Monday, November 29, 2010

Monday Monday

Markets started very poorly as Europe lagged with the official announcement of Irelands bailout package. In the last 2 hours of the session markets climbed off their lows. Leading stocks outperformed as they should. AMZN NFLX were among the best. Energy, retail were among the best sectors. Volume was below average. SPY themselves bounced right off their 50 day MA. A good sign.

Stocks sporting specific buy points are: TDC @42.08 a flat base. SNDK @46.70, a double bottom base. XOM @72.00, VECO @46.35 both double bottoms with handles. CPX @29.23 a 3 weeks tight pattern. As always demand big volume on the breakout. Other buy spots are BTU thru 60, ARBA CIS both @20. Lets buy X thru 50, its 200 day MA. Lets buy CNI thru 65.25, its 50 day MA.

Stocks that are looking for 50 day MA support are: TRW @45, HOT @56, NBL @80, AA @13, CVLT @28.25, VRSN @33, JNPR @32.50, IBM @141, BIDU @105, ARUN @22, QCOM @46, CSX @60, CAT @80, PTEN @19. Stocks that found support at the 50 day MA today to further demonstrate the lines importance were: COP MUR MOS EMN DD BHP FCX SWC AEM MCD YUM SCCO ARMH AMP BEAV PPG BCSI SIAL FOE XLB.

Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: PSA @96, VNO @80, MRX @26, BUD @54, ATHR @32. EGO found support at its 200 day today. CREE crossed above its 200 day today for the second time in 3 days. Tenacious.

Can CMI be the next member of the "par star" group? Stay tuned. ANR looks like its forming a handle in its cup base. It needs 2 more days to form however. Do not jump the gun. Be patient. TBT can be bought @34, its 50 day MA. QSFT can be shorted under 25, its 50 day. We will be looking to reenter FCX at par. Looked very strong today and was one of the first leaders to start heading higher even when the market was still near its lows early in the session.

Good luck.

The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Sunday Thoughts

Friday was a down day on Wall St. A half day that saw the Dow take the worst of it with a 1% loss. Investors stayed on the sidelines until this week begins with the big players returning. For the week the Dow and S&P feel 1%, but the Nasdaq rose .7%. Steel struggled as retail and tech held up in general. Leaders held up relatively well Friday as stocks such as FFIV CRM CMG RVBD AKAM PNRA DECK all finished higher.

Stocks that have specific buy points are: APA @110.81, APC 67.78, DVN @73.35 all cup with handles patterns. Flat bases show up on SUN @40.73, CHKP @44.57, AAPL @322.30, HAS @48.88. Three week tight patterns show up with CPX @29.23, BLL @66.36. Four weeks tight patterns have formed on HES @72.09, A @37.65.

Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru MAs are: RADS thru 18.60, CNI thru 65.25, INFY thru 68. All those previously mentioned were their 50 day MAs. Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru their 200 day MAs are: X thru 50, GPS thru 21.20 as it breaks from recent consolidation near its 200 day MA. As always big volume must be accompanied with the price action.

Other stocks with buy points that can be bought are BTU thru 60, TIBX thru 20.28, and SOA as it retreats to 21.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MA are: CBI @26, DE @75, WYNN @102, ARMH @18, TRMB @36, BEAV @34, RAI @31, NTGR @30, SIAL @62, BMC @43, KBR @26, FOE @13.75, COP @60, DOW @30, MUR @64, RIG @65, AA @12.80, EMN @77, CE @35, GOOG @580, BIDU @105, PM @58, APH @50, CHRW @71, QCOM @45, AMT here, UNP @86, BHP @82, ABX @48, FCX @95, AEM @75, CAT @80, JOYG @73, YUM @49, NKE @82, KMX @30, SCCO @41, BID @40.

Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: CVX @78, SU @32, UPL @45, CNX @40, VNO @80, BUD @54, NVDA @12.90, EGO @16.50, ATHR @32.

ETFs that should find support at their MAs are: TBT @34, MOO @49.50, XLB @34.50 all their 50 day MAs. FXI @42 is its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted are: QSFT below 25, RIO below 64. Both their 50 day MAs. INTU if it rebounds to its 50 day MA @47 can be shorted.

Lets see if the mythical, legendary Plunge Protection Team can keep GM stock price above the offering @33. Looks like they are having a heck of a time!!

Good luck.

The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Happy Turkey Day

Markets came back back nicely as both retail and chip sectors caught nice bids. Leading stocks again outpaced the indexes, although in lighter volume. That is to be expected the day before Thanksgiving. The major indexes are continuing to find support at their 50 day MAs. Markets had to digest 3 economic reports before the open and they came in mixed. Durable goods missed the forecast, personal income rose and initial jobless claims were much better than expected.

Stocks that remain near buy points are: VECO @46.35, double bottom with handle and MCD @80.00, a flat base. SNDK now has a 46.70 buy point in a double bottom pattern. Although premature CREE which can be bought here as it surged past its 200 day MA, as long as it stays above that line. A potential add on buy point would be 76.24 in a double bottom base.

