Thursday, January 20, 2011

Thursday Charting

Markets for the second day fell hard but did manage to close off the lows. Techs, again for a second straight day, took the most severe blows. FFIV dsiappointment last night after hours led to a 21% loss today. GOOG is up almost 2% after hours now on a bullish forecast. Many leaders continued to lose more ground and perforate their 50 day MAs, usually a sign of support. Add the increasing volume on the downside and I feel content to be in cash right now. In hindsight last weeks strength in the defense stocks, (GD LLL LMT NOC RTN) could have been foreshadowing what became this correction look a like phase we experienced this week. Tomorrow earnings reports include BAC GE SLB.

Again as I am not looking for stock purchases currently I will only endorse the healthiest of stocks here for breakouts. ORCL is one after which closing higher yesterday in the midst of the Nasdaq's 1.5% loss, followed again with a strong move today in big volume and sits just below a 32.37 buy point in a flat base. Take note of relative strength. ACN is another example powering higher today on a weak tape and closing in on a 51.53 flat base buy point. Finally SBUX which closed in the black yesterday and again today (relative strength) is nearing a 33.52 flat base buy point as well. Some stocks that remain durable are ROK which had a great day and is still above a 72.85 3 weeks tight pattern it broke out from on 1/3. ADI is still above its 38.70 buy point in a flat base break out on 1/18. Add HPQ NBL on your relative strength performers.

Stocks 50 day MAs, which is where institutional investors step in to support an equity, are CMI 110.50, TEN 40.75, ALTR 36, MXIM 24, MCHP 35, SPRD 18.85, TXN 32.80, DHR 45.80, VSH 15, ATU 26, JOYG 83.70, PLL 48.25, COP 65, OXY 94, CLR 57, SPN 33.90, VALE 34, ICON 19.50, OPEN 72, AGCO 49, MON 65.80, LULU 63.75, AMZN 178.50, BBBY 47, SBUX 32, CE 40, DOW 33.60, SOA here, NDAQ 23, PMTC 22.80, TIBX 20.10, CHRW 77.40, FDX 92, STT 46, ALB 55.30. Stocks which found 50 day support today are BWA JCI AVGO BRCM IRF LLTC MSCC MIPS ST PH BEXP MEE MUR TSO NTAP AGU IPI MOS BIDU PCLN HOT. 3 to take note of today which bounced off 50 day support and motored to highs for the day on huge volume were UNP WLT TEL. Both UNP TEL halted their declines at 50 day support after releasing earnings today. Reminiscent of what occurred with AAPL after it earnings report last week.

Stocks near 200 day support are SWN 37, ABX 46, PVH 57.75, ANN 21, LTD 27.50, GES 40, BUD 54.70, BBT 26.50. Stocks which found 200 day support and then rallied off that line were BAC PBR AEM. I love technical analysis.

Stocks that look weak and pierced their 50 day MAS today (and these are leaders which is causing me concern) are CRM GS ALV PCAR DECK PLCM BID PKI DOV UA SQM DD ACI FTI XXIA ARUN MAR NFX BHP JNPR FFIV INFA FCX RIO NTGR RAX RHT. A broad mix of sector leaders were taken out and roughed up today. To give further evidence of why a breach of the 50 day MA is a cause for concern take a look at these stocks. They recently lost their 50 day and can not muster the strength to get back above that line. A change in trend if you will. They include COH KMX BBD WAT CMG NKE FL RL TIF YUM LOGI WYN PX. Stocks that can be shorted as they go below their 50 day lines now are IR under 44.50, RDC under 33, WLL under 113. URBN can be shorted if it falls below its 200 day MA at 34.50.

Good luck.

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