Monday, November 29, 2010

Monday Monday

Markets started very poorly as Europe lagged with the official announcement of Irelands bailout package. In the last 2 hours of the session markets climbed off their lows. Leading stocks outperformed as they should. AMZN NFLX were among the best. Energy, retail were among the best sectors. Volume was below average. SPY themselves bounced right off their 50 day MA. A good sign.

Stocks sporting specific buy points are: TDC @42.08 a flat base. SNDK @46.70, a double bottom base. XOM @72.00, VECO @46.35 both double bottoms with handles. CPX @29.23 a 3 weeks tight pattern. As always demand big volume on the breakout. Other buy spots are BTU thru 60, ARBA CIS both @20. Lets buy X thru 50, its 200 day MA. Lets buy CNI thru 65.25, its 50 day MA.

Stocks that are looking for 50 day MA support are: TRW @45, HOT @56, NBL @80, AA @13, CVLT @28.25, VRSN @33, JNPR @32.50, IBM @141, BIDU @105, ARUN @22, QCOM @46, CSX @60, CAT @80, PTEN @19. Stocks that found support at the 50 day MA today to further demonstrate the lines importance were: COP MUR MOS EMN DD BHP FCX SWC AEM MCD YUM SCCO ARMH AMP BEAV PPG BCSI SIAL FOE XLB.

Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: PSA @96, VNO @80, MRX @26, BUD @54, ATHR @32. EGO found support at its 200 day today. CREE crossed above its 200 day today for the second time in 3 days. Tenacious.

Can CMI be the next member of the "par star" group? Stay tuned. ANR looks like its forming a handle in its cup base. It needs 2 more days to form however. Do not jump the gun. Be patient. TBT can be bought @34, its 50 day MA. QSFT can be shorted under 25, its 50 day. We will be looking to reenter FCX at par. Looked very strong today and was one of the first leaders to start heading higher even when the market was still near its lows early in the session.

Good luck.

The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Sunday Thoughts

Friday was a down day on Wall St. A half day that saw the Dow take the worst of it with a 1% loss. Investors stayed on the sidelines until this week begins with the big players returning. For the week the Dow and S&P feel 1%, but the Nasdaq rose .7%. Steel struggled as retail and tech held up in general. Leaders held up relatively well Friday as stocks such as FFIV CRM CMG RVBD AKAM PNRA DECK all finished higher.

Stocks that have specific buy points are: APA @110.81, APC 67.78, DVN @73.35 all cup with handles patterns. Flat bases show up on SUN @40.73, CHKP @44.57, AAPL @322.30, HAS @48.88. Three week tight patterns show up with CPX @29.23, BLL @66.36. Four weeks tight patterns have formed on HES @72.09, A @37.65.

Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru MAs are: RADS thru 18.60, CNI thru 65.25, INFY thru 68. All those previously mentioned were their 50 day MAs. Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru their 200 day MAs are: X thru 50, GPS thru 21.20 as it breaks from recent consolidation near its 200 day MA. As always big volume must be accompanied with the price action.

Other stocks with buy points that can be bought are BTU thru 60, TIBX thru 20.28, and SOA as it retreats to 21.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MA are: CBI @26, DE @75, WYNN @102, ARMH @18, TRMB @36, BEAV @34, RAI @31, NTGR @30, SIAL @62, BMC @43, KBR @26, FOE @13.75, COP @60, DOW @30, MUR @64, RIG @65, AA @12.80, EMN @77, CE @35, GOOG @580, BIDU @105, PM @58, APH @50, CHRW @71, QCOM @45, AMT here, UNP @86, BHP @82, ABX @48, FCX @95, AEM @75, CAT @80, JOYG @73, YUM @49, NKE @82, KMX @30, SCCO @41, BID @40.

Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: CVX @78, SU @32, UPL @45, CNX @40, VNO @80, BUD @54, NVDA @12.90, EGO @16.50, ATHR @32.

ETFs that should find support at their MAs are: TBT @34, MOO @49.50, XLB @34.50 all their 50 day MAs. FXI @42 is its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted are: QSFT below 25, RIO below 64. Both their 50 day MAs. INTU if it rebounds to its 50 day MA @47 can be shorted.

Lets see if the mythical, legendary Plunge Protection Team can keep GM stock price above the offering @33. Looks like they are having a heck of a time!!

Good luck.

The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Happy Turkey Day

Markets came back back nicely as both retail and chip sectors caught nice bids. Leading stocks again outpaced the indexes, although in lighter volume. That is to be expected the day before Thanksgiving. The major indexes are continuing to find support at their 50 day MAs. Markets had to digest 3 economic reports before the open and they came in mixed. Durable goods missed the forecast, personal income rose and initial jobless claims were much better than expected.

Stocks that remain near buy points are: VECO @46.35, double bottom with handle and MCD @80.00, a flat base. SNDK now has a 46.70 buy point in a double bottom pattern. Although premature CREE which can be bought here as it surged past its 200 day MA, as long as it stays above that line. A potential add on buy point would be 76.24 in a double bottom base.

