Saturday, September 17, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets capped off a perfect 5 for 5 week Friday. Indexes had their best week in quite some time. The Nazz led the way once again with a 6.3% weekly gain, retaking its 50 day MA in the process. It is now down just 1.2% for the year. The S&P 500 gained 5.4% for the week. Volume was up huge, because of options expiration. Given the sharp gains this week, is it the start of something new, or are the violent moves, classic in bear market rallies), misleading? A look at leading stocks can help. Friday 3 more leaders broke out. AMZN surged, taking out a 227.55 cup base buy point, while hitting an all time high. COST broke out of a 83.55 double bottom base, and TJX also hit an all time high taking out a 56.88 flat base buy point. A key to the markets health will be watching how these leaders perform post breakout. Strong sectors this week included healthcare with UNH gaining 11%, AET, HUM 10%. Retail leaders CROX, DECK advanced 12% on the week, UA 17%. Tech giants EBAY gained 18% this week, CRM 11%, ACN 10%. Semis flourished this week with AVGO UP 13%, KLAC 11%. The ETF SDS is right back at 200 day support here. It has been a pretty reliable indicator since it broke thru that prior line of resistance on 8/04. Bearish advisers are now outnumbering bullish advisers for the first time in over a year. The US dollar ETF UUP is having difficulty with 200 day resistance here. A sign of future commodity strength? As always let the indexes, volume and leading stocks guide your decisions. One last note that makes you go hmmmm... GR was up 7% at the close, blasting through its 50 and 200 day MAs on no news. After hours it was up even bigger on takeover rumors. Someone knew something intraday. Earnings reports will continue to be slow until AA kicks off the traditional season October 12th.

Stocks near exact buy points (which for the lack of stocks near valid base buy points we have not done in awhile) are: Cup bases are NKE 94.33, VFC 131.40, IACI 43.90, BBBY 60.65, FAST 36.90, V 90.93, SM 85.65, AAPL 404.60, CHKP 61.56, AVGO 39.55, CLH 59.45. Double bottom bases are K 56.49, ROST 81.82, LTD 41.25, NDAQ 26.42, MXIM 26.33. Double bottom with handle bases are AGU 90.27, CVS 37.56, PCLN 549.43, VPHM 20.38. Cup with handle bases are BVN 49.55, DPZ 28.55, SLW 41.46. Cup with high handle is ABX 56.05, and HSY 59.55 in a flat base.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are MCP 55.30, K 54.25, DSW 48.60, PAG 19.75, DEO 78.90, COG 71.80, CVX 100.60, XOM 76.40, PXD 83.25, TDC 53.50, APKT 54, ACN 56, PPG 79.75, TXN 28.35. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were RAX ANF CXO ORCL IBM BAX KSU NSC. Stocks near 50 day support are DE 77, COH 58, CROX 27.20, BIDU 145, RAX 38, LULU 56.30, M 27, MCD 87, ABV 32, PM 68.75, HLF 56, TPX 61.90, CHK 31.50, SM 76, RIG 57.10, WYNN 149.50, CMCSA 22.25, BAX 56, WPI 66.10, NSC 69.80, WCN 32.80, JBL 17.25, ARMH 27.05. Stocks that received 50 day support Friday were AGCO DE SLW BIDU CMG CVI CHK EP EXPE WYNN MTZ PX GILD JBL LRCX NVLS.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are AGU 88.25, MOS 73, APC 76.25, SWN 40.25, QCOM 54.25, CRM 137.50, MCO 33.50, IP 28.60. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs Friday were IFF ARBA ACN ADP CBS TGT. Stocks near 200 day support are DAR 15.30, TGT 52, IFF 59.30, NCR 18, ACN 54, ADP 50.30, CBS 23.95, PX 99, GSK 40.60, MXIM 25.05. Stocks that received 200 day support Friday were AEM PX NDAQ MXIM. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ANN 26.05, HOG 38.40, CE 45.50, CBI 36.10. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were AGU MCP FTI PENN CRM MCO CNI SMTC XLNX. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are MON 68.75, POT 55.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are BG 65.20, AG 22.05, HES 63, GNC 23. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were GG DKS WSM VMW PAYX EXPD B DHR WAT ALTR. CMG can be shorted under 311.50, as it loses its 50 day MA. AN HS GNC all lost 50 day support Friday.

Good luck.

The author is long CBOE MXIM.


  1. Whoa, that's ALOT of data!


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