Thursday, September 29, 2011

Thursday Thoughts

Markets acted as if they were on a yo yo string today. Starting out surging, and appearing to roll over late in the day once again, the indexes caught a bid late in the day. The Nasdaq finished in the red, while the S&P 500 rose. The S&P 500 was higher by .8% and appears to be in no mans land. A move above 1200, its 50 day MA, would greatly inspire some confidence. The Nazz has had trouble with its 50 day MA recently and was lower by .4%. Losses by such heavy components as WYNN BIDU AAPL BIDU AMZN weighed down the composite. Of those previously mentioned only AAPL displayed somewhat bullish action by finding support at its 10 week MA. Leaders for the most part were lower today and volume overall was strong. Some retail stocks shined today in a weak sector showing. COH TIF FOSL all were lower by at least 6%. But others were higher on the day including BBBY (which is still sporting a 61.01 cup with high handle buy point), M WSM PETM. Others found exact 50 day support after heavy losses intraday. They were DECK NKE RL TJX. Keep a close eye on stocks demonstrating good relative strength. Banks were higher today with MS up 6.5%, GS JPM both up more than 3%. Rails were rolling along well with both CSX KSU both up more than 4%. DE held its 66 low for the third straight time today. Bullish indeed. Pick your spots and be disciplined.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are XOM 74.30, WFC 25.50, CHKP 55.50, SAP 53.75, ADP 49.15, HON 47.25, DHR 45.25. KO retook its 50 day MA today. Stocks near 50 day support are NEM 61, IACI 39, AMZN 212, DPZ 26.70, FAST 33, ORLY 64, WFM 64, AAPL 385, ACN 54, BAX 55.05. Stocks that found 50 day support today were K CMG MCD PETM PCP ADS ARBA IRM PAYX UAN NDAQ HUM WCN AKRX. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 50 day support and their sell stop spots are HLF 55.50, UAN 23.50, JAZZ 39.60. Stocks that lost 50 day support today were COH ANF GMCR SBUX CMCSA UNH MCHP. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are COH 56.25, CROX 27.30, RAX 36.25, GMCR 101.50, CVS 35.05, ABV 31.95, UPS 66, WAT 80, TXN 27.40. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were WSM DEO AXP EXPE LVS TWC TIBX MCO MCK ADI NVLS.

Stocks near 200 day support are DSW 44, SBUX 36, JWN 45, AMT 52, INTC 21.45. Stocks that found 200 day support today were UA CBOE CHKP UNH AVGO. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are TGT 51.50, PM 65.15, MTZ 19, HS 38, KSU 54. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 200 day support and their sell stop spots are ANF 63.50, EXPE 24.75. Stocks that lost 200 day support today were COH EBAY FOSL PCLN WYNN GTLS ARMH. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are AN 33.90, EBAY 31.10, TIF 67.50, TPX 55.10, PCLN 488, AET 38.50, JBL 19.50. EP ARBA both encountered 200 day resistance today.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE POT. We initiated a position in POT today and we will use todays low as a stop.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Wednesday After Market

Markets continued their bearish behavior Wednesday, opening upon their highs and closing upon their lows. The Nazz led the way down, finishing lower by 2.2%. The S&P 500 was down 2.1%. If there was a sliver lining, volume was weak. But I remember a quote by a salty trader, "you can go broke on low volume." The Nasdaq once again ran into 50 day resistance Wednesday. The SDS reclaimed its 50 day MA today. Markets may be on the verge of entering bear market territory, (our overseas counterparts started the week off well into bear market mode with Russia down 31%, Brazil and India down 30%, Germany down 26%, China 25%), but certain stocks here at home are well into bear markets of their own. Examples of stocks that have been cut in half, without the benefit of a stock split, are CLF AA MCP BTU WLL X RVBD. Commodities were killed today with Dr. Copper leading the way. Both FCX SCCO were slashed by 7%. Oil was down 4%, gold 2%. Ags continued to fall with the likes of AGU POT MON lower by 5%. MOS was lower by 2%, as of this writing on earnings after the close. The SMH lost its 50 day MA today, and after the close AMD, almost an irrelevant semi, cut 3rd quarter numbers. Earnings reports are quiet Thursday.

Stocks near 50 day support are NEM 61, NKE 86, UA 69.25, IACI 39, FAST 33, M 26.30, MCD 87.50, SBUX 38.10, V 86.40, HLF 56, AAPL 385, ORCL 28.30, ED 55, HUM 74.75, KLAC 37.80, LLTC 28.50, AKRX 7.95. Stocks that found 50 day support today were K TIBX BAX WCN AVGO MCHP TXN IT. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ANF 66.25, CMG 311, DPZ 26.50, GMCR 100.50, ADS 91.75, MA 321, CMCSA 21.80, ARBA 27.80, IRM 31.80, BIIB 94.65, UNH 47. Stocks that lost 50 day support today were KO CROX ANN SCSS WSM DEO IFF RRC EXPE QCOM TWC VPHM CLH ADI BRCM LRCX NVLS SMTC ARCO. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are LULU 55.75, CVS 35.25, ABV 32, XOM 74.25, ADP 49. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were TIF AXP EL XOM PCLN WFC CHKP SAP MCO NLSN PAYX WAT PX HS MCK CRS.

Stocks near 200 day support are DSW 44, EBAY 31.05, JWN 45, CVI 21.50, AMT 52, CHKP 52, AVGO 32.05, INTC 21.45. Stocks that received 200 day support today were ACN CRS ARMH. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 200 day support and their sell stop spots are COH 56.75, FOSL 93, PETM 41.95, TIF 67.50, TPX 54.75, WYNN 134, GTLS 45.75. Stocks that lost 200 day support today were DEO AXP EL EP SM LVS MTZ NDAQ AET VPHM. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are AN 34, JBL 19.50. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were DKS TGT PM HFC HS KSU JBL.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets rallied early Tuesday, more than 3% in some cases, only to give back a large portion of those gains by the close. Typical bear market action. Bottoms are normally put in over a long period of slow, rounded patterns. Tame action, not the volatility we are seeing today. Traditionally speaking at least. Today with programs and flash trading perhaps those long rounded bottoming out phases are a thing of the past. Today the Nazz itself finished up 1.2%, surrendering a 3% up move intraday. It hit 50 day resistance and was promptly repelled. The S&P 500 also came close to its 50 day MA and backed well off its highs for the day. Some leading stocks broke out today such as VFC, but for the most part the days action was very soft. Lots of stocks were stopped right at their 50 and 200 day MAs. BIDU TGT VMW KSU all met 40 week resistance today. XOM CMI GNC IP aal encountered 50 day resistance Tuesday as well. Negative reversals were plentiful today and included HSY CROX UA AMZN CMG DLTR JWN JPM. Even with decent early tape, new lows well outnumbered new highs Tuesday. Perhaps a tell was early on when the Nazz was traing near its highs for the day, that both AAPL AMZN were lower on the day. Some bright points could be drawn from the fact that the SMH managed to recapture its 50 day MA today. ACN JBL were both up after hours on an earnings beat. MOS reports after the bell tomorrow.