Stocks that can be bought as they break thru their MAs are: RADS thru 18.65 and CNI thru 65, both their 50 day MAs. VLTR thru 23.25 and GPS thru 21.20, both their 200 day MAs. ARBA has had two big volume moves thru 20 this week, to achieve 5 yr highs. It can be bought as long as it holds above 19, its 50 day. PSA VNO have both risen smartly off their 200 day MAs. BCSI ATHR exhibit long cup bases above both their 50 and 200 day MAs. I like both right here as long as those lines hold. ADSK PETM more recent examples of bad earnings reactions only to have their stock decline halted at their 50 day MAs. I also like BTU if it can break thru recent consolidation @60.

Keep an eye on GES. Nice earnings gap up Wednesday. If it can hold that here for 2-3 days consider buying. Make sure it holds 48. ETFs garnering attention are: JJC back to its 50 day. TBT looking to sniff out its 200 day MA @39. See how it reacts there. KOL XLE MOO have best looking commodity related ETFs to me.

OPEN had noticeable weakness on a strong tape Wednesday. An outside reversal day on 3X normal volume after hitting an all time high. I say all time high as it only came public in 5/09, but a rest looks well needed. DTV VZ both finished in the meekly on a strong day. Both continue to hover beneath their 50 day MAs in big volume. Until they can recapture that MA stay clear, or even short. And even in strong groups laggards can continue to disappoint. Case in point RBCN. A semi that has struggled evr since it lost its 50 day MA on 8/5 of this year.

Good luck. And above all Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy your family and friends and let them know just how thankful you are.

The author owns CAKE ARMH NVDA.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Tuesday After Market

Markets suffered a distribution day Tuesday. Indexes sold off in heavy volume and leaders struggled. Ongoing Eurozone concerns and a skirmish between the two Koreas led to the steep decline. SPY did manage to close right on its 50 day MA. Steel and home related stocks were weak, while retail somewhat bucked the trend.

SUN is sporting a 40.73 buy point in a flat base. Stock finished up on a terrible tape. Other leading stocks to finish in the black were RVBD OPEN JWN UA BKI DECK ALTR. Stocks that perform well on a horrible tape warrant a close look if the market can catch a bid.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: APA @102, APC @60, COP @59.50, DOW @30, MUR @64, NBL @79, RIG @65 ("golden cross"), TCK @45, AA @12.75, CRZO @25, TIBX @18.25, GOOG @570, JNPR @32, CHRW @71, IBM @140, BIDU @103, ARUN @21.50, BLL @62, CSX @59, UNP @86, BHP @82, FCX @95, RIO @64, CAT @80, JOYG @72, HS @26.50, MCD @77, YUM @49, SCCO @40, RAI @31, BMC @38, WYNN @100. CVLT IPI TAP all bounced off their 50 day MA today on a terrible tape and finished on their highs of the day.

Stocks that should find support at their 200 day MA are: CNI @61, FDX @84, SWK @58, PFE @16.50, MRX @26, NVDA @13, EGO @16.50.

WYNN will be added to our "par stars index". Aslong as it holds above 100. FCX did close below that number today, but WLT literally bounced right off 100 and closed in the middle of its daily range.

ETFs that are near MAs are MOO which closed right on its 50 day today @49. Needs to hold here. RSX also closed at its 50 day today @34. Commodity nation ETFs EWA EWZ both have now fallen below their 50 day MA in heavy volume. Not a good sign. Dr. Copper ETF JJC lost its 50 day today, athough it is illiquid. FXI 200 day MA is 42.

VZ DTV both failing at their 50 day MAs. VZ having decent AAPL related news and not pushing higher not a good sign. RIMM failing at its 200 day MA.

TSLA strong as a bull. Continues to plow ahead on an apparent 2 week long short squeeze. I dont want to hear about the GM Volt which apparently gets 40 miles to the "gallon" on a plug in charge. TSLA seems to be doing it without government support. At least for now I give Elon Musk two thumbs up.

Portfolio changes include selling BUD ORCL as they broke below their 50 day MAs. May revisit but that was the catalyst that got me in.

Good luck.

The author owns CAKE NVDA ARMH.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Monday Monday

Stocks showed some resilience today finishing well off the lows of the day. Leading stocks especially took charge. AMZN NFLX both high beta names that have enjoyed 50 day MA support were among the rulers of the day. When leading stocks outperform the indexes that usually is a very good sign. The Nasdaq was the only major index to finish in the black. Volume was weak today, and retail, semis and networks were among the best sectors of the day.

Stocks showing specific buy points are: VECO @46.35 and NETL @32.30, both double bottom with handle bases. APA @110.83 and NLC @30.60, both 3 week tight patterns. CMI @96.73 and GPC @48.62, both flat base patterns. BBY @45.51 a cup with handle base. And remember the buy points that are very close we discussed over the weekend. CHRW @73.23 and MCD @80.00, both flat bases. JWN @42.96 a double bottom with handle pattern.

Stocks that should provide 50 day support and those levels are: RIG @65, AA @12.75, HS @26.50, IBN here, AMP @50, RAI @31, PMTC @20.50. More stocks that have found support at their 50 day MA are: WYNN @100, CVX @83, INFA @38, TIBX @18, ORCL @28, PX @91, ARUN @21, APKT @38, FOE @14, VIT @33.50.