Stocks that can be bought as they break thru their MAs are: RADS thru 18.65 and CNI thru 65, both their 50 day MAs. VLTR thru 23.25 and GPS thru 21.20, both their 200 day MAs. ARBA has had two big volume moves thru 20 this week, to achieve 5 yr highs. It can be bought as long as it holds above 19, its 50 day. PSA VNO have both risen smartly off their 200 day MAs. BCSI ATHR exhibit long cup bases above both their 50 and 200 day MAs. I like both right here as long as those lines hold. ADSK PETM more recent examples of bad earnings reactions only to have their stock decline halted at their 50 day MAs. I also like BTU if it can break thru recent consolidation @60.

Keep an eye on GES. Nice earnings gap up Wednesday. If it can hold that here for 2-3 days consider buying. Make sure it holds 48. ETFs garnering attention are: JJC back to its 50 day. TBT looking to sniff out its 200 day MA @39. See how it reacts there. KOL XLE MOO have best looking commodity related ETFs to me.

OPEN had noticeable weakness on a strong tape Wednesday. An outside reversal day on 3X normal volume after hitting an all time high. I say all time high as it only came public in 5/09, but a rest looks well needed. DTV VZ both finished in the meekly on a strong day. Both continue to hover beneath their 50 day MAs in big volume. Until they can recapture that MA stay clear, or even short. And even in strong groups laggards can continue to disappoint. Case in point RBCN. A semi that has struggled evr since it lost its 50 day MA on 8/5 of this year.

Good luck. And above all Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy your family and friends and let them know just how thankful you are.

The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Tuesday After Market

Markets suffered a distribution day Tuesday. Indexes sold off in heavy volume and leaders struggled. Ongoing Eurozone concerns and a skirmish between the two Koreas led to the steep decline. SPY did manage to close right on its 50 day MA. Steel and home related stocks were weak, while retail somewhat bucked the trend.

SUN is sporting a 40.73 buy point in a flat base. Stock finished up on a terrible tape. Other leading stocks to finish in the black were RVBD OPEN JWN UA BKI DECK ALTR. Stocks that perform well on a horrible tape warrant a close look if the market can catch a bid.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: APA @102, APC @60, COP @59.50, DOW @30, MUR @64, NBL @79, RIG @65 ("golden cross"), TCK @45, AA @12.75, CRZO @25, TIBX @18.25, GOOG @570, JNPR @32, CHRW @71, IBM @140, BIDU @103, ARUN @21.50, BLL @62, CSX @59, UNP @86, BHP @82, FCX @95, RIO @64, CAT @80, JOYG @72, HS @26.50, MCD @77, YUM @49, SCCO @40, RAI @31, BMC @38, WYNN @100. CVLT IPI TAP all bounced off their 50 day MA today on a terrible tape and finished on their highs of the day.

Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: CNI @61, FDX @84, SWK @58, PFE @16.50, MRX @26, NVDA @13, EGO @16.50.

WYNN will be added to our "par stars index". Aslong as it holds above 100. FCX did close below that number today, but WLT literally bounced right off 100 and closed in the middle of its daily range.

ETFs that are near MAs are MOO which closed right on its 50 day today @49. Needs to hold here. RSX also closed at its 50 day today @34. Commodity nation ETFs EWA EWZ both have now fallen below their 50 day MA in heavy volume. Not a good sign. Dr. Copper ETF JJC lost its 50 day today, athough it is illiquid. FXI 200 day MA is 42.

VZ DTV both failing at their 50 day MAs. VZ having decent AAPL related news and not pushing higher not a good sign. RIMM failing at its 200 day MA.

TSLA strong as a bull. Continues to plow ahead on an apparent 2 week long short squeeze. I dont want to hear about the GM Volt which apparently gets 40 miles to the "gallon" on a plug in charge. TSLA seems to be doing it without government support. At least for now I give Elon Musk two thumbs up.

Portfolio changes include selling BUD ORCL as they broke below their 50 day MAs. May revisit but that was the catalyst that got me in.

Good luck.

The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Monday Monday

Stocks showed some resilience today finishing well off the lows of the day. Leading stocks especially took charge. AMZN NFLX both high beta names that have enjoyed 50 day MA support were among the rulers of the day. When leading stocks outperform the indexes that usually is a very good sign. The Nasdaq was the only major index to finish in the black. Volume was weak today, and retail, semis and networks were among the best sectors of the day.

Stocks showing specific buy points are: VECO @46.35 and NETL @32.30, both double bottom with handle bases. APA @110.83 and NLC @30.60, both 3 week tight patterns. CMI @96.73 and GPC @48.62, both flat base patterns. BBY @45.51 a cup with handle base. And remember the buy points that are very close we discussed over the weekend. CHRW @73.23 and MCD @80.00, both flat bases. JWN @42.96 a double bottom with handle pattern.

Stocks that should provide 50 day support and those levels are: RIG @65, AA @12.75, HS @26.50, IBN here, AMP @50, RAI @31, PMTC @20.50. More stocks that have found support at their 50 day MA are: WYNN @100, CVX @83, INFA @38, TIBX @18, ORCL @28, PX @91, ARUN @21, APKT @38, FOE @14, VIT @33.50.

My new so called "par stars" are: WLT WLL FCX. All these are now above 100 and as long as they remain above that triple digit they should be held long. UNP will be the next one to join that club is my prediction.

Stocks that are near their 200 day MA are: RIMM currently in a downtrend right here. VNO PSA, both real estate stocks have found support at their 200 day. JCG is looking to challenge its 200 day @39. If it can get past their put in a buy stop above 39. SWN can be bought above 39, its 200 day MA. ATHR can be bought here as its 200 day now looks like solid support. MRX @26 and EGO @16 should enjoy support there at the 200 day.

