Sunday, April 3, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets Friday started nicely after a positive jobs report (216K private sector jobs were created), but then surrendered about half of their gains by the close. Volume rose on the Nasdaq but fell on the S&P 500. For the week the Nasdaq was up 1.7%, and the S&P 500 up 1.4%. The S&P 600 outperformed for the week with a 2.7% gain. Maybe small cap leadership is about to emerge? On the weekly chart the S&P 500 is forming a cup with handle pattern with a buy point just over 1344. The Nasdaq also is developing that pattern as well with a buy point just over 2840. The continuous stream of leading stocks breaking out, and others setting up buy points has for the time being stamped out the correction phase the market needed. Friday a number of leaders broke out including UA, from a 70.79 flat base buy point. JOYG from a 100.68 cup base buy point. DE HS MWV all broke out Friday in healthy volume. The concerns the market has is in its general AAPL, which lost its 50 day MA Friday. It has struggled with its 50 day moving average ever since closing below it on 3/15. Add to that the chip space weakness, (SMH has not been able to reclaim its 50 day MA after trying almost everyday last week) and maybe it has to be interpreted that the Nasdaq rolls along without AAPL and the semiconductors. SCHN reports after the close Monday and not much to speak of on the economic front.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup bases TEN 46.91, MTL 34.73, RS 60.05, DOV 68.17, HES 87.50, WLT 140.06, WNR 18.38, MCP 62.90, FWLT 39.85, CMG 275.10, CE 45.52, DD 56.29, ABV 32.10, INTU 54.78, UNP 99.60, KSU 57.08, BBD 22.64, WDR 42.30, COF 53.08, WBC 65.63, CMCSA 26.01. Double bottom bases are CMI 114.40, TRW 60.40, ADI 41.09, CAVM 46.08, FCS 19.60, FCX 57.74, RIO 71.80, ETN 56.31, BLL 36.54, AGU 97.98, MON 74.53, SQM 58.01, AMZN 191.50, ORLY 59.45, TIF 65.29, EXPD 55.21, IBN 51.61, QLIK 27.30. Flat bases are MMC 31.18, BWA 81.17, CXO 110.99, OXY 107.66, ATW 46.64, RL 128.66, EMC 27.57, AMP 65.22, OMC 51.35, BMC 51.13, RJF 39.78. Cup with handles are ATI 69.85, SLB 95.74, ADM 38.12. 3 week tight pattern is WY 25.25. LYB 41.22 square box base. Plenty of set up buy points here. Bullish indeed.

Stocks that hit all time highs Friday were CBE CAT JOYG PH ROK SM BHP UA TSCO ROC BIDU. Stocks near "par" or 100, quite often continue to power ahead once it crosses that triple digit price level. So it bears to keep a close eye on stocks near that 100 handle. They include PH ROK DVN NBL SLB BHP CLF DE FOSL EL PPG UNP. Stocks which have recently risen above par are JOYG PXD OXY OPEN EMN PX.

Stocks which can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are ALV 75.25, F 15.55, MXIM 26.50, TCK 56.50, VALE 34.10, SWC 23.55, EMR 59.60, COH 54.50, MOS 82.60, GOOG 602, EBAY 32.30, LVS 44.65, GR 88, PMTC 23.15. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were WFT AMP AMTD TROW AMT IVZ CHRW EXPD STT BEAV WCRX. Stocks near 50 day support and their prices are PAG 19.25, ALTR 41, LRCX 54, MCHP 37, GSM 21.25, A 43.70, DHR 50, VSH 17.30, PLL 54.50, APC 79.75, BHI 69, CHK 32, COP 75, DVN 88.50, XOM 83, HAL 46, MDR 23.20, NOV 77.70, NBL 91, SU 43.75, VLO 28, DNR 22.50, WMB 29, AA 16.85, ABX 50, PAAS 36, TPX 47.50, DKS 38, PLCM 47.75, TDC 48, POT 58.50, AAP 64, BBBY 48, MCD 75, JWN 44, ROST 70, YUM 50.15, DIS 42, BX 17.20, SWK 74, ARW 40, TER 17.70, NXPI 28, VSEA 46, HON 56.80, AET 36.30, CBS 22.90. Stocks that found support at their 50 day MAs Friday were ARMH AVGO KLAC RIO EMC SYK JNPR KKR.

Stocks near 200 day support are MGA 46.50, LLTC 32.45, MSCC 19.80, SPRD 15.50, X 50, AVT 30.10, BP 42, JKS 23.90, APH 50, LDK 10.10, SCCO 39.40, RVBD 29, HOT 55.15, LEN 16.90, GLW 19, CRUS 18, SNDK 44. NOC TAP ROVI RIMM FNSR all found 200 day support Friday. MIPS VMW found 200 day resistance Friday. LOGI plunged below its 200 day MA Friday on poor guidance. BRCM lost its 200 day MA Friday. Not a good sign as evidenced by TGT FFIV AKAM. Lose that 200 day and trouble lies ahead. NTAP can be bought over 50, if it can reclaim its 200 day moving average.

Stocks which can be shorted at their 50 day MA CY 21, NVLS 38, SWKS 33.60, TXN 34.85, JBL 21, TEL 35.95, RIG 80.25. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are KLAC 46, TTWO 14.75. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were WU ATML NVLS TXN GR MT AVT RIG SWC SHLD MOS GS QCOM. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were CAM AAPL XLNX APKT.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX TTM RAX.

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