Although we remain in corrective mode, it is always a requirement to have a watch list of stocks forming valid buy spots. Double bottom with handles are ARMH 29.90, MXIM 25.82. Cup with handles are IACI 43.10, EBAY 34.00. Cup base is CPHD 41.08, and double bottom is INTC 23.38.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CHKP 55.50, FMC 77, HS 38.40. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs Tuesday were DSW WSM RRC CMCSA QCOM TWC TIBX IRM BAX JBL ADI BRCM LRCX TXN. Stocks that are near 50 day support include NEM 61, KO 68.70, V 86.40, USB 23.50, TIBX 23, BIIB 95.50, AKRX 7.95, TXN 27.50. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CROX 27.40, LULU 55, GMCR 100, IRM 31.85. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are RAX 37, FOSL 102, ABV 32, CVI 25.85, COG 71, XOM 74.70, HOG 68, WYNN 147, NTGR 30, UPS 66, NUE 35.05, DHR 45.05, ALTR 37.25, XRT 50. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Tuesday were RGLD AEM RAX FOSL BUD AXP TPX APC XOM WMB EXPE NTGR MTZ CHKP ADP MCO FMC PX MCK IP WAT CMI GNC.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are PM 65.25, KLAC 42.10, MXIM 25.15, IT 37.55. DEO SM retook their 200 day MAs Tuesday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are MON 69.50, BIDU 130.50, B 22. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were GG ABX CVS IFF HFC KSU. AN can be shorted under 33.50 as it loses its 200 day MA. K can be bought at 200 day support near 53.95.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Monday Recap

Markets Monday surged higher on reports Europe may look to rectify their current economic woes. The S&P 500 led the way with a 2.3% gain, compared to the Nazz 1.4% advance. Volume was not as impressive as the days price action. Some of the better performing sectors of the day were banks and retail. JPM advanced 7%, MS 6%, USB WFC both 5%. Retail winners included JWN up 6%, LTD WFM both up 5%. Laggard groups were casinos. WYNN LVS both lost 200 day support intraday, but WYNN managed to reclaim it by the end of the session. Some leaders are in the process of developing bases. 6 that need one more day for a legitimate handle (handles must be at least 5 days in length) are IACI TSCO CBOE CPHD DECK VFC. Of course we already identified cup with handles UA 80.90, EBAY 34.00. Cup with high handle is BBBY 61.01. Some individual stocks are giving you good setups with definitive stops. DE is one which has now found support at 66 twice recently. A move below that number would be your out. Even with todays move, a skeptical stance must be maintained. The amount of negativity is pervasive, which is a concern, but the clearly defined trend is downward. Lets not get in front of a moving train here. If the market wants to move higher, let it prove it on solid volume. If not look for spots of resistance to initiate shorts soon. ACN PAYX report earnings after the close Tuesday.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are DSW 48, CMCSA 22.15, QCOM 52.05, TWC 67.25, CHKP 55, TIBX 23.20, IRM 32.20, VPHM 18.65, JBL 17, BRCM 34.90, LRCX 39. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were KO COH ANN M SCSS TGT ADS HLF USB IBM AET CLH WCN LLTC ARCO. Stocks near 50 day support are M 26.50, CLH 52.60, AVGO 33, AKRX 7.90. Stocks that received 50 day support today were CROX CMG GMCR MCD JWN PETM SBUX ARBA UAN UNH KLAC. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are EL 93.10, GMCR 99.45. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are LULU 56.25, WSM 33.05, BUD 54.10, EXPE 29.05, MCO 32, ADI 33.05, NVLS 29.10, TXN 27.55. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were TIF EL PCLN CMCSA BRCM TXN.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are TGT 51.60, MTZ 18.95, ARBA 30, VMW 91, NDAQ 25.20, BAX 55, IT 37.50. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs today were COH ANF AN M AXP LVS CRS. Stocks near 200 day support are AMT 52, CHKP 51.95. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are K 54, BIDU 130, ANN 26, DKS 37.50, DEO 78.60, EP 18, HFC 29.35, SM 68, ARMH 27.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets displayed meager gains Friday, capping off a miserable week. For the week the Nazz "outperformed" the S&P 500, losing only 5.3%, compared to the S&P 500s 6.5%. The Nazz is 14% below its 52 week high and 6.4% for the year. It is comfortably above its August lows of 2331, that technicians believe is a critical level. The S&P 500 is 17% off its 52 week high and down 9.6% on the year. It is getting uncomfortably close to its August low of 1101. No group was immune from the massive drop this week. Gold joined the carnage with the precious metals ETF GLD lower by more than 9% on the week. Its worst weekly drop since 2008. Many of the remaining leaders hailed from the gold/silver mining complex. They were pummeled this week. Weekly losses in the sector were astounding. ABX 13%, RGLD GG both 11%. SLW lost 19% this week forming a very bearish outside week in the process. Reiterating that the true leaders within leading sectors always outperform. That was evidenced by NEM, which lost just 4%, and found 50 day support as well. Energy stocks which absorbed heavy weekly losses as well were HAL down 21%, EOG CHK NOV all down 18%. DVN APA gave up 16%. More importantly, the two leading stocks in group suffered bruising weeks. SM and COG both had outside weeks, a very ominous future sign. SM gave back 21% this week, COG 13%. SM lost 200 day support during the week, COG its 50 day. Agriculture stocks, a recent leading group had some stocks blasted this week with AGU MOS POT all losing between 18-19% this week. BIDU lost 16% this week losing its 200 day MA and also having an outside week. The market seems to not have that panic feeling to it which can lead to big capitulation days. However some stocks seem to have undergone their own personal capitulation days of their own. MCP down 33% this week, FCX 22%, BTU 20%. These are massive moves. Panic, or margin clerk liquidation? Who knows but the horrific price action does not inspire confidence going forward. Retail stocks were one bright group Friday, perhaps on the back on NKEs earnings report. VFC CROX DECK NKE all leapt higher by more than 5% Friday. And although the wise and prudent thing to do is to reduce position size in this volatile environment, a watch list with possible buys must always be handy. Some equities building valid bases are cup with handles UA 80.90, EBAY 34.00. NDAQ 25.88 in a double bottom with handle formation and BBBY 61.01 in a cup with high handle base.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are TIF 72.25, PCLN 519, USB 23.80, TIBX 23.30, CLH 53, WCN 33, JBL 17.10, ARMH 27.25. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs Friday were CROX NKE PCP TDC ORCL UNH MCHP. Stocks near 50 day support are HANS 82.50, HSY 57.07 (UNCH for the week, very good relative strength), IACI 38.75, DPZ 26.50, FAST 33, TJX 54.25, MXIM 23, MAKO 32.25. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were BBBY CMG SBUX RAI HUM CHD. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CMG 312, GMCR 99, UAN 23.50. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were RGLD ADS RRC. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are COH 57.50, LULU 56.25, ANN 24.05, M 26.60, SCSS 15.45, EL 98, HLF 56, QCOM 52, CHKP 55, TXN 27.70. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were LULU MCD JWN TIF PCLN WCN ARMH BRCM KLAC LLTC.

Stocks near 200 day support are KO 66.15, ABV 30.30, TPX 54.75, CVI 21.20, RRC 54, WYNN 134. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were DSW EBAY PETM TIF EXPE TDC AMT CHKP GTLS INTC. AET retook its 200 day MA Friday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are K 54, BIDU 130, ANF 64, AN 33.75, CVS 35.50, PM 65, AXP 47.15, EP 17.90, HFC 29.40. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were COH ANF AN M. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are EXPE 25.75, LVS 43.70, IRM 30. CRS lost its 200 day MA Friday.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Thursday Recap

Indexes sold off hard in huge volume Thursday. A late day mini rally lets the averages finish off intraday lows. At one point the S&P 500 and Nazz were down almost 5%. They both closed lower by just more than 3%. Obviously some leaders took a hit today. PCLN lost its 50 day MA today on big volume. BIDU lost its 200 day MA, plunging 11%. WYNN lost almost 6%, but bounced right of its 200 day MA. EBAY found exact 200 day support today as well. Leaders that managed to find exact 50 day support were UA BBBY GMCR TSCO AVGO CHD. Today was a dismal day no matter how you slice it however. Ags were slaughtered with the likes of DE MOS both down 6%, DAR 9%, AGU 8%. Steel was battered with ATI down 13%, X 11%, NUE 5%. And these are all intraday, not monthly moves!! Oil down 8%, continued its onslaught with APA COG CHK DVN EOH HES NBL all down by 8%. Miners were hit today with gold off 4%, silver 10%! SLW down 13%, PAAS 10%. ABX was down 8%, BVN 11%. New issues ARCO lost 8%, NLSN 9% today. Media was hit hard, with VIAB down 9%, CBS 7% I thin you get the picture. It was a broad selloff. The all important IYT lost its August lows today. Not a good sign. Taggart Transcontinental times under the idiot James Taggart. (Atlas Shrugged reference!). Some stocks that did show semi bullish behavior today closing upon their highs were KO HANS HSY RL CBOE NDAQ HUM. USB, a bank stock was up today. After hours NKE TIBX were both higher on earnings reports. FDX lowered guidance before the bell, heightening the concern of a future global recession.

