Sunday, December 11, 2011

Monday Game Plan

Markets enjoyed a nice up day Friday, but for the week both were higher by less than 1%. They continue to struggle at the 40 week MAs. The markets demeanor would look much better with a push above those lines this week. The lines in the sand for the S&P 500 lies at 1263, less than 1% away, and the Nasdaq's is 2665. The Nasdaq did manage to find support right at its 10 week MA Thursday. Both indexes remain down YTD a small 0.2%. Crazy after the volatility we have noticed this year. I must say I was surprised by pouring over hundreds out charts this weekend, how many are consolidating above their 10 week support lines and forming valid bases. I remain a cautious bull, as some sector rotation has been transpiring quietly here in the last few weeks. Moving up steadily are groups such as transports, chips, retail, while disappearing from top ranks are utilities and alcohol. A look at some of the strengthening groups is in order. IYT finished flat for the week as it, like the indexes do, battle with its 200 day. Put in a buy stop above 90.45 and buy a one way ticket to par. Favorites in the group are TRN JBHT KSU CNI. KSU has been the undisputed leader and it may trade back to its 62.86 cup base buy point it broke out from 10/27. That would also be 10 week support, and remember its absolutely normal for leaders that have broke out to go back and retest that previous buy point. XRT in my opinion, maintains one of the best ETFs charts out there. Still sporting its 55.02 cup with handle buy point. Components within the group are WRC, (which believe it or not is having issues with its 200 day!!), is carving a 54.05 double bottom with handle buy point. Give the handle one more day and perhaps a "speedo" revolution can occur! Dating back to 9/08 on the weekly chart WMT is displaying a 59.50 cup with handle trigger point. Very bullish. WSM has the inverted head and shoulders base on top of its cup with handle buy point of 40.17. NKE VFC both have flat base buy points. VFC 142.60, NKE 97.78. With jobless claims showing some of their best results this week some of the employee equities perked up. PAYX RHI both retook their 200 day MAs this week and RHI now has a valid double bottom buy point of 30.26. Other groups that surfaced while I charted were the smaller auto related stocks. Nice base building and accumulation being exhibited by the likes of SAH LAD PAG ABG. Let us be careful as always and this could be a nice week IF benchmarks break above their 40 week MAs and more leading stocks break out from their trigger points described in the next paragraph.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup with handles CNC 39.17, BEAV 40.14, BA 72.86, CNI 80.54, TYC 48.62, AAP 71.10, SAH 16.32, WMT 59.50, WSM 40.17, INTU 55.53, PXP 37.01, NTGR 38.57, BUD 61.08, MRK 36.35, DGX 59.54, WFC 27.30, MKC 50.19. QCOM 58.07, BYI 39.46, RAX 45.56. Cup base buy points include ABG 22.10, SCSS 22.29, ADP 55.12, ABV 36.40, EFX 40.00, 61.00. Double bottom with handle buy points include DKS 42.21, JOYG 93.94, CBI 42.02, CXO 102.07, NOV 76.15. Flat base buy points are NKE 97.78, DEO 86.10, ABT 55.71, ED 59.99. Cup with high handles are HXL 26.58, RCII 37.47. FE has a 46.20 double bottom buy point and KEX still remains in a 4 week tight pattern with a trigger of 65.56.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stops spots are WRC 52.75, CY 19.25, RTN 46.20, SPR 20.30, FDX 85.60, TRN 30.40, EMR 51.90, MWV 30.25, ARO 17.45, ASNA 30.25, AKAM 29.60, OMC 44.90, TRV 56.50, CAT 98.40, CBE 56.50, PH 81.90, CE 45.80, KEG 15.20, OXY 95.50, TWI 23.25, FISV 59.15, RJF 31.80, DE 81.75. Stocks that retook 40 week support Friday were PMTC COP EXXI KO.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are BA 69.20, KMX 30, CTCT 25.30, ROK 75.55, VAL 35.10, EOG 99.55, XOM 79.05, HP 58.50, AET 40, VAR 62.60. Stocks that found 40 week support today were MENT JOY HP NOV DFS TROW CPO QCOM ABX MON.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are CNI 75.50, KSU 68.26, COST 83.20, LKQX 28.50, SBUX 42, RATE 18, NUAN 24.15, COG 77, BIIB 108, EL 105. Stocks that found 10 week support Friday were COH VFC CY ASNA DKS ACN SAP TIBX ATU APA AAPL NEM.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are DECK 105, DSW 49, CELG 64.10. NUAN BHP PII all retook their 10 week MAs Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ARMH 27.85, AMZN 202, LULU 50.75, TIF 70.40, BIDU 136, CERN here. WRC TRN EMR MWV SAPE PH KEG WDC all met 200 day resistance Friday. You can put a sell stop in at 35 for JAZZ, as it loses 200 day support.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are AVGO 32.45, ALXN 66, HLF 56. RL DECK both met 10 week resistance Friday.

