking through par Wednesday only to see that move reversed by weeks end. Gold slumped 4% on the week, but the GLD did find tenuous 50 day support Friday. It looks as if it is carving a cup with handle pattern with a 175.56 trigger point. A look at some leading stocks, a true barometer of market health, have been acting poorly since breaking out. They include TIBX (broke out from a 29.66 cup with handle on 11/14), NEM (broke out from a 71.35 cup base 11/7), CLR (broke out from a 71.87 double bottom 11/16). They all seem to be failing here. One that looks decent as it retreats to its original cup base buy point of 19.33, which it broke out from 10/20. See how it reacts in that area. Even defensive stocks such as food groups all looking spoiled, pun intended. KO is sporting a negative head and shoulders pattern here. HSY had a miserable earnings report 10/27, and HNZ lost 5% on the week following an earnings report Friday. Look for HANS to maybe follow the group if its breaches 10 week support at 89. Stocks which gap ups are still holding intact are bullish and include ORLY EL SWI QCOR. Earnings Monday come from ADI HPQ.

Stocks near specific buy points, to be viewed cautiously with the market in correction, are cup with handles BEAV 40.14, AAP 71.10, CNI 80.54. Double bottom with handles include BUD 59.57, JKHY 33.83, TIF 81.09. Bullish 3 week tight patterns include SIMO 20.59, HRL 30.11.

Stocks which can be shorted as they lose lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are COH 59.75, UA 76.20, VFC 129.50, BBBY 59.60, ADI 34.50, HANS 89, V 90.25, TROW 51.50, CE 39.55, CMI 93.50, COP 67.50. Stocks that lost their 10 week MAs Friday were CELG ADS TPX NEM BHI CVX TCK RL TD ULTA ARBA GIS. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are DECK 103.60, COST 83, DLTR 78, ULTA 69, NVDA 14.50, TAP 40.75, KO 68, BIDU 132, WY 16.80, ALXN 65.55. Stocks that met 10 week resistance Friday were ADP ORCL BIDU NTRS FCX RIO DOW VLO.

Stocks which can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ATHN 49.70, CTXS 69.70, AMGN 55.20. Stocks that lost 200 support Friday were LULU AMZN WSM ARMH ACN MDRX ARBA CERN MAKO ABX. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are PCLN 503, PPG 85, ABX 49.20, PAY 44, DFS 24, AXP 48, HON 54, MAKO 30, CPHD 32.50, JEC 42.20, AKAM 30, CERN 60, ARMH 28, AMZN 201, LULU 50.20. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were ASML CHKP EOG EXXI OXY CBS.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs are PMTC 21, PH 82.20, KEG 15.25, ARW 37.50. IP FMC both reclaimed their 200 day MAs Friday.

Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are PCP 155, CMG 294, WFM 63.25, QCOM 54.10, JBHT 43.05, AAPL 363, INTU 50.60, CPO 50, RAX 39.60, CBI 36.20, URI 24.50, CXO 93, APC 76, PXD 88, TPX 59.75. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were PAG JBHT SAP HSY AMGN EFX PLL APC.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are HXL 23.05, M 28.85, SBUX 41, TJX 58, INTC 23.15, SO 42.75, DEO 80.75, VRSK 35.10, JNPR 21.50, NUAN 23, XRAY here, PNC 51, BBT 22.40, CLF 65, SCCO 29, DE 72, DVN 62, XOM 76, SM 75, DHR 46, X 24.50. Stocks that received 10 week support Friday were NKE UA VFC BBBY RPST ABV EMC MDRX CBOE V MON CRZO HAL SWN.

Good luck.

The author owns DE WMT. Short LULU.


'

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Friday Game Plan

Markets fell hard in above average volume for the 2nd consecutive day Thursday as European fears popped up again. Today Spain was the culprit. The Nasdaq lost 2%, but managed to close right at 10 week support, but its 2600 level was pierced. The S&P 500 lost 1.7% but also closed just above 10 week support. Markets are failing to react positively to decent economic news, today it was jobless claims and housing starts. Good news, bad price action can never be construed as benign. The SDS is nearing 200 day resistance 21.90. Its 200 day MA has proved very reliable in forecasting market rallies and corrections. Leading stocks which escaped serious damage today were not so fortunate today. Leaders such as PCLN KLAC SBH lost 5% today. ULTA 3.5%. DECK lost its 10 week MA today, but did so on quiet trade. Is it going to head lower and test its 200 day MA like LULU CERN MAKO? Time will tell. Retail stocks which found exact 10 week support today were NKE RL. The retail ETF XRT is headed for a 200 day test at 50.90. Software stocks wer hit today with the likes of CTXS CERN FTNT NUAN ORCL all falling in the neighborhood of 4%. Ags were hit as AGU fell 7%, POT 5%. The dollar continued its steady incline today hitting energy and metals as well. Gold miners were hit pretty hard as GLD closed right at 10 week support. NEM assumes its leadership role in that group and fell the least and found 10 week support. Banks and credit cards had a rough time of it today. The XLF pierced its 10 week MA today with GS MS JPM all falling more than 3%. Credit cards companies DFS fell 4%, AXP 3%. Again an example of follow the leaders where MA was basically UNCH and V was down 2% finding support at its 10 week MA. Some positives I have seen are the fact the the semiconductors and transports have been slowly and steadily making their way up the sector ranks. Perhaps we take a shot on energy leader COG if it gets back to its 78.75 double bottom buy point. Not much by the way of earnings Friday. CRM was down 6% after hours and INTU was little changed on earnings.

Stocks near specific buy points, (you have to be prepared even in this environment), are cup with handles MELI 90.09, AAP 71.10, RAX 45.56. Double bottom with handles are JKHY 33.83, IP 29.51.