Stocks near 50 day support are DECK 91.50, VFC 115, IACI 38.50, CMH 313, DPZ 26.45, FAST 33, TJX 54.10, CPHD 34.50, FE 43.20. Stocks that found 50 day support today were SBUX RAI ADS MA V NDAQ MXIM HSY.

Stocks near 200 day support are CVI 22.10, IBM 164.50, IRM 30, WCN 31.30. Stocks that found 200 day support today were KO DSW TIF EL TPX EXPE LVS TDC AMT CHKP GTLS CRS INTC. EL can be shorted under 93, its 200 day MA. Stocks that lost 200 day support today were GG SLW ABX COH ANF AN CVS FOSL M ABV AXP HFC SM AET BAX GILD ARMH. EP can be shorted at 17.90, its 200 day resistance.

Stocks that lost 50 day support today were AEM BVN LULU MCD JWN SCSS TGT HLF IFF LVS CHKP ORCL CLH BRCM KLAC MCHP SMTC LLTC IT.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Indexes sold off hard after the Fed announcement Wednesday. The S&P 500 lost nearly 3%, after meeting 50 day resistance yesterday. The Nazz lost 2% today, and both indexes lost ground in higher volume for the second consecutive day. No sector was immune from the carnage today as even gold took a hit. Material and machinery stocks are practically forecasting certain recession. CLF down 13%, FCX JOYG BTU all down 7%. CAT BHP both lower by 5%. The recent correlations between energy and the market have been telling. As goes the price of crude, brent specifically, the market follows the direction. With the likes of BHI NOV down 6% today, HAL 8%, DVN 5%, the markets future moves are dire. Rails, another important economic harbinger, were derailed, pun intended today. CSX NSC both down 8%, UNP 6%. Bank stocks withdrew substantial gains today, with MS down 9%, JPM 6%, GS 5%. One of the last arguments that recession naysayers have been shouting was no recession ever occurred with a positive yield curve. Well the Fed took care of that today with Operation Twist. The SDS rose more than 6% today, and the VXX 5%. "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?", the famous quote uttered by Keynes, the famous British economist, applies to todays action. It is prudent to keep position sizes small, and err on the side of bearishness. Perhaps you can take a shot and buy an NEM near 66.50, after its recent all time high. Defensive breakouts can be bought as these stocks retreat back to the exact buy point. They include WPI 68.74, in its cup with handle breakout. COST 83.55 , in its double bottom buy point. Just a contrarian point of view. BBBY was up 2% after hours on an earnings beat. Thursday NKE TIBX report after the close and FDX before the bell.

Stocks near 200 day support are AEM 67.25, AN 33.75, EBAY 31, M 25.75, JWN 45, ABV 30.15, PM 65, EP 17.95, ARBA 29.60, INTC 21.45. CVX BAX GILD all found 200 day support today. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are DSW 43.50, HFC 29. Stocks that lost 200 day support were TGT IFF CHK MTZ ACN ADP VIAB PX VPHM. SWN can be bought with a buy stop of 40.25, as it takes out 200 day resistance. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were SINA SWN VMW MCO CBS NDAQ HS.

Stocks near 50 day support are KO 68.55, MCD 87.10, ARMH 27, ARCO 24.65, CHD 41.95, FE 43.15. TIF IBM IT ADI KLAC all found 50 day support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 50 day support and their sell stop spots are PAAS 31.50, LULU 56. Stocks that lost 50 day support today were IPI COH CROX NKE ANF ANN DSW M EP SM RIG WYNN USB QCOM ADP PX AET WCN IP JBL NVLS. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are BIDU 145, ANN 24. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were ALTR LRCX TXN GNC ACN NLSN PAYX MCK DHR WAT CMI DE GOOG RAX PM TPX CVI CXO EXPE.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE. We sold SDS for a decent profit today, but not quite enough.

Tuesday Recap

Indexes surrendered a large portions of intra day gains Tuesday in higher volume. Blame it on whatever you like, media outlets attributed the lower move late in the day to disappointment over the Greek debacle. As a market technician we simply saw the move on the SDS move back to 200 day support. Will we be right? Who knows, but as traders we did the right thing. It was the hard trade, for we have recently seen many leading stocks break out (V broke out Tuesday from a 90.93 cup base), we have seen the Nazz reclaim its 50 day MA, and we have seen bearish investment advisers outnumber bullish advisers for the first time in over a year. All bullish traits indeed, but they came on lackluster volume at best. Tuesday many leaders saw intra day negative reversals. They included CMG LULU VFC DPZ GMCR COG LVS PCLN WYNN just to name a few. Even more bearish are outside reversal day and they occurred with FCX BIDU SINA. MCP gapped down 22% on a downgrade. There are some valid bases still developing now, and they are from the more defensive arena. Cup with handles in precious metal sectors are BVN 49.55, SLW 41.46. ADS 101.61 in a cup base pattern. As always demand volume to be at least 50% above the daily average volume to confirm the move. Keep an eye on stocks that show strong relative strength, especially on a poor tape and Tuesday that was displayed by ALXN JAZZ WPI CERN. ORCL ADBE were both up overnight on earnings and Wednesday brings reports from BBBY after the close. BBBY has been attempting to take out a 60.65 cup base buy point, which it did intra day Friday only to close back below it by the close.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are PAAS 34.65, DEO 78.90, SWN 40.25, MCK 78.80, IP 28.50. APC retook its 200 day MA Tuesday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are DAR 15.40, K 53.85, HOG 38.50. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Tuesday were DEO FTI PENN QCOM NDAQ MCK. Stocks near 200 day support are CVS 35.40, TGT 51.65, HFC 29.10, ACN 53.75. Stocks that received 200 day support Tuesday were AEM CHK ADP. Stocks that lost 200 day support Tuesday were DAR MON SINA WNR VMW HS.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CVX 100.50, XOM 76.25. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Tuesday were GG DKS PX BAX DHR. Stocks near 50 day support are COH 58, M 26.95, HLF 56, QCOM 52, IBM 172, JBL 17.05. ABV JBL CMI all received 50 day support Tuesday.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CROX 27, ANN 23.80, KLAC 37.80, NVLS 29.15. MOS lost its 50 day MA Tuesday. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are RAX 37.50, XRT 49.65, DSW 48, TPX 61.50, HS 38.30, ALTR 38.10. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Tuesday were AGCO AGU GOOG AN WSM CHK COP EXPE MTZ CRM VMW ACN PAYX FMC PPG QCOR KSU NSC UPS ALTR LRCX TXN XLNX.

Good luck.

