Saturday, October 1, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets closed out a miserable 3Q Friday in true bear market form. They have not yet met the classical defintion, but they are getting there as quickly as indexes are slumping. The S&P 500 is now more than 17% off its 52 week high. It was basically UNCH, this week, and its down 10% year to date. The Nazz is more than 16% off its 52 week high, and fell 2.7% this week. Markets are now down for 5 consecutive months. The Nazz net 50 day resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The S&P 500 200 day MA, a good long term gauge of market health and direction is now starting to slope downward. Not a good sign. Technicians will be keeping a close eye on the August lows next week. They are 1101 on the S&P, and 2331 on the Nazz. A look at some more leaders losing key 50 day support this week, were 2 of the market generals. MA AAPL lost their critical support lines. More talk of recession heated up Friday, but as always stocks themselves are the best indicators. The sector which is forecasting recession loudly this week was retail. Of course we know the consumer accounts for 2/3rds of GDP. Weekly losses included TIF FOSL CROX all down 14%. LULU 13%, RL 11%. Big cap Nazz stocks whose weekly losses were large included WYNN down 17%, PCLN BIDU 13%, GMCR 11%. 52 week lows in the energy sector include APA HAL NOV BTU RIG DD. More evidence of global slowdown fears. Some areas that have been escaping, and they are few, are the dollar and some real defensive names. HSY ROST finished higher on a horrible tape Friday. NEM finished higher Friday as well, as it continues to demonstrate leadership in the gold mining group, and enjoys repeated 50 day support. Follow the leaders. UUP has blasted away from its 200 day MA, and looks healthy. SDS found repeated 50 day support this week as well. Earnings for Monday are quiet.

Stocks near 50 day support include NEM 61, HANS 83.10, DECK 92, VFC 116, IACI 39, AMZN 212, BBBY 56.05, DPZ 26.75, FAST 33, MCD 87.50, ORLY 64.05, RAI 36.05, ATHN 58.30, ORCL 28.15, IBM 171.50, BAX 55, WPI 66.40, JBL 16.65, KLAC 37.50, CHD 42, FE 43.50. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are RAX 36.25, CVS 35, EBAY 30.80, GMCR 102, BUD 54, HLF 56, XOM 74, WFC 25.10, CMCSA 21.75, ADP 48.90, MCO 31.60, QCOR 28.75, KSU 53, ARMH 26.80, ADI 32.90, BRCM 34.50. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were CMG EBAY SBUX HLF IFF XOM WFC CHKP TIBX CLH LRCX SMTC TXN. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are TSCO 62.10, WFM 63.80, TDC 51.75, ARBA 27.50, JAZZ 39.75, MXIM 23, MAKO 32.50. Stocks that lost 10 week support Friday were KO K NKE UA PCP IRM PAYX UAN NDAQ HUM LLTC AKRX IT.

Stocks near 200 day support are KO 66.30, CROX 22, NKE 84.50, RL 126.50, LULU 46.75, M 25.80, JWN 45, SBUX 36, PCP 151.50, COG 55, RRC 54.20, CHKP 52, HUM 70.40. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were ABV UNH INTC. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are AN 34, EP 18, EXPE 25.10, ACN 54, HS 37.70, CRS 47. K ANF AN CVI MTX GTLS HS all met 40 week resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are DSW 43.75, PETM 42.05, SCSS 13.70, UNH 45.35. Stocks that lost their 40 week MAs Friday were UA ANF EXPE.

Good luck.

The author is flat. We sold POT CBOE for small losses. Cash is king.

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