Stocks near 200 day support are BEAV 36.05, COST 79, FL 21.25, WFM 63.25, ARMH 28, QCOM 54.15, FE 42.05, BUD 56.50, CNI 74, AAPL 363, INTU 50.60, CPO 50, GIS 37.75, CBI 36.20, EFX 34.90, CXO 93, APC 76, PXD 88.20. Stocks that received 200 day support today were ACN MDRX ARBA SAP MAKO CERN WPI EFX ABX MON PLL APC PAG. Stocks near 10 week support are COH 60, HXL 23.05, MCD 90, SBUX 40.95, TIF 72.30, SO 42.75, IBM 180, JNPR 21.50, XRAY 33.70, TROW 51.75, PNC 51, BBT 22.30, CLF 65, EMN 37.40, DE 72.15, BHI 54.25, CRZO 25.65, DVN 62.10, XOM 76, HAL 36, NOV 64, RRC 66.50, NUS 45.10, TPX 62. Stocks that received 10 week support today were UA SO EMC ORCL NEM SCCO CVX SWN.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week support and their sell stop spots are VFC 129.50, LULU 49.70, BBBY 59.50, DG 38.15, LTD 41.05, ADI 34.50, HANS 89, ADS 95.75, CE 39.55, CMI 93.50. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were COST ULTA NVDA SMTC FE EXPD CRM GIS BIDU ALXN AXP NTRS FCX RIO DOW TCK VLO. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are AMZN 199.40, AMGN 55.25, CPHD 32.10, CEN 59.50, MAKO 29.10, LULU 49.70. Stocks that lost their 40 week support today ASML CHKP INFA ORCL PMTC KO BIDU AXP PAY FMC PPG JOYG PH EOG EXXI KEG OXY SWN CBS.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are CMG 322, COST 83, DLTR 77.60, ADP 50.30, WY 16.90. FMC can be shorted at 80, its 200 day MA. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are AKAM 30.30, JEC 42.80. JBHT retook its 200 day MA today.

Good luck.

The author owns DE WMT. Short LULU. We sold FCX as its 10 week MA gave way today for a nice profit, but in hindsight could have sold at much more lucrative prices.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Thursday Game Plan

Markets were harpooned toward the end of the trading session on Wednesday after Fitch made some comments regarding US banks. Volume grew and as we know markets that end weak on heavy volume are hallmarks of bearish action. The two heaviest volume days occurred this month on 11/1 (Nasdaq down 3%), 11/9 (Nasdaq down 4%). However the Nasdaq did quickly find support at its 2600 level. It looks headed for their again, where its upward sloping 50 day MA resides. Amid all the volatility the VXX reclaimed its 50 day MA in higher volume. That ETF has had a serious trend change ever since recapturing its 200 day early in August. Talking about the banks the XLF found support right at its 50 day MA today on weak volume, which is a plus. MS JPM were both down 4 and 8% respectively both losing 10 week support in the process. Retail took a hit today with ANF plunging 20%. The XRT however still looks decent as it builds its handle and is approaching 200 day support tamely. Stick with the leaders in that group. PIR hit an all time high yesterday. AMZN looks headed for a 200 day test at......$200 soon. CJES had a nice day today gaining more than 5% on a horrible tape. Relative strength noted. Stocks that look to be attractive at specific levels are INTC at 24.50, SCSS 20. Earnings tomorrow come from DLTR INTU.

Stocks to look for support at their 200 day MAs are BUD 56.60, JWN 46.20, WSM 37, BIDU 135, ARBA 31, ORCL 31.65, SAP 58.50, ARMH 28, ASML 38.80, APC 76, FMC 80, EOG 100, EXXI 30.40, OXY 96.50, PXP 33.95, PLL 52.15, PH 82.25, PPG PAG here. Stocks that found 200 day support in the wreckage today were PAY CBS DTV VZ XLNX PPG RDSA SWN TYC PAG. Stocks to look for 10 week support to hold are DECK 103, NKE 91, FL 21.50, VFC 130, NEM 65.75, RIO 52, FCX 37.50, ED 57.50, SO 42.65, BBBY 59.80, TPX 62, MON 70.50, AXP 48, KKR 12, V 90.60, ACN 56, MCO 32.40, CELG 64, BBT 22.30, NTRS 37.55, CVX 100, TCK 35.80, EXPD 43.55, PRU 50, X 24.75. NVDA VLO found 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 200 day support and their sell stop spots are KO 66.75, HSY 55.80, CERN 59.65, AET 39.50, MAKO 29.50, WPI 63.25, LULU 49.75. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were DSW DFS CRM ADP MCO LLTC UPS HON. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ALTR 35.75, DOW 26.20, ITW 45.10. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today BHP CMG DSW DLTR PX WFC PCP JPM BK.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are DLTR 77.50, AGU 77.25, DFS 24.30. WFM AGU BAX BTU WY all met 50 day resistance today. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were XRAY AVGO XOM AVT DHR CAT CMI JBHT.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AKAM 30.40, TXN 31.90, EMR 52.50, CAT 98.30, JBHT 43.30. JOYG retook its 200 day MA today.

Gap ups still holding up even after todays sell off include SBUX EL NUAN.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU. FCX we have about a 10% gain in and its shrinking. If its closes below 10 week support we will book our gain. DE was up and we also have a comfortable gain there. The WMT/LULU pair worked well in our favor today

Wednesday Game Plan

Markets staged a decent reversal Tuesday, most evident in tech. The Nasdaq however was met again with stiff resistance at the 40 week MA at 2687. The "Tuesday Turnaround" effect was in at least for the Nasdaq. Helped by INTC which hit a 3 year high on brisk volume. The SMH has been outperforming and it setting up a trigger buy point of 32.84. Action from leading stocks has been mixed. AMZN, which comprises more than 2% of the Nasdaq index, did not participate in the Nasdaq's 1.1% advance. It met 10 week resistance Monday. CVX had a negative outside reversal day. But a look at VRSK and UA on their weekly charts are trading very tightly after breakouts which is bullish. If they continue this action they will complete the 3 week tight patterns, that both M and DEO are now enjoying. DPZ broke out of a 33.10 4 week tight pattern buy point on weak volume. Not great action. It is reminiscent of last Mondays NEM break out from a 71.35 cup base buy point which has not worked well, at least for now. Commodities have been kept on a leash with the UUP advancing back above its 10 week MA. Crude has been battling with par, and the JJC flirting with 10 week resistance here as well. Earnings Wednesday include LTD TGT SBH TYC among the stocks we follow.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup with handles COH 66.64, RAX 45.56, ABV 34.89, INTU 55.53, BEAV 40.14, ORCL 33.91, PPG 90.10, OXY 101.75, PXP 37.01, UNP 103.90, Double bottom with handles are PM 72.59, TIF 81.09, BIDU 147.78, AXP 52.45, ARMH 31.65, PLL 54.18. Double bottoms are AET 41.95, QCOM 59.58, CXO 99.57. Cup with high handles are HXL 26.58, CHKP 61.70. FE 46.10 in a 4 week tight base, M 32.77 and DEO 86.10 in 3 week tight bases. V 95.97 in a square box pattern.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are AKAM 30.50, XOM 80.25, NOV 72.25, VLO 25.25, EMR 52.60, UTX 81.25, AVT 31.55, DHR 49.85, ATU 24.40, CAT 98.30, JOYG 88.25, NUE 40.75, JBHT 43.25. CRM MCO XRAY DTV retook their 40 week MAs Tuesday. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are WFM 69.25, AA 10.75.

