Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Thursday Game Plan

Markets were harpooned toward the end of the trading session on Wednesday after Fitch made some comments regarding US banks. Volume grew and as we know markets that end weak on heavy volume are hallmarks of bearish action. The two heaviest volume days occurred this month on 11/1 (Nasdaq down 3%), 11/9 (Nasdaq down 4%). However the Nasdaq did quickly find support at its 2600 level. It looks headed for their again, where its upward sloping 50 day MA resides. Amid all the volatility the VXX reclaimed its 50 day MA in higher volume. That ETF has had a serious trend change ever since recapturing its 200 day early in August. Talking about the banks the XLF found support right at its 50 day MA today on weak volume, which is a plus. MS JPM were both down 4 and 8% respectively both losing 10 week support in the process. Retail took a hit today with ANF plunging 20%. The XRT however still looks decent as it builds its handle and is approaching 200 day support tamely. Stick with the leaders in that group. PIR hit an all time high yesterday. AMZN looks headed for a 200 day test at......$200 soon. CJES had a nice day today gaining more than 5% on a horrible tape. Relative strength noted. Stocks that look to be attractive at specific levels are INTC at 24.50, SCSS 20. Earnings tomorrow come from DLTR INTU.

Stocks to look for support at their 200 day MAs are BUD 56.60, JWN 46.20, WSM 37, BIDU 135, ARBA 31, ORCL 31.65, SAP 58.50, ARMH 28, ASML 38.80, APC 76, FMC 80, EOG 100, EXXI 30.40, OXY 96.50, PXP 33.95, PLL 52.15, PH 82.25, PPG PAG here. Stocks that found 200 day support in the wreckage today were PAY CBS DTV VZ XLNX PPG RDSA SWN TYC PAG. Stocks to look for 10 week support to hold are DECK 103, NKE 91, FL 21.50, VFC 130, NEM 65.75, RIO 52, FCX 37.50, ED 57.50, SO 42.65, BBBY 59.80, TPX 62, MON 70.50, AXP 48, KKR 12, V 90.60, ACN 56, MCO 32.40, CELG 64, BBT 22.30, NTRS 37.55, CVX 100, TCK 35.80, EXPD 43.55, PRU 50, X 24.75. NVDA VLO found 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 200 day support and their sell stop spots are KO 66.75, HSY 55.80, CERN 59.65, AET 39.50, MAKO 29.50, WPI 63.25, LULU 49.75. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were DSW DFS CRM ADP MCO LLTC UPS HON. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ALTR 35.75, DOW 26.20, ITW 45.10. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today BHP CMG DSW DLTR PX WFC PCP JPM BK.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are DLTR 77.50, AGU 77.25, DFS 24.30. WFM AGU BAX BTU WY all met 50 day resistance today. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were XRAY AVGO XOM AVT DHR CAT CMI JBHT.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AKAM 30.40, TXN 31.90, EMR 52.50, CAT 98.30, JBHT 43.30. JOYG retook its 200 day MA today.

Gap ups still holding up even after todays sell off include SBUX EL NUAN.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU. FCX we have about a 10% gain in and its shrinking. If its closes below 10 week support we will book our gain. DE was up and we also have a comfortable gain there. The WMT/LULU pair worked well in our favor today

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