The authot owns SDS CBOE. We sold our TGT for a small profit, and were stopped out of our MXIM at a small loss.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Monday Recap

Markets lost ground Monday, but managed to recoup about half of their losses. The Nazz outperformed as usual today, recovering almost 50 handles from its intraday lows. It also managed to close above its 50 day MA it retook Friday. The S&P 500 closed lower by almost 1%. Volume was much lower than Fridays boosted option expiration day. A look under the hood today actually yielded some positive points. Breakouts from leading stocks continued with AAPL breaking out from a 404.60 cup base buy point. WPI took out a 68.74 cup with handle buy point. CMG broke out as well today. The indexes seem to be climbing that proverbial wall of worry. Among leaders that performed really nicely were LULU and SBUX both up 5%. WFM and WYNN were both up over 4%. A diverse group of stocks hit all time highs on a poor tape as well. They were ALXN AAPL NEM COST. However the SDS held its 200 day MA it hit on Friday. ORCL reports after the close tomorrow among the companies we follow.

Stocks at exact buy points include: Cup bases are AVGO 39.55, CPHD 41.08, ADS 101.61, FAST 36.90, LULU 64.59, IACI 43.90, VFC 131.40. Cup with handle is SLW 41.46, double bottom with handle is CVS 37.56 and double bottom is LTD 41.25.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are DHR 46.50, ACN 56, XOM 76.25, CVX 100.60, DSW 48.70, MCP 55.50. Stocks near 50 day support are KO 68.50, M 26.95, NCD 87.05, COG 71, AET 39.80, JBL 17.05. Stocks that found 50 day support today were PAAS COH CROX LULU ANF ANN CVS CMG SCSS ABV ADS IFF TPX SM RIG PCLN WYNN CMCSA IBM VPHM WCN JBL CMI ARMH KLAC NVLS XLNX.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are ANN 26.30, APC 76.25, SWN 40.30, QCOM 54.20, CRM 137.50, IP 28.50. Stocks near 200 day support are EBAY 31, CHK 30.50, MTZ 18.75, TSU 25.75, CBS 23.90. Stocks that found 200 day support today were AEM TGT CHK ARBA VMW ACN ADP VIAB GILD NSC MXIM. IT retook its 200 day MA today while POT KSU lost their 200 day MAs. CDE met 200 day resistance and CBI can be shorted at 36, its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are WSM 34, EXPE 29.50, TDC 53, QCOR 28.90, EXPD 45.50, HON 49.10. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were DKS AN WSM TDC HS DHR ALTR GNC. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are MOS 67.70, TPX 61.30. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were AGU PM EXPE BAX KSU NSC LRCX.

Good luck.

The author owns MXIM CBOE TGT. We bought TGT as it found 200 day support after bursting through it Friday.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets capped off a perfect 5 for 5 week Friday. Indexes had their best week in quite some time. The Nazz led the way once again with a 6.3% weekly gain, retaking its 50 day MA in the process. It is now down just 1.2% for the year. The S&P 500 gained 5.4% for the week. Volume was up huge, because of options expiration. Given the sharp gains this week, is it the start of something new, or are the violent moves, classic in bear market rallies), misleading? A look at leading stocks can help. Friday 3 more leaders broke out. AMZN surged, taking out a 227.55 cup base buy point, while hitting an all time high. COST broke out of a 83.55 double bottom base, and TJX also hit an all time high taking out a 56.88 flat base buy point. A key to the markets health will be watching how these leaders perform post breakout. Strong sectors this week included healthcare with UNH gaining 11%, AET, HUM 10%. Retail leaders CROX, DECK advanced 12% on the week, UA 17%. Tech giants EBAY gained 18% this week, CRM 11%, ACN 10%. Semis flourished this week with AVGO UP 13%, KLAC 11%. The ETF SDS is right back at 200 day support here. It has been a pretty reliable indicator since it broke thru that prior line of resistance on 8/04. Bearish advisers are now outnumbering bullish advisers for the first time in over a year. The US dollar ETF UUP is having difficulty with 200 day resistance here. A sign of future commodity strength? As always let the indexes, volume and leading stocks guide your decisions. One last note that makes you go hmmmm... GR was up 7% at the close, blasting through its 50 and 200 day MAs on no news. After hours it was up even bigger on takeover rumors. Someone knew something intraday. Earnings reports will continue to be slow until AA kicks off the traditional season October 12th.

Stocks near exact buy points (which for the lack of stocks near valid base buy points we have not done in awhile) are: Cup bases are NKE 94.33, VFC 131.40, IACI 43.90, BBBY 60.65, FAST 36.90, V 90.93, SM 85.65, AAPL 404.60, CHKP 61.56, AVGO 39.55, CLH 59.45. Double bottom bases are K 56.49, ROST 81.82, LTD 41.25, NDAQ 26.42, MXIM 26.33. Double bottom with handle bases are AGU 90.27, CVS 37.56, PCLN 549.43, VPHM 20.38. Cup with handle bases are BVN 49.55, DPZ 28.55, SLW 41.46. Cup with high handle is ABX 56.05, and HSY 59.55 in a flat base.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are MCP 55.30, K 54.25, DSW 48.60, PAG 19.75, DEO 78.90, COG 71.80, CVX 100.60, XOM 76.40, PXD 83.25, TDC 53.50, APKT 54, ACN 56, PPG 79.75, TXN 28.35. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were RAX ANF CXO ORCL IBM BAX KSU NSC. Stocks near 50 day support are DE 77, COH 58, CROX 27.20, BIDU 145, RAX 38, LULU 56.30, M 27, MCD 87, ABV 32, PM 68.75, HLF 56, TPX 61.90, CHK 31.50, SM 76, RIG 57.10, WYNN 149.50, CMCSA 22.25, BAX 56, WPI 66.10, NSC 69.80, WCN 32.80, JBL 17.25, ARMH 27.05. Stocks that received 50 day support Friday were AGCO DE SLW BIDU CMG CVI CHK EP EXPE WYNN MTZ PX GILD JBL LRCX NVLS.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AGU 88.25, MOS 73, APC 76.25, SWN 40.25, QCOM 54.25, CRM 137.50, MCO 33.50, IP 28.60. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs Friday were IFF ARBA ACN ADP CBS TGT. Stocks near 200 day support are DAR 15.30, TGT 52, IFF 59.30, NCR 18, ACN 54, ADP 50.30, CBS 23.95, PX 99, GSK 40.60, MXIM 25.05. Stocks that received 200 day support Friday were AEM PX NDAQ MXIM. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ANN 26.05, HOG 38.40, CE 45.50, CBI 36.10. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were AGU MCP FTI PENN CRM MCO CNI SMTC XLNX. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are MON 68.75, POT 55.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are BG 65.20, AG 22.05, HES 63, GNC 23. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were GG DKS WSM VMW PAYX EXPD B DHR WAT ALTR. CMG can be shorted under 311.50, as it loses its 50 day MA. AN HS GNC all lost 50 day support Friday.

Good luck.