Stocks that can be bought near 40 week support are BUD 56.50, WSM 38, KO 67, SAP 58.50, XRAY 36, CBS 25, FMC 80, EOG 100, RDSA 69.50, PH 82.25, PAG 20. HSY DFS PAY LLTC XLNX EXXI HON all found 40 week support Tuesday. Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are ALXN 65, CELG 63.95, BBT 22.20, BK 209, CRZO 25.75, TCK 36. Stocks that found 10 week support Tuesday were BHP CMG DSW JWN PCP NVDA JPM MS WFC.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are ADI 37.05, TXN 31.75, CVI 23.05, CMI 100.50. Stocks that met 40 week resistance Tuesday were JNY EBAY ADI AVGO COP XOM VLO AVT CMI. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are AAPL 395, JAZZ 40.75, GS 101, BTU 40.75, WYNN 134.50, BWA 68. TAP BAX GS BWA WY all met 10 week resistance Tuesday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week MAs and their sell stops are CMG 319, DLTR 77, WFC 24.65, ITW 45.10. AGY BMY lost 10 week support Tuesday.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU. The WMT/LULU pair is being kept on a small leash here.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Monday Recap

Markets fell Monday, but managed to close off the days lows. Volume was weak, even below Fridays level which was Veterans Day. The Nasdaq could not muscle its way past 200 day resistance today and fell .8%, while the S&P 500 retreated 1%. Banks were hit pretty hard today on EU concerns as investors sought more yield on debt of both Italy and now Spain. Banks here at home took some hits but some were greeted by 10 week support including JPM MS. The XLF is now hovering just above its 10 week MA near 12.60. Energy was hit pretty good today as well, as crude approached the big round number of par. Some shale plays were the beneficiaries of BHP investing in US shale gas. CLR (71.87 double bottom buy point),PXP (now sporting a nice cup with handle buy point of 37.01), and CJES (recent fracking IPO), all of which were higher today on a weak tape. If you must play the energy sector as always, play the leaders. They would include EOG COG CVX NBL. Take notice of relative strength on weak tapes. Others to keep an eye on that bucked the trend today were TIF QCOM SIMO EL AMZN JNY GNC. Leading stocks displayed little damage today and we even had a breakout today with TIBX. AET advanced past a double bottom buy point today but closed below it. Remember leading stocks are a true barometer of market health. Tomorrow earnings are reported by WMT A DELL TJX DKS.

Stocks near specific buy points are double bottoms AET 41.95 (took out buy point intraday, but closed beneath), QCOM 59.58, CLR 71.87, EOG 107.98. Cup with handles are PXP 37.01, UNP 103.90, COH 66.64, WSM 40.17. Double bottom with handles are PLL 54.15, ARMH 31.65, TIF 81.09, PM 72.59. DPZ 33.10 in a 4 week tight pattern. Keep an eye on RAX BEAV, both of which are building handles in cup bases. Both previous mentioned need one more day to complete valid handles, which must be 5 days in duration.

Stocks near 200 day support are BUD 56.50, ORCL 31.60, SAP 58.50, ACN 55.50, WPI 63.40, CBS 24.95, ASML 38.95, CBOE 25.75, PPG 84.60, APC 76, FMC 80, CXO 93.10, OXY 96, SWN 40.25, HON 54, PH 82.25, PAG 20. Stocks that found 200 day support today were BIDU WLP XLNX EXXI.

Stocks near 50 day support are RIO 52.05, BBBY 59.60, TGT 52, DE 72.20, AXP 48, CHKP 56.15, CELG 63.70, BBT 22.20, BK 20, NTRS 37.55, PNC 50.90, DOW 26.45, CRZO 25.75, TCK 36, X 24.75. Stocks that found 50 day support today were BHP FE PCP DFS BMY JPM MS.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CAT 98.25, JNY 12, AVT 31.50. PAY retook its 200 day MA today rising 8%. ALXN retook its 50 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ADI 37.05 TXN 31.75, CE 45.50, CVI 23.05, COP 72.20, XOM 79.75, NOV 72, VLO 25.10, CMI 100.50. EBAY AKAM DELL CRM DTV ADI TXN CVI COP XOM DHR JBHT all met 200 day resistance today. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are TAP 41, AMZN 224, LULU 54, JAZZ 40.40, AVGO 34, GS 102, BWA 68. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were BTU WY AA WFM BAX CMCSA AVGO.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stops are KO 66.75, ADP 51, LLTC 31.70. HSY MCO XRAY AVGO UPS lost 200 day support today. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 50 day support and their sell stop spots are CMG 319, AGU 76.50, WFC 24.70, ITW 54.10. LULU WNR lost their 50 day MAs today.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets finished the week with a bang Friday with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both higher in the 2% range. The move put both indexes in the black for the year. Volume was light due to the holiday. A look at the indexes shows both 10 week MAs started to now slope upward, a positive sign. Although both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 encountered some resistance near their 40 week MAs Friday, recent action has been encouraging. Since the huge moves we have seen off of the 10/04 capitulation days, the markets have been stubborn and reluctant to give back any of the gains. The Nasdaq itself has now found repeated support off its 2600 level and even seems to be forming a bullish cup with handle pattern.