Good luck.

The author owns JEC ROK GIS.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Friday Game Plan

Markets were whipsawed Thursday, as investors were once again disappointed by Euro zone solutions. Volume grew slightly, but the benchmarks closed hard upon their lows for the day. Volume has been muted as of late. Perhaps the Dodd/Frank bill is already taking effect with the smaller pool of traders on the street. Maybe light volume is the new normal. The S&P 500 lost 2.1%, the Nasdaq 2%. Discouraging was the fact that the indexes disregarded some positive domestic news. Jobless claims came in well below the 400K figure. We do not normally follow the Dow, but it closed below the psychological 12000 level today. The Nasdaq finished just under its round number of 2600, but did manage to find 10 week support. Some important groups to focus on were the financials today. XLF finished just above its 10 week MA, as did some of its components JPM GS. GS actually had an inside day even though it closed lower by 5%. Inside days are usually benign as the previous trend normally resumes itself. XRT lost just under 2% today, and its chart does not look all that bad. Looks like its headed for a 200 day test at 51, and still sports a 55.02 cup with handle buy point. Action was mixed in the group with COH DKS finding 10 week support, while LTD RL PII all surrendered it. Ags continued their horrible recent action with MOO down 3.4% and losing 10 week support in the process. DE had an outside day and POT was thrashed 6%, AGU 4%. As we have been discussing the scarcity of break outs from leading stocks has been worrisome. More leading stocks that have broke out are now trading back below their original trigger points as well. MELI INT come to mind. FTI is right back at its 50.30 cup with handle buy point but the volume was strong today. AAPL was a lone bright spot today as it recaptured its 10 week MA, but that might have been a contrarian indicator as it has been soft recently. The wide and loose action of the former 800 lb gorilla is not characteristic of a leading stock. On days like today it is important to recognize where the relative strength resided. Today it came from SIMO NUS DPZ MCD.

Stocks which are near specific buy points, and should be treaded upon very cautiously here, are AAP 71.10. Flat bases are ED 59.99, DG 40.81. Cup base ABV 36.40 and CBI 42.02 double bottom with handle.

Stocks which can be bought at 40 week support are BEAV 36.25, PCP 156, QCOM 54, JBHT 43.15, ACN 55.90, ADP 51.05, PMTC 19.15, CELG 59.75, ABX 49, PLL 52, APC 76, CVX 101.60, EOG 99.75, XOM 79.10, GDI 78. Stocks that found 40 week support today were QCOM CPO JEC TROW JOY NOV PXD NUE ROK.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are ADS 98, BIIB 107.70, NKE 92.90, UA 78, HXL 23.85, ED 58, GNC 25, SBH 19, SCSS 18.75, SBUX 42, INTC 23.50, NVDA 14.60, SO 43.05, CNI 75.05, VMW 94.10, INTU 52, RHT 47.50, HSY 58, XRAY 34.25, EMR 48, DFS 23.65, BBT 22.60, USB 25, NTRS 38, CLF 64.90, FCX 37.50, CE 41.25, COG 76, CRZO 26, DVN 62.40, OXY 90, TCK 35.80, ARW 34, DD 45.75, WERN 23.05, STLD 12.10. Stocks that found 10 week support today were HXL DKS FE SGI TIBX WY JPM GS NEM DOW EMN RRC.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are VFC 132, ADI 34.70, AKAM 25.75, COH 60.60, PAY 40.20, PPG 81.75, BWA 67.60. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were BIDU CMI SU DHR PII RL PCP WFM LTD CTSH NUAN BHP RIO.