Stocks that have enjoyed strong gap ups and still looking powerful are: RVBD WFMI FFIV COH CRM BRCM FO XXIA GPC RL FL CMG MXIM DKS. Gap up are very bullish signs and should be purchased if the gap up holds for 3 days after the gap up has occurred.

Changes in the portfolio today were buying CAKE thru 30.85 in a cup base.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL CAKE NVDA BUD ARMH.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets with all their gyrating this week basically closed UNCH. Friday brought news from China that they were raising bank reserve requirements for the fifth time this year. Indexes shrugged off that news to settle with small gains near their highs of the day. Retail performed very well with ANN HIBB FL breaking out on earnings reports. CRM MRVL also screamed higher on their own earnings as well. New 52 week highs on the Nasdaq and NYSE were 170, compared with 35 52 week lows. HPQ has earnings Monday.

As markets digest their recent run up stocks are consolidating before deciding on their new direction. Most have tried to rebound off their MAs, while some other are now offering specific buy points. 3 week tight patterns have been established on HES @72.90, FDO @49.94, JCI @37.65, UNP @92.81. Stocks with flat base buy points are: CHRW @73.42, MCD @80.00, HAS @48.88, AGP @44.95. TAP has a 50.55 buy point in a cup with handle base. CAKE has a 30.85 buy point in a cup without handle. MRVL has a 21.10 buy point in a double bottom with handle pattern.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: IPI @30, DE @75, RIG @65, AA @12.75, ORCL @28, JOYG @72, HS @26.50, AMP @50.50, FOE @13.50. Just to demonstrate how important the 50 day MA is here are some more examples of stocks that found 50 day support this week. WYNN @100, CVX @83, TIBX @18, AAPL @295, TDC @38, APKT @38, AMT @51, CHRW @70, SWC @18, YUM @48, NKE @80, SIAL @62, PM @57.50, BEAV @33.50.

CNI can be bought thru 65.25 and CTSH thru 66 as both try to retake their 50 day MAs. SWN can be bought thru 50 and X thru 50 as they both try to reclaim their 200 day MAs. EGO has found support at its 200 day MA @16.50 and SNDK has found support at its 50 and 200 day this week. It can be bought here with a sell stop under 38.

SOA under going huge accumulation after a recent breakout from a cup base. Great action. ETFs on their MAs are EWA at its 50 day here, XLF back to its 50/200 day. Looks shaky here, but let the market confirm the move either way. WLT screamed thru par Friday, something we predicted as it hugged its 50/200 day MA this summer. Breakout thru par looks solid. FCX mirrors the WLT thru par action.

AAPL GOOG both finished lower on the day. QSFT can be shorted under 24.75, its 50 day MA.

Portfolio changes are long ARMH @18.35 as it retook its 50 day MA in good volume. In the rapidly improving semiconductor sector as well.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL NVDA BUD ARMH.

Friday, November 19, 2010

AM Meandering

Markets fought back to recapture most of the weeks losses Thursday. Gains were broad and leaders were strong. Optimism over the GM IPO and a strong Philly Fed number helped the markets enjoy healthy gains. Ireland seen to be open to an economic package also helped. Leading stocks that had earnings and continued to enjoy robust gains were ARUN LTD NTAP.

Stocks that can be bought if they pass thru their 50 and 200 day MAs are: SMG thru 52.25, AKAM thru 49.50, ARMH thru 18.25. Those are all their 50 day MA. Stocks that can be bought as they move thru their 200 day MAs are: RRC thru 43.50, SWN thru 38.50, GPS thru 21.20.

Both MCO XRX found 50 day support today. PETM had earnings and looks headed for its 50 day MA @36. Watch to see how that stock performs there. Another example of a stock plunging post earnings to find support at its 50 day MA is SPRD. It ended up closing strong on its highs of the day.

GS is now sporting a 171.71 buy point in a cup with handle pattern. OIH has a 103.38 buy point in a cup with handle pattern. Recent ETFs that have found 50 day support include JJC RSX MOO SPY.

COH was a standout on an otherwise relatively weak retail tape. Something to keep an eye on. RIMM can be shorted if it fails to break above its 200 day MA @59.

Portfolio changes include buying NVDA @13.20 as it enjoys 200 day support post earnings and BUD @60.25 as it passed back thru its 50 day MA.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL BUD NVDA.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

AM Musings

Markets are strong this AM after a mixed finish yesterday. Optimism of GEs IPO, Ireland problems possibly resolved and jobless claims. Volume came in below average levels suggesting big players (mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds) didnt sell en masse.

Stocks that continue to find support at their 50 day MA are: MAR @37, INTU @46.50, RHT @40.50, ORCL here, EMN @76, AAPL here, ARUN @21, AMT @51, APKT @39, CHRW @70, HAS @46, YUM @48, NKE @80, IBN @51. Stocks that will look to find support at that 50 day MA are: CAT @79, IPI @29, WYNN @100, APC @60, COP @59, MUR @64, NBL @78, AA @12.50, ABX @47.50, AMP @50, CVLT @28, INFA @38, TIBX @18, CE @34, JNPR @32, TDC @38, RAX @25, SWC @17. A buy stop on BUD can be put in @60.25 as it clears its 50 day MA. Same for ARMH @18.25 as it drives thru its 50 day. Has been basing there tightly for a couple weeks now.

