Monday, January 31, 2011

Monday Monday

Markets rebounded meekly Monday, as Mondays have been now for some time a strong day, but did so in very weak volume. That suggests big institutional money was mostly on the sidelines today. As on Friday, most of the days winners were energy related. The indexes were boosted by some merger news as ANR was looking to acquire MEE. This follows WLT buyout of Western Coal in early December as coal is a hot commodity. INTC being halted early in the session did little to derail the Nasdaq. Earnings reports tomorrow include CMI ADM EMR UPS before the open and BRCM CHRW after the close. Tomorrow morning we get reports of December auto sales, construction spending and ISM Manufacturing Index.

Stocks near specific buy points but do so with caution, are MDR @21.13 in a flat base. TSO @19.84 in a cup with high handle. AMP @62.84 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. Cup with handles include BK @32.60, USB @27.78, OXY @99.67, RIG @83.32, MS @30.35, WFC @33.09.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are VRSN 33, AXL 13.30, ALTR 37, ADI 37.80, AVGO 27.70, MXIM 24.50, GSM 17.80, MTL 29.25, RS 50.50, A 40.25, ITW 52.50, JOYG 84.50, AAPL 329, OPEN 74, AGCO 50, AGU 86.25, LULU 66, COST 71, PETM 39.50, WFMI 50, NDAQ 23.50, PAYX 31, ADSK 39, REE 12, BLL 69, TXN 33, JBL 19, BBBY here, DOW 34.25, KKR 14.25, TROW 64, ADP 47.25. Stocks that can be bought if they reclaim their 50 day MAs are DRI thru 48, PX thru 93.75, CPX thru 29, PM thru 58.25. Stocks that found excellent 50 day support today were TCK EBAY ROVI UNP TEL JNPR CE SIGM SOA INFA. NBL CXO both continued their strong behavior after finding solid 50 day support on Friday.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are MRVL 18.10, OVTI 24, GFI 15, HPQ 44, LOGI 17, ARUN 19, AKAM 46, ANN 21, YUM 45.10, WYN 26.50, BUD 54.95, INFY 65, NSC 59, NTRS 50.50, SAPE 11.50, AEM 67.80, FDX 86, BBT 26.40, RIMM 56. Stocks that found support at their 200 day MAs were PBR PVH TAP MCD.

ETN a recent, new member to the "par stars" group rose 4% today. Looks like DVN NBL are poised to become next members sometime soon.

Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are JCI 39, MSCC 23.50, TKR 48, JRCC 23.30, COH 55.25, RL 110, SQM 54.50, AAP 65, SBUX 32.50, HOT 60.50, OMC 46, CA 24.50, PMTC 23, CHRW 78, UPS 72, SCCO 46. Stocks that can be shorted as they pierce their 50 day are TEN under 40.50, EL under 80, CCL under 44.25, STT under 46. BWA found resistance a its 50 day MA today.

Good luck.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Stocks took a beating on Friday as disappointing earnings and unrest in Egypt ensued. F AMZN CVX all disheartened investors. Action among leading stocks was real worrisome and an explosion in volume cast a real negative feeling over the market. The SOX, one of the shining sectors of this rally, sank almost 3% Friday. Its biggest loss since August. It was hard to find any winning groups Friday, as breadth was horrible, but oil and gold related securities were among the few standouts. Sentiment indicators are at extreme levels which really makes this feel like it could possibly be more than just a shallow correction coming our way. As always though let the markets price and volume action dictate your moves. Another big week for earnings awaits us with BIDU EMN KLAC XOM reporting Monday.

Not much to offer on stocks with specific buy points. VRSN responded well to earnings Friday and is shaping a cup base buy point of 34.64. CRUS can be bought if it retreats to its 19.17 double bottom with handle buy point. However I will be looking to sell strength and short until the market can show me some muscle to the upside.

In corrections leading stocks like to consolidate and try and find support at their 50 day MA. Stocks nearing their 50 day MA are AXL 13.25, MGA 54, TRW 55, ALTR 37, ADI 37.70, ATML 12.40, AVGO 27.50, FCS 15.80, IRF 30, MXIM 24.50, MCHP 35.20, SIGM 13.60, SWKS 29, TEN 33, AXTI 9.80, GSM 17.60, GTI 20, MTL 29, RS 50.25, X 55, A 40, AVT 33.10, CAT 92, CBE 58, ITW 52.15, JOYG 84.50, ANR 56, APC 72, BP 45, CAM 50, CNQ 42, BAC 13.10, MDR 19.80, PBR 35, SLB 82, SU 37, TCK 57.50, TSO 18, WLT 121, WFT 22, AA 15.10, CLF 79, AAPL 328, EMC 23, OPEN 73.50, PLCM 40, AGCO here, AGU 86.50, NOC 65.50, LULU 65, COST 71, EBAY 29.50, PETM 39.50, ROST 64, WAG 38.25, WFMI 50, DD 49, LYB 33, PPG 82, SOA here, AMP 57.50, BX 14.40, FISV 59.50, NDAQ 23.25, AMTD 19, PAYX 31, DHI 12, FLR 65, KBR 30, CIS 23, ADSK 39, INFA 44, ORCL 30.50, ROVI 60, SNPS 26.50, CSX 65.50, UNP here, BK 30, USB 26, ETN 101.50, REE 12, BLL 68.50. NBL found good 50 day support on the oil rise related to Egypt. CXO showed excellent relative strength as it found support at its 50 day line and ramped higher. A domestic oil and gas producer with almost all of their drilling onshore in Texas. A safe haven from the middle east oil craziness. How about a change in energy policy Mr. President.

Other stocks showing good relative strength Friday were BHI DVN HAL HES MEE NOV PTEN CLR SU WLL MOS KKR. Gap ups that transpired this week and which demonstrated excellent relative strength as well Friday on a horrendous tape were UA SWK HP NFLX TER.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are MRVL 18, OVTI 24, SLAB 33, MUR 61, PUDA 10, SWN 37, GFI 15, NKE 78, PVH 57.50, HPQ 44, LOGI 17, TEVA 53, LLL 75, RTN 48.25, ARUN 18.50, AKAM 46, ANN 21, DRI 44.50, DLTR 47.40, GES 40, JWN 38, YUM 45.10, PX 87, MAR 36, WYN 26.50, BUD here, TAP 46, ABV 24.25, INFY 64.50, SAPE 11.45, RHT 37.50, NSC 59, NTRS 50.60. BAC can be bought thru 14, its 200 day MA. BBD bounced nicely off the 200 day Friday. AEM ABX both finished decently higher after finding support at the 200 day. Group mate NEM which lost its 200 day recently finished lower on the day. You breach the 200 day and look out below. It is survival of the fittest in equity world too.

Stocks looking weak and which lost their 50 day MAs today were ALV BWA CMI F JCI PCAR BRCM LRCX MSCC SCHN OXY BHP RIO VALE NTAP SQM AMZN SBUX HOT CTSH PMTC CHRW FDX ALB UPS. Stocks which can be shorted as they find resistance at their 50 day MA are ALV 79.35, MSCC 23.20, WAT 78, JRCC 23.30, NFX 70.25, SPN 34.25, COH 55.60, DECK 79.50, AAP 66, HOT 60, INTU 47.75, PMTC 23, VMW 89, UPS 72, SCCO 46. Stocks that can be shorted as they pierce thru their 50 day MAs are LLTC under 34.15, TKR under 48, PH under 85, TDC under 42.40, GOOG under 600, EL under 79.50, PCLN under 417, RCL under 45, ADP under 47, BMC under 46.50, STT under 46. TROW had an outside reversal day Friday.

Portfolio flat. BTU lost its 50 day, and IBN lost its 200 day. Those MAs were the catalyst for getting in and therefore for getting out. Discipline.

Good luck.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Mid Day Thoughts

Was in and out of F for a small loss. Out of BTU IBN. Stocks both under their 50 day and 200 day respectively.

Pre Market

Will be buying F this morning on weakness toward the 50 day. A move we have discussed repeatedly.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

After Hours

Markets finished near their highs for the day, with the tech ladened Nasdaq outperforming once again. Volume came in below Wednesdays elevated levels. Commodity related groups took a beatdown today as oil, copper, gold prices were lower. Internet related stocks such as NFLX PCLN AMZN were among the strongest groups (AMZN was down big after reporting earnings after the close). Chips and auto related sectors were hot today as well. F reports tomorrow morning and consumer sentiment and GDP come out tomorrow morning.

Stocks near specific buy points include BWA with a flat base buy point of 74.36. Cup with handles are PCAR 58.85, ATU 28.35. BBBY has a 51.05 cup with high handle buy point. CRUS had an enormous breakout at 19.17 from a double bottom with handle buy point. Its 19% move was assisted by a short squeeze most definitely.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs include ADI 37.80, LLTC 34.25, LRCX 50, SIGM 13.50, MT 36, GSM 17.75, A 40, JBL 18.50, JOYG 84.50, PH 85.50, CXO 86.20, APC 71.50, BP 45, COP 66, CNX 47, MEE 53, NBL 84, OXY 94.50, CLR 58, SLB 82, SU 37, TCK 57.50, WLT 120, WLL 115, RIO 69, VALE 34.30, ICON 19.80, JNPR 36.25, TDC 42.75, AGCO 50, AGU 86.50, RAX 31, EL 80, RCII 30, WFMI 50, CE 40.20, DD 49, HUN 16, SOA 23.10, CCL 44.50, HOT 60, KKR 14, CTSH 72, ADSK 39, BMC 47, CHRW here, UNP 94, UPS 72, PNC 60, USB 26, ALB 56. Stocks that found 50 day support post earnings that we spoke about yesterday were SBUX TKR JNS DHR. ALTR did the same Wednesday. PTEN had a nice day today after reclaiming its 50 day MA yesterday. BTU found 50 day support today after reclaiming that line Wednesday.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are BBT 26.50, PBR AEM ABX here, OVTI 24, AKAM 46, ANN 21, DRI 44.50, MCD 73.50, TGT 54.25, BUD 54.50, TAP 46, IBN 44.50. WHR is slowly breaking away from its 200 day MA with a 3% move upward today. BAC can be bought at 14, when it reclaims its 200 day.

