Saturday, March 5, 2011

Weekend Market Thoughts

Markets sold off Friday, but a late day flurry had indexes cut those losses in half. For the week both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed up marginally. Fridays jobs report was greeted in a benign way, but the continuation of oils advance over par is adding concern. Some breakouts are working but more are stalling. Volume on down days has been heavy, while the indexes advance on declining volume. The indexes themsleves continue to find support at their 50 day MAs, and until those trendlines are violated, the markets moves must be respected. The leaders also have shown strong support off their 50 day MAs. AAPL is up $23 in the last 9 days since flexing its muscles near its 50 day on 2/22. NFLX received excellent 50 day support Friday on a weak tape. LULU OPEN CMG all have been stubborn about holding their 50 day MAs this week as well. Keep an eye on the VXX and SDS (complacency and inverse index ETFs) this week to see if they can break above their 50 day MAs. That can be a potential negative.The economic calendar is light Monday, and CIEN reports before the open and URBN after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points are: 3 week tight patterns are NBR 28.90, OKE 65.18, JNPR 45.08, OIH 166.08 (oil ETF), XOM 78.33, PX 100.02, HS 38.85. Double bottoms are BUD 59.08, BBD 20.89, EWZ 79.19 (Brazil ETF). Cup bases are ACI 36.60, NKE 92.59, RES 22.68. CVX 104.73 in a saucer base dating back 3 years, which would also be an all time high. ROST 72.96 in a 4 week tight patter. Flat bases are CTSH 77.84, CLW 23.53, APH 59.01. URI 33.73 in a cup with handle pattern. Recent breakouts still holding above buy points are XLNX above its 34.22 4 weeks tight base. KLAC above its 50.08 cup with handle buy point. WAT well past its 81.10 cup base buy point it broke out of on 2/18, and was up 3% Friday on a weak tape.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and the buy stop spots are PUDA 12.80, VALE 35.20, ORLY 57.50, UNP 96.25, TTM 26.60. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were TEL WLT MON SINA. Stocks near their 50 day MAs are ARMH 26.50, ADI 39.10, ATML here, AVGO 30.50, CAVM 42, MXIM 26, MCHP 36.50, SWKS 33, TXN 34.50, ATI 62.25, RS 54, DHR 48.50, JBL 21, ATU 27.90, CAT 98, CBE 62, DOV 62, JOYG 91, APC 78, BP 47, HAL 43, HES 81.75, SLB 88, BHP 95, GFI 17, LOGI 19, AGCO 53, DE 90, LLL 79.25, RTN 50.10, RAX 34.50, LULU 73, EBAY 31, MCD 75, JWN 43.20, PETM 40.50, WAG 41.30, DD 52, DOW 36.10, LYB 36.25, PPG 85.75, AMP 61.25, ACN 51, ADP 48.95, IBM 157, CHKP 47.50, INFA 46, VRSN 34.30, KSU 51.75, JPM 45.10, ARW 38, GE 19.85, RJF 36, WY 22.75, RIMM 64, ETN 53.40, BLL here, LAZ 43, AMT 52.10, EMR 59, TJX 48, MWV 28.30, POT 58, CRZO 34.20. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were TRW AA ANN NFLX P=ORCL JPM EMR NWL.

Stocks near 200 day support are F 14.10, BRCM 39, MIPS 10.50, JRCC 19.10, SWN 36.90, WFT 18.50, AEM 68.50, PVH 58, NTAP 48.50, CCL 39.50, MAR 37, HOT 54, INFY 66, RHT 39, EXPD 47, VMW 81, CHRW 69.50, FDX 86.25, UPS 68, BAC 13.50, GS 155, STT 41.35, HXL 18, BEAV 33, TTM 24.80. HPQ can be shorted if 200 day resistance holds at 44. TGT TAP continue to trade woefully under their 200 day MAs. BUD was up nicely this week post earnings and continued that action Friday. TAP was lower. Perhaps an alcoholic pair trade. Long BUD, short TAP.

AGU EMN PX NBL all nearing par. CXO continues to hold nicley above par. CXO WLL CLR all almost entirely domestic oil and gas producers have outperformed their multi national integrated brethen. These charts have been strong well before the Jasmine Revolution was conceived. Perhaps institutions are betting on domestic drilling reform here at home. Im not holding my breath, but with oil surging you never know. Lookiing on weekly charts you can see long saucer like patterns forming on energy names DVN COP NBL. They are all building the right sides of their bases and warrant inclusion on your watchlists.

Gap ups still holding strong are EL RL FNSR TBL MET WMB MMC APKT. Relative strength was exhibited by JCI A WAT BTU ARUN CMG RVBD JDSU Friday on a weak tape. Again take notice of that bullish action.

Stocks showing relative weakness Friday were FCX GOOG. TKR AVT PH JKS RIO MS all lost their 50 day MAs Friday. Stocks that met 50 day resistance on Friday were they could be shorted were BBBY CE ABV ADSK UPS XHB (homebuilder ETF). Sell stops can be placed on the following stocks if they lose their 50 day lines. WSM 34.75, FISV 61, NSC 63.90, LDK 12.30, COF 47.50, CY 20.50. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are TEN 42, LLTC 35, MSCC 23, MTL 31.60, X 58, AVT 35, PH 89, NOC 68, COST 73, SOA 24, HOT 61.50, GR 90.

Good luck.

The author is flat.

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