Sunday, September 11, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets fell hard for the second straight Friday as investors fear what the weekends may potentially bring. The Nazz fell 2.4% on slightly higher volume. For the week the loss looked tame, at 0.5%. It is now down 7% on the year and its 14.5% off its 52 week high. The S&P 500 lost 1.7% on stronger volume Friday. It gave back 1.7% on the week and rests 15.8% off its 52 week high. The fact that both indexes closed near their lows for the day Friday was unnerving. Leading stocks always a healthy gauge for market vitality were soft this week. Some are setting legitimate buy points. They include SWI 25.72 buy point in a cup with handle base and CVS 38.92 in a double bottom pattern. However in the absence of many stocks forming sound bases, we are left with seeing how stocks respond to their long term MAs, such as the 10 and 40 week. AAPL, the 800 lb. tech gorilla which makes up 8% of the Nasdaqs composition, is finding support at its 10 week line. COG, an energy stalwart, lost almost 6% Friday but managed to find tenuous support at its 10 week line as well. They need to hold that support, for as the leaders go, so goes the market. IBM surrendered 40 week support Friday, a bearish sign. It has only done that once this year on 8/19 and was able to quickly regain it 2 days later. It better do so in rapid fashion once again. HLF gave up 6%, MCD 4%, Friday both piercing 10 week support in the process. LULU lost its 10 week line on an earnings report Friday, but managed to close near its high for the day, somewhat bullish. Even alcohol and tobacco got hit Friday with BUD ABV both down 3%, and PM down a big 4%, as it nears a 40 week test Monday. Some things to be positive about, albeit barely, was some semis managed to escape the carnage on Friday, on the back of TXN news. Bull/bear surveys are starting to lean to the extreme negative side, which can be construed as bullish. Some stocks such as the defensive names also took a hit which could be taken as a positive. HSY lost its 10 week, while UN K both gave up 40 week support. Perhaps some of the money will be rotated back into some growth names. Thats a big if. Tread carefully out there.

Stocks near 200 day support include DAR 15.15, AEM 68, CDE 27.55, MCP here, DECK 85.50, UA 66, COST 76, FAST 31.75, ROST 72, SCSS 13.15, SBUX 35.50, TJX 50.45, TIF 66.75, PM 64.55, TPX 54, CHK 30.05, EP 17.60, OKE 65, AMT 51.70, MTZ 18.50, GSK 40.55, CRS 46. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were MCP UA ANF DSW FOSL AXP CBOE CHK AET VPHM. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are AXP 46.80, EL 92.25, CHKP 51.10, AET 37.50, UNH 44.75, AVGO 31.70. Stocks that lost 40 week support Friday were K UN NKE GPC M JWN PENN IBM MHP BAX HS GDI B. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ATW 41.75, TDC 50.25, BAX 54.25, CBI 36. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were PETM SOHU VMW.

Stocks near 50 day support are MOS 68, SLW 37.70, AG 27.05, KO 68.20, GIS 37, IACI 38.05, SWI 23.30, AMZN 207.50, AN 37.75, CVS 35.65, COST 78, DLTR 68, DPZ 26.05, WFM 62.75, RAI 36.10, MA 316, CVI 26, EQT 57, RRC 60.50, CERN 62.10, JAZZ 28, QCOR 28.50, WCN 32.55, AKRX 7.55. Stocks that can be bought as they reatke their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are LULU 57.30, CLH 52.75, MXIM 23.50. TSCO retook its 50 day MA Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AGCO 44, CROX 27.10, ANN 24.40, LTD 37.05, VLO 23, IRM 32.50, CPHD 34, AVGO 33.10, MCHP 33. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were LTD VLO NLSN AVGO. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are RL 131.50, BBBY 55.75, ABV 32, V 85.70, COG 69, PCLN 515.50. Stocks that lost 50 day support Friday were BIDU SBUX PCP FTI HFC EXPE WYNN MTZ SOHU CPHD WPI BRCM CREE.

Good luck. Go JETS. Pray for the 9/11 victims and families.

The author owns WNR CBOE.

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