Gap ups which are very bullish action and that are still intact are ROK BHI LULU EMN IBM SWK TER GLW.

Stocks that lost their 50 day today and looking weak were APA MUR. LOGI had a negative outside reversal. VMW SCCO INFA all found 50 day resistance today. Stocks that can be shorted as they move toward their 50 day MAs are SLB 46, JRCC 23.25, NFX 70.25, ARUN 23, AAP 66, FL 19, MAR 41, WYN 30, ABV 29, CA 24.40.

Good luck.

The author owns IBN BTU.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Wednesday Recap

Markets all closed in the green today, however the Nasdaq outperformed big time. The Nazz finished up 0.7%, and the S&P 500 finished up 0.4%. More importantly the S&P 500 closed at its highest level since September 2008. Volume rose today to give conviction to the move. Strength in the IPO market also validate the days healthy move. NLSN DMD both were received very well today. Steel, energy related names, autos, chips were among the days big winners. Restaurants and solar underperformed. After the close both NFLX QCOM impressed while SBUX was down as I write. Tomorrow expect earnings from CAT CRUS ETN KSU LLL NUE POT before the open and AMZN KLAC MSFT RVBD after the close. Economic reports include jobless claims, durable goods and pending home sales.

As the markets demonstrate muscle more stocks are looking better near buy points. CRUS has a 19.17 buy point in a double bottom with handle buy point. It has earnings before the open. MSCC which also reports early tomorrow has a 25.06 flat base buy point. Other flat base patterns are MDR 21.13, RIO 73.10, COST 73.55, DD 50.64, TIBX 22.18. Cup with handles include PLL 51.26, SU 39.79, RIG 83.32, LEN 20.80. COP broke out of a 69.09 flat base buy point today and HAL broke out of a cup with handle at 41.83.

A recent trend that I see developing recently is the move in certain stocks that reported earnings and found strong 50 day support the day of the announcement. And after the support moved higher in a big way. Today HES OXY did it. On 1/20 FCS SWKS TEL PH UNP TPX did the same. If we can be fortunate to capture some early weakness tomorrow morning after reports from CAT ETN CY lets try and buy some at the 50 day if the support holds. CAT 92, ETN 101, CY 18.10 are the corresponding 50 day MAs. As we write SBUX is trading down at its 50 day MA in the after hours near 32.20. If that holds tomorrow could be a good entry point.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are ADI 37.50, BRCM 44.75, IRF 29.90, MRVL here, SIGM 13.75, SPRD 18, TXN 33, GSM 17.50, MTL 28.50, A 40, VSH 15, ANR 56, APA 118, BP 44.50, NBL 84, VALE 34.25, AGCO 49, EBAY 29.50, EL 80, WFMI 50, CE 40, DOW 34, HOT 60, KKR 14, NDAQ 23.25, AMTD 19, STT 46.25, CTSH 72, ADP 47, FOE 15, ADSK 38.25, BMC 47, PMTC 23, ROVI 60, FDX 92.50, UPS 72, PNC 59, ALB 56, REE 12. Stocks that bounced off their 50 day MA today were CLR, WLT, WLL, WFT, AGU, LULU, CHRW, RIMM. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MA are FCX thru 112, LOGI thru 19.60, SQM thru 54.55, BUD thru 58.25, INTU thru 48.20. ALV reclaimed its 50 day today. It can be bought at 79 if it retreats and holds there. PTEN is back above its 50 day today too. Buy at 21 if it retreats there as well.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are OVTI 24, WHR 87, PVH 57.50, LLL 75, AKAM 46, ANN 21, LTD 27.50, MCD 73.50, BBT 26.50, BBD 18.40, IBN 44.50. PBR is right at 200 day support here. Looking better everyday now that it seems to be holding that line. SWN same scenario. Both AEM ABX found solid support at 200 day MA and rallied today.

Stocks showing weakness that lost their 50 day MAs today are MIPS SLAB CA NSC. WAT found 50 day resistance today. Stocks that can be shorted as they rise toward their 50 day MAs are JRCC 23.25, NFX 70.30, COH 55.75, RVBD 36, ARUN 22.50, AAP 66, AMZN 180, MAR 41, ABV 29, EXPD 54.30, SCCO 46.

Portfolio changes today include long BTU @62 as it reclaimed its 50 day MA.

Good luck.

The author owns IBN BTU.

Mid Day Thoughts

Both OXY HES rebounded right off their 50 day MAs after earnings this morning. HAL breaking out here from its 41.83 cup with handle buy point on strong volume.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets showed decent strength into the close Tuesday. After starting the day lower, then rallying foolishly on a consumer sentiment number, then falling again before rallying into the close. That is bullish action indeed. Volume ticked up to give more credence to the move. Of course it might have been anticipation of some pro capital, free markets chatter tonight before the State of the Union Address. Commodity stocks were hit hard today, while defense companies once again exhibited muscle. In late trade JNPR is up and ALTR is down modestly. Before the open tomorrow energy giants such as COP HES OXY will report and after the close NFLX QCOM SBUX will deliver their earnings. Economic reports Wednesday include new home sales and Fed interest rate policy decision.

Stocks near specific buy points are HAL 41.83, RIG 83.32 both cup with handles. BBBY 51.05 in a cup with high handle pattern.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are AXL 13, F 17, GNTX 28, MGA 53, TRW 53.50, ALTR 36.25, ADI 37.25, CY 18.25, SIGM 13.50, SPRD 18, TXN 33, MT 36, MTL 28.25, A 40, DHR 46, JBL 18.25, VSH 15, CAT 91, APC 71, BP 44.50, COP 65.50, HES 75, NOV 65, NBL 84, OXY 94, SLB 81.50, SU 36.60, SUN 40, TCK 57, CLF 77, VALE 34, TDC 42.25, AGCO 49, MOS 72.50, LULU 65, EL 79.50, PETM 39.25, WFMI 49.75, CCL 44.25, HOT 60, KKR 14, AMTD 19, CTSH 72, ADSK 38.50, BMC 47, PMTC 23, ROVI 60, TIBX 20.25, UPS 72, REE 12, PNC 59, USB 26, JDSU 14.40, ALB 56, ETN 100.25. Stocks that found 50 day support today include CAVM AVGO MSCC SLAB RS JOYG PLL CXO CAM ESV MEE CLR TSO WLT WFT ICON AGU IPI CE DD SOA PCLN FOE SNPS CHRW NSC. Stocks that can be bought as they try to reclaim their 50 day MAs are PM thru 58.40, BUD thru 58, LOGI thru 19.60, PTEN thru 21.50, BTU thru 62, DRI thru 48.25. Demand heavy volume. OPEN found strong support at the 50 day today. GOOG is up 20 bucks since finding 50 day support yesterday. On the downside JKS took it on the chin today.

Stocks neat their 200 day MA are OVTI 24, PBR 36, PUDA 10, SWN 37, AEM here, ABX here, GFI 15, PVH 57, ARUN 18.25, AKAM 46, FFIV 99, GES 40, LTD 27.50, ORLY 53, BID 35.50, WSM 30.25, YUM 45, SAPE 11.50, RHT 37, CRM 110, VMW 77. ANN found 200 day support today. PAAS had a positive upside reversal today off the 200 day. EGO had a big volume upside reversal today as well. Will probably now challenge the 200 day MA on the upside. LO had the positive big volume reversal Monday and now looks primed to challenge its 200 day on the upside as well. BAC lost its 200 day today. Next stop 50 day support at 13?

Looking for relative strength today I noticed ACN which is at an all time high. SBUX continues to plod ahead. Earnings after the close tomorrow for SBUX.

Stocks showing weakness include ZION which had an outside reversal today. Stocks that lost their 50 day today are SPN TC GS NTAP. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were ACI JWN KSU CNQ INFY. Stocks that can be shorted as they hit their 50 day MA on the upside include COH 55.50, DECK 78.25, UA 56, JNPR 36, NTAP 54.70, SQM 54, AAP 66, AMZN 180, FL 19, FOSL 71, PNRA 102, MAR 41, INFA 43.75, INTU 48, EXPD 54.25. Stocks that can be shorted as they fall below their 50 day MA are UNP under 92, WLL under 112.50, BWA under 67, JCI under 38, BRCM under 44, LLTC under 34, PH under 85, MDR under 19.20.

Portfolio changes today were buying IBN. Closed on its highs after an interest rate increase in India overnight and after finding repeated 200 day support recently.

Good luck.

The author owns IBN.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Monday Monday

Markets showed decent strength Monday, as Monday continues to show solid gains traditionally now for quite some time. Techs led the way with a 1% gain, trying to recover some of last weeks big losses. AAPL GOOG both found support at their respective 50 day MAs. However volume receded from Fridays levels, albeit Friday was an options expiration day. The days sector winners included solar and semis, while banks lagged. Techs that are down following after hours on earnings include TXN VMW. CSX is up. Tuesday brings earnings from BTU COH MMM DD X before the opening and Obama delivers his State of the Union Address tomorrow evening.