Taking a look at some individual sectors, the semis via SMH retook their 200 day MA Friday. The ETF rose more than 3% Friday and now sports a cup with handle buy point of 32.84. Favorites in the group remain KLAC and INTC up 4.5% and 3% respectively after breaking out of bases recently. The XLE is finding resistance here at its 200 day MA. Will the third time be the charm here. Put in a buy stop above 73. Favorites in this group remain COG which rose 5% this week after a recent double bottom breakout. Follow the leaders. Both EOG CXO look nice technically after regaining 200 day support. CJES rose 11% this week, recapturing its 10 week MA in the process on healthy earnings this week. The XRT continues to look beautiful and has carved out a cup with handle buy point of 55.02. Many leaders in the group fell this week including DECK (down 7%) DSW BBBY but all managed to find solid 10 week support during the week. The transports ETF IYT is readying a 200 day test of it own for the second time in two weeks. Put in a buy stop above 91 there. KSU made another all time high Friday, and others like NSC UNP are both forming cup with handle patterns.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup with handles bases COH 66.64, ABV 34.89, TIBX 29.66, ACN 62.00, ASML 43.98, PPG 90.10, SWN 44.46, UNP 103.90, PAG 22.55. Double bottom with handles are PM 72.59, TPX 72.10, TIF 81.09, WSM 40.17, BIDU 147.78, AXP 52.45, SAP 63.53, CBS 26.87, ARMH 31.65, CVX 110.11, PLL 54.18. Double bottoms are BUD 59.86, AET 41.95, CXO 99.57. Cup bases are FL 24.93, CLR 71.87. 4 week tight patterns are FE 46.00, DPZ 33.10. M has a 3 week tight pattern buy point of 32.77, and V has a square box base buy point of 95.97. Both RAX BEAV are in the process of forming handles and can be added to your watchlist.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are JNY 12, SCCO 34.50, AKAM 30.60, KKR 15.15, EMC 25.60, TXN 32.05, BBT 25.20, CE 45.75, XOM 80.25, NOV 72.60, EMR 52.75, UTX 81.30, AVT 31.55, ATU 24.50, CAT 98.50, NUE 40.75, JBHT 43.25. XRAY WLP XLNX PX EOG EXXI UPS HON TYC DHR all retook 40 week resistance Friday. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are WFM 69.20, GS 103. KO AGU DFS BMY AVGO all retook their 10 week MAs Friday.

Stocks that can be bought near 200 day support are DFS 24, ORCL 31.70, MCO 34.20, XRAY 36, MAKO 29.50, WPI 63.25, WLP 69.90, QCOM 54.15, GRA 40.40, APC 76, EOG 100, EXXI 30.50, OXY 96, RDSA 69.50, HON 54, DHR 49.40, PH 82.25, PAG 19.95. WSM BIDU LVS all found 200 day support Friday. Stocks that can be bought at 50 day support are SO 42.55, CHKP 56.10, CBOE 26, JPM 32.55, MS 15.75, WFC 25.05, CRZO 25.75, TCK 36, X 25. TGT CLEG NVDA all found 50 day support Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AMZN 223, CERN 66.50, ALXN 64.60, JAZZ 0.75, WPI 67.75. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were AA TAP WFM ALXN BAX CMCSA GS BTU BWA WY. DLTR can be shorted with a sell stop below 50 week support at 76.50. CVI can be shorted at 23.25 its 200 day MA, and HSY can be shorted with a sell stop below 200 day support at 55.75.

Gap up stocks still looking fine are ORLY SBUX SWI HUM QCOR QCOM EL.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Thursday Thoughts

Markets rebounded in very weak fashion Thursday, a day after a solid bruising. Volume on the comeback was less than impressive suggesting the institutions were on the sidelines. The Nasdaq was basically UNCH, but did find support at the 2600 level. Indexes like stocks tend to find support or resistance at big, round numbers. The S&P 500 rose just less than 1%. The headline of the day had to be the AAPL breach of its 10 week MA. A move down toward the 200 day MA in the near term looks like a strong possibility now. We have been mentioning the distribution the stock has been suffering as of late, viewable best on a weekly chart. When the 800 lb gorilla in the room suffers serious technical damage, its time to take notice. In fact the high beta names sat out today. WYNN has also been suffering as of late. It finished lower by more than 3.5% today on mild tape. Perhaps CMG will be the next to sever 50 week support. Keep an eye on the 320 level. Concerning the volatility the VXX found 50 day support today, most likely providing a buying opportunity after storming through it to the upside yesterday on healthy volume. Earnings reports are quiet Friday.

Stocks near exact buy points and which should only be purchased with big volume to confirm the breakout are double bottom with handles PM 72.59, AET 41.17, CBS 26.87, CVX 110.11, NBL 94.98, PAG 22.55, CBI 39.37. Cup with handles are TIBX 29.66, FTNT 25.43, SWN 44.46, NSC 75.96, UNP 103.90. 3 week tight patterns are DPZ 33.10, ETF XLU 35.57. BUD 59.86 in a double bottom base.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are EOG 101, WLP 70.20, HON 54.25, EMR 53. BUD PXD URI all retook their 200 day MAs today. Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are BUD 56.50, MON 69.75, ARBA 31, ACN 55.40, QCOM 54.10, PPG 84.75, APC 76, FMC 80, PXP 33.95, VLO 25.05. Stocks that found 200 day support today were KO HSY R CTXS ORCL SAP PPG FMC OXY VLO PAG.

Stocks that can be bought near 50 day support are DECK 102, RIO 52.30, FCX 38, DG 38.05, AXP 48, CHKP 56.05, AMT 55, BBT 22.10, BK 20, JOYG 78. Stocks that found 50 day support today were BHP BBBY DE BIDU CRM CELG DTV NVDA MS JPM WFC HAL TCK WNR X.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 200 day support and their sell stop spots are KO 66.75, JAZZ 33.70, AVGO 32.75. CVI WFC both lost their 200 day MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are TXN 31.95, XOM 80, UPS 70.50. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were JNY EBAY XRAY LLTC XLNX GRA EXXI HON TYC PH.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CMG 319, DLTR 76.50. AAPL BTU both lost their 50 day MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are TAP 41, DSW 48.75, WFM 68.25, DAR 14, DFS 24.25, ALXN 64.40, GS 103, BWA 68. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were DFS ALXN BMY GS BWA WY.

Gap ups still intact and to be construed bullishly as long as they hold are ORLY EL SWI SBUX.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU. Put on the retail pair right about here. WMT right at its 58.09 double bottom with handle buy point, and LULU losing 50 day support.