The author is long CBOE MXIM.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets acted well, gaining for the 4th consecutive day. The S&P 500 outperformed the Nazz, a rarity these days with a 1.7% gain compared to a 1.3%. The Nazz did manage to close above the 2600 level, an area of recent resistance. It did stop its advance right at 50 day MA, however. Volume once again was soft. A couple of more stocks broke out today with MA WFM taking out buy points on decent volume. Stocks that hit ALL time highs today were MA ALXN CL HSY. A slew of other stocks are setting up legitimate bases and exact buy points. A bullish picture is being painted in that regard. Valid bases are HSY 59.55, TJX 56.78 in flat bases. Cup bases include IACI 43.90, SM 85.65, CHKP 61.56, CLH 59.45, AAPL 404.60, V 90.93, FAST 36.90, BBBY 60.65. Double bottom bases are COST 83.55, LTD 41.25, ROST 81.82, EP 21.28, NDAQ 26.42, ARMH 31.08, MXIM 26.33. CVS 37.56 in a double bottom with handle and DPZ 28.55 in a 3 week tight pattern. Markets did again react positively to some bearish economic news Thursday. Could we be putting in a bottom here? Time will tell and so far this week the Nazz is up almost 6%, the S&P 500 5%. The last couple of Fridays have been very weak with traders not wanting to take weekend risk. The Nazz is certainly being helped by the recent strength in the semis and the SMH did reclaim its 50 day MA today. After hours RIMM was much lower, and NFLX was hit intraday.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy spot spots are RAX 38.40, DSW 48.75, WSM 34.25, DEO 79.10, PM 69, CVX 100.60, ORCL 29.20, VIAB 47.15, BAX 56.35, GILD 40.10, EXPD 46, KSU 54.90, NSC 70.30, GDI 78.30, B 23, CBI 36.50, DHR 46.80, ALTR 38.90. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were COH M TJX CMCSA VMW PX HS VPHM IP CRS CMI. Stocks near 50 day support are COH 58.25, M 27, MCD 87, HLF 56, TPX 62, RRC 61, MTZ 20, AET 40, HS 39.50, WCN 32.80, CREE 32, KLAC 38.05. Stocks that received 50 day support today were AGCO
DE NKE BIDU AN CMG JWN AXP TPX CHK EXPE MTZ QCOM AET CPHD JBL BRCM LRCX NVLS.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AGU 88, TGT 51.95, IFF 59.55, FTI 44.30, QCOM 54, ARBA 29.80, ACN 54.15, ADP 50.80, CBS 24.15, SMTC 24.65, XLNX 32.45. EBAY NCR NDAQ B all retook their 40 week MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are GR 88.15, HOG 38.45, MCO 33.10, CE 45.60. AGU CVX PENN all met 40 week resistance today. DAR can be shorted under 15.10, as it loses 200 day support. Stocks near 200 day support include GG 48.25, EBAY 31, NCR 18. Stocks that found 40 week support today were SLW AEM WNR TDC VPHM MXIM.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are ANF 68, STJ 44.90. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were MON DKS APC COG WYNN KSU UPS ALTR. AN can be shorted under 37.50, if it loses its 50 day support.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE MXIM. Will add to MXIM if it takes out its double bottom buy point of 26.33 in healthy volume.

Wednesday Stock Reflections

Markets saw some seesawing action Wednesday. Starting higher, losing ground around an hour into the session, then rallying furiously, until giving back a big chunk of gains in the last half hour. As usual the Nazz led the way with a 1.6% gain on good volume. The caveat was that it hit resistance around the 2600 level which has been a problem recently. It is nearing its 50 day MA near 2620. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% on average volume. Some stocks in this run up have reached impressive ALL time highs. They include RL CERN DLTR AZO. More and more leading stocks are setting up valid bases. Cup bases and their exact buy points include AMZN 227.55, V 90.93, BBBY 60.65, FAST 36.90, PCP 171.53, AAPL 404.60. Double bottom base are COST 83.55, ARMH 31.08, MXIM 26.33. Double bottom with handles are CVS 37.56, VPHM 20.38. 3 week tight patterns are DPZ 28.55, SBUX 39.49. And AN 41.65 in a cup with high handle pattern. Bearish advisers now outnumber bullish advisers for the first time in over a year. Perhaps there is too much negativity flowing around. Yesterday certainly had the feel of a short squeeze. More bullish behavior was exhibited by some old leaders. RIG, the focus of some bad news, regarding its responsibility with the Gulf spill last year, actually rallied retaking its 50 day MA Wednesday. Bad news, bullish action is a plus.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are MCP 55.25, COH 58.75, CROX 27.50, DSW 48.55, M 27.25, JWN 46.80, TJX 54.25, EL 99.50, COG 71.25, ORCL 29.25, PX 100.15, BAX 56.40, GILD 40.10, HS 40.15, KSU 54.80, CRS 51.90, CMI 96.25. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs Wednesday were AGCO NKE BIDU ANN CMG SCSS SBUX ADS TPX TIF RIG MTZ CHKP JBL ADI KLAC LRCX. Stocks near 50 day support are SLW 38, HSY 57, LULU 57, LTD 37, TIF 73, TPX 62, SM 76, AET 40, UNH 47.95, ADI 33.80. Stocks that found 50 day support Wednesday were KO LULU ABV EXPE PCLN CPHD HUM.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are EBAY 31.25, TGT 52.10, PLCM 25.15, QCOM 54.05, CBS 24, VIAB 46.10, SMTC 24.55, XLNX 32.50. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs Wednesday were IPI MON COH M TDC BAX NSC. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are RAX 38, IFF 59.30, SWN 40, MCO 33, CBI 36. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Wednesday were RAX TGT CVX PENN QCOM VIAB PX GILD KSU. Stocks near 200 day support are B 22, CHK 30.25. Stocks that found 200 day support Wednesday were CDE WNR IBM TSU GSK HS VPHM.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are ANF 68, WSM 34, CVI 26, VLO 23, TDC 53.50, STJ 45. Stocks that met 10 week resistance Wednesday were CROX DKS MCD CMCSA ARBA VMW ADP UPS CMI NVLS XLNX. GG WYNN both lost 50 day support Wednesday.

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE PM. We sold WNR yesterday for a small loss as it lost its 200 day MA.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets finished near highs for the second consecutive day, however volume tapered off compared to yesterdays levels. The Nazz has continued its out performance leading the way with a 1.5% gain compared to the S&P 500s .9% advance. Although stronger volume would give the recent strength some credence, leading stocks are behaving better. More stocks are setting up valid buy points, and are coming from more diverse sectors besides defensive ones. DPZ 28.55 in a 3 week tight pattern, ROST 77.78 in a double bottom with handle buy point and BVN 49.55 in a cup with handle base. V is also setting up a 90.93 cup base buy point. ATHN gained almost 9% today after last weeks breakout. GMCR broke out earlier today from a 111.52 cup base but closed below that mark by the end of the day. Looked much like MA did last Thursday, after breaking out, and closing below the actual buy point. Sectors that demonstrated solid relative strength today were transports, health care and retail. Retail gains were all the more impressive since the consumer accounts for 2/3s of GDP growth. Names such as VFC DECK COH LULU all rose more than 3% each today.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are DAR 16.50, DE 78.15, MCP 55.75, NKE 87, BIDU 145.50, ANN 24.50, JWN 46.50, SCSS 16, TIF 73.45, HLF 56.45, TPX 62.30, COG 71.20, EP 19.35, SM 76, RIG 57.80, MTZ 20.25, QCOM 52.85, ORCL 29.25, IRM 32.60, JBL 17.60, ADI 34.15, KLAC 38.35, NVLS 30.30, SMTC 23.25, XLNX 31.95. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were HSY UA LULU FAST LTD PETM ABV MHP AET CPHD HUM MCHP. Stocks near 10 week support are SLW 38, KO 68.30, AET 40, ARMH 27.10, AVGO 33.05. Stocks that found 50 day support today were GG AN EXPE PCLN WYNN AMT GNC.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are MOS 73, COH 57.40, TGT 52.15, IBM 164, KSU 53.60, B 22.15, MXIM 25.15. VMW HS both retook their 200 day MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are RAX 38, EBAY 31, GR 88.20, PLCM 25, TDC 50.25, NSC 67.95, CBI 36. Stocks that met 40 week resistance today were MCP M IBM. Stocks that found 40 week support today were FOSL AXP EL WNR TSU. CHKP can be bought at 51.30, its 200 day MA. SWI lost 40 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AGCO 44, CROX 27.20, ANF 68, DKS 35.40, MCD 87, TJX 54.05, WSM 34, VLO 23, CMCSA 22.50, ARBA 29.15, STJ 45. Stocks that found 50 day resistance today were POT BIDU CMG SBUX TIF ADS TPX CHK HFC MTZ UNH WPI BRCM. CVI lost 50 day support today.

Good luck.