Stocks that found support at their 200 day are: ROG @65, NVDA @13, EGO @16.25. JCG looks to challenge its 200 day MA @39. Put in a buy stop just above that number.

QCOM now has a 49.55 buy point in a cup with handle pattern.

Gap ups still intact are RVBD PH BRCM WFMI.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Night Charting

Distribution days are starting to add up for the indexes. Leaders getting hit, and 52 weeks lows outpacing 52 weeks highs for the first time in a long while added to the gloomy outlook here. Today it was continuing concerns over potential China interest rate hikes and Irish debt issues. Perhaps the market just needs a healthy correction here, having a huge recent advance.

Stocks again are not providing specific buy points, but testing support levels. Equities that are trending toward their 50 day MAs are: AXTI @7, YUM @48, MUR @63.50, NBL @78, AA @12.50, INFA @38, INTU @46, TIBX @18, AAPL @295, NTAP @51, TDC @38, BIDU @100, QCOM @45, SWC @17, CAT @78, JOYG @71, GPC @46, MDC @76.50, PM @57, AMP @50, TRMB @35, PAY @30, BEAV@33, XRX @10.75, BMC @42.50, CBE @50, NTGR @28, DFS @17, SIAL @61.50, KBR @25, M @23, CCL @40, PLL @42.

Stocks that found support at their 50 day today despite the nasty sell off and must be commended are: DE CMI HOT CVX EMN NKE EMC CHRW VALE IBN QSFT RHT ORCL HAS. See how they perform in the next sessions.

Stocks that found support today at their 200 day MA are: RIG @65, FDX @84.25, EGO @16.50. Stocks trending toward their 200 day MA and where that support is are: CNI @61, NEM @57, PFE @16.45, MRX @26, MRVL @18.50.

Individual stocks that performed well on a horrendous tape were retail stocks. JCG LULU MELI WMT URBN DKS COST UA. Semis TQNT CREE both finished in the black today. Energy stocks that finished in the black despite cruse being down 3% today were CRZO CXO. Take note. WFMI BRCM gap ups still intact.

Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs CB CTXS CRM. JKS down 7 days in a row also now below its 50 day. Real estate got hit today hard. SPG VNO BAM PSA. Although most found support at 50 or 200 day MAs be careful. Heavy volume accompanied the move down.

JJC sold off in huge volume but found support at the 50 day. EWZ could be headed for 200 day MA @71.

Will be looking for shorting opportunities from here on out.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL.

Don't Cry for Me Argentina

In the face of tragedy, the beauty of opportunity awakens and educates. Not even a month removed from ex-president Nestor Kirchners' death, Argentina is hopeful for a transformation. World leaders extended their condolences to current president and widow Christina Kirchner while stocks spoke in their own language. They soared. Markets in Buenos Aires were closed for Census Day on October 27th but Argentinean equities that trade on international exchanges skyrocketed, realizing the possibilites of a more business-friendly and political environment.

The dynamic duo of Nestor and Christina Kirchner was increasingly viewed as power on the political decline. Nestor, who became President in May of 2003, was in office until 2007. Christina succeeded him as President in 2007 and is currently in office. The "first gentleman" of Argentina was widely thought to continue a political dynasty, planning to run for President in next year's elections (Argentine law states that a President can have an unlimited number of terms as long as they are not successive). He was seen as the real power figure during his wife's administration. Regardless, the pair - hailing from the legendary Peronist party - has seen their left-leaning views losing lusture.

The popularity the Kirchners enjoyed began its descent for a number of reasons. During Nestor's term, he enjoyed widespread popularity. He guided the country through the economic crunch on the back of a worldwide commodity boom. The problems began to creep up during Christina's term. In 2009's midterm elections (similar to ours here last week), the power broker couple and their party suffered heavy losses. She had a negative face off with farmers, upon whom she imposed a huge tax hike. Massive protests and strikes left her embarrassed and withdrawing the increases. Christina also nationalized the country's Social Security pension system. The theft of $30 billion in private retirement funds from her citizens accelerated her demise. Regardless, she has sought to silence her dissenters in the media. Her courting of President Hugo Chavez, who is increasingly looking like a polarizing figure in the region, is adding to her fragility.

When markets speak, it's very wise to listen. The recent run up in Argentinean bonds and equities is a stark reminder that countries who attempt to liberate themselves from suffocating government will be viewed in a favorable light. Argentineans are growing tired of incompetent politicians. They loathe their high crime and poverty rates. Inflation is spiraling out of control and much worse than actual reports as Nestor took control of the country's National Statistics Institute in 2007. Argentina is geographically in a wonderful spot. Touching both economic powerhouses of Chile and Brazil, it should be in much better shape than it is now. Let's hope that voters next year remind themselves of that when they head into the ballot box.

AM Meandering

Stocks exhibited more bearish behavior today. Closing on their lows after opening upon their highs. Leaders such as AMZN AKAM JNPR all fell. And the negative reaction to good economic news (strong auto and retail sales), and merger activity was not inspiring either. Volume did fall however. Today look for PPI, industrial production and WMT earnings.