Stocks that can be shorted as they meet 10 week resistance are AVGO 32.50, ALXN 66, PII 59. MON met 10 week resistance today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stop spots are JAZZ 35, HLF 52. Stocks that lost 40 week support today were CPHD HON IP PH COP EXXI OXY ARW WERN.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are ARMH 27.95, CERN 61, CHKP 54.50, SWK 67, CPHD 33. ORCL KO PNC all met 40 week resistance today.

Good luck.

The author owns JEC ROK GIS. We covered CERN for a small gain today. Today hurt for sure, and we reduced our long exposure a bit, but the catalyst for getting into the 3 longs we have are still intact and we are basically UNCH on each of them. Of course seeing gains turn to losses hurts as well.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Thursday Game Plan

Markets again displayed some up and down action as usual, but if you saw the closing prices of the averages you would have that it was a quiet day. The S&P 500 again found sturdy resistance at its 40 week MA today. Even if it does take it out like it did 10/27 on robust volume, it quickly retreated back below it. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 did show some positive action intraday, closing in the upper ranges for the day (the Nasdaq fought back nicely, closing 37 handles off its lows for the day). Volume grew from yesterdays levels. Some sectors which displayed some telling action was energy. The XLE continues to clubbed with a 2x4 each times it touches its 40 week MA. Leaders in that group COG FTI looked vulnerable today, although they are still ahead of recent break out points (FTI 50.30 cup w/handle and COG 78.75 double bottom). But then again other leaders in the group are trading very tightly after recent moves upward. They include CXO CLR EOG APC. As the adage goes, as goes energy as goes the markets, so it is important to keep an eye on energy prices. IBM GIS MCD all hit all time highs today, although IBM GIS both broke out from recent bases in soft trade. INTC hit a multi year high today. Stocks building the right side of their bases and warrant inclusion on your watch lists are UPS BUD AMGN CBS. Two names that need one more day to complete their handles in their respective double bottom bases are CBI GDI. CBI trigger would be 42.02, GDI trigger 87.01. NUE has recently undergone a tidal change as it has now spent 4 days above its 40 week MA, after it flew past that line last Friday. Its been up 9 days in a row and a little pullback would be a wonderful opportunity to establish a position near 40 week support, which previously was resistance. CVLT retreated back to its previous 47.66 cup base buy point and bounced today almost to the penny. Would love to see HD retreat to its previous 38.85 double bottom w/handle. Do not forget about WSM which is showing a inverted head and shoulders pattern. Buy stop to be precise is 40.17. COST reports Thursday.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup bases ABV 36.40, UPS 75.90. Cup with handles are AAP 71.10, INTU 55.53, RAX 45.56, PXP 37.01. Double bottom with handles are CNI 80.54, JKHY 33.83, USB 26.74. Flat bases are DEO 86.10, ED 59.99.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are FDX 85.75, TRN 30.30, ADSK 36.30, AKAM 29.55, BBT 24.70, SCCO 33.75, DE 81.90, DD 50.20. PNC retook its 40 week MA today.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are CPO 50.10, XRAY 35.80, EMR 51.50, PNC 55.85, EOG 99.75, EXXI 30.10. Stocks that found 40 week support today were CTXS CPHD IP HON DFS TROW COP OXY WERN.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are COH 61, DLTR 78.75, SCSS 18.50, ED 58, ACN 57, TIBX 27, NEM 66, BHP 74, EMN 38. Stocks that found 10 week support today were RL HXL WFM QCOM CTSH EMC NUAN SAP HSY AXP GS RRC SU DHR PII. Put a buy stop in on CELG as it climbs above 10 week resistance at 64.25.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are AMZN 202, TIF 70.45, ARMH 27.90, ADI 36.60, AVGO 33, PAY 43.25. KO SWK both met 200 day resistance today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stop spots are PPG 83.95, PH 81. CE surrendered 40 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are JAZZ 38.45, RRC 67, PII 58.50. JNPR MDRX both gave up 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are CPHD 36, WYNN 120, HLF 56. AAPL met 10 week resistance today.

Good luck.