Wednesday Thoughts

Markets plunged Wednesday on heightened concerns over the country of Italy. The Nasdaq lost 3.9% and the S&P 500 3.7%. Volume expanded delivering a big wallop to the markets strong October. The type of volatility we are witnessing is prevalent in bear markets. Perhaps we are in just a transient mini bull market within a more secular bear. There really was nowhere to hide Wednesday as even your traditional defensive names like ROST lost 4%, KO 2.5%. With the dollar surging on a Euro meltdown, global growth equities came under fire. JOYG lost 6%, CAT almost 5%. Commodities were pounded on the backs of the surging greenback. X lost 8%, FCX 7.5%. Both of those former names found 50 day support today. Banks were pummeled today with titans GS JPM, losing 9 and 7% respectively, both giving way under their 50 day MAs. "When the facts change, I can my mind, what do you do sir". Today certainly changed the mood of markets and as a result we should become smaller in size of our trading. However amid all the doom and gloom we need to keep an eye on new opportunities. SWI a recent gap up, rose today smartly. Pay attention to relative strength. FTNT needs one more day to build a handle on its cup base. Potential buy point of 25.43. The ETF SDS looks like it can rally into 200 day resistance at 22. Perhaps their a rally can continue. Perhaps. After hours the happiest person around had to be David Einhorn as GMCR melted more than 30% on earnings. CSCO rose 2%. Stocks reporting Thursday include DAR KSS JWN DIS.

Stocks near 200 day support are DSW 46, MON 69.75, BIDU 135, ARBA 31, INTU 50.50, ACN 55.25, JAZZ 34, QCOM 54.15,NVLS 33.50, CBOE 25.75, APC 76, CVI 23, CVX 101.75, CLR 61.80, CXO 93, PXP 33.90, VLO 25.05, UNP 96.20, PAG 19.90. Stocks that found 200 day support today on a horrible tape were KO R CTXS PPG FMC NBL OXY WNR CBI. Put in a buy stop on EOG above 101 as it reclaims its 200 day MA.

Stocks near 50 day support are JNY 10.80, DECK 101.50, NKE 90, FCX 38, ED 57.15, FE 44.50, SO 42.50, ABV 32.85, BBBY 59.40, DG 38, JWN 48.10 (earnings tomorrow), TJX 57, TIF 72, AXP 48, V 90, CHKP 56, BBT 22.10, PNC 50.25, EMN 37.20, GRA 38, HES 58, RRC 66, SU 29.35, TCK 36.20. DE MS HAL X all found 50 day support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are KO 66.25, HSY 55.75, ATHN 49.75, WPI 63, AVGO 33. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were BUD EBAY DFS MCO XRAY LLTC COP EXXI RDSA TYC KMT URI. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are HFC 31.30, UPS 70.50 (weekly UPS chart shows large distribution).

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 50 day support and their sell stop spots are RL 144.50, LULU 54, MMM 72.50, ITW 45, AAPL 393.50. Stocks that lost 50 day support today were AA BHP DSW AGU DELL BMY CMCSA GS JPM WY. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are WFM 68.25, ALXN 64.45.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE. We sold ORCL today for a small profit as it lost its 200 day MA which was the catalyst for getting in.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets finished higher Tuesday, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising 1.2%. Volume importantly rose across the board. The S&P 500, playing catch up with the Nasdaq, reclaimed its 200 day MA, one day after the Nasdaq did just that. The Nasdaq is now sitting 1% off a 2753 double bottom with handle buy point. The indexes are beginning to develop some very bullish patterns. They have repeatedly found strong buying interest into the close, finishing very near highs for the session. More breakouts are occuring. Today saw WMT breakout from a 58.06 double bottom with handle buy point and NTGR from a 36.80 cup with handle trigger. Always demand strong volume on the breakout as both WNR YUM broke out in weak volume today from their respective double bottom with handle bases. GNC retreated back to its 25.96 double bottom with handle buy point. ETFs hovering near 200 day MAs include IYT which can be bought with a buy stop above 200 day resistance at 91. USO can be purchased with a buy stop above its 200 day as well at 37.85. An additional add on buy can be done at 39.35 in a double bottom base. XLE retook its 200 day today. Earnings reactions were also viewed in a very positive light with PCLN rising 9%, RAX 7.5%. Tomorrow reports come from CJES RL M MAKO.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Double bottom with handle bases are LULU 59.56, TPX 72.10, XLNX 34.03, PM 72.59, TIF 81.09, WSM 40.17, BIDU 147.78, AXP 52.45, ORCL 33.91, SAP 63.53, AET 41.17, CBS 26.87, CVX 110.11, CXO 100.37, NBL 94.98, RDSA 74.15, VLO 26.96, JOYG 93.94, PLL 54.18, CBI 39.37. Cup with handles are NSC 75.96, PPG 90.10, UNP 103.90, LLTC 33.48, ASML 43.98, COH 66.64, ABV 34.89. RAX 46.27 in a flat base, FE 46.61 in a flat base, DPZ 33.10 in a 3 week tight pattern and CHKP 61.70 in a cup with high handle pattern.

Stocks that can be bought as they recover their 200 day MAs and their corresponding buy stops are : AKAM 31.10, KKR 15.10, SCCO 34.75, CRM 135.75, EMC 25.60, WLP 70, TXN 32.25, BBT 25.20, WFC 28.15, CE 45.75, XOM 80.30, EMR 53, AVT 31.70, ATU 24.70, CAT 98.25, PLL 52.75, JBHT 43.20. BUD ADI COP EXXI NOV HON DHR URI all reclaimed their 200 day MAs Tuesday.

Stocks to buy as they recover their 50 day MAs and their corresponding buy stops are: CERN 67, WPI 68. Both DAR KO retook their 50 day MAs today.

Stocks that can be bought near 200 day support include: FL 21.10, HSY 56, XRAY 36, EOG 100, HFC 31, PXP 34, HON 54.05. WSM PAY R GRA EOG JOYG all found support at their 20 day MAs today.

Stocks that can be bought near 50 day support are: AGU 78, CVI 25.05. Stocks that received 50 day support today were DSW AA WFM DFS BMY WY.