DTV can be shorted below 42, its 50 day, after the big outside reversal on 11/4. SQM, sell stop below 49, its 50 day as well. OPEN found 50 day support but the stock is well extended and could be shorted if it loses that 50 day. VMW closed back below its 50 day. Volume never kicked in on the upside as it broke thru its 50 day, which prevented us from buying.

Stocks that should hold their 50 day MA are: PCP here, FOE 13.10, SIAL 61.50, PPG @74.50, BKI @16, AMP @50, SWKS @21, NKE @80, HAS @45.50, HS @26, DD @45.75, AMT @51, ARUN @21, NTAP @51, INFA @38, EMN @75.50, NBL @78, HOT @54.25, JKS @30. If they can hold that line consider it bullish. If not look to short. Stocks that should hold at their 200 day MA are: RIG @65, CNX @40, VNO @80, EGO @16.25.

BCSI rallied nicely off its 200 day today. MCO sporting a 29.03 buy point in a cup with handle base.

ETFs that are looking for 50 day support are: FXI @44.25, EWZ here, EWG @23, EWA @24. RSX now has a 36.51 buy point in a cup with handle base. XLF 200 day MA is 14.75. Look for support there. TBT which broke thru its 50 day in good volume on 10/14, is looking to challenge its 200 day MA near 39.25 very soon. See if it can blast thru that line to continue its uptrend. Or it might prove resistance.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Weekend Warrior

Concerns of potential China increasing interest rates delivered a poor showing for US indexes. Before the open the Shanghai composite dropped more than 5%. Although our markets did drop, they finished off the lows. However, the markets leaders were wounded. AAPL BIDU among others were weak. When the leaders drop, caution is the name of the day. A look at the daily S & P 500 chart shows a cup with high handle base developing. Is this index headed to its 50 day MA near 1160? Only time will tell.

Most charts seem extended here. Stocks are not showing specific buy points for the most part. They are trying to consolidate their recent gains or drifting back toward moving averages. The all important 50 day moving average is where the weakness usually stops. A number of stocks that can get there this week are: HOT @54, JKS @30, TTM @27, MUR @64, NBL @79, SU @33, SUN @37, CVLT @28, INFA @38, INTU @46, QSFT @25, RHT @40, TIBX @18, ORCL @27.75, EMN @75, BAM @29, EMC @21, ARUN @21, AMT @51, DD @45.75, CHRW @70, EXPD @48, UNP @85, CLF @65, VALE @31, CAT @78, JOYG @70, VIT @33.75, COST @63, NKE @80, MT @33.75, IBN @51, BBD here, OVTI @24, SWKS @21, AXTI @7, AMP @50, CB @57, TRMB @34, PAY @30, BEAV @33, NTGR @28, TKR @40, SIAL @62, KBR @25, CCL @40. Stocks which may show support at their 200 day MA are: RIG @65, CNX @40, VNO @80, CNI @61, SWK @58, DISCA @38. See how these perform at that line of support. If they bounce off of it in strong volume its safe to buy. If that line gives consider shorting it.

Some stocks which are showing buy points are: ANN @24.92, a cup with handle. TROW @60.62, a cup with high handle. As long as NVDA can stay above its 200 day MA @13, stay long. GPS above 21, put in a buy stop above its recent consolidation, and 200 day MA. UPL is holding its gains above its 200 day as its peers SWN RRC are faltering there. Something to keep an eye on.

Stocks that showed strong relative strength Friday included JNPR AVGO. Keep an eye on those for tells in those stocks. MSCC had a nice earnings gap up and WFMI recent earnings gap up still intact. SOA which we recently flagged a few weeks ago blasted out of the right side of its base this week. Look for an entry point around 19.75.

VXX had a big move upward in monster volume Friday. I see no reason why in the next week or so it can not gravitate toward its 50 day near 54. Stocks that can be shorted are: OPEN under 62, ARBA under 18.75, CTXS under 63.75. All there 50 day MAs. SQM had a negative outside reversal day 11/9. Put a sell stop in under 49, its 50 day, to short it.

Quick note. I have no opinion on the stock at all but TSLA chart continues to perform well. Regardless of how you feel about Elon Musk he perhaps may be delivering a type of car and profitability that many were skeptical about.

We are now out of RADS as it dropped below its 50 day MA. We are getting real small here as the market direction is a little uncertain here. As always we remain vigilant and have our buy list ready.

The author owns ORCL.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Evening Thoughts

Indexes battled back from an early plunge after CSCO took the Nasdaq down over 2% at the open. Markets to their credit rallied back. Lets keep in mind CSCO is a former leader. Leading stocks performed admirably. Volume fell with the exception of the Nazz where volume increased due to huge volume in CSCO.

Regarding CSCO networkers took it on the chin early. However most in the group were able to climb there way back to close at session highs. JNPR finished unchanged after being down almost $2 intraday. ARUN found 50 day support. NTGR finished near its highs for the day. All these probably gained market share on CSCO.

ORCL found 50 day support to close on its highs of the day. CHRW found 50 day support to. DD 50 day is 46. NVDA is trading just above its 200 day line after posting a fine earnings report after the close. See if it manages to close above the line. Remember to put in your buy stop on RIMM above 60. RIMM demonstrated strong relative strength today.

CNX RIG continue to trade above their 200 day MAs. SWN RRC continue their fight with their 200 day MA.

