Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Wednesday Recap

Obama better get off the golf course and wake up his plunge protection team. His reelection hopes are melting faster than the bids getting hit on the Nasdaq. Speaking of tech, today we had two generals AAPL IBM slaughtered. Both dove below their 50 day MAs in big volume, courtesy of downgrades. But the writing has been on the wall surrounding tech. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost nearly 2% today. They are now both in the red for the year. Volume was heavy. FDX which releases earnings tomorrow lost its critical 200 day MA. ETFs SDS VXX which we have been keeping a hawk eye on lately have broken free from long downtrends. Home starts plummeting, Japan fears, Gaddafi rolling, Bahrain heating up. It seems like the perfect storm of horrible events. There seems like there is a lot of air between MAs on the major indexes. Could they be headed for 200 day support? Who knows but it certainly looks like it. This is certainly a traders market right now, and breakouts are non existent. Play the MAs. If they hold start a small position. If not you can short. Can we get a dead cat bounce? Of course. But the trend is solidly lower now. Tomorrow NKE LULU FDX report, and we learn of initial jobless claims, industrial production and CPI.

Stocks near 50 day MAs are ALTR 40, DHR 49, CAT 99, PLL 53, ROK 82.25, CXO 98, BHI 66, BEXP 31, CAM 56, CVX 97.50, COP 73.20, HOC 51.40, MDR 22.10, PTEN 24.30, PBR 38, CLR 63.50, RDC 37.90, VLO 26.85, WLL 62, HP 58, ATW 41.60, DNR 21.20, WMB 28, NBR 25.50, SLW 36.20, RL 117, JNPR 40.50, OPEN 85, TDC 46.85, RAX 35.75, SBUX 33.10, YUM 49.60, LYB 37, PM 59.90, TIBX 23.10, CSX 72, TTWO 14.50, ARBA 28.10, GGC 29, CBG 24, CBS 21.65, DTV 43.85. Stocks that found 50 day support today were PAG GSM DHR WAT CAT COP NOV NBL SU SUN TJX RVBD TEX ROST CNI ADTN CCK. ALTR reclaimed its 50 day today on a horrendous tape.

Stocks near 200 day support are BAC 13.50, ALV 67.25, MGA 46, ATML 9.40, MXIM 21.20, MIPS 10.60, MSCC 19.40, MTL 25.85, AVT 29.75, TEL 31.10, BP 41, WFT 18.95, BHP 81, ABX 47.50, GFI 15.60, WCRX 21.20, GR 80, AMAT 13, LAZ 36.40, JPM 41, PAAS 31.50, SCCO 38.75, BLL 31.80, EMR 53.75, COH 47.20, PVH 58, NWL 17.45, MON 61, SQM 48, NOC 62.20, BBBY 43.80, EBAY 26.90, JWN 39, ORLY 54, TIF 52, CE 35, IVZ 22, TTM 25, MOLX 22, RIMM 56.15, STT 41.75, RCL 26.50, HOT 54.40, ABV 25.50, FISV 55, TROW 56.10, ADSK 54.50, INTU 45, ORCL 27.90, PMTC 20.50, ROVI 51, CRM 119, CTXS 62, CHRW 70, UNP 85.50, UPS 68.50. Stocks that found 200 day support today were F BRCM UPL RIO VALE LOGI FFIV GOOG MAR MS BEAV FNSR AMT. Stocks that lost their 200 day MA today were LLTC MT MCD LVS INFY EXPD FDX GS and ETFs EZA EWZ FXI EWA. CCL can be shorted at 200 day resistance at 39.50. Stocks falling further below their 200 day, a very bearish signal, are AEM HPQ BUD TAP VMW SNDK.

Stocks showing relative strength today among the carnage were PAY (another all time high), CAT BTU RRC CHK SWN ADS (another all time high), WFMI and ETFs KOL USO. WFMI has a 60.70 flat base buy point. A very rare buy point in this environment. ANN has now been up 4 days in a row amongst a terrible tape. Speaking of CAT, I recommend a pairs trade in the machinery sector. CAT which found 50 day support today and finish up, can be paired up against JOYG. JOYG hit 50 day resistance after posting poor earnings recently.

Stocks that look weak and lost their 50 day MAs today were WYNN DD RAI DIS BX KKR RJF CMCSA WDR CRUS ERJ AET DIS SPN OIS APH EMC GD LLL RTN EL WYN AVGO KLAC ATI NUE A DVN XOM HAL and ETFs OIH EWC. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were CRZO DECK NKE LTD OMC KSU IR FCS LRCX RS JOYG APC OXY. Stocks which were previously in beautiful long term uptrends and now looked to have completely reversed those trends are TXN XOM RIG EMR AAPL COST ADP AMP HON AMTD. EXXI had a negative outside reversal day today. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are JCI 40, SOA 23.90, TEN 42, FCS 18, SWKS 33.50, TKR 49.80, JBL 21, ATU 28, PH 89, HES 82, SPN 36.15, OIS 69, SWC 22, AGCO 53, GD 75, DE 90.75. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ANF 53, URI 28.50, SWK 71.75, WY 23.05, CHKP 47, VRSN 34.50, NSC 63.75, MMC 28.60, SYK 59.75.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX.


  1. "Home starts plummeting, Japan fears, Gaddafi rolling, Bahrain heating up. It seems like the perfect storm of horrible events."

    Assuming that you are implying that this perfect storm of events has led to the plunge in stock values across the board, how is this a result of the President? and what do you expect him to do? Subsidize the housing market, send billions of dollars in aid over to Japan, expend billions more by waging two more wars in Libya and Bahrain all so that oil will fall back below $100 a barrel? And at what expense, so politically conservative economists can blame reckless government spending, budget deficits and booming federal debt the next time the markets take a hit?

    Sorry for the heat man, I just don't see the correlation between the international events that are taking place which you explicitly linked to the plunge in the Markets as of late and, President Obama.

  2. You letting your emotions take over. First of all never implied any of the geopolitical events occurring are the fault of the president. Was making a joke about the plunge protection team which has legendary since President Bush days. The market started weakening well before all this mess proceeded. So I make no reference between President Obama and the plunging stock market. I used his name in the first sentence briefly then never again. I am a pure stock man although I do admit I am rarely in favor of any of his policies. I never explicitly link any stock moves to any one factor or event. Markets are always looking forward.