The author owns JEC ROK GIS. Short CERN. Covered ALXN for a dollar gain. Will look to re short near 66, its 10 week resistance line. We shorted CERN at 60.12, as it fell below its 40 week once again.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Wednesday Game Plan

Markets again seemed perplexed, and dazed, as it has made it a habit of that of late. Both indexes continue to trade below their 200, as the S&P 500 hit resistance their for the second consecutive day. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher and the Nasdaq did just the opposite. Volume was tame. Their was a little excitement toward the middle of the session as more Euro news surfaced, but by the end of the day the tape was muted. As the old adage goes, never sell a dull market. A look at some individual names was mixed. One of the bright spots of the day was MELI, which rallied for back to back days in monster volume after breaking out Monday from its 90.09 cup w/handle. KLAC IBM both rose above buy points but did so on average daily volume below normal. A blast from the past, INTC, is closing in on a multi year high here. HD is trading tightly, a bullish sign, consolidating gains after a recent break out. NBL is mimicking HD, trading within a tight range after a break out 4 days ago. Stocks building the right side of their bases and warrant inclusion on a watch list include PLL ADP. I would like to see a little more accumulation in ADPs base. Stocks potentially putting handles here on their cup bases (remember handles must be 7 days in duration to be considered valid), are CBI JBHT. WSM looks like an inverted head and shoulders pattern facing some stiff resistance around 40. Put in a buy stop just above that price. Stocks that look like they may be short candidates after putting n recent double tops are ADS (high of 107.18 on 11/3 and a high of 107.33 yesterday), and ULTA (put in a high of 75.69 on 11/7 and a high yesterday of 75.70, a one penny difference). They can be shorted and a stop put in just above those double top prices. IYT XLE both continue to struggle with their 200 day MAs and SMH peaked its head just above it.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup w/handles PXP 37.01, RAX 45.56, INTU 55.53, AAP 71.10, BEAV 40.14, COH 66.64. Flat bases are NKE 97.78, ED 59.99, DEO 86.10. Double bottom w/handles are USB 26.74, DKS 42.21. FE has a double bottom buy point of 46.20.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are TRN 30.30, ADSK 36.25, PNC 56.10, CAT 98.50, KEG 15.45, DHR 49.40.

Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are IP 28, AXP 48, TROW 57.45, CE 45.50, JOYG 87, COP 71.95, COP 71.95, EXXI 30.10, OXY 95.10, NUE 39.60, ARW here. Stocks that found 40 week support today were QCOM MDRX ORCL PMTC SAP XRAY EMR DFS TROW CE PPG WERN.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are PCP here, BBBY 60.05, FE 44.50, JNPR 22, NUAN 24, HSY 58, V 92, BBT 22.50, JPM 32, BHP 74, EMN 37.95, SU 29.75. AAPL WY GS HAL all found 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are CERN 60.30, CPHD 32.75, PAY 43. CHKP lost its 40 week today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are TIF 70.25, ADI 36.60, CTSH 71, BIDU 135.50, BWA 72, CMI 99.50. ARMH KO BIDU AKAM SWK KEG all met 40 week resistance today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week MAs and their sell stop spots are DECK 104, DG 39, JAZZ 38.75. Stocks that lost their 10 weeks today were FIO BHI VLO.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are EXPD 43.40, HLF 56.20. HLF had a bearish outside day today.

Good luck.

The author owns JEC GIS ROK. Short ALXN. We bought ROK as it took out its 200 day at 76.60 and added some at 77.51. We shorted ALXN as it met 10 week resistance today at 65.30 and added some at 65.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Tuesday Game Plan