Sure GS boosted HAL target and estimates today. The stock hit a 2 yr high today. This after the intraday 10/28 plunge after the government tried to blame HAL for the spill. Shame on the government. Good work HAL.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL RADS.

Mid Morning Thoughts

Stocks performed admirably Wednesday after an early morning selloff. They staged a nice afternoon rebound although the volume was not above average. The miners recovered some of the previous days outside reversals. That battle is far from over. Techs could be in the spotlight after CSCO plunge after hours regarding Chambers comments. The Nasdaq could obviously see some repercussions due to the fact that although the company is a laggard it still has a big chunk of the indexes market weighting.

Stocks looking for 50 day support are: CHRW @70. BBD @20.50, WYN @28. BUD bounced right off its 50 day yesterday and for all you Speedo lovers out there lets see if WRC can hold its 50 day @52. As far as retail goes the luxury names are proving that the wealthy are still spending from the looks of charts on COH TIF SKS WSM. RL had a montser earnings move yesterday in the group and JWN is building the right side of its base.

Networking names that may fall due to CSCO today include ARUN NTGR. ARUN should find support @21, its 50 day. NTGR should find support @29, its previous breakout point.

Software names were strong today. CRM continues to hold its 50 day. CTXS VMW also continue to do well.

MRVL is starting a handle thats 3 days long now in its double bottom base. Potential buy point is 20.10. RIMM was stopped at its 200 day yesterday. If it can get above 60 put in a buy stop there. If not steer clear. LOGI near 20 looks good on a pullback. PFE looking for 200 day support @16.50.

Energy behaved decently today. CRZO is holding above its 26.26 buy point. CNX held above its 200 day. SWN is battling with its 200 day MA. MT held its 200 day. If X can print a 50 handle it would bode very well technically. Same for NUE AT 42. Buy stops on those right above the 200 day seem very good. EWZ near 76 its 50 day looks good. PCP near 135, back to its previous breakout point looks good to. See how it trades there.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL RADS.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

AM Musings

Stocks suffered a distribution day as volume climbed in heavy fashion. A dollar rally contributed to the fall especially in commodity related names. GOP voicing concerns over QE2, finance ministers around the world calling out Bernanke, and the CME raising margin requirements did not help the dollar. Although the market needed a break be vigilant to see if this could lead to an overdue healthy correction.

CRZO took out a 26.26 buy point in a cup with handle base on big volume. TKC did the same @19.48 bucking the markets weakness. Some software names held up decently today. VMW can be bought thru 82, its 50 day MA. Volume did not kick in yesterday to confirm the move. RIG still above its 200 day MA. Look for support there @65.50 to hold. APC looks like it could drift back to its 50/200 day MA @59.

Leaders 50 day MA that should hold at that line include: CVX @82, HOT @54, CHRW @70, ARUN @21, ISLN @25.25, COST @63, YUM @48, BUD @59. RADS needs to hold right here at its 50 day MA.

WFMI gap up had the stock bucking the weak day as well. ECA could challenge its 200 day MA @30.75 some point this week. See how it fares there. ANN looks to be forming a handle in its cup base. Remember it must be at least 5 days to be technically sound handle so be patient.

X was denied at its 200 day MA again yesterday. If it could ever get thru that line put in a buy stop. CIB needs to hold right here at its 50 day MA. CTSH could be shorted below 66, its 50 day. Same for OPEN which could be shorted under 62, its 50 day. SMG 50 day now resistance @52, its 50 day MA. Look for support near the 200 day @47.

Gold and silver miners really took it on the chin yesterday. Many had outside reversals. Other names that had outside reversals and should be watched carefully for they are bearish in nature are: EGO FCX ANV BVN NEM CLF SLW SWC VALE ROK SCCO EBIX SQM CAM FTI SLB WLT.

Good luck.

Sold my FCX for a 4 dollar gain and CAKE for a one dollar gain.

The author owns ORCL RADS.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

AM Meandering

Markets took a small pause Monday. Taking a look under the hood however, did show some groups that buyers were active. Energy, chips, autos led the way. A telling sign were how the energy and commodity groups bucked the stronger dollar Monday. Last Friday among stocks on their 52 week high list, and there were plenty, energy led the list. Buy strength.

In the energy sector RIG took out its 200 day MA @66. That line was resistance all last month. RIG has performed well since we flagged it popping above its 50 day MA in strong volume in early August. CNX also took out its 200 day MA @40 in good volume yesterday. These both can be bought here as long as they stay above that 200 day and close above that line. UPL took out its 200 day @44.50, although it was in lower volume. Look for RRC to challenge its 200 day @43 and SWN to do the same with its 200 day @38 this week. Buy stops can be put in for both RRC SWN above those lines. PBR remains above its 50 day MA @35. Look for it to gravitate toward its 200 day @38.

CRZO has a buy point of 26.26 in a cup with handle base. WLT has a 99.55 buy point in an 8 month cup base. May go on to form a handle however. NEM broke thru its 50 day MA @62. Look for it to make yearly highs above 65.50 soon. CAT broke out of a flat base last Thursday @81.30 and is still holding that breakout nicely.

Tech stocks that show my interest right now are: VMW. Put a buy stop @81.50 if it can regain its 50 day MA in strong volume. RIMM headed for a 200 day challenge @59. A (Agilent) is nicely building the right side of its base.

