Saturday, November 20, 2010

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets with all their gyrating this week basically closed UNCH. Friday brought news from China that they were raising bank reserve requirements for the fifth time this year. Indexes shrugged off that news to settle with small gains near their highs of the day. Retail performed very well with ANN HIBB FL breaking out on earnings reports. CRM MRVL also screamed higher on their own earnings as well. New 52 week highs on the Nasdaq and NYSE were 170, compared with 35 52 week lows. HPQ has earnings Monday.

As markets digest their recent run up stocks are consolidating before deciding on their new direction. Most have tried to rebound off their MAs, while some other are now offering specific buy points. 3 week tight patterns have been established on HES @72.90, FDO @49.94, JCI @37.65, UNP @92.81. Stocks with flat base buy points are: CHRW @73.42, MCD @80.00, HAS @48.88, AGP @44.95. TAP has a 50.55 buy point in a cup with handle base. CAKE has a 30.85 buy point in a cup without handle. MRVL has a 21.10 buy point in a double bottom with handle pattern.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: IPI @30, DE @75, RIG @65, AA @12.75, ORCL @28, JOYG @72, HS @26.50, AMP @50.50, FOE @13.50. Just to demonstrate how important the 50 day MA is here are some more examples of stocks that found 50 day support this week. WYNN @100, CVX @83, TIBX @18, AAPL @295, TDC @38, APKT @38, AMT @51, CHRW @70, SWC @18, YUM @48, NKE @80, SIAL @62, PM @57.50, BEAV @33.50.

CNI can be bought thru 65.25 and CTSH thru 66 as both try to retake their 50 day MAs. SWN can be bought thru 50 and X thru 50 as they both try to reclaim their 200 day MAs. EGO has found support at its 200 day MA @16.50 and SNDK has found support at its 50 and 200 day this week. It can be bought here with a sell stop under 38.

SOA under going huge accumulation after a recent breakout from a cup base. Great action. ETFs on their MAs are EWA at its 50 day here, XLF back to its 50/200 day. Looks shaky here, but let the market confirm the move either way. WLT screamed thru par Friday, something we predicted as it hugged its 50/200 day MA this summer. Breakout thru par looks solid. FCX mirrors the WLT thru par action.

AAPL GOOG both finished lower on the day. QSFT can be shorted under 24.75, its 50 day MA.

Portfolio changes are long ARMH @18.35 as it retook its 50 day MA in good volume. In the rapidly improving semiconductor sector as well.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL NVDA BUD ARMH.

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