Stocks near buy points include ATU 28.25, LEN 20.80, RIG 83.32 all cup with handles. (RIG needs one more day for a proper handle to form). COP 69.09 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. WFC 34.35 in a cup base. Again I am waiting for a big up volume day before I begin buying in earnest again. I believe a correction is near, although that is all I hear on TV and radio these days, which perhaps means we may not get one. MTL is closing in on its old 31.89 cup base buy point it cleared on 1/4. ADI back above its 38.70 flat base buy point it cleared on 1/14. ALTR back above its 38.24 flat base buy point as well which it cleared on 1/14.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are F 17, ALTR 36, AVGO 27.25, CY 18, MCHP 35, SIGM 13.50, SLAB 46, SWKS 28, SPRD 18, TXN 33, ATI 55, MT 36, RS 55, MT 36, RS 50, JBL 18.20, CAT 91, JOYG 83, CXO 85, BP 45, BHI 55, HES 75, NOV 65, OXY 94, CLR 58, SUN 40, SPN 34, TCK 57, WFT 21.80, AA 15, BHP 89, CLF 77, VALE 34, ICON 19.60, EMC 23, AGU 85, LULU 64, COST 70.25, SBUX 32.10, WFMI 49.75, CE 40, DOW 34, CCL 44.25, KKR 14, CTSH 71, KBR 30, SWK 64, BMC 47, CA 24.25, PMTC 23, ROVI 60, JBHT 40, NSC 62.75, UNP 93, USB 26, ALB 56, ETN 100.25, RIMM 60.25. Stocks that found 50 day support today were BWA JCI TEN BRCM IRF LLTC LRCX ST GTI VSH PLL PH ANR CAM ESV MEE MDR SLB SWN TSO WLT WLL TC AAPL OPEN GOOG RAX PSS SOA PCLN JNS SNPS CHRW. JKS continues to plow ahead after reclaimed its 50 day MA on 1/11. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MA are BBD thru 20.20, BUD thru 58, LOGI thru 19.55, WAT thru 79.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are OVTI 24, PBR 36, AEM 67, ABX 46, GFI 15, PAAS 30, LLL 75, RTN 47, ARUN 18.50, AKAM 46, FFIV 99, ANN 21, GES 40, LTD 27.50, MCD 73.75, WSM 30.25, VMW 77, BBT 26.60, PNC 58, NTRS 50.80, BAC here. URBN lost its 200 day MA today.

As I like to find relative strength it is also just as important to recognize relative weakness today. MRVL was a notable laggard today in a strong semi tape. Miners BHP CLF RIO all rallied and FCX finished upon its lows of the day after finding resistance at its 50 day MA.

Stocks that showed weakness and like FCX met resistance at their 50 day MA are CMI SCHN DOV UA SQM NFLX INFY. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were MIPS APKT RVBD AMZN. Stocks that can be shorted when and if they pierce their 50 day MA are IR under 45, CNQ under 41.50, MUR under 71, NTAP under 54. Stocks that can be shorted as they move upward and possibly meet 50 day resistance are ALV 79, BEXP 27, CPX 28.50, JRCC 23, NFX 70, PTEN 21, COH 55.50, JNPR 36, AAP 66, SCCO 46, WYN 30, ABV 29, INFA 43.75, FL 19, FOSL 71, MAR 41. Stocks that seem to have lost their uptrends include DECK CMG PNRA RHT.

Good luck.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets limply came back some on Friday. GE gave the Dow a small boost as the index finished up for 8 straight weeks now. The Nasdaq closed down 2.4% for the week and the S & P 500 fell just under 1%. Could a rotation be under way? The Dow is up 2.5% for the year now and the small cap S & P 600 is lower by 1.3%. Techs have been hurt as semis were among the weeks weak sectors. GOOG could not prevent the Nasdaq from its 3rd consecutive daily loss. AAPL had a rough day and markets in general Friday closed near the lows of the session. Not encouraging action. Next week a big batches of earnings will occur. NFLX AMZN VMW RVBD QCOM SBUX MCD TXN OXY CAT KSU report.

Stocks near buy points, and these are stocks which held up well during a tough week include: Flat bases are UPS 74.04, OXY 99.67, COST 73.55. Cup with handles are NYX 33.10, LEN 20.80. Cup base is MS 32.39. There are a limited amount since I feel a correction, a healthy one at that, is upon us. With that being said we must always be ready incase the uptrend resumes in the near future.

Stocks near their 50 day moving averages, which normally offer a stock a well needed rest after a nice uptrend and support in a correction, are BWA here, ETN 100, RIMM 60, F 17, GNTX 28, TEN 40.25, ALTR 36, AVGO 27, CY 18, MCHP 35, MIPS 15, SIGM 13.50, SWKS 28, SPRD 18, TXN 33, MTL 28.25, A 40, AVT 33, JBL 18, VSH 15, ATU 26, CAT 90, JOYG 83, PLL 48, CXO 85, BP 45, CVX 88, COP 65.25, HES 75, MUR 71, NOV 64.50, CLR 57.75, RRC 44.15, SLB 81, SPN 34, VLO 22, WLT 117, WFT 21.70, AA 14.80, CLF 77, TC 13.50, VALE 34, ICON 19.50, AAPL 322, EMC 22.90, NTAP 54.50, OPEN 72, TDC 52.25, AGCO 49, AGU 85, MOS 72, BBBY 47, LOW 24.10, SBUX 32, WFMI 49, CE 40, DOW 33.70, SOA 23, CCL 44.20, HOT 60, BX 14, JNS 12.15, KKR 14, NDAQ 23, CTSH 71, ADSK 38.25, BMC 46.80, CA 24.25, PMTC 23, ROVI 59.50, TIBX 20.10, CHRW here, FDX 92, JBHT 40, NSC 62.50, UNP 93, USB 26, STT 46, ALB 55.75. JKS now resting above its 50 day for a second straight week after it reclaimed it on 1/11. Oils rise is certainly helping the solar name. Stocks that can be bought as they attempt to reclaim their 50 day MAs are KMX thru 33.50, TAP thru 49.30. Super Bowl fever with a Coors light. Not for me. I like any IPA.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are BAC 14, AMP 56, ABV 24, BUD 54.25, WSM 30.20, MCD 73.30, LTD 27.50, GES 40, ANN 21, FFIV 100, AKAM 46, LLL 75, LOGI 17, PAAS 30, GFI 15, ABX 46, AEM 67, SWN 37, PUDA 10, PBR 36. HPQ has not looked back after reclaiming its 200 day MA on 1/6. It has defied the Nasdaq's weakness this week as it finished up everyday except for a measly .02 loss on Wednesday. BBT is freeing itself from its 200 day after being below that line since June 2010. Nice earnings helped. Stocks that have lost their 200 day which is bearish indeed are LO EGO PVH.

As cautious as I am right now some stocks that had a bullish gap are still holding up. Bullish behavior indeed. KLAC NVLS LULU EMN WAG WFMI should be watched closely.

Stocks showing weakness and which lost their 50 day MAs Friday are CMI DOV VRSN MSCC BEXP EXPD OVTI JRCC KSU SCHN AMZN PKI INFY. As this list of former leaders break below that line concern grows. GOOG had a bearish outside reversal day Friday. Stocks that hit their 50 day MAs and proved too much to overcome include NFX FL NFLX FCX FOSL LVS RIO PNRA MAR UA TIF OMC ANF YUM BBD PX SCCO. Stocks that can be shorted as they pierce their 50 day MAs on the downside are RDC under 33, LLTC under 34, WLL under 113, BIDU under 105. Stocks that can be shorted as they approach their 50 day MAs to challenge that line of support are ALV 78, PCAR 56, SCCO 46, ACI 32.25, JNPR 36, ARUN 23.

Good luck.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Thursday Charting

Markets for the second day fell hard but did manage to close off the lows. Techs, again for a second straight day, took the most severe blows. FFIV dsiappointment last night after hours led to a 21% loss today. GOOG is up almost 2% after hours now on a bullish forecast. Many leaders continued to lose more ground and perforate their 50 day MAs, usually a sign of support. Add the increasing volume on the downside and I feel content to be in cash right now. In hindsight last weeks strength in the defense stocks, (GD LLL LMT NOC RTN) could have been foreshadowing what became this correction look a like phase we experienced this week. Tomorrow earnings reports include BAC GE SLB.

Again as I am not looking for stock purchases currently I will only endorse the healthiest of stocks here for breakouts. ORCL is one after which closing higher yesterday in the midst of the Nasdaq's 1.5% loss, followed again with a strong move today in big volume and sits just below a 32.37 buy point in a flat base. Take note of relative strength. ACN is another example powering higher today on a weak tape and closing in on a 51.53 flat base buy point. Finally SBUX which closed in the black yesterday and again today (relative strength) is nearing a 33.52 flat base buy point as well. Some stocks that remain durable are ROK which had a great day and is still above a 72.85 3 weeks tight pattern it broke out from on 1/3. ADI is still above its 38.70 buy point in a flat base break out on 1/18. Add HPQ NBL on your relative strength performers.