The author owns WNR CBOE PM.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Monday Recap

Markets rebounded smartly off their lows Monday as rumors swirled of China mulling some possible purchases of Italian bonds. Volume did not back up the move unfortunately. Both the Nazz and the S&P 500 finished well off their lows and rallied into the close to finish strongly upon their highs. Bullish behavior for sure. Even some more leaders are flashing valid buy pints. GMCR 111.52 in a cup base. ROST 77.78, RAI 37.98, both double bottom with handles formations. Some more merger activity has to be viewed as bullish as BRCM put a bid on NETL. Lots of due diligence is done on these transactions, so when corporations decide to swallow competitors it is a good thing. As we alluded to yesterday bears are becoming bountiful recently. As well everyone knows of Greeces eventual default. Bonds their are pricing in near certainty of the fact. Earnings continue to be quiet.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are HSY 57.15, BIDU 145.50, LULU 56.80, FAST 32.20, JWN 46.50, ADS 92.75, COG 71.25, EP 19.30, SM 76, CPHD 34.35, CREE 32.25, MCHP 33.20, SMTC 23.25. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were DECK WYNN AVGO MXIM CLH. Stocks near 50 day support are IACI 38.05, CVI 26, CLH 52.75. Stocks that found 10 week support Monday were MOS SLW KO RL SWI AMZN COST RAI MA V EQT RRC AAPL CERN WCN ARMH GNC.

Stocks near 200 day support are MTZ 18.50, TSU 25.55, CHKP 51. Stocks that found 40 week support Monday were POT AEM CDE UA DSW FAST TIF PM CHK OKE AMT CHKP MHP AET UNH CRS. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are COH 57, EBAY 31, TDC 50.25, B 22. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Monday were NKE VMW. EL can be shorted with a sell stop at 92, as it loses it 200 day MA. DAR MCP both lost their 40 week MAs today. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are M 25.85, HS 37.50.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are ANN 24.25, MCD 87, SCSS 15.95, MHP 41.05. LTD PETM both met 50 day resistance Monday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are DPZ 25.90, GNC 22.75. AGU AG ABV QCOR all surrendered 10 week support Monday.

Good luck.

The author owns WNR CBOE PM. We bought some PM as it found 200 day support Monday.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets fell hard for the second straight Friday as investors fear what the weekends may potentially bring. The Nazz fell 2.4% on slightly higher volume. For the week the loss looked tame, at 0.5%. It is now down 7% on the year and its 14.5% off its 52 week high. The S&P 500 lost 1.7% on stronger volume Friday. It gave back 1.7% on the week and rests 15.8% off its 52 week high. The fact that both indexes closed near their lows for the day Friday was unnerving. Leading stocks always a healthy gauge for market vitality were soft this week. Some are setting legitimate buy points. They include SWI 25.72 buy point in a cup with handle base and CVS 38.92 in a double bottom pattern. However in the absence of many stocks forming sound bases, we are left with seeing how stocks respond to their long term MAs, such as the 10 and 40 week. AAPL, the 800 lb. tech gorilla which makes up 8% of the Nasdaqs composition, is finding support at its 10 week line. COG, an energy stalwart, lost almost 6% Friday but managed to find tenuous support at its 10 week line as well. They need to hold that support, for as the leaders go, so goes the market. IBM surrendered 40 week support Friday, a bearish sign. It has only done that once this year on 8/19 and was able to quickly regain it 2 days later. It better do so in rapid fashion once again. HLF gave up 6%, MCD 4%, Friday both piercing 10 week support in the process. LULU lost its 10 week line on an earnings report Friday, but managed to close near its high for the day, somewhat bullish. Even alcohol and tobacco got hit Friday with BUD ABV both down 3%, and PM down a big 4%, as it nears a 40 week test Monday. Some things to be positive about, albeit barely, was some semis managed to escape the carnage on Friday, on the back of TXN news. Bull/bear surveys are starting to lean to the extreme negative side, which can be construed as bullish. Some stocks such as the defensive names also took a hit which could be taken as a positive. HSY lost its 10 week, while UN K both gave up 40 week support. Perhaps some of the money will be rotated back into some growth names. Thats a big if. Tread carefully out there.

Stocks near 200 day support include DAR 15.15, AEM 68, CDE 27.55, MCP here, DECK 85.50, UA 66, COST 76, FAST 31.75, ROST 72, SCSS 13.15, SBUX 35.50, TJX 50.45, TIF 66.75, PM 64.55, TPX 54, CHK 30.05, EP 17.60, OKE 65, AMT 51.70, MTZ 18.50, GSK 40.55, CRS 46. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were MCP UA ANF DSW FOSL AXP CBOE CHK AET VPHM. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are AXP 46.80, EL 92.25, CHKP 51.10, AET 37.50, UNH 44.75, AVGO 31.70. Stocks that lost 40 week support Friday were K UN NKE GPC M JWN PENN IBM MHP BAX HS GDI B. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ATW 41.75, TDC 50.25, BAX 54.25, CBI 36. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were PETM SOHU VMW.

Stocks near 50 day support are MOS 68, SLW 37.70, AG 27.05, KO 68.20, GIS 37, IACI 38.05, SWI 23.30, AMZN 207.50, AN 37.75, CVS 35.65, COST 78, DLTR 68, DPZ 26.05, WFM 62.75, RAI 36.10, MA 316, CVI 26, EQT 57, RRC 60.50, CERN 62.10, JAZZ 28, QCOR 28.50, WCN 32.55, AKRX 7.55. Stocks that can be bought as they reatke their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are LULU 57.30, CLH 52.75, MXIM 23.50. TSCO retook its 50 day MA Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AGCO 44, CROX 27.10, ANN 24.40, LTD 37.05, VLO 23, IRM 32.50, CPHD 34, AVGO 33.10, MCHP 33. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were LTD VLO NLSN AVGO. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are RL 131.50, BBBY 55.75, ABV 32, V 85.70, COG 69, PCLN 515.50. Stocks that lost 50 day support Friday were BIDU SBUX PCP FTI HFC EXPE WYNN MTZ SOHU CPHD WPI BRCM CREE.

Good luck. Go JETS. Pray for the 9/11 victims and families.

The author owns WNR CBOE.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets fell Thursday, after Bernanke failed to give the markets anything bullish, and before Obamas speech tonight. Again much attention has been made about tonights address, however it is all nonsense. The markets whether it is European concerns, domestic debt problems, etc. the market always is looking ahead. Just pay attention to the markets volume and price action. Today indexes sank and finished near their lows, on increased volume, a bearish sign. MA attempted a rare breakout today from a flat base with a 340.52 flat base buy point, but failed. Others are still setting up valid bases. They include cup base ABX at 55.84, COST 83.55 in a double bottom base, DPZ 28.53 in a cup with handle base and VPHM 20.38 in a double bottom with handle pattern. The dollar ETF UUP gained again today and is bracing for a 200 day test around 21.90. If it can break through their could spell trouble for energy and commodity sectors. Keeping an eye of stocks that demonstrated solid relative strength on a weak tape today were LULU HANS CMG TSCO DPZ EBAY GMCR CHK ATHN ARMH. Also always keep an eye on recent IPOs as a potential source of future winners. Today some that outperformed were ARCO GNC NLSN. Earnings again are quiet Friday.

Stocks near 50 day support are MCP 56.25, HSY 57, IACI 38.05, SWI 23.30, SINA 105, BBBY 56.20, MCD 86.75, SBUX 38.50, V 86, HLF 56.25, COG 70, FTI 43, HFC 35.30, EXPE 29.40, MTZ 20, CPHD 34.10, QCRO 28.50, WCN 32.50. Stocks that found 50 day support today were BIDU TGT PM PCP AXP CHK SM WYNN SOHU BRCM CREE. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are NLSN 29.45, CLH 53, AVGO 33.60. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were MCP DECK TSCO ARMH.