Retail has been popping back up the radar with plenty of leaders (COH TIF WFMI SBUX NKE) showing the way. GPS, although a laggard, can be bought here as long as it can hold its gap up above 20. Right now displaying 200 day support. Watch for 50 day support on BUD @59.

Gap ups still intact include BRCM WFMI COH GPC XXIA LTD HES.

ETFs doing well include FXI which blew thru a triple top on 10/13 and has not really looked back. XLF XHB both sectors that have not performed particularly well recently may be looking to play catch up. They both blasted thru their 200 day MA last Thursday.

Possible short candidates include: MRX, further losing its 50 day MA in big volume. Look for support now at 200 day @26 and resistance at the 50 day @29. DISCA, same chart. Support now at 200 day @27, resistance at 50 day @43.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX ORCL CAKE RADS.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

A New Look GOP

As someone who follows patterns, I noticed a relatively ignored trend that developed last Tuesday: the distinct mixture of race, ethnicity and gender of those running for public office. Republicans, who captured the House and came ever-so-close to seizing control of the Senate, will bring a much more diverse cast to Washington than in races past. African Americans, Latinos and Asian congressmen-elect will bring their fresh and contrasting visions to the Oval Office. A "change" is coming to the White House.

Not since the Reconstruction Era have more African American Republicans ran for Congress. At least 32 threw their hats into the ring this November. Ironically, most hit the campaign trail because of President Obama. Obama, who - to his credit - admitted to the shellacking the Democrats took on Tuesday, has confidence in potential black congressmen. Although no African American will be serving in the Senate come January (Ronald Burris retires the Illinois seat he was appointed to by Obama), the House of Representatives will greet two new members: Allen West of Florida and Tim Scott from South Carolina.

Other prominent GOP victories this past week include Tea Party favorite Nikki Haley. Of Indian descent, she becomes South Carolina's first female Governor. Marco Rubio, of Cuban heritage, will be Florida's next Senator. Susana Martinez, a Mexican, is set to become New Mexico's first female Governor. In Nevada, Harry Reid's son Rory lost his gubernatorial race to the Brian Sandoval. In January, he will assume the role of Nevada's first Hispanic governor. All these candidates possess a strong admiration of conservative values. They prefer small government, lower taxes and eliminating any burdening obstacles entrepreneurs face in trying to stimulate job growth.

The media silence surrounding the absence of a Republican African American in Congress since J.C. Watts of Oklahoma (retired in 2003) was disturbing. Maybe it didn't fit the far left image of Republicans as a biased, narrow-minded bunch. Was it coincidence that the media missed reporting almost all of the African American, Hispanic, Asian elect were endorsed by the Tea Party? I think not. They tried to portray the Tea Party as a racist, anti-immigrant organization. Maybe sometime soon we'll be lucky enough to have something other than the partisan media monopoly that exists today. But I'm not holding my breath.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Weekend Warrior

Indexes took a healthy pause after a big rally on Thursday. Volume was tame. Just what you want to see after a big run up. For the week the S&P led the way with a 3.6% gain. The Dow and Nasdaq both finished just under 3%. The jobs number premarket Friday was benign. A stronger than expected 159,000 jobs were created in October but the market failed to rally on the news. As a bull market should act it closed with a late round of buying to finish near highs of the day.

Semis have been strong as of late. TXN hitting 2 yr highs. Looking like its former leader self. Two small caps in the group that had nice earning gap ups recently include: AXTI ATML. Look for them to hold their gap up and move higher. MRVL MXIM looking strong as well. NVDA closing in on its 200 day MA @13. Put in a buy stop just above that line. ARMH continues to struggle with its 50 day line @18. If it can bump up and push thru it put a buy stop @18.25. If it fails there it can be shorted.

The metals are all looking bullishly on the charts here. NEM a buy stop can be put going thru the 50 day MA @62.40. If we can be fortunate to get some ABX @47 near its 50 day pick some up. Put a buy stop in on X @50, the 200 day. It has been stopped at the line in both July and August. Put in a buy stop on NUE @42, also its 200 day MA. Is it any surprise that a foreign steel maker is a little bit ahead of our own domestic steel producers. MT peaked its head above the 200 day line late this week. Purchase it near that line if you can.

A common theme I have repeatedly brought up these last couple weeks are the earnings reactions among leaders. Having negative response to the report (the day of the earnings report) only to find support at its 50 day, then proceed higher. Add AMT which found support @50, its 50 day MA, then finishing 2 dollars higher. DVA PPO CEDC did the same thing late this week. Other names that acted in similar fashion this week were CMI HLF HS CHRW SUN.

Stocks with specific buy points are: ROVI @53.10 (flat base), TKC @19.48 (cup with handle), WLT @99.55 (cup without handle, although it may go on to form a handle). HES broke out on 10/18 @64.78 from a cup with handle base. This week had a nice earnings related gap up. Watch that one closely.

SBUX had an earnings gap up. WFMI gap up still intact, but barely so. XXIA broke away from its recent gap up in big volume this week.

Other entry points for stocks are: CNX @40.50, UPL @45. Both buy stops thru their respective 200 day MAs. CEDC looks to challenge its 200 day this coming week. A buy stop can be put in just above 28, its 200 day.

JCG perked its head up above its 50 day MA ON Friday. BUD 50 day is 59. It should be bought there. CNI needs to hold its 50 day right here. Other stocks looking real strong now are AA GS KBR.