Stocks 50 day MAs, which is where institutional investors step in to support an equity, are CMI 110.50, TEN 40.75, ALTR 36, MXIM 24, MCHP 35, SPRD 18.85, TXN 32.80, DHR 45.80, VSH 15, ATU 26, JOYG 83.70, PLL 48.25, COP 65, OXY 94, CLR 57, SPN 33.90, VALE 34, ICON 19.50, OPEN 72, AGCO 49, MON 65.80, LULU 63.75, AMZN 178.50, BBBY 47, SBUX 32, CE 40, DOW 33.60, SOA here, NDAQ 23, PMTC 22.80, TIBX 20.10, CHRW 77.40, FDX 92, STT 46, ALB 55.30. Stocks which found 50 day support today are BWA JCI AVGO BRCM IRF LLTC MSCC MIPS ST PH BEXP MEE MUR TSO NTAP AGU IPI MOS BIDU PCLN HOT. 3 to take note of today which bounced off 50 day support and motored to highs for the day on huge volume were UNP WLT TEL. Both UNP TEL halted their declines at 50 day support after releasing earnings today. Reminiscent of what occurred with AAPL after it earnings report last week.

Stocks near 200 day support are SWN 37, ABX 46, PVH 57.75, ANN 21, LTD 27.50, GES 40, BUD 54.70, BBT 26.50. Stocks which found 200 day support and then rallied off that line were BAC PBR AEM. I love technical analysis.

Stocks that look weak and pierced their 50 day MAS today (and these are leaders which is causing me concern) are CRM GS ALV PCAR DECK PLCM BID PKI DOV UA SQM DD ACI FTI XXIA ARUN MAR NFX BHP JNPR FFIV INFA FCX RIO NTGR RAX RHT. A broad mix of sector leaders were taken out and roughed up today. To give further evidence of why a breach of the 50 day MA is a cause for concern take a look at these stocks. They recently lost their 50 day and can not muster the strength to get back above that line. A change in trend if you will. They include COH KMX BBD WAT CMG NKE FL RL TIF YUM LOGI WYN PX. Stocks that can be shorted as they go below their 50 day lines now are IR under 44.50, RDC under 33, WLL under 113. URBN can be shorted if it falls below its 200 day MA at 34.50.

Good luck.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wednesday Thoughts

Markets took it on the chin Wednesday after a weak GS forecast led the banks lower and CREE took the semis lower as well. Semis and ags took the most damage and these two sectors were recent leading groups. Go under the hood a little further and the price and volume action today among leading stocks in general was dismal. Leading stocks are a good barometer of the health of a rally and todays action took me to the sidelines and into cash. I want to protect gains and preserve capital. I can always revisit and of course I am still bullish but with the amount of optimism I fear a near term and healthy correction. Earnings weeks are always volatile and that may be the case today and I could very well be wrong, but its just a feel. As well half my portfolio was reporting earnings tonite or sometime tomorrow. Earnings before tomorrows open are FCX JCI MS UNP. After the close are GOOG MXIM MSCC.

Stocks that did however show good relative strength today in techland amidst a horrible Nasdaq tape include BMC ORCL. BMC has a 49.21 flat base buy point and ORCL has a 32.37 flat base buy point as well. For both of those stocks to close in the black today deserve close attention.

Other stocks showing strong realtive strength today in a downbeat market include RTN CHK JKS NBL TIBX.

GOOG reversed today but still closed above its 630.95 cup base buy point it broke out from yesterday. NYX is developing a potential handle in a cup base with a buy point of 33.10. Handles need 5 days to form.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are ALV 78.25, BWA 67, F 17, LLTC 34, MCHP 23.25, MIPS 15, SCHN 61.50, DHR 45.75, ATU 26, MDR 19.40, SU 36.30, JNPR 36, RVBD 35, AGCO 49, SQM 54, ARUN 23, BIDU 105, AKAM 50, BBBY 47, COST 70, BID 44, DD 48.50, SOA 23, NDAQ 23, CHRW 77, EXPD 54, FDX 92, KSU 48.50, UPS 71.25.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are PBR 36, SWN 37, AEM 67, ABX 46, PVH 58, LMT 75.50, ANN 21, GES 40, LTD 27.50, WSM 30.25, BBT 26.70, BAC 14, ZION 22.50. LO another example of when a 200 day MA is violated to the downside it usually is not pretty.

Stocks showing weakness today include PTEN RL JWN RCII PX WYN BUD BBD which all were stopped at their 50 day MA. RHI FLR both had negative outside reversal days. TIF ABV going further below their 50 day. RDC can be shorted under 33 and FTI under 85.50, both their 50 day MAs.

Portfolio changes today were selling all longs. DE we bought at 79.78 on 12/8 as it broke out of a flat base. Sols told just above 90 for a $10 gain. KKR we bought at 13.85 on 12/21 as it broke out from a flat base. Sold today at 15.50. QCOM we bought at 50.41 as it broke out of a 4 week tight pattern on 1/4. Sold today at 52.50 for a $2 gain. JCI we bought at 40.25 on 1/5 as it broke out of a flat base and sold today for no gain or loss. NETL we bought at 34.45 on 1/6 as it broke out of a double bottom with handle pattern and sold today at 36. TRW we bought at 54.93 on 1/4 as it broke out of a 4 week tight pattern and sold today at 61 for a $6 gain. NSC we bought at 63.77 on 1/7 as it broke out of a flat base and sold today for a $1 gain. UNP we bought at 95.88 on 1/10 as it broke out from a flat base and sold today near 98. RAX we bought at 32.79 on 1/11 as it broke out of a flat base and sold today at 34. AMTD we bought at 20.68 as it broke out from a cup base on 1/13 and sold for no gain or loss today. FCX we bought at 118 and sold today for a $2 loss. SDS we sold for a small loss. All of my shorts were initiated because of breaks below the 50 day MA. EBAY we shorted at 29 on 12/21 and covered for no gain or loss. FOSL we shorted at 69.05 on 1/12 and covered today for a slight loss. PAAS we shorted at 38 on 1/12 and covered today at 36 for a $2 gain. ANF we shorted at 52 on 1/15 and covered today at 51 for a $1 gain.

Good luck.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Tuesday After Market

Markets Tuesday overcame some negative news cast upon it and responded with tenacity. C missing forecasts before the open and AAPL's Steve Jobs taking a medical leave of abscence could not derail the bull. Plus after the close AAPL delivered some strong results and the stock is trading basically where it closed near its highs for the day. IBM is trading higher after blowing past estimates, and CREE as we discussed last week when it traded uncharacteristically lower when the SOX was screaming higher, is getting crushed. Tomorrow before the open expect earnings from major banks such as GS BK WFC USB NTRS STT.

Stocks near specific buy points include. Flat bases are EXPD @57.25, CHRW @82.15, VRSN @34.64, SNPS @27.53, ORCL @32.37, UPS @74.04, INFA @46.45, SAPE @13.54, ACN @51.53, SBUX @33.52, BID @47.90, RIO @73.10, OXY @99.67, NFX @73.68, MDR @21.13, PLL @51.16. Cup with handles are GTI @21.21, ATU @28.35, HAL @41.83, NTRS @56.96. Cup bases are RS @55.57, UA @60.24, PAYX @32.92, LEN @21.89. 5 week tight bases are DHR @48.06, IR @47.91. Double bottom is CRUS @19.17.

Stocks that broke out today include. CAT @94.99 taking out a 4 week tight pattern. ALTR @38.70 taking out 38.70 flat base. NOC broke out of a cup with handle at 68.85. GOOG broke out of a flat base @630.95. As always I do not have to mention all previoulsy mentioned stocks broke out in heavy volume. PCLN is trading very tightly after breaking out from a flat base buy point of 428.20 on 1/5.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are PCAR 56, MSCC 23.10, SCHN 61, X 54, PKI 25, JRCC 23, MUR 71, PUDA here, RDC 33, DECK 77.50, SQM 54, DD 48.60, MAR 40.80, RHT 45.50. AVGO bounced off its 50 day MA Tuesday. JKS was up 8% Tuesday after recently reclaiming its 50 day MA. LOGI can be bought if it can break above 19.80, thru its 50 day MA.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are AEM 67, PVH 58, ANN 21, DRI 44.50, GES 40, LTD 27.50, TGT 54.25, IBN 44.50. ABX continued its rally after finding 200 day support Friday. BBT jumped above that line Friday as well. LLL LMT RTN are all now firmly ahead of their 200 day MA strengthened by BA announcement today. And hopefully after seeing Chinas stealth fighter last week, we now understand we must beef up defense spending. The conserative in me speaking there.

Our "Par Stars", which include stocks that rise through 100, include CMI on 12/1, WLT 11/19, WLL 10/5, WYNN 10/11, FCX 11/4 (those are the dates in which they broke thru that number). All the stocks have ran further after breaking thru 100, which stocks that break that majic number often do. These formerly mentioned stocks have ran up between 15-40 dollars above 100. Historically stocks that break thru 90 run to par and then farther so it is important to watch for potential new Par Stars. On that list should be CAT UNP JOYG DE CXO OXY CLF EMN.

Stocks showing weakness include KMX ORLY TIF WSM PM ABV all of which are now living comfortably below their 50 day MA. COH stopped at 55, its 50 day MA. OMC can be shorted at 46, its 50 day MA.

Good luck.