Pharma still looks a bit soft and JAZZ can be shorted with a sell stop of 33.65 as it loses 40 week support, and ALXN can be shorted with a sell stop of 63.75, as it loses 10 week support. MAKO can be shorted at 10 week resistance at 37.25. IBN met 50 day resistance today.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE ORCL. JNY was sold for a very small loss as it breached is 200 day intraday.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets finished in the black Monday and at highs of the day after suffering losses of at least 1%. The S&P 500 rose .6%, the Nazz .3%. Volume did not accompany the bullish move higher. Still the price action has to be respected. The Nazz did manage to recapture its 200 day MA Monday. No leading stocks really broke out today, with the exception of NEM, but volume was only 15% above average. Quite a few energy names are setting up valid buy points which can be seen in the next paragraph. The XLE is stalking its 200 day MA which has acted as resistance recently. Put in a buy stop above 72.75 on that ETF. Semis had a decent day today with INTC advancing 2.25% today after retreating to its 23.49 double bottom buy point late last week. SMH found solid support at its 40 week MA. The ETF has now carved out a cup with handle buy point of 32.84. Retail lagged with leaders DECK DSW both dropping 4% and DECK 2.5%. M bucked the trend advancing 3%. APPL still remains a concern finishing lower today on a decent tape. The volume trends their look disturbing with up days on weak volume and vica versa on down days. It does manage to hold its 10 week line but if that is breached it could revisit its 200 day MA very easily. WYNN also looks troubling on the chart. ATHN was lower by another 5%, after having a bearish outside reversal day 10/21 on earnings. CHK has had its own earnings outside day last week and both finished in the red on a benign tape. Tech can get a boost at the open tomorrow as both PCLN RAX were up after hours post earnings. Tomorrow reports come from IFF FOSL HFC CRZO.

Stocks near specific buy points are double bottom with handles ORCL 33.91, PM 72.59, TIF 81.09, WMT 58.06, YUM 54.99, BIDU 147.78, AXP 52.45, SAP 63.53, AET 41.17, CBS 26.87, CE 46.45, PPG 90.10, APC 84.08, CVX 110.11, CXO 100.37, NBL 94.98, RDSA 74.15, VLO 26.96, WNR 17.87, JOYG 93.94, BWA 77.80, CBI 39.37. Cup with handles are COH 66.64, ABV 34.89, DSW 55.02, ASML 43.98, KLAC 48.10, UNP 103.90, IFF 63.98 (earnings tomorrow). QCOM has a 59.58 double bottom buy point and CHKP has a 61.70 cup with high handle buy point. 3 week tight patterns are DPZ 33.10, PETM 48.67.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AKAM 31.25, CRM 135.25, EMC 25.60, TXN 32.25, BBT 25.25, COP 72.40, EXXI 30.85, XOM 80.25, UPS 70.95, HON 54.50, EMR 53, AVT 31.80, ATU 24.60, CAT 98.25, PLL 52.60, URI 25.15. PAY retook its 40 week MA today. Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are FL 21, WSM 36.95, WPI 63, LLTC 31.95, NBL 88.20. Stocks that found 200 day support today were ORCL JNY NTGR R ADP CBS XLNX GRA EOG OXY RDSA PH BWA CMI CBI IFF. JAZZ can be shorted with a sell stop @33.50. DTV lost its 200 day MA today. CRM ADI EXXI NOV HON PLL all met 200 day resistance today.

Stocks that can be bought at 50 day support are FE 44.50, V 89.95, JPM 33, GS 102.50, MS 15.90, CVI 25.10. CJES can be bought with a sell stop above 19.65 as it retakes its 10 week MA. Stocks that found 10 week support today were LULU FOSL TGT AGU AAPL DELL ALXN CELG BMY AVGO NVDA WFC PX BHI CVI HAL EXPD MMM WY. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are LULU 53.75, WFM 67.80, ALXN 63.75. ROVI MAKO both lost 10 week support today. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are AMZN 224, HSY 58.70, ROVI 46.40, MAKO 37.25. Both ROVI MAKO lost 10 week support today.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE ORCL JNY.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets ended the week Friday with losses, but did manage to close in the upper half of their weekly ranges. The S&P 500 lost 2.5% for the week for its first weekly lost in the last 5. The Nazz lost 1.9% hitting 200 day resistance which it reclaimed Thursday. Some positives are developing including the relative outperformance of leading stocks. SBUX broke out Friday from 3 weeks tight pattern buy point of 43.53. Many are continuing higher. TPX revisited is 64.70 double bottom buy point and then rallied 6%. Some are consolidating and building handles on their respective bases as you will view in the next paragraph. Earnings continue to shine for most stocks with this weeks stars QCOM CLR both up 7%, HANS 6%. Good reactions indicate market health. Worrying charts include the recent strong pharmaceutical stocks. JAZZ WPI both have lost their 50 day MAs, although JAZZ did find 200 day support Friday. Keep an eye on ALXN to see if it can hold its 50 day MA. KO, like JAZZ, has a concerning bearish head and shoulders pattern. AAPL can be given the benefit of the doubt as it holds above its 50 day MA, but distribution is building and it rallies on soft volume. CHK had an outside day after earnings Friday. Earnings reports Monday include PCLN RAX.

Stocks near exact buy points are double bottom with handle buy points are PM 72.59, TIF 81.09, WMT 58.06, WSM 40.17, BIDU 147.78, AXP 52.45, ORCL 33.91, SAP 63.53, AET 41.17, CBS 26.87, KLAC 48.10, PPG 90.10, APC 84.08, CVX 110.11, CXO 100.37, WNR 17.87, JOYG 93.94, BWA 77.80. Cup with handles are COH 66.64, ABV 34.89, DSW 55.02, ACN 62.80, ASML 43.98, UNP 103.90, ETF XRT 55.02. Cup bases are NEM 71.35, RAX 46.27. 3 week tight patterns are DPZ 33.10, PETM 48.67. CHKP has a 61.70 in a cup with high handle pattern.

Stocks that can be bought near 200 day support are GG 49.10, MON 69.75, R 49.50, MCO 34.05, WPI 63, EOG 100.50, NBL 88.25, VLO 25.10, PH 82.50, CBI 36.05. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were JNY DTV GRA RDSA VLO PCLN JOYG PH CMI. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots AKAM 31.50, PAY 44.30, EMC 25.60, TXN 32.25, BBT 25.20, UPS 70.90, HON 54.45, EMR 53.20, ATU 24.70, CAT 98.25, JBHT 43.15, URI 25.25. ADI XLNX EOG OXY PXP all retook their 40 week MAs Friday. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are ANN 26.10, GMCR 77.50, WYNN 137. Stocks that met 40 week resistance Friday were XRAY TXN EXXI PLL URI. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are FOSL 96, KO 66.75, JAZZ 33.60.