Markets closed Monday with a little vigor in the final 20 minutes, after being up as much as 1.5% earlier in the session. The indexes sold off mid day after S&P warned some Euro zone members that they were being put on a negative credit watch and a possible downgrade. During the trading day, indexes met stiff headwinds at their 40 week MAs. As we mentioned yesterday this market has been very technically driven, ad today proved no different. ETFs, IYT XLE SMH all met 40 week resistance by the close after trading above them on an intra day basis. LULU NVDA KOP CAT MAKO were some individual names that suffered the same fate. A peak at leading stocks was mixed to negative. MELI broke out on heavy volume forom a 90.09 cup with handle base on more than twice its average daily volume. FFIV broke out on very weak volume from a 113.70 cup with handle pattern. Others trying to break out only to fail included UNP 104.26 (cup w/ handle), NSC 76.30 (cup w/handle), FTNT 26.30 (cup w/ handle). DG tried to break out from its 40.81 flat base post earnings for the third consecutive day but closed just below it. IBM reversed after clearing its 190.63 flat base trigger, but did manage to close just above it. Of course these could break out tomorrow, but for now the action is a bit disconcerting. Looking at individual leaders was not encouraging either. KSU has been hitting new highs only to be continuously repelled at the $70 level. COG again was one of the first oil/gas stocks to go negative, which was a good indicator of oncoming weakness in the group. MA finished near its lows for the day. Very bearish action from these leaders which had outside days today included MCD HUM VRSK. Even worse was that these occurred when the previous three hit all time highs. ADS ULTA did not have outside days but had negative reversals intraday after hitting all time highs as well. WERN FMC can be put on the watch list and they are constructively building the right side of their bases. Could become cups or develop handles also. Patience. ETFs sporting specific buy points include XRT 55.02 (cup w/ handle) and USO 39.84 (double bottom w/handle). Quick tale of the tape. If you like gold miners, its imperative to pay attention as always to the technicals of the chart. Take for instance the leader NEM, a chart of beauty, holding onto 10 week support nicely. Contrast that with ABX, whose chart is wide and loose, which makes it more prone to failure. Stick with the leaders and smooth price action.

Stocks near specific buy points, and to be treated cautiously in this corrective environment are COH 66.64, BEAV 40.14, AAP 71.10, KLAC 48.85, CNI 80.54, ACN 62.00, INTU 55.53, RAX 45.56, CLR 72.39, EXXI 32.28, PXP 37.01, PXD 97.20, OXY 101.75. Double bottom with handles are DKS 42.21, USB 26.74, APC 84.52, NOV 76.15. ED 59.99 in a flat base, DEO 86.10 cup with high handle, and NKE 97.78 in a square box base.

Stocks that can be bought as they retreat to their previous buy points, which is not uncommon are HD 38.85 (double bottom w/handle), SCSS 19.33 (cup base), URI 27.42 (double bottom w/handle), EFX 36.00 (cup w/handle), CXO 102.07 (double bottom w/handle), INT 42.22 (cup w/handle).

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are TRN 30.30, PNC 56.10, BBT 24.75, CAT 98.50, KEG 15.45, DD 50.25, ROK 76.40. MDRX ORCL EMR WERN all retook their 40 week MAs today.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support include UPS 70, PMTC 20.55, CPO 50.10, CELG 59.50, IP 28, AXP 48, DFS 24.10, TROW 57.35, CE 45.50, JOYG 87, PH 81.90, COP 71.90, EOG 99.75, CBS 25.05, ARW 37.05, NUE 39.75. QCOM TROW PPG PX.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support include HXL 23.65, DEO 82, NUAN 23.90, NEM 65.80, REXX 14.75, HLF 56. VLO found 10 week support today. Stocks that retook their 10 week MAs today were RL HSY JAZZ GS.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are TIF 70.25, ARMH 27.80, ADI 36.50, AVGO 33.05, CTSH 71.65, ADSK 36, BWA 72, CMI 100, TPX 60. Stocks that met 40 week resistance today were TRN BIDU AKAM SWK XRAY WPI CAT WPI.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 40 week resistance and their sell stop spots are CERN 60.40, CHKP 54.05. ARMH lost 40 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are DECK 103.50, WSM 67.60.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are EXPD 43.30, ALXN 66, CPHD 36.05. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were EXPD MON SWN WYNN PCLN.

Good luck.