The author owns DE KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC UNP RAX AMTD FCX SDS. Short EBAY FOSL PAAS ANF.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets again demonstrated resiliency Friday. Shrugging off overseas weakness and a slightly lower open here at home, markets closed upon their highs of the day. Volume kicked in to boot. Semis vastly outperformed Friday and for the week they were up astonishing 6.1%. The Nasdaq rose almost 2%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.7% for the week. INTC good earnings report, albiet the stock closed down undoubtedly helped tech, but financials shined as well Friday thanks to JPM. New highs are trouncing new lows. For example on the Nasdaq Friday 52 week highs outnumbered 52 week lows by 228 to 8. Could the market be getting frothy here? Absolutely. But remember to keep losses small, but more importantly let your winners run. As John Maynard Keynes famously said, "markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you or I can remain solvent". Big earnings week on tap on the shortened holiday week with markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King day. AAPL GS SLB IBM GOOG and many more.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases are DOV @59.92, MDR @21.13, SPN @36.09, RIO @73.10, COST @73.55, BID @47.90, SBUX @33.52, PPG @85.15, MAR @42.78, SAPE @13.54, BMC @42.91, ORCL @32.37, RHT @49.10, EXPD @57.25, UPS @74.04. Cup bases are RS @55.57, GOOG @630.95, JNS @15.82, NYX @34.92, PAYX @32.92, LEN @21.89. Cup with handles are MSCC @24.78, ATU @28.35, HAL @41.83, NOC @68.85, NTRS @56.96. 5 week tights are DHR @48.06, IR @47.91, DD @50.64. 4 week tight is CAT @94.99 and double bottom is CRUS @19.17.

Stocks that broke out Friday include KBR from a flat base buy point of 31.52 on big volume. APC broke out from a 79.08 cup with high handle buy point in good volume as well. Semis that rode the coattails of INTC earnings on Friday include ALTR which broke out of a 38.24 flat base buy point and LLTC which broke out from a 5 week tight pattern at 35.48. All were in good volume. I will just from here on out assume that you know a breakout includes very strong volume. MXIM continues to follow thru on its 24.99 flat base buy point that occurred Tuesday. 3 stocks demonstrating very tight action after recent breakouts include KSU @50.17 from a flat base on 1/6/11. OPEN @76.79 also from a flat base on 1/7/11. AGU @89.79 from a cup base on 12/29. Very bullish action when this tight trade develops after a recent breakout.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are ALV @79, BWA @66.50, F @17, PCAR @56, GTI @19.50, SCHN @61, X @53, PKI @25, VSH @15, ROK @70, ANR @55, ACI @32, JRCC @23, JKS @25, MUR @71, OXY @93, BTU @61, TSO @17.25, AA @14.25, VALE @34, SQM @54, ARUN @23, RCII @29.50, SOA @22.80, ADSK @38, CA @24, INFA @43, CHRW @76.50. AKAM reclaimed its 50 day MA on Thursday and continued to rush ahead Friday. CMG retook its 50 day Friday as it works on a new base. UA is stubbornly holding on to its 50 day. Stocks that can be bought as and if they reclaim their 50 day MAs are INTU thru 48.25, PTEN thru 21.25, NBL thru 85. Stocks which rebounded off their 50 day MA Friday were XXIA DECK WYN CHKP SNPS VRSN.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are PBR 36, AEM 67, PVH 58, LOGI 17, LLL 76, WSM 30.25, TGT 54, HPQ 44.25, DRI 44.50, DLTR 47, GES 40, LTD 27.25, TAP 46. BAC continues to show strength after reclaiming its 200 day MA as is RTN. ABX found 200 day support Friday, and NEM further shows once a 200 day line is violated doesnt bode well for its future. MCD however did reclaim its 200 day Friday and can be bought with a 72 sell stop. LMT can be bought thru 75, its 200 day MA. IBN found 200 day support 3 times this week. PNC had a 5% move Friday after 6 weeks of consolidating above its 200 day MA. TBT looking stronger all the time as it has now been holding above that 200 day line for some time now. Further adding to the bull case, since in general as bonds lose value, stocks gain on the rotation.

Stocks showing weakness are CPX ANN GFI OMC which continue to lose more ground under their 50 day. ABV plunged below its 50 day in enormous volume. YUM was recently stopped at its 50 day and continues lower. NFX can be shorted under 70, its 50 day. COH @55.25, NKE @86 can be shorted at their 50 day MAs. CREE was a notable laggard in the semi space Friday. Holding onto its 200 day MA here. Earnings Tuesday. Hmm, does someone know something??

Portfolio changes today were buying FCX @118 which should have been down on a weak gold day, although copper did rally. Good relative strength. Short ANF @52, going below its 50 day MA.

Good luck.

The author owns DE KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC UNP RAX AMTD FCX SDS. Short EBAY FOSL PAAS ANF.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets fell slightly Thursday. A weak jobless claims report cancelled out by two well recieved bond auctions among the PIGS. Spain and Italy. Breadth among equities continues very bullishly. New highs are overwhelming new lows. A concern is the percentage of bullish managers to bearish ones. It is near highs not seen for some time. As always first and foremost let the indexes and the volume accompanying them to guide your trading. INTC was up slightly after the close and JPM reports before Fridays open.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases ALTR @38.24, MCHP @36.51, MSCC @24.78, MDR @21.13, SBUX @33.52, KBR @31.52. 3 week tight patterns are CVX @92.58, JOYG @90.56, CAT @94.99, CMI @113.98. Cup with handles are ATU @28.35, NOC @68.95, HD @35.67, FDX @96.33, NTRS @56.96. 5 week tight patterns are ADI @38.70, AVT @34.00. Cup base is PAYX @32.92. Double bottom is CRUS @19.17. PH broke out of a flat base @88.39 today in big volume. WFMI broke out of a 51.85 flat base @51.85 today as well. AGU is backing up toward its 89.79 cup base buy point on 12/29. CLR is backing up toward its 60.08 flat base buy point on 1/11. Both breakouts as always occurred in big volume. Stocks often trace their way back to their original buy points before resuming their uptrends.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are BWA @66, AVGO @27, TXN @32.50, SCHN @61, X @53, DHR @45.50, ROK @70, HAL @38.60, MUR @70.75, NFX @70, WLL @112.50, OXY @92.30, DECK @78, SQM @54, BID @44, SBUX @31.80, PPG @80.40, INFA @43, SNPS @25.50, CHRW @76.50, UPS @71, ABV here, RHT here, EXPD here. BUD reclaimed its 50 day MA today but volume was timid. AKAM did the same but volume was a bit better but still not strong on AKAM as it took out its 5o day MA. BIDU is holding above its 50 day MA. NFLX is now moving higher again after enjoying recent 50 day support. MIPS had an enormous move higher after finding support at its 50 day MA.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are AEM @67, ABX @46, HPQ @44.30, LOGI @17, RTN @49, DRI @44.50, BAC @14.15. IBN found 200 day support for the second time this week Thursday. MCD joined the ominous group of NEM LO which have all lost their 200 day support now.

Stocks showing weakness and falling further below their 50 day MAs are PTEN COH PAAS NKE ORLY WSM YUM OMC INTU. PX LVS both lost their 50 day MAs today. Stocks that can can be shorted as they move toward their 50 day are ANN @26, KMX @33.10, JWN @42.50.

Portfolio changes today were going long AMTD @20.68 as it broke out of a cup base in big volume.

Good luck.

The author owns DE KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC UNP AMTD SDS. Short EBAY PAAS FOSL.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Wednesday Recap

Markets showed great strength Wednesday in mixed volume. The days winners hailed from the ag and bank space although many sectors performed well. For example LULU soared due to the companies positive outlook. Chip stocks performed well too. News from Europe helped as Portugal had what was seen as a successful bond auction. The beige book offered some encouragement too. PPI and weekly jobless claims are out Thursday AM. INTC also reports after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points: Cup with handles are NTRS @56.96, MSCC @24.78, GTI @21.21, ATU @28.35, HAL @41.83, WLL @118.90, BK @31.97, USB @27.50. Cup bases are MCHP @36.51, RS @55.67, GOOG @630.95, NYX @34.92, AMTD @20.68, LEN @21.89. Flat bases are TXN @34.03, DOV @59.92, NOV @68.71, SLB @84.65, SPN @36.09, RIO @73.10. Cup with high handles are APC @79.08, BBBY @51.05. 4 week tight bases are DHR @48.06, IR @47.91. 3 weeks tight are CMI @113.98, CAT @94.99, JOYG @90.56. 5 week tight patterns are LLTC @35.48, AVT @34.02. Double bottom is CRUS @19.17 and double bottom with handle is CREE @72.95.

Stocks near 50 day MAs are BWA @66, PCAR @56, AVGO @27, MIPS @15, ROK @70, ACI @32, BTU @61, SU @36, DECK @78, ICON @19, ARUN @22.50, SMSI @15.20, FL here, SBUX @31.80, MAR here, HOT @59, ABV @29, ADSK @39, INFA @43, SNPS @26.20, UPS @71, EXPD here. Stocks that can be bought as they burst thru their 50 day MAs are AKAM @50.25, BUD @58.60. JKS was up 6% today after breaking thru its 50 day MA on Tuesday. RIG which has found continuous 50 day support since breaking thru on 8/2/10 is now building its right side of its base.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are LTD @27.25, HPQ @44.25, PVH @58, RTN @49, DRI @44.50, GES @40, MCD @73.20, TAP @46. PBR was up 4% today. It has been rock solid since breaking above its 200 day 12/29. BP has looked good since it pushed above its 200 day on 12/14/10. SWN seems to be freeing itself from its 200 day MA that was resistance for some time. BAC IBN both seem to be enjoying time above their 200 day. BAC just broke thru its 200 day on 1/5 and IBN found 200 day support Monday. On the downside both LO NEM have lost their 200 day lines recently. An ominous sign.