Stocks near 200 day support are UN 31.55, JWN 44.75, CHKP 51, IBM 163, GSK 40.55. Stocks that found 200 day support today were AGU ANF M B GDI. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are COH 57, ACOM 35, RAX 37.90, EBAY 31, COV 50.75. Stocks that met 200 day resistance were DEO GR ATW ACN CBS CBI. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day support and their sell stop spots are ANF 62.45, PENN 37.05, VMW 89.70, BAX 54.10. Stocks that lost 200 day support today were TDC VIAB COV.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AGCO 44.25, BG 66, MON 69.10, SCCO 32.95, CROX 27.20, ANN 24.50, DSW 49, PETM 42.95, SCSS 16, TJX 54, TAP 43.95, EL 100, APC 75, RIG 58, UNH 48.10, XLNX. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were numerous and include DAR SCCO NKE CROX CMG FAST JWN ROST ADS CVX CXO GPOR EP VLO WNR QCOM IRM MHP AET GILD MCK STJ UNH CLH B MCHP MXIM. Both DE HUM lost their 50 day MAs today.

Good luck.

The author owns WNR CBOE. We slashed our position in WNR today as it was repelled by 50 day resistance.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Wednesday Stock Reflections

Markets rebounded robustly Wednesday, unfortunately volume did not accompany the move. Both the Nazz and S&P 500 rallied nearly 3%. Small cap outperformed today gaining 4%. Leading stocks lagged, but some are setting up legitimate buy points. They include RAI 38.74, MTZ 22.48, CXO 99.57, all in double bottom bases. MA 340.52 in a flat base pattern. DAR 17.27 in a double bottom with handle pattern. VPHM 20.38 also in a double bottom with handle pattern, but the handle needs one more day to complete. We had welcoming takeover news with BHP announcing its affection for WLT. Both the potential acquirer and acquiree advanced, a positive sign. It was a broad rally today with almost all sectors leaping higher. Steel and transports led the way. Banks advanced, enjoying a rare rally, akin to a days reprieve for an incarcerated criminal allowed a field trip on a beautiful day. Tomorrow they will probably return back to their dark, dank reality of hard labor. Will the rally of the last 2 days (almost 500 Dow points from Tuesdays low) finish at some point tomorrow. Looks like 50 day support on the SDS ETF will have a say near 22.50. Earnings reports are quiet Thursday, but we have the Obama speech tomorrow evening which should hay a say for sure on Fridays direction.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AGCO 44.40, BG 66.30, MCP 56.50, CROX 27.35, LULU 57.40, FAST 33.45, JWN 46.30, ROST 76, GR 90.50, ADS 93.45, EL 100.60, CXO 89.50, GPOR 30.25, EP 19.45, AET 40.70, XRAY 36.15, GILD 40.30, HS 40.50, UNH 48.60, CLH 53, B 23.25, CRS 52.30, AVG 33.60, CREE 32.45, MCHP 33.45, MXIM 23.45. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were DE HSY K UN DECK RL UA VFC BIDU SINA GPC LTD SBUX PM PCP AXP HLF CHK HFC SM WYNN TSU CPHD COV HUM VPHM WPI BRCM. Stocks near 50 day support are AG 22, HSY 56.95, DPZ 26.05, SBUX 38.45, V 86, CHK 31.35, SM 76, EXPE 29.35.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are FTI 44.30, SOHU 80, CBS 23.85, CNI 72.75, KSU 53.60, NSC 68, CBI 36.40. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs today were AGU K NKE M CVX PENN TDC VMW VIAB BAX COV HS GDI. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are COH 57, ACOM 35, RAX 37.90, ANF 68.20, EBAY 31, PAG 19.30, TGT 52, APC 75.75, PLCM 25, CE 45.10, PX 99.10. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were GR FTI FRX IP. Stocks near 200 day support are BGS 17, CBOE 25.25, CHKP 51.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are MON 71, NKE 87.30, ANN 24.60, DSW 49, DKS 35.75, PETM 43, SCSS 16, TJX 54, TIF 73.75, TSCO 64, CVX 101, RIG 58, QCOM 53, JBL 17.75. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were CROX CMG JWN ADS IRM NLSN MHP STJ CLH ARMH MXIM.

Good luck.

The author owns WNR CBOE. We bought CBOE today as it reclaimed its 200 day MA as discussed in yesterdays commentary.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets fell following the holiday weekend, but put together a decent late day rally to minimize losses. The Nazz outperformed losing .2%, but climbing 60 handles off its lows of the day. The S&P 500 lost .7%, rallying 25 handles off its bottom of the day. Volume was higher compared to Fridays soft levels. Of course the stocks that demonstrated the best relative strength were the leaders. Stocks such as HANS IACI ORLY WFM EXPE AAPL ATHN ALXN all were in the black nicely by the end of the day. Even in this volatile environment selective trades are still there to be made. Since virtually no stocks are producing valid buy points in any type of base (cup with handle, flat base, double bottom), we have instead focused on the moving averages. Today, stocks such as AN DPZ RAI MA CVI QCOR PLCN all found 50 day support to the penny. Stocks that found almost exact 200 day support today were DAR SINA LTD ROST TSCO EL TPX CHK EP CHKP IBM . So do your homework and be ready when the trade presents itself to you. One stock that seems to be a rarity, and in the process of developing a proper buy point in a double bottom with handle base is COST. Remember though the handle must be 5 days in duration. So it needs 3 more days to be considered legitimate. Gold reversed today, possibly giving the markets some ammunition to fight higher in the short term. Earnings announcements for Wednesday are quiet.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are BIDU 145, SINA 105, ADS 93, HLF 56.50, CHK 31.50, HFC 35.40, WNR 18.30, WYNN 150, CPHD 34.30, VPHM 18.60, CLH 52.75. Stocks near 50 day support are AG 21.95, MCD 86.60, ABV 32.05, MTZ 20. Stocks that found 50 day support today were MOS POT IACI AMZN COG EQT RRC AAPL CERN WCN.

Stocks near 200 day support are AEM 68, CDE 27.40, UN 31.55. Stocks that found 200 day support today were BGS UA DSW PCP AXP AMT MHP AET CRS. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AGU 87.75, MOS 73, CBOE 25.30, TDC 50.25, AVGO 31.90. IPI retook its 40 week MA today. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ACOM 35, RAX 37.70, ANF 62.25, EBAY 31, PETM 41.90, TJX 50.25, SOHU 79, VMW 90, CBS 23.55. TDC ARMH both met 40 week resistance today. K lost its 40 week MA today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day MA resistance are AGCO 44.25, DE 78, SCCO 32.95, CROX 27.20, DECK 90, LULU 56.50, CMG 314, SCSS 16, SBUX 38.50, TAP 44, SM 75, VLO 23.05, IRM 32.75, COV 50.95, STJ 45.25. SUN WYNN WPI IP all met 10 week resistance today. GIS LOGI TSU BRCM all surrendered 10 week support Tuesday.

Good luck.