The author owns JEC GIS. We bought GIS as it broke out from its 40.35 cup with high handle base. It did so on anemic volume and we will keep a tight leash on this one.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Monday Game Plan

Markets ended Friday with a whimper, but weekly gains were mightily impressive. The benchmarks had their best week since March of 2009. The Nasdaq led with a 7.6% weekly gain, compared to the S&P 500s 7.4% gain. During the week both indexes retook their 10 week MAs (which have been sloping upward since the huge monthly move of October), but failed again near their 40 week MAs (the 40 week MAs are still sloping lower). Talking about 40 week MAs, some heavyweight sector and equities were repelled at those important longer term resistance levels. They include AMZN BIDU LULU. AAPL hit 10 week resistance. ETFs that encountered trouble at the 200 day as well were SMH IYT XLE. The SMH was stopped just above 31 and reversed lower Friday. Keep an eye on the leaders KLAC SIMO which both scored weekly gains of 11%. IYT backpedaled at the 40 week near 90 for the second time in 5 weeks. Leaders in that pack include KSU, and CNI NSC UNP all of which are now in cup with handle bases. XLE was turned back at its 40 week as well near 72, even as oil rose 4% on the week. Big weekly gains by the leaders in that bunch included 13% moves by CXO COG EOG CLR. The XLF sprung to life this week with a 10% weekly advance. I have mixed feelings about this group since the market has advanced while these have lagged. But as always I let the tape be my director, not my opinions. Leading stocks were quiet during the week. In fact a few backed off and reversed after trying to break out Friday. IBM shied away from its 190.63 flat base, and UNP did the same from its 104.26 cup with handle. Not the type of action you like to see. Some stocks which have broken out and continue to trade above their buy points, which you can buy as they retreat toward them (if they do and it is common for them to retest original buy points) are HD 38.85 (double bottom with handle), SCSS 19.33 (cup base), FTI 50.30 (cup with handle), GDI 83.47 (double bottom with handle). As always keep your losses small at no greater than 8%. Live to fight another day with prudent capital preservation rules. Final thoughts are this market maintains a technically driven one and to me true strong markets never really give the chance for participants to get in. They get frustrated and try and chase. This can all change with a stronger complexion of numerous break outs from leaders, and with indexes reclaiming 40 week resistance. DG reports Monday.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup with handles PXP 37.01, RAX 45.56, FFIV 113.70, FTNT 26.30, NSC 76.30, CNI 80.54, AAP 71.10, BEAV 40.14. Double bottom with handles are IP 29.51, USB 26.74, CLR 72.39, JKHY 33.83, KLAC 48.85, DKS 42.21. Cup with high handles are DEO 86.10, GIS 40.35 (that would be an all time high as well). Flat bases are NKE 97.98, ED 59.99.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are ROK 76.40, KEG 15.45, CAT 98.45, PNC 56.10, TRN 30.25, NVDA 16.25. JEC COP ARW all retook their 40 week MAs Friday.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week resistance are UPS 70, PMTC 20.60, SAP 58.30, CPO 50, CELG 59.55, USB 24.95, CE 45.10, FMC 80, JOYG 87, PLL 52, COP 71.90, EOG 100, EXXI 30.10, XOM 79.10, OXY 95, CBS 25.05, ARW 37.10, NUE 39.70. ADP CTXS CE PPG MON all found 40 week support Friday.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are DECK 104.50, HXL 23.55, BBBY 60, WMT 56.05, WFM 68, ASML 39, QCOM 53.10, SO 43, JNPR 21.75, INTU 51.50, NUAN 23.80, TIBX 26.50, XRAY 34, BBT 22.50, NEM 65.95, SCCO 29, DOW 26.10, EMN 37.75, DHR 46.05, REXX 14.70, PRU 50. PCP TAP EMC INFA ORCL BHI all found 10 week support Friday. Stocks that retook their 10 week MAs Friday were CTSH JPM NTRS.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 40 week support and their sell stop spots are CERN 60.25, CHKP 54.10, NOV 70.50. MDRX ORCL XRAY MAKO EMR all lots 40 week support Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are LULU 50.30, AMZN 200, TIF 70.20, ADI 36.60, AVGO 33.05, KO 67.05, SWK 67, WPI 64, PAY 43.75, CMI 100. Stocks that met 40 week resistance Friday were LULU AMZN ADP NVDA BIDU AKAM CAT KEG.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are DG 38.75, TSCO 69.70, ARMH 27.55, ALXN 65.75, JAZZ 38.60, NUS 45.70. FE MDRX both lost 10 week support Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are RL 147, HSY 58.05, CPHD 36.10. Stocks that met 10 week resistance Friday were RL EXPD AAPL HSY SWN WYNN PCLN.

Good luck.