Stocks showing weakness are CVS OMC which both had outside reversal days Wednesday. Stocks that found resistance today at their 50 day MAs were OVTI RL PTEN KMX COH WSM. INTU is falling further below its 50 day MA. X was a notable laggard in the steel space today. Stocks that can be shorted as they approach their 50 day MAs are WAT @78, ABX @51.75. ANF can be shorted under 52, its 50 day.

Portfolio changes today were selling VRSN for a 50 cent loss. Stock acting poorly the group is trending lower. We shorted PAAS @38 after it showed resistance there at its 50 day MA. We also shorted FOSL @69.05 as it lost its 50 day and is among the weakening retail space.

Good luck.

The author owns DE KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC UNP SDS. Short EBAY PAAS FOSL.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets again by the numbers looked like a boring day. As we have discussed the old adage never sell a dull market. Or are the indexes just biding their time and waiting to digest the bulk of forthcoming earning reports. Let the indexes themselves tell us. No ones opinion really matters. Commodities led the way Tuesday. Oil is back above $91 and the Nasdaq today closed at levels not seen since December 2007. And that was with small losses in leaders such as AAPL PCLN. Retail has been taking it on the chin as crude has advanced as of late.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases PCAR @58.85, TXN @34.03, BEXP @28.49, CAM @51.81, BTU @66.17, SLB @84.65, PLCM @41.01, FISV @143.85, SBUX @33.52, FISV @60.74. 3 week tight patterns are CMI @113.98, CAT @94.99, JOYG @90.56, CVX @92.58, TROW @66.25, ACN @50.19, CA @25.20. 5 week tight patterns are ADI @38.53, LLTC @35.48, AVT @34.02, PLL @51.11. Cup bases are CNX @55.49, PAYX @32.92, DHI @15.54, LEN @21.89. Cup with handles are NUE @44.97, ATU @28.35, HD @35.67, JPM @45.05. WYNN is just below its 117.60 buy point in a cup base that occurred on 1/7. KSU is backing up to its 50.17 cup base buy point also on 1/7. CLR broke out of a 60.25 flat base buy point in big volume today. MXIM broke out of a 24.99 flat base buy point today on big volume as well. Stocks building potential cup with handle patterns are (remember handles need 5 days to form). NOC @68.85, MCO @30.19, CRM @144.79, BK @31.79.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are AVGO @27, BRCM @44, ROK @69.25, SU @36, VALE @33.50, DECK @76, RVBD @34, SQM @54, COST @69, FL @18.50, RCII @29.15, PPG @80.50, SOA @22.50, CCL @44, LVS @48, HOT @59, RAI @32.50, ABV @29, ORCL @29.80, CHRW @76, FDX @91.75, UPS @71, GS @165. Stocks that found 50 day support Tuesday are MSCC BHP HAL RIO WFMI MAR. Both JKS EGO took out their 50 day MAs Tuesday.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are MS @26.50, IBN @44.25, TAP @46, TGT @54.30, MCD @73.10, PVH @58, LOGI @17, ANN @21, DRI @44.50, GES @40, LTD @27.30, RTN here. PBR has now found support above its 200 day MA numerous times after breaking above it 12/29 on big volume. The trend has changed for PBR. LMT can be bought above 74.75, its 200 day MA.

Stocks displaying weakness are CMG that has now been living below its 50 day MA ever since the day after Xmas. FOSL had an outside reversal day and closed just at its 50 day. INTU lost its 50 day Tuesday. Stocks that can be shorted as they fall under their 50 days are NFX under 69, ANF under 52, PNRA under 100. Stocks that can be shorted as they move back toward their 50 days are OVTI @29, RL @109, CPX @29, KMX @33, COH @55, NKE @86. Stocks that found 50 day resistance Tuesday were PTEN SUN PAAS YUM NBL.

Portfolio changes Tuesday were long RAX @32.79 as it broke out of a flat base in big volume.

Good luck.

The author owns DE VRSN KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC UNP RAX SDS. Short EBAY.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Monday Monday

Markets showed some good resilience Monday. Traditionally the strongest day of the week, leading stocks rallied smartly even as the broad action was mixed. AAPL OPEN UNP all performed admirably. Stocks overcame early weakness from European bourses with the Nasdaq down almost 1% at the open. A bullish trait. Semis once again outperformed. AA was down 2% in after hours trading on earnings news.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases. IRF @30.84, MXIM @24.99, MCHP @36.51, TXN @34.03, TKR @50.27, DOV @59.92, PLL @51.11, CXO @90.40, NFX @73.68, FFIV @143.85, RAX @32.79, BID @47.90, INFA @46.45. 3 weeks tight are AVT @34.02, TEL @36.53, CAT @94.99, ITW @54.74, JOYG @90.56, CVX @92.58, TROW @66.25. Cup bases are RS @55.57, AMTD @20.68, RHI @32.35. Cup with handles are GTI @21.21, HD @35.67. Double bottom with handles are VLTR @25.10, URBN @39.05. Double bottoms are CRUS @19.17, LVS @52.18. 4 week tight are AVGO @29.04, IR @47.91. OPEN continued higher after Fridays breakout @76.79 from a flat base on strong volume.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are ALTR @35.30, DHR @45.20, ATU @25.20, ESV @50.25, MDR @19, BTU @60.40, PUDA @13, SLB @79, SU @36, WFT @21, VALE @33.60, ICON @19, PLCM @37.50, SMSI @15, ANF @52, COST @69, FOSL @70, PNRA @100, RCII @29, WFMI @48, PPG @80.25, SOA @23.20, CCL @44, MAR @40.20, HOT @59, ABV @29, NDAQ @22.60, BMC @46.25, CA @24, MSCC here. NFLX bounced off 50 day support today. Stocks that can be bought as they move upward through their 50 day MAs are AKAM thru 50.30, JKS thru 26.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are MT @33.80, PBR here, SWN @37, ABX @46, CRI @28, LOGI @17, RTN @49, DRI @44.50, GES @40.25, LTD @27.25, MCD @73, TGT @44.25, TAP @46, IBN here. BAC @14 and not going down on bearish news regarding the foreclosure court case decisions last week. A very bullish sign. HPQ took out its 200 day last Thursday on good volume and its 200 day is 44.25. PVH rebounded smartly off its 200 day MA Friday and today. RTN took out its 200 day MA Friday in big volume. Group mate LMT can be bought above 75, its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted as the move back toward their 50 day MAs are CPX @28.75, NBL @84, PTEN @21, PAAS @38, SLW @36, COH @55, NKE @86, ANN @25.75, KMX @33, WSM @35, YUM @50. SUN lost its 50 day MA today in big volume.

Portfolio changes today were covering TIBX for a $1 loss. Retook its 50 day MA in big volume. Buying UNP @95.88 as it busted thru a flat base buy point there in big volume.

Good luck. The author owns DE VRSN KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC UNP SDS. Short EBAY.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Weekend Market Thoughts

As the saying goes, so goes the first week, so goes the year in the stock market. If that is the case then the bulls have plenty to be cheery about. The Nasdaq gained almost 2% on the week and the S&P 500 just over 1%. The Philly semiconductor index gained 3.4%. For the week the rotation seems to be continuing with gold, silver and retail falling upon hard times. The weeks strongest groups were homebuilders, transports, casinos and semis. Wednesdays ADPs employment report blasted through estimates while Fridays BLS employment report fell below views. AA kicks off earnings season Monday.

Stocks near specific buy points are. Flat bases are as follows: TEN @44.01, CLR @60.25, NFX @73.68, SLB @84.65, OII @76.96, CBI @34.55, PMTC @23.46, FFIV @143.85, RAX @32.79, FDX @95.29, UNP @95.88, UPS @74.04, MDR @21.13, PH @88.39, SBUX @32.58, TXN @34.03, ADI @38.70, TKR @50.27, HUN @17.00, PLL @51.11, LTC @35.48, FISV @60.74. 3 week tight patterns are CMI @113.98, CVX @92.58, TROW @66.25, CAT @94.99, JOYG @90.56, OKE @56.68, FLR @68.63, AMG @102.77. 4 week tight patterns are DD @50.64, IR @47.91, AVGO @29.04, DHR @48.06. Double bottom base is LVS @52.18 and GOOG with a 630.95 cup base buy point. As always demand strong volume of 50% or more of average daily trade.

Stocks near 50 day MAs are SQM @54, NOV @62, BEXP @26, HAL @38, BTU @60, SLB @79, SU @36, SPN @32.50, ARBA @22, CHKP @44.50, INFA @43, QSFT @27, VRSN @32.60, NTAP 54, IBM @145.50, NTGR 33, TRMB @38.75, VALE @33.50, MDR @19, DOV @56.70, ROK @69, TEX @27, KBR @28.50, COST @69, DECK @74, ANF @52, LOW @23.75, SCCO @46, RAI @32.50, STT @45, NDAQ @22.50, BMC @46, CTL @44, ATU @25, PCAR @55.50, MCHP @34.20, AGCO @48, FST @35.60, OIS @60, MIPS @16, WFT @21. Stocks that found 50 day support today, on a weak day, and rebounded were MUR WLL INTU FOSL RHT PX EXPD XXIA UPS SBUX RIO FL WFMI DKS ALB. BIDU DTV broke back above their 50 day MA Friday.

Stocks near their 200 day MAs are SMG @48.80, PBR @36, SWN @37, BVN @42, FDO @43, MCD @73, PVH @58, TGT @54.25, LTD @27.25, TAP @46, IBN @44.40, CREE @64, LOGI @17, HNZ @47, BAC @14.20. DISCA found 200 day support Friday. NEM falls further below 200 day MA.

