Monday, September 5, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets imploded Friday, the day before a 3 day holiday weekend on a dismal job number. Both the Nazz and the S&P 500 closed lower by 2.5% on decreased volume, traditional in front of an extended weekend. For the week both indexes were basically UNCH, but the way the ended was ominous indeed. Both indexes also remain just over 14% lower from their 52 week highs. One note was leading stocks, as measured by the IBD 50, outperformed gaining 1.2% for the week. Among leading stocks in need of mention are ARCO, (a recent IPO of Latin American Mcdonald franchises), which retreated right back to its 26.58 cup with high handle buy point, and then sprinted back to finish upon its highs for the day. AGU, from the leading ag sector is in the process of completing a valid double bottom buy point of 93.59. Flight to safety seemed to be the name of the game as gold rallied 4% this week, and bonds rallied. Potentially upsetting for the commodity markets is the dollar sitting right up upon its 50 day MA, using the UUP ETF. A break above that line could spell pain. Banks were hit hard Friday as the Fed announcing lawsuits with some of the biggest banks concerning the Fannie and Freddie losses in the mortgage arena. MS was down 6%, GS, JPM both lower by 4.5%. FDX, a global barometer of economic strength, continues to forecast weakness to technicians was down 4% Friday. Retailers took big hits Friday as CROX PVH were lower by 6%, COH 4%. Regarding possible buys in that sector, could TIF be one? It jumped 6% on strong earnings and beautiful guidance 8/26. It nearing a 200 day test with support at 66.40. However, JOYG reported a sweet number 8/31 and also forecast strong guidance going further, but it was repelled by 200 day resistance that day and has lost 10% since that day. As always be a selective stock picker, with great discipline, looking for good opportunities. On a political note, anyone looking for a possible positive surprise Thursday from this long awaited Obama speech, I feel will be disappointed. I hope I am wrong in my judgement, but policies concerning pro business/job creation will be inconsequential, since the administration already announced that unemployment will be above the 9% threshold through the 2012 election year. Earnings announcements for Tuesday are ALTR PAY reporting after the bell.

Stocks near 50 day support include IPI 31.50, KO 68, GIS 37, UN 32.50, IACI 38, AN 37.45, COST 78, DPZ 26, DEO 79.45, RAI 36.10, CBOE 23.60, MA 313, CHK 31.15, EQT 56.05, RRC 59.90, DISCA 39.75, AAPL 370, LOGI 10.05, TSU 28.85, CERN 62, QCOR 28, WCN 32.45. Stocks that found 50 day support on a horrid tape Friday were DE MOS POT FMX IACI SWI BBBY COST GPC TGT DEO CVI CAM OII EXPE MTZ CPHD MRX VPHM BRCM. Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MA and their buy stop spots are MCP 56.75, HLF 56.50. NLSN retook its 50 day MA Friday.

Stocks near 200 day support are DAR 15.10, AEM 68, CDE 27.35, BGS 16.95, UA 65.95, SINA 96, CVS 35.10, FAST 31.60, ROST 72, TJX 50.20, TIF 66.40, EL 92.50, TPX 53.20, WNR 15.10, LVS 44.20, PENN 37.30, CHKP 51, IBM 162.50, MHP 39.05, AET 37.90, GSK 40.55, UNH 44.60. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were MCP K DECK DSW FOSL LKQX ARMH SPRD. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ACOM 35, ANF 62.25, DRI 48.50, EBAY 31, JWN 44.70, PETM 41.80, GR 88.20, ATW 41.60, CVX 99, TDC 50, VMW 90, ACN 53.25, CE 45, PX 99, KSU 53.10, B 21.95. AGU encountered 200 day resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are LTD 34.75, COV 50.25, HS 36.25. Stocks that lost 200 day support Friday were MON NKE ANF M JWN DISCA TDC VMW CBS VIAB CE BAX GILD MCK NVS CNI GDI B AVGO.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AGCO 44.40, SCSS 16, SFLY 53.75, SBUX 38.45, BUD 55.80, TAP 44, ADS 92.40, HFC 35, VLO 23.05, ADP 50.55, HUM 76.25, STJ 45.20, WPI 66.60, PLL 51, CREE 32, MCHP 33.40, MXIM 23.30. MCP AXP HLF all met 10 week resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are HSY 56.80, RL 131, VFC 111.20, BBBY 55.75, TGT 49.40, CAM 48.80, INTU 46.75. Stocks that lost 50 day support Friday were SCCO BIDU SINA LKQX PM PCP FTI OKE SM WYNN TD SOHU MHP WPI CLH.

Good luck.

The author owns DE WNR.

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