The author owns JEC. We bought it right here as it broke above the 40 week. We sold KEG for a push as it reversed twice now at 40 week resistance. We will put in a buy stop above 15.45, and look for a retest of the 10 week. Also bought AKAM through the 40 week Friday, but were stopped for a very small loss as it reversed by the end of the session.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Friday Game Plan

Markets provided some soothing relief after yesterdays gigantic gains. The Nasdaq finished up by .2%, while the S&P 500 closed lower by that same margin. The benchmarks remain in between their 10 and 40 week MAs. They can be tested to the upside with a benign job number. Volume was gentle as market participants await Fridays job report. As we always discuss here, a key barometer to the markets health are the behavior of leading stocks and the amount of break outs occurring with those generals. Leading groups are hailing from more defensive related sectors, not the traditional growth names you would come to expect. As far as breakouts are concerned, they are scarce. COST tried to breakout from a 86.44 flat base today, but volume was mediocre. DEO tried to break out from a 86.10 cup with high handle base, but reversed just 2 pennies from that trigger. M DG both tried to break out today as well, only to reverse, and close lower on the day. SCSS is back to its 19.33 cup base buy point on 10/20, as it has acted well finding support at its 10 week, while groupmate TPX has faltered. HD is still above its 38.85 breakout from a double bottom with handle it took out Tuesday. EL HUM remain above buy points, but we need to see more of that behavior. JBHT is patiently developing the right side of its base. SMH acted well today and is nearing its 40 week near 31. Lets see how that ETF reacts there. KLAC rose smartly as it assumes its leadership role. XLE IYT both are scoping out there 200 day MAs and moves above those will provide much needed comfort going into year end. The action in energy leader COG was concerning although the move came in normal volume. I am proposing a new pair trade tonight. Long DEO/Short TAP.

Stocks near specific buy points include cup with handles COH 66.64, BEAV 40.14, AAP 71.10, KLAC 48.85, CNI 80.54, NSC 76.30, UNP 104.26, FTNT 26.30, RAX 45.56. Double bottom with handles are MDRX 21.20, USB 26.74, JOYG 93.94, CXO 102.07, CLR 72.39. Flat bases are ED 59.99, IBM 190.63, ALXN 70.52, BMY 33.37. GIS 40.35 in a cup with high handle base.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are NVDA 16.15, TRN 30.20, ADSK 36.25, AKAM 29.70, JEC 42.25, MAKO 30.70, AXP 48.25, TROW 58, DE 82, CAT 98.25, CMI 100.25, COP 72.25, ARW 37.25, DHR 49.45, NUE 39.90. ADP ORCL both retook their 40 week MAs today. Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are DKS 37.80, ASML 38.50, QCOM 54, UPS 70, CTXS 70.25, CPO 50, XRAY 35.80, CE 45.25, PPG 84.25, JOYG 87, EOG 100, EXXI 30.20, OXY 95, PXP 33.60, CBS 25. Stocks that found 40 week support today included ARMH MDRX PMTC EMR HON PAY CE PX CVX EXXI XOM NOV.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are NTRS 37.95, HSY 58.25, AAPL 392, CTSH 68.30, CELG 64.25. FE EMC both reclaimed their 10 week MAs today. Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are DECK 104, NKE 92, HXL 23.45, TSCO 70, ACN 56.25, JNPR 21.60, NUAN 23.75, BBT 22.45, NEM 65.90, RIO 51, MON 71, BHI 53.50, CJES 18.25, HAL 35, SM 75, SU 29.30, NUS 45.80, REXX 14.55. BBY CMG FIO TIBX WY BHP all found 10 week support today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are LULU 50, AMZN 200, ADI 36.55, SWK 67, TPX 60. BIDU MAKO DFS AXP ARW all met 40 week resistance today. CHKP can be shorted with a sell stop at 54, as it loses 40 week support.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are BBBY 59.75, TAP 40. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are RL 147.50, JAZZ 39.60, JPM 32, POT 46. Stocks that met 10 week resistance today were WFM EXPD CTSH HSY VLO WYNN PCLN.

Good luck.

The author is long KEG. We bought some as it retook its 40 week MA this morning. Tight stop here, and will obviously be affected by tomorrows jobs report.