OPEN broke out from a 76.79 flat base buy point on good volume. WYNN broke out from its 117.60 buy point in healthy volume in a cup base.

Stcoks showing weakness today were: SIAL RADS UA PETM RL TIF WSM NVLS KLAC all of which lost their 50 day MA Friday. Stocks that have fallen further below their 50 day this past week were NLC AMT ABX PAAS ORLY KMX NKE KO ANN M GES PM OVTI FOE PTEN. Stocks that can be shorted as they move back up toward their 50 day MAs are YUM @50, SLW @36, CB @59. The alcohol/tobacco group was hit hard Friday including STZ LO PM.

Portfolio changes Friday include Selling CHRW near 80. Transports had a great day and CHRW did not participate. We bought CHRW on 11/30 @73.52 from a flat base on big volume. We sold BBT @26.60 for a 75 cent loss as it lost its catalyst of rising above its 200 day a few days ago. Cut losses quickly. We covered TTM @27 for a $3 gain. We shorted it 12/20 as it found 50 day MA resistance.
We shorted TIBX Friday right about here as it continues to find 50 day resistance after its bearish outside reversal day 12/20. We bought NSC @63.77 as it broke out from a flat base on big volume.

Good luck.

The author owns DE VRSN KKR QCOM JCI NETL TRW NSC. Short EBAY TIBX.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets closed again in lackluster fashion. Their is an a feeling of rotation going on in the indexes. Recent laggard groups including financials, and today homebuilders are becoming stronger. Retail and gold miners have been pounded this week. Semis have been and continue to be strong. The Philly semi index gained almost 2% Thursday. Markets should break out from their recent hibernation with some decent move one way or the other when the jobs report is out tomorrow morning.

Stocks near specific buy points include LLTC @35.17, WCC @53.88, ALB @57.44, DHR @47.69, AVGO @29.04, DD @50.27, IR @47.60, CBE @59.75. All previously mentioned were 3 week tight patterns. Flat bases are OPEN @76.79, TXN @34.03, ADI @38.70, PCAR @57.93. JWN a retail powerhouse today among retail weakness is near a 44.05 cup with handle buy point.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are MAR @40.25, HOT @59, CXO @82, NOV @62, CAM @48, HAL @38, BTU @60, SLB @78.70, SU @35.80, WLL @111, INTU @48, QSFT @27, RHT @45, EXPD @53.50, UNP @91.50, BHP @88.20, MDR @18.80, DOV @56.50, GPC @49.50, WFMI @47.75, SBUX @31.50, COST @69, DECK @74, FL @18.30, DKS @34.60, ANF @52, MT @35.40, SCCO @46, NDAQ @22.50, ATU @25, FST @35.50, OIS @60, CNQ @41, WFT @20.75, WYN SIAL MKC here.
Both HS MCO reclaimed their 50 day MAs Thursday. AGP OII both found 50 day MA support today. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs are BUD thru 59, BIDU thru 106.50.

Stocks near 200 day MAs are PBR @36.25, SWN @37, BVN @42, FDO @43, MCD @73, DISCA @39.40, HNZ @47, LTD @27.25, TAP @46, IBN @44.50. AEM 200 day support is at 67. AEM looks very overdone here looks overdone, down 20 points in one month. URBN TGT both found 200 day support today.

Stocks showing good moves today are. RAI broke out from a 33.51 buy point in a flat base in big volume. PCLN added nicely today to yesterdays breakout. KSU broke out from a 50.17 buy point in a flat base today in good volume. RVBD broke out from a 38.04 buy point in a flat base also today. TC back near a 14.25 cup with handle buy point. AGU still above a 89.79 cup base breakout, and MOS is still above a 74.35 cup base breakout as well. AGU MOS both broke out on 12/29 on huge trade in a week that was devoid of volume.

ETFs in the news are EZA @71, its 50 day MA. USO found 50 day support today. SMH has a 33.36 flat base buy point. EWG EWA GLD all lost their 50 day MAs.

Stocks showing weakness are: WLL MEE CMI that had outside reversal days today. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today are SPG NBL NLC GFI SLW FMC PAAS GES RES WSM STZ PTEN M BBG. Stocks that have lost their 50 day recently and continue further to lose more ground under that MA are TTM EBAY CPX ABX ORLY PVH WRC KMX HRC NKE KO ANN PM FOE HNZ. TIBX is finding resistance at its 50 day MA. VIT tried to rally above 50 day MA today but closed below it. Both NEM EGO lost their 200 day MAs today. Big red flag. Stocks that can be shorted as they break under their 50 day MA are UA under 54, CB under 58.40. YUM can be shorted as it approaches its 50 day MA @50.

Portfolio changes today were long NETL @34.45 as it took out that buy point in a double bottom with handle buy point in big volume. Sold ARMH @22.25 after a reversal today on big volume. We bought ARMH twice. First @18.35 as it retook its 50 day MA on 11/19. Secondly @19.38 as it took out a cup with handle on 12/21 on huge volume for an 18.87 average. A gain of 18%. On a down note sold NVDA about 4 points ago early this week. No real reason to sell even though we had a handsome gain.

Good luck.

The author owns CHRW DE VRSN KKR QCOM JCI TRW BBT NETL SDS. Short TTM EBAY.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Wednesday Thoughts

Markets shook off early weakness to end near their highs of the day. A signature bull move. The feeling continues to be a market that will not let people in. Another hallmark of a bull. Volume was mixed and indexes reacted to a tremendously strong private sector job number. The 297,000 number was the best in the ten year history of the ADP.

Stocks near specific buy points are: 3 week tight patterns for CBE @59.75, IR @47.60, HLF @69.57, ILMN @66.69. Cup with handles are FDX @96.33, JWN @44.05, BEAV @38.73. Cup bases are WYNN @117.60, PCP @145.50. Flat bases are KSU @50.17, VSH @15.72. 4 week tight patterns are UPS @74.04, ADI @38.70, PLL @51.11. Double bottom is BBD @21.00. PCLN blasted out of a 428.20 flat base buy point in huge volume.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are WYN @29.80, MAR @40.25, NOV @62, CAM @48, FTI @83.50, HAL @38, BTU @60, WLL @111, INTU @48, QSFT @26.90, RHT @45, TXN @32, ALTR @35, SIAL @65.30, VNO @83.25, EXPD @48.30, UNP @91.50, BHP @88, DOV @56.50, KBR @28.25, ROP @74, SBUX @31.50, PETM @39, CPO @45, TGT @57.25, FL @18.40, DHR @45, ALB @54, MKC @45.50, ATU @25. Stocks that have found support and rocketed off that line in big volume in the last week are RIG CRM OPEN GOOG FFIV RIMM PCP. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs are BIDU thru 106.50, EPD thru 42.25, VIT thru 36.40. MCO made a nice upward move thru its 50 day MA on good volume today.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are UPL @45, MCD @73, URBN @35, LOGI @17, DISCA @39.25. Stocks that found 200 day support today are SMG PBR EGO LO. NEM lost 200 day support today. A red flag.

ETFs near buy spots are FXI thru 44.60, its 50 day MA. XLF with a 17.22 cup base buy point. TBT bolted off 200 day support today, GLD closed under its 50 day MA.

Stocks showing weakness and losing their 50 day MAs today are ABX KO TAP KLAC LRCX FOE. LTD is falling further under its 50 day and nearing 200 day support @ 27.50. Stocks that can be shorted as they move back toward their 50 day are CPX @28, KMX @33, OVTI @29. Dollar store stocks were weak today. FDO had a weak earnings report and affected others in the group like DLTR.

Portfolio changes were long JCI @40.25 as it broke out from a flat base in big volume. Long BBT @27.25 as broke thru its 200 day MA.

Good luck.

The author owns ARMH CHRW DE VRSN KKR QCOM TRW BBT JCI SDS. Short TTM EBAY.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Tuesday After Market

Markets finished mixed Tuesday with the Dow the only major index to finish in the black. Volume rose across the board which would mark the first distribution recently. Gold and silver, along with oil finished down big. Retail sector also was weak.

Stocks near specific buy points are: KSU @49.58, DD @50.27, ORCL @32.37, NDAQ @24.44, RAI @33.05 all 3 week tight patterns. Flat bases are BLL @69.80, KSU @50.17, JCI @40.25. 4 week tight pattern for PLL @51.11. Cup base for WYNN @117.60. Double bottom with handles are CRUS @17.06, NETL @34.45. AGU is back near its 89.79 buy point in a cup with handle base.

Stocks near their 50 day MAs are STZ @21, FL @18.40, WFMI @47.30, SIAL @65.20, PCAR @55, ALB @54, FDX @91, MAR @40, PLCM @37.15, CAM @48, HAL @38, BTU @60, SLB @78, PTEN @20.80, OII @71, ARBA @21.50, ADSK @37, INTU @48, RHT @45, PX @93, BMC @46, FFIV @130, RAX @29, EXPD @48.25, BHP @88, SBUX @31.30, JWN @42, PETM @39, CPO @45, ALTR @35, NVLS @31, KLAC @38, MXIM @23.50, DHR @45, MKC @45.30, ATU @25, MCHP @34, RJF @31, BRKR @16, FISV @57, HNZ @49, KO here. Stocks that did find 50 day support today are NBL PMTC SLW UPL GFI SWC PNRA. DTV is reclaiming its 50 day, and stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day MAs are: VIT thru 36.50, EPD thru 42.25, HS thru 28.10.

