Thursday, November 24, 2011

Friday Game Plan

Markets were pounded Wednesday ahead of a Thanksgiving holiday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both fell for the 6th consecutive day, indeed a rarity. Volume decreased ahead of that half day Friday. News from both Europe and China weighed heavily. Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, failed to sell 1/3 of their bonds at auction. Chinese PMI fell below the imperative 50 (signaling growth), for the first time in two years. The greenback climbed over 1% on this news and hit commodities hard. X fell 7.5%, CLF 6%, NUE 5%. You get the picture. QCOM a recent earnings standout plunged almost 5% Wednesday surrendering both 10/40 week support in the process. This is certainly not a time to be a hero, and traders should adjust their position sizes to be prudent in this environment. It is a good time however to study and see what is demonstrating solid relative strength. These can be the first to jump out of the gates once the benchmarks can find some footing. It could be awhile but obviously no one has a crystal ball. Stocks that have RS lines at new highs ahead of actual stock price moves into new high ground are FAST SBH VRSK. Stocks nearing previous buy points are HUM, retreating to its prior 80.74 double bottom buy point it took out on Halloween. EL actually bounced off its 106.52 double bottom buy point on Wednesday on a horrible tape, which it gapped out from on 11/3. Some retail gave back little ground Wednesday as well were DECK UA VFC.

Stocks that can shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stop spots are COH 58.10, CMG 293, LTD 37.80, WFM 62.70, ATHN 50, FFIV 97, WPI 63.60. Stocks that lost 40 week support Wednesday were BEAV TIF QCOM DEO CNI UNP JKHY HRL CBOE NBL SM. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are TIF 70, VMW 91.50, HSY 56.40, AMGN 55.70, CPHD 32.80, MAKO 30, DFS 24, ABX 49.10. AMGN met 40 week resistance Wednesday.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are DG 38.50, ROST 84, TJX 58.05, FDX 76, MA 340, PAY 39, ARW 32.50. Stocks that lost 10 week support Wednesday were PAQ QCOM DEO TRN UPS IBM JNPR ADSK INFA JKHY RHT IP SCCO PPG APC COP CRZO RRC CBS NUS NUE DHR. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are NKE 91.60, BBBY 60, DLTR 78, ULTA 68.75, IBM 181, V 91.25. UA MDRX ALXN all met 10 week resistance Wednesday.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support include HXL 21.10, BBBY 55.15, COST 79, HD 35.55, INTC 21.95, KLAC 42.10, BUD 56.60, AAPL 363, FTNT 21.50, GIS 37.80, CELG 59.10, ADS 90.75, CLR 61.80, FTI 44. Stocks that found 40 week support Wednesday were COH DKS FL KLAC ABV TIBX (now down 6 days in a row), CPO RAX CBI URI CLR. JBHT can be bought with a buy stop above 200 day resistance at 43.15.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support include DPZ 30, FAST 36.75, M 29, MCD 90.50, ORLY 72, SBH 18.25, SCSS 18, SBUX 41, WMT 55.15, SIMO 15.50, CNI 73.20, NSC 69, CTXS 64, PMTC 18.25, RAX 38.75, JEC 37.05, HUM 79, CAT 86, JOYG 78.40, PH 74.25, CXO 86.75, CJES 18.30, COG 72.50, EOG 87.50, EXXI 26.95, KEG 12, NBL 84, OXY 86. Stocks that found 10 week support Wednesday were BEAV TGI WSM NVLS SGI EMR HON EFX FMC INT. UA can be bought with a buy stop above 77.30, 10 week resistance.

Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving.

The author owns FE. We bought at the close Wednesday at 41.90. Its a "safe" utility play which lost 5.5% so far this week and the XLU found 40 week support Wednesday. Tight stop at Wednesdays low.

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