Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Monday Recap

Markets did not feel to rosy on Valentines Day. They finished mixed on weaker volume, discontinuing a recent trend in which Mondays are usually very strong. That put me into cash and on the sidelines. Leading stocks did outperform however. NFLX for example bolted ahead leaving many shorts uncomfortable at the dinner table Monday evening. Hopefully they celebrated Valentines Day over the weekend. Energy related names, including solar, were the big winners. After the close Monday A fell slightly, WLT was down about 4%, and FDX sliced its own earnings estimates for this quarter. Tuesday brings retail sales and business inventories. Earnings Tuesday include FOSL before the open and ADI DELL ROVI after the close.

Stocks near specific by points are: Cup with handles X 61.50, ACM 30.08, CVX 98.33, ITW 56.46, RIG 83.32, AGCO 56.28, LDK 14.70. Cup bases are SQM 60.43, TIF 65.86, WAT 81.10, COH 58.65, DECK 87.98. Double bottoms are OVTI 31.37, RHT 46.56, CRM 146.73, PM 60.24. Three week tight patterns are WM 38.68, BHI 70.09. Flat bases are EMN 94.52, APC 80.70. SKS broke out Friday from a 12.32 cup base buy point.

Stocks that can be purchases as they reclaim their 50 day MAs are TTM thru 27.75, IBN thru 47.30, GS thru 168.50, EXPD thru 54.25, FFIV thru 130.25, TC thru 14.30, FCX thru 57.50, ABX thru 50.15, AEM thru 74, TCK thru 60.25, OVTI thru 28.95, MIPS thru 15.25, ALV thru 79.50. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MA Monday were APA ACI VALE VMW RHT. BTU RAI continued to climb higher after piercing their 50 day on Friday. BP found strong 50 day support Monday. Other stocks near their 50 day MA are CMCSA 22.50, AXL 14, GNTX 30.60, MGA 56. IRF 31, MT 37, MTL 31, NBL 86, PBR 36, CLR 60.25, NKE 85.50, BBBY 48.75, MCD 75.50, PETM 40.25, CCL 46, RCL 46, CTSH 74, ADSK 40.50, ALB 56.50, REE 12, GR 90.

Stocks near 200 day MAs are PUDA 10, DLTR 48, ABV 24.75, UPL 44.90. BUD lost its 200 day MA Monday, while TAP continued falling further below its 200 day MA. TGT lost its 200 day again Monday. An ominous sign ahead of retail sales.

Big moves by stocks that made recent gap ups and held for 4 days Monday included XOM CAM. OXY CXO both broke thru par Monday, and keep an eye on PSS PNC which are both creating constructive action building the right side of their bases. Be patient and wait for a proper pattern and buy point to materialize.

Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MA are BRCM 44.80, SCHN 63.50, MUR 72. STT lost its 50 day MA Monday. MSCC MIPS both found 50 day resistance Monday. NFLX just sucking the life out of any irrational shorts in the stock.

Portfolio flat after selling BUD for a small loss as it violated its 200 day. If it can reclaim it we may reenter. FCX took a $2 gain as it approaches its 50 day which has been resistance for some time now and I felt somewhat uneasy about the recent weakness in the stock. LULU which we bought on 2/4 at 74.70 as it broke from a flat base we sold for almost a $10 winner. Retail sales today and the stock looking extended here prompted the move.

Good luck.

The author is flat.

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