Stocks near their 200 day support are AKAM @44.50, AEM @67, MCD @73, NEM and MRX here. PBR bounced off 200 day support and turned higher. NYX is establishing itself firmly above its 200 day MA. BBT can be bought thru 27.25, and BAC thru 14.40, as they reclaim their 200 day MA.

XOM APA both displayed strong relative strength amid an oil sell off. Very bullish action indeed. CLF MTL AA all showed extraordinary relative strength Tuesday.

ETFs near buy spots are FXI thru 44.75, its 50 day MA. It found recent support at its 200 day MA. GLD found support Tuesday at its 50 day MA. Lets see if it holds.

Stocks showing weakness are: All these finished below their 50 day MA in big volume which is a red flag. PVH WRC NKE LTD TAP OVTI HRC ROST CPX TIBX YUM ORLY. AAP NLC both had bad days after a recent outside reversal days. RL had an outside reversal day today. UA can be shorted under 54, its 50 day MA. Commercial real estate was weak today with PSA SPG VNO all trading weakly Tuesday. SMG a laggard in a strong ag group needs to hold its 200 day MA @48.70.

Portfolio changes today include long TRW @54.93 as it took out a 4 week tight pattern in strong volume. Long QCOM @50.41 also taking out a 4 week tight pattern. More significant it powered ahead even after announcing a buyout offer of ATHR.

Good luck.

The author owns ARMH CHRW DE VRSN KKR QCOM TRW SDS. Short TTM EBAY.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Monday Monday

Markets started the New Year off on a very bright note. Volume came in stronger than previous weeks levels, although it was just normal on average. Leading stocks performed well which legitimizied the days rally. Energy and financials led the way. The Nasdaq led the way with a 1.5% gain. Markets started the day on a strong note with US factory showing a 17th consecutive expansion phase.

Stocks near specific buy points are: 3 weeks tight, ORCL @32.37, ANF @58.60. JCI @40.25 in a flat base. JWN @44.05 in a cup with handle. And CRUS @17.06, NETL @34.45 and GCI @16.27 all double bottom with handles. Stocks that did break out today were: CLF @80.50 in a cup with handle formation. VMW @92.05 from a 4 week tight pattern. NTAP @56.65 in a cup with handle. NSC @63.77 in a 4 weeks tight pattern. CAVM @40.22 from a flat base. MTL @29.84 from a cup with handle. ROK @72.69 in a 3 week tight pattern. PAYX @31.39 in a cup with handle base. All of those breakouts mentioned were on big volume.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are PTEN @20.80, STZ @21, NVLS @31 and COH here. Stocks that had strong support over the last day or two are PCLN CRM XXIA FOE VRSN TDC PCP UA NKE TIF KLAC TQNT. Stocks that bounce off that 50 day in strong volume can be bought as long as that line remains intact. Stocks that can be bought as they move upward thru their 50 day MA are: MCO thru 27.20, EPD thru 42.25, DTV thru 41.65, BUD thru 59.15, IBN thru 52. As always demand strong volume. Stocks that broke above their 50 day MAs today in strong volume were WYNN VNO GOOG ARUN.

Stocks near their 200 day MA are PBR @36.50, URBN @35, TBT here. BBT can be bought thru 27.25, its 200 day MA.

Gap ups holding intact are APC RHT CCL.

Stocks showing weakness today were: Outside reversals were WLL NBL IPI NLC OVTI. Stocks that were stopped at their 50 day MAs today were SMG LVS LTD. HAS WRC AAP all fell under their 50 day MA in heavy volume. Bearish action. AEM had a huge down day proving that 5% plunge 12/16 under its 50 day MA was no fluke.

As I alluded to during todays session I pared the portfolio back significantly. The market has had a big run and I took advantage of a traditional first day of the month strength. I still believe in the rally but didnt like the reversals in some commodity and other sectors today.

WCRX we sold for a 2% gain after buying it @22.30 on 12/17 as it broke above its 50 day MA in big volume. GPS we sold for a 5% gain after buying it thru its 200 day MA on 11/30 in big volume. NVDA we sold for a 20% gain after buying it @13.20 on 11/18 as it found 200 day support. And we sold X after buying it @50.15 on 12/1 for a 20% gain as well. We may revisit these names on pullbacks.

Good luck.

The author owns ARMH CHRW DE VRSN KKR SDS. Short TTM EBAY.

Midday Update

Am in the process of selling a big portion of the portfolio to raise cash. Details tonight. Using this traditional first day of the month strength to lighten up and preserve gains.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Friday saw another round of somewhat lackluster trade. Volume was tame and markets really went nowhere. The last couple of weeks are always slow with traders taking holiday. Stocks that have broken out this recently, continue to trade sideways and consolidate those gains into flat bases, cup with handles and 3 week tight formations. However some that did breakout this week were SQM MOS ANR TC, all in big volume in a week that traditionally shows extreme low volume levels. A very bullish sign for those stocks. Which sectors will be the strongest in 2011? As always let the charts show the way.

Stocks showing specific buy points are: 3 week tight bases are as follows, DKS @38.20, ANF @58.60, RAI @33.05, STZ @22.62, ADI @38.33, NDAQ @24.44, FAST @60.49, DHR @47.69, SWKS @29.85, AMG @102.16, FL @20.06, TSCO @49.57, KO @65.85, COST @73.26, WFMI @51.85, GPC @51.71, FMC @82.07, CBE @59.75, ORCL @32.37, SIAL @67.86, DD @50.27, EMC @23.30, TRMB @42.29, KSU @49.58, ROK @72.85, IR @47.60. Flat bases are as follows, EMR @58.84, EFX @36.23, ETN @102.80, LLTC @35.04, PCAR @57.93, ALB @57.44, VSH @15.72, ADP @47.27, CB @60.33, GES @50.30, M @26.42, F @17.13, WYN @31.51, BEXP @28.25, FTI @90.90, SUN @41.33, SPN @35.54, IBM @147.63, CSX @64.90, UNP @95.88. Cup with handles are CTXS @71.67, FDX @96.33, WSM @36.75, LOW @25.96, MT @38.90, MTL @29.84, NUE @44.97, STT @47.92. 4 week tight patterns are, TRW @54.93, CBI @33.59, VMW @92.05, NLC @32.72, QCOM @50.41, UPS @74.04, LRCX @53.01, PLL @51.11. Double bottom with handles are CRUS @17.06, CREE @72.95, NETL @34.45, GCI @16.27. Cup without handles are WNR @10.75, WM @37.35, and double bottom without handle is BBD @21.00. As always wait for the specific price confirmation and the big volume accompanying the move.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are: ALV @76.50, TEN @38, TRW @50, MGA @49.50, WYN @40, HOT @58.25, CPX @28, CAM @48, XOM @70.50, NBL @83.50, UPL @46.25, SBUX @31, URI @21, TAP @49.15, ALTR @34.50, CAVM @36, GFI @17.10, ERF @29, PTEN @20.70, OII @70, ADSK @36.75, INFA @44.25, PMTC @22.25, INTU @48, RHT @44.50, VRSN @32.25, BLL @66.25, RVBD @32.50, JNPR @34.50, NTGR @32.25, UPS @70.25, SWC @20, ROP @74, PFE @17, COH @54.20, TIF @60, FOSL @67.50, OVTI @29, TXN @31.90, NVLS @31, KLAC @38, MXIM @23, PAY @36.25, BEAV @36.50, XXIA @16.15, BMC @46, PLCM @37, HUN @14.80, MKC @45.25, PCS @12, APH @52, ICON @18.75, BX @13.70, MSCC @22.25, MIPS @14.25, BRKR @16, FISV @57, TQNT @11.25. Stocks that found support Friday at their 50 day MA and can be bought as long as that line of support holds are WYN RES CRM TDC FFIV PCP ORLY UA JWN HLF NKE BRCM FOE MCHP ROST. Stocks that can be bought as they break back above their 50 day MAs are: WYNN thru 106, EPD thru 42.25, VNO thru 84.25, IBN thru 52.

Stocks near 200 day MA are PBR @36, SWN @37.25, VNO @81.75, AKAM @44.30, RIMM @57, MRX @26.40, URBN @35, BUD @54, NYX @29, LOGI @17, CL @79.25, BP @42, PNC @58.25. PBR took out its 200 day on good volume Wednesday while volume in general was very weak for the rest of the market. A good sign. BBT can be bought thru 27.25, its 200 day MA.

Stocks building the right side of their base and that should be put on your watch list include JNS BLK USB RS MSFT AMTD CNX SPLS CVS PAYX.

ETFs near buy spots are: SMH can be bought @33.36 in a 4 week tight pattern. EWA @25, its 50 day MA. GLD found 50 day support this week. TBT is right at 50 day support here. FXI found 200 day support this week @42. XLF USO XHB are all building their right side of bases. OIH above 140 for the first time in 26 months breaking thru a long consolidation.

Stocks showing weakness are: GOOG NFLX CMG which all have recently lost their 50 day MA. And these are recent leaders which is not a great sign. Another leader PCLN is barely holding its 50 day here. BIDU also a former leader has the look of a bad, broken chart. Other high quality stocks that have recently lost their 50 day MAs are PVH HAS KMX LTD VIT. These names can be shorted back near their 50 day MA.

Portfolio changes Friday were selling CAKE for no gain or loss. A push.

The author owns NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN GPS KKR WCRX SDS. Short TTM EBAY.