Stocks that can be bought at 50 day support are BHP 76, FCX 38.25, SO 42.30, LULU 54, BBBY 59, AAPL 394, V 89.50, CELG 63, BMY 31.15, BBT 22.05, GS 102.50, JPM 33, MS 15.90, BHI 54.50, WY 17. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were AA ED FE DE CELG BMY WFC HAL. CJES can be bought as it retakes its 50 day MA with a buy stop of 19.75. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week MAs and their sell stop spots are DLTR 76, WFM 67.80, AGU 77.50, ALXN 63.70. Stocks that can be shorted as they meet 10 week resistance are AMZN 223, HSY 58.60, ATHN 60.25.

Stocks that can be bought at gut spots are X 26, recently broke thru its 50 day MA on huge volume. Recent gap ups that can be bought are MCD 92, SWI 28. Hold on to those as long as they hold their gap ups. Buy COG near its 78.75 double bottom buy point. My favorite energy stock right now.

Good luck. The author owns FCX DE ORCL JNY. We bought JNY at its 200 day MA at 12.13.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Thursday Thoughts

Markets rallied nicely Thursday and volume did accompany the move this time. The Nazz rallied 2.2% recapturing its 200 day MA in the process. The index seems to be forming a double bottom with handle base with a strike of 2753. The S&P 500 rose 1.8%. Markets also finished near their highs for the day, which is construed as bullish. Solid reactions to earnings, reinforcing a good tone were QCOM EL which both screamed higher. Chips performed well with the SMH regaining its 200 day MA today and rising almost 3%. Two stocks in the group traded back to their original buy points were, KLAC near its 44.69 double bottom with handle base and INTC to its 23.49 double bottom pattern. Energy was strong today as the UUP hit 50 day resistance and fell .5%. XLE is readying for a 200 day test near 72.50. CLR in the group flew ahead by 7% on earnings. RIG plunged 13% on an earnings miss. COG continues to be my favorite in that group, holding above it 78.75 double bottom. GNC tacked on another 2.5% after breaking out yesterday from its 25.96 double bottom with handle buy point. Speaking of earnings LTD found support right at its 10 week MA before resuming higher. Love the moving averages. Just a pair trade I am looking at now is going long MCD/short CMG (as long as the double top in CMG holds). We suggested an alcohol pair not to long ago going long DEO/short TAP. After hours movers included SBUX which was higher by 3% and trading right near its 43.53 3 weeks tight pattern. CHK was up 6% putting it right up against its 200 day MA. HANS was lower by 2%. Tomorrow brings reports from PXP.

Stocks near specific buy points which are becoming bullishly more numerous everyday are double bottom with handles TIF 81.09, WSM 40.17, YUM 54.99, AXP 52.45, ORCL 33.91, SAP 63.53, AET 41.17, PPG 90.06, CVX 110.11, WNR 17.87, JOYG 93.94, BWA 77.80. Cup with handles are ABV 34.89, DSW 55.02, VMW 100.55, MCO 37.25, ASML 43.98, MXIM 27.14, UNP 103.90. Cup bases are NEM 71.35, DKS 40.95. 3 week tight patterns are BBBY 63.40, SBUX 43.53 (had nice earnings after close). CHKP has a 61.70 cup with high handle base.

Stocks which can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are PAY 44.25, CRM 135.50, EMC 25.60, TXN 32.20, BBT 25.25, EOG 100.85, XOM 80.25, HON 54.50, EMR 53.20, ATU 24.75, CAT 98.25, URI 25.35. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs today were JNY DFS XRAY DTV AVGO LLTC NOV NBL VLO PCLN PH CMI. Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are JNY 11.95, NTGR 34, JOYG 87.90. FL NTGR ADP GRA all found 200 day support today. WYNN can be shorted at 200 day resistance near 138. XLNX EXXI PXP UPS AVT PLL all met 200 day resistance today. ANN lost its 40 week MA today.

Stocks near 50 day support are CELG 63, BMY 31.15, MAKO 37.40, CVI 25.20, X 25.50, WY 17. Stocks that found 50 day support today were LULU FOSL AGU AAPL GS JPM WFC BHI MMM. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs to the upside today were AA KO PCP DFS MAKO AVGO NVDA HAL HFC BTU EXPD PCLN. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AMZN 222.50, HSY 58.70, ATHN 60. HSY WPI VIAB IBN all met 50 day resistance today. ALXN can be shorted with a sell stop @63.55 as it loses 10 week support.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE ORCL.

Wednesday After Market

Markets rallied Wednesday, finishing higher for the first time in November. Volume was tepid at best however, suggesting many big market players remain unconvinced. The S&P 500 outperformed the Nazz gaining 1.6%, compared to the latters 1.3%. Indexes closed near their highs for the session, and other bullish traits sprung up today. More leading stocks are setting up bases as discussed in the next paragraph. Some broke out today including GNC from a 25.96 double bottom with handle buy point. It certainly helps as well to see how recent breakouts are faring to gauge the markets health. Two recent ones that come to mind are COG HUM. HUM added another 2.5% on top of the 80.74 double bottom buy point it took out Monday on earnings. COG is now better than 2% higher after clearing its 78.75 double bottom buy point. Stocks reacted well to earnings reports today as well with the likes of PXD gaining 13%, EOG 11%, PAG 10%, MA 7%. SMH traded lower demonstrating some weak relative strength today. Some outperformers in the group included SIMO up 22% today, and KLAC NVLS both up 1%. I am not wildly bullish here, but you have to be prepared for either way the market may turn. As always buy strength, and sell weakness. Today that was evidenced by JAZZ which turned south after hitting 50 day resistance and finished lower on a nice tape today. MAKO encountered 50 day resistance as well today. Indeed the weak do get weaker. Stocks trading higher in after hours action include QCOM up 10%, and WFM down 5%. WFM had a bearish outside day on huge volume Wednesday on a benign tape on huge volume, before earnings were released after the close. That is one of those things that makes you go hmmmmmmm. Earnings come Thursday from SBUX APA CBOE CBS CHK ED DTV EL HANS IACI K MTZ MCHP WNR.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup bases NEM 71.35, PVH 75.96. BBBY in a 3 week tight pattern with a buy point of 63.40. BEAV 39.08 in a cup with handle base. Double bottoms with handles are WNR 17.87 (earnings Thursday), PXD 99.74. FE has a flat base buy point of 46.61. Many stocks are now one day from completing handles in valid bases whether they be double bottom or cups. Stocks in that process include MCO AXP ORCL ABV DSW TIF UNP JOYG.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are JNY 12.25, KKR 15.25, PAY 44.15, EOG 101, VLO 25.45, JOYG 88.15. GG FMC both reclaimed their 40 week MAs. Stocks that can be bought near 200 day support are NVLS 33.50, SWN 40.10, BWA 72.25, FL 21. Stocks that found 40 week support Wednesday were NTGR R CTXS CBS NVLS JBL. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are CMI 101, XLNX 32.50. Stocks that encountered 40 week resistance Wednesday were JNY ADP XRAY CMCSA LLTC CBOE PX NBL RDSA WYNN CMI. XLNX lost its 200 day MA today having a bearish outside day in the process.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are KO 68.60, AA 10.95. BHP RIO JPM WFC CVI X all retook their 10 week MAs. Stocks that can be bought near 50 day support are ED 57, SO 42.25, BUD 53.35, DLTR 76, SBUX 39.60 (earnings Thur) V 89.10, ALXN 63.75, BMY 31.05, ARMH 27.40, BBT 22, CRZO 26, SLB 69.25, X 25, WY 16.95. FCX EBAY DE CELG BMY all found 50 day support Wednesday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are LULU 53.75, ROVI 45.75. WFM IACI NVDA EXPD all lost their respective 10 week MAs Wednesday. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AMZN 222.50, HSY 58.50, WPI 67.95, HFC 32. HANS BAX AVGO HAL all encountered 10 week resistance Wednesday.