My new so called "par stars" are: WLT WLL FCX. All these are now above 100 and as long as they remain above that triple digit they should be held long. UNP will be the next one to join that club is my prediction.

Stocks that are near their 200 day MA are: RIMM currently in a downtrend right here. VNO PSA, both real estate stocks have found support at their 200 day. JCG is looking to challenge its 200 day @39. If it can get past their put in a buy stop above 39. SWN can be bought above 39, its 200 day MA. ATHR can be bought here as its 200 day now looks like solid support. MRX @26 and EGO @16 should enjoy support there at the 200 day.

Stocks that have enjoyed strong gap ups and still looking powerful are: RVBD WFMI FFIV COH CRM BRCM FO XXIA GPC RL FL CMG MXIM DKS. Gap up are very bullish signs and should be purchased if the gap up holds for 3 days after the gap up has occurred.

Changes in the portfolio today were buying CAKE thru 30.85 in a cup base.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL CAKE NVDA BUD ARMH.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets with all their gyrating this week basically closed UNCH. Friday brought news from China that they were raising bank reserve requirements for the fifth time this year. Indexes shrugged off that news to settle with small gains near their highs of the day. Retail performed very well with ANN HIBB FL breaking out on earnings reports. CRM MRVL also screamed higher on their own earnings as well. New 52 week highs on the Nasdaq and NYSE were 170, compared with 35 52 week lows. HPQ has earnings Monday.

As markets digest their recent run up stocks are consolidating before deciding on their new direction. Most have tried to rebound off their MAs, while some other are now offering specific buy points. 3 week tight patterns have been established on HES @72.90, FDO @49.94, JCI @37.65, UNP @92.81. Stocks with flat base buy points are: CHRW @73.42, MCD @80.00, HAS @48.88, AGP @44.95. TAP has a 50.55 buy point in a cup with handle base. CAKE has a 30.85 buy point in a cup without handle. MRVL has a 21.10 buy point in a double bottom with handle pattern.

Stocks that should find support at their 50 day MAs are: IPI @30, DE @75, RIG @65, AA @12.75, ORCL @28, JOYG @72, HS @26.50, AMP @50.50, FOE @13.50. Just to demonstrate how important the 50 day MA is here are some more examples of stocks that found 50 day support this week. WYNN @100, CVX @83, TIBX @18, AAPL @295, TDC @38, APKT @38, AMT @51, CHRW @70, SWC @18, YUM @48, NKE @80, SIAL @62, PM @57.50, BEAV @33.50.

CNI can be bought thru 65.25 and CTSH thru 66 as both try to retake their 50 day MAs. SWN can be bought thru 50 and X thru 50 as they both try to reclaim their 200 day MAs. EGO has found support at its 200 day MA @16.50 and SNDK has found support at its 50 and 200 day this week. It can be bought here with a sell stop under 38.

SOA under going huge accumulation after a recent breakout from a cup base. Great action. ETFs on their MAs are EWA at its 50 day here, XLF back to its 50/200 day. Looks shaky here, but let the market confirm the move either way. WLT screamed thru par Friday, something we predicted as it hugged its 50/200 day MA this summer. Breakout thru par looks solid. FCX mirrors the WLT thru par action.

AAPL GOOG both finished lower on the day. QSFT can be shorted under 24.75, its 50 day MA.

Portfolio changes are long ARMH @18.35 as it retook its 50 day MA in good volume. In the rapidly improving semiconductor sector as well.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL NVDA BUD ARMH.

Friday, November 19, 2010

AM Meandering

Markets fought back to recapture most of the weeks losses Thursday. Gains were broad and leaders were strong. Optimism over the GM IPO and a strong Philly Fed number helped the markets enjoy healthy gains. Ireland seen to be open to an economic package also helped. Leading stocks that had earnings and continued to enjoy robust gains were ARUN LTD NTAP.

Stocks that can be bought if they pass thru their 50 and 200 day MAs are: SMG thru 52.25, AKAM thru 49.50, ARMH thru 18.25. Those are all their 50 day MA. Stocks that can be bought as they move thru their 200 day MAs are: RRC thru 43.50, SWN thru 38.50, GPS thru 21.20.

Both MCO XRX found 50 day support today. PETM had earnings and looks headed for its 50 day MA @36. Watch to see how that stock performs there. Another example of a stock plunging post earnings to find support at its 50 day MA is SPRD. It ended up closing strong on its highs of the day.

GS is now sporting a 171.71 buy point in a cup with handle pattern. OIH has a 103.38 buy point in a cup with handle pattern. Recent ETFs that have found 50 day support include JJC RSX MOO SPY.

COH was a standout on an otherwise relatively weak retail tape. Something to keep an eye on. RIMM can be shorted if it fails to break above its 200 day MA @59.

Portfolio changes include buying NVDA @13.20 as it enjoys 200 day support post earnings and BUD @60.25 as it passed back thru its 50 day MA.

Good luck.

The author owns ORCL BUD NVDA.