DISCA MRX both losing their 50 day MAs. Lets see if those lines act as resistance their now.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX ORCL CAKE RADS.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

After Hours

Markets exploded today in higher volume. Almost all groups were strong. The SOX had a wonderful day. Tomorrow we have the jobs report. Indexes have made big moves this week with a shift in power of the house and the announcement of QE2. Some stocks in the software sector were well soft. CRM FFIV VMW all finished well lower on the day.

Stocks with specific buy points include: MAN @58.09 TKC @19.48. Both cup with handles. Equities flirting with there 200 day MA are RIG which a buy stop can be put in at 66. UPL buy stop @45 as it goes thru the 200 day as well. MT is now above its 200 day and X seems headed to its 200 day @49.

Gap ups today include: QCOM RIO SLW PAAS AEM WFMI. Recent gap ups MXIM BRCM COH all display very bullish behavior. Breaking away from short term consolidation after recent gap up.

VMW failed at its 50 day MA today. A weak sign on such a positive day. ARMH looking weak as well as it finished lower and still remains below its 50 day MA.

On a totally different note TSLA screamed higher today on an announcement of a 2% ownership stake by Panasonic. For all the bad press it has received I wish the company luck.

Portfolio changes today were getting long FCX thru par and selling CRM SMG for no loss or gain. Poor relative performance today.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL CAKE RADS FCX.

AM Meandering

Stocks perked up and down and closed near highs of the day after the tepid reaction to election. After the fed announced its $600 B treasury purchase program the market found its legs. The Nasdaq closed to finish at a yearly high. Volume came in above average. The market continues its uptrend an the Nasdaq closed also at its highest levels since 2008. QCOM beat after the close which could help to further boost that index today.

RADS @18 and DISCA @42 both found solid support at their 50 day MA after earnings yesterday. We have flagged many of these opportunities recently. Stocks that are now challenging that 50 day MA are CREE EGO PBR. Buy stops can be placed on all of these as they push thru that line. CREE @53, EGO @18.85, PBR@ 35.15. VMW looks to be heading to that 50 day line soon and a buy stop can be place there @81.

SWN has been seeing some strong recent accumulation after breaking thru its 50 day. Perhaps anticipating a more friendly Republican majority. Buy back toward 34 if you can and watch to see how it challenges its 200 day MA near 38. MT is challenging its 200 day right here basically. Buy stop on MT @35.25. NEM, a laggard its the gold mining group behind leaders AEM ABX, could be testing its 200 day MA @56 soon.

SLB NBL continue to look strong. WLT building its right side beautifully. MXIM earnings gap up last week continues to hold up solidly. Very bullish. TRMB also continues to trade well after we flagged its breakout @33.66 on 9/20. Great earnings yesterday.

Good recent defense includes the covering of JKS AVGO much lower. WFMI broke out @40.43 yesterday but having earnings after the close was to risky. Trading much higher in the premarket now of course.

Good luck.

The author owns CRM ORCL RADS SMG CAKE.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Election Day

Stocks rallied again today surprisingly on Election Day. Tomorrow we get the amount of QE2 the Fed will incorporate. Estimates are far and wide with the lower end at $250 million to GS predicting $2 trillion. Volume was up on the Nasdaq but lower on other indexes.

CMI rallied today after finding support after a bad reaction to earnings last week. Much like CHRW and HS it found solid ground at the 50 day MA. HLF did it today. Bouncing off the 50 day near 60 the stock rallied to finish lower but close on the highs of the day. SUN is their now. Sitting at the 50 day after a poor reaction to earnings last week. Lets see what the future holds for SUN. MRX has rallied off the 50 day MA today.

Real estate sector continues to look good. BAM VNO SPG PSA all continue solid uptrends with support along the 50 day MA all along.

JKS had a huge earnings gap up. Probably acclerated by a short squeeze combined with a genuine good number. XOM SLB continue their recent stellar moves of late.

Stocks looking to challenge their 200 day MA include: MT @35, NVDA @13, RIMM @60. Buy stops can be placed on all of those if they can penetrate those numbers on solid volume.

ARMH continues to live below its 50 day @18. Did not show relative strength at all today during the rally. Not a good sign. Lets see how it reacts if it challenges that MA @18.

Good luck.

The author owns CRM ORCL RADS SMG CAKE.

Early Morning Thoughts

Stocks not surprisingly finished flat ahead of the big Election Day. They started off with a bang however after economic news from China and ISM here at home were released. Volume was tame, again waiting not only on today, but the start of the two day Fed meeting and Fridays employment report. Real estate equities were strong today.

Stocks showing specific buy points include: XRX @11.82, cup without handle, PPG @78.10, 3 wks tight pattern. IR @40.23, double bottom with handle. AMT @52.44, flat base. SOA @18.68, cup with handle.

NTGR can be bought @29, back to its breakout spot. XXIA @15, close to its gap up area. AKAM @48, its 50 day MA.

A buy stop can be put on NEM @62.25 as it breaks free thru its 50 day MA. MRX needs to hold its 50 day here. Keep an eye on BLL here. Pulling back after a monster volume move to an all time high for the stock. Buy it on weakness as long as it lives above its 50 day MA @60.

Good luck.

The author holds positions in: CRM ORCL RADS SMG CAKE.