Stocks that have gapped up and can be bought within that gap up as long as it remains intact are MCD 91.25, ORLY 75, SWI 27.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE ORCL.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Stocks were pummeled Tuesday, on its traditional "turnaround Tuesday". Pick your poison. Europe, slow China PMI, does not matter. As technicians we pay close attention to the tape. And today was not pretty. Volume expanded, which is obviously not a good sign. The Nazz lost 2.9%, and managed to close above its psychologically important level which held in both mid March and June. That level then proved to be resistance for the month of September, only to break through it in October. The S&P 500 lost 2.8%, and looks poised for a 50 day MA test near 1195. The 200 day MA on the SDS has proven to be prescient in forecasting short term market tops and bottoms is fast approaching its 200 day MA near 22. Perhaps the rally can resume then. Time will tell. It would be very easy to point out where the weakness was prevalent today, but tonight lets look for where the relative strength was amidst the carnage. Retail was a decent performer today. XRT, which managed to go positive early so briefly today, found 200 day support and looks to be building a handle on its cup base. Many stocks in the group actually had some nice intraday reversals to close near their highs for the day. They included PVH DSW LTD M JWN TJX WSM. Energy took it on the chin today but two stalwarts that stuck out well today were COG RRC. COG was off big early most likely in sympathy with SM earnings today. Gave you a chance to get into COG near the lows of the bullish 10/27 gap up. Also in that group EOG SLB SU all found precise 50 day support. CVI CVX SWN the same precise support at their 200 day MAs. Speaking of technical analysis and how simple MAs like the 50 and 200 days are important, lets take a look at some stocks that reported earnings today and how they reacted. SM FE EMR all found almost exact 50 day support before catching bids and going higher Tuesday post earnings reports. AMT did the same off its 200 day support. WPI found almost exact 50 day resistance after earnings today. Other leaders today which did not report earnings but found exact 50 day support were TSCO CHKP ALXN CELG BIDU TGT. AAPL also found strong support at its 50 day MA but its weekly chart shows lots of troubling distribution. CNI NSC, transports showed some good intraday reversals. Banks were weak with the XLF dropping 5%. GS MS found 50 day support, while JPM WFC could not say the same. Tomorrow we see earnings from CMCSA CLR DVN FWLT MA QCOM PAG WLL WFM CXO.

Stocks near exact buy points in this now more cautious environment include FE 46.61 in a flat base, GNC 25.96 in a double bottom with handle base, and COG 78.75 in a double bottom base. Yesterday we discussed how some leading stocks which recently broke out tend to retreat to their break out spots. Today two semis did just that with KLAC falling back towards its 44.69 double bottom with handle base, and INTC retreating to its 23.49 double bottom base buy point. Others that could be put on a watch list include CHKP which found exact 50 day MA support and could be forming a cup with high handle base. Potential buy point is 61.70. VMW looks to be forming a handle in its cup base. Remember the handle has to be 5 days in duration to be considered valid. And finally AET could be forming a potential handle in its double bottom base Found solid 50 day support today and hails from the same group as HUM which just broke out after a strong earnings report Monday.

Stocks hear 200 day support which can be buys if they hold are HSY 55.80, PCP 153, MON 69.75, CERN 59.15, INTU 50.25, TIBX 25.75, ACN 55.10, MXIM 25.05. Stocks that found 200 day support on this tough tape today were ANN DKS FOSL YUM KO MKC MON FFIV RAX NTGR ATHN CTXS ORCL SAP MCO CBS VZ NVLS XLNX PPG CVI CVX SWN UNP JBL BWA BEAV. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are DMND 67, ADP 51. Stocks that surrendered 40 week support today were EBAY R ARBA ADP XRAY JNJ LLTC GRA NBL PCLN TYC JOYG KMT CBI IFF.

Stocks near 50 day support and also can be bought if it holds are SO 42.20, BUD 53.50, PM 67.15, SBUX 39.50, WFM 67.75, MA 330.40 (earnings tomorrow), V 89.10, CRM 125, AZN 45.95, BMY 31, ADI 33.95, BBT 22, BK 19.95, NTRS 37.05, PNC 49.80, APA 93, COP 66.90, XOM 74.75, HES 57.25, WY 16.95. Plenty of stocks found 50 day support today among the wreckage and they include JNY NEM FCX SCCO ED ABV LULU BID AGN DE DELL ABC BMY DTV CE DOW EMN PX DVN TCK EXPD LVS IFF. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are HANS 88, IACI 40, BAX 55, MAKO 37, WPI 68, HFC 31.75. ROVI can be shorted with a sell stop @45.75, as it loses it 50 day MA. Stocks which lost 50 day support today were AA BHP RIO TAP K LMT IACI MAKO VIAB QCOM NVDA JPM IBN WFC BHI HAL BTU MMM ABB FWLT X.

Gap ups still holding include DECK MCD ORLY SWI QCOR COG.

Good luck.

The author owns some FCX DE. We bought a little more as both found 50 day support today. We also purchased some ORCL as it found 200 day support today.