The author owns WNR. We sold DE for a small loss today as it lost its 50 day MA today. That was the reason behind the purchase. Discipline.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets imploded Friday, the day before a 3 day holiday weekend on a dismal job number. Both the Nazz and the S&P 500 closed lower by 2.5% on decreased volume, traditional in front of an extended weekend. For the week both indexes were basically UNCH, but the way the ended was ominous indeed. Both indexes also remain just over 14% lower from their 52 week highs. One note was leading stocks, as measured by the IBD 50, outperformed gaining 1.2% for the week. Among leading stocks in need of mention are ARCO, (a recent IPO of Latin American Mcdonald franchises), which retreated right back to its 26.58 cup with high handle buy point, and then sprinted back to finish upon its highs for the day. AGU, from the leading ag sector is in the process of completing a valid double bottom buy point of 93.59. Flight to safety seemed to be the name of the game as gold rallied 4% this week, and bonds rallied. Potentially upsetting for the commodity markets is the dollar sitting right up upon its 50 day MA, using the UUP ETF. A break above that line could spell pain. Banks were hit hard Friday as the Fed announcing lawsuits with some of the biggest banks concerning the Fannie and Freddie losses in the mortgage arena. MS was down 6%, GS, JPM both lower by 4.5%. FDX, a global barometer of economic strength, continues to forecast weakness to technicians was down 4% Friday. Retailers took big hits Friday as CROX PVH were lower by 6%, COH 4%. Regarding possible buys in that sector, could TIF be one? It jumped 6% on strong earnings and beautiful guidance 8/26. It nearing a 200 day test with support at 66.40. However, JOYG reported a sweet number 8/31 and also forecast strong guidance going further, but it was repelled by 200 day resistance that day and has lost 10% since that day. As always be a selective stock picker, with great discipline, looking for good opportunities. On a political note, anyone looking for a possible positive surprise Thursday from this long awaited Obama speech, I feel will be disappointed. I hope I am wrong in my judgement, but policies concerning pro business/job creation will be inconsequential, since the administration already announced that unemployment will be above the 9% threshold through the 2012 election year. Earnings announcements for Tuesday are ALTR PAY reporting after the bell.

Stocks near 50 day support include IPI 31.50, KO 68, GIS 37, UN 32.50, IACI 38, AN 37.45, COST 78, DPZ 26, DEO 79.45, RAI 36.10, CBOE 23.60, MA 313, CHK 31.15, EQT 56.05, RRC 59.90, DISCA 39.75, AAPL 370, LOGI 10.05, TSU 28.85, CERN 62, QCOR 28, WCN 32.45. Stocks that found 50 day support on a horrid tape Friday were DE MOS POT FMX IACI SWI BBBY COST GPC TGT DEO CVI CAM OII EXPE MTZ CPHD MRX VPHM BRCM. Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MA and their buy stop spots are MCP 56.75, HLF 56.50. NLSN retook its 50 day MA Friday.

Stocks near 200 day support are DAR 15.10, AEM 68, CDE 27.35, BGS 16.95, UA 65.95, SINA 96, CVS 35.10, FAST 31.60, ROST 72, TJX 50.20, TIF 66.40, EL 92.50, TPX 53.20, WNR 15.10, LVS 44.20, PENN 37.30, CHKP 51, IBM 162.50, MHP 39.05, AET 37.90, GSK 40.55, UNH 44.60. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were MCP K DECK DSW FOSL LKQX ARMH SPRD. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ACOM 35, ANF 62.25, DRI 48.50, EBAY 31, JWN 44.70, PETM 41.80, GR 88.20, ATW 41.60, CVX 99, TDC 50, VMW 90, ACN 53.25, CE 45, PX 99, KSU 53.10, B 21.95. AGU encountered 200 day resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are LTD 34.75, COV 50.25, HS 36.25. Stocks that lost 200 day support Friday were MON NKE ANF M JWN DISCA TDC VMW CBS VIAB CE BAX GILD MCK NVS CNI GDI B AVGO.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AGCO 44.40, SCSS 16, SFLY 53.75, SBUX 38.45, BUD 55.80, TAP 44, ADS 92.40, HFC 35, VLO 23.05, ADP 50.55, HUM 76.25, STJ 45.20, WPI 66.60, PLL 51, CREE 32, MCHP 33.40, MXIM 23.30. MCP AXP HLF all met 10 week resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are HSY 56.80, RL 131, VFC 111.20, BBBY 55.75, TGT 49.40, CAM 48.80, INTU 46.75. Stocks that lost 50 day support Friday were SCCO BIDU SINA LKQX PM PCP FTI OKE SM WYNN TD SOHU MHP WPI CLH.

Good luck.

The author owns DE WNR.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets turned tail Thursday, after showing some early strength, finishing upon their lows before the big employment report tomorrow morning. Bearish action indeed. The Nazz was lower by 1.3%, the S&P 500 1.2%. One bright spot was volume was well below average. The Nazz seems to be losing the 2600 resistance battle. That level proved to be support in both mid March and mid June this year. It attempted to break above this number both Wednesday and today, and did so intraday but could not manage to hold on by the close. Leading stocks were quiet Thursday. Some are in the process of building the right side of their bases and showing constructive action. Only problem is that they hail from defensive groups. They include NEM BVN SLW CHL. Some are providing valid buy points, a rarity for a few months here. Double bottom buy points, still in the works are seen in DAR 18.82, COST 83.55, EP 21.28. ABX is forming a cup with handle pattern with a 52.88 buy point. We believe we are still in a bear market rally, since we flagged the SDS roaring through its 200 day MA on 8/04, and proceeded to run up smartly from there. Guess what its right back at both 50 and 200 day support right now. Could the downtrend be ready to assert itself here? Who knows. The market has been down for the last 3 consecutive employment reports so perhaps thats in the cards. As always pay attention to the indexes, leading stocks and volume. Both IBM LULU met 50 day resistance today. We should still be in for a bumpy ride according to the VXX, a fear gauge. That ETF flew through its 200 day MA on 8/06, and gapped higher on 8/18. It is now consolidating tightly after the bullish gap up. Usually a signal the the upward trend will resume. Not much on the earnings front tomorrow.

Stocks near 50 day support are DE 78.10, POT 56.30, SCCO 32.85, KO 68, GIS 37, HANS 80, HSY 56.95, IACI 38, SWI 23.45, BBBY 56.20, COST 78, DPZ 26, TGT 49.60, DEO 79.35, PM 68.50, AXP 49.10, SM 75, EXPE 29.15, AAPL 370, LOGI 10.05, MTZ 20, TSU 28.75, CPHD 34, COV 51, MRX 37.15, VPHM 18.45, CLH 52.15, BRCM 34. Stocks that received 50 day support today were AGU CROX BIDU SINA CVS HLF OKE NLSN GSK HUM WPI. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are EL 100.75, EP 19.60, NVS 59.50.

Stocks near 200 day support are IPI 33.25, AEM 68, SLW 37.05, ABX 49.15, CDE 27.20, MCP 53, BGS 16.90, DECK 85, NKE 84.30, FAST 31.55, M 25.55, ROST 72, DISCA 41.05, LVS 44.25, PENN 37.20, CHKP 51, VMW 90, CBS 23.50, VIAB 45.50, CE 45, HS 36.50, GDI 76, ARMH 26.10. Stocks that found 200 day support today were MON CAM SOHU GILD B. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CBOE 25.40, CPX 30.60. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs today were SPRD TD. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are RAX 37.80, EAT 23.50, DRI 48.50, IFF 59, HAL 45.80, HP 59, SWM 40, SGY 27.50, WMB 28.25, ARBA 29, FTNT 20.60, BDX 82.95, XRAY 36, XLNX 32.05. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were AGU COH DRI EBAY TGT INTU PX HSIC STJ NSC CBI BWA. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ANF 61.75, TDC 49.75, AVGO 31.30. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were ACOM PETM GR HOG ACN KSU.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are BG 66.25, UA 71, GOOG 550, LULU 56.40, ANN 24.80, LTD 37.20, JWN 46, PETM 43.10, TIF 74, TSCO 64, TAP 49, RDSA 68.75, RIG 58.40, VLO 23.20, WFC 26.55, CMCSA 23, VRSN 31.75, BAX 57, IP 28, JBL 17.95. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were AGCO DKS SCSS ATW CVX CXO NBL SUN ADP IRM AET GILD NVS UNH CNI PLL CREE MXIM. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were CMG LTD ROST SBUX TJX ADS HFC.

Good luck.

The author owns WNR DE. We bought DE Monday as it retook its 50 day MA.