Markets sputtered to a mixed finish despite decent jobs numbers. Volume sank in anticipation of tomorrows big job number. Leisure stocks got hit today with the likes of HOT MAR PCLN falling in heavy volume. After the close AA started the earnings season on the right foot. Shares were higher after hours. Gold took it on the chin today mapping a bearish downward reversal.
CPX BEXP XEC WLL all showed decent relative strength despite oil stocks showing general weakness. APC still having trouble with that 200 day MA. If it can break thru though @58.40 the scenario becomes bullish. PBR is a shining example of what happens when government interference takes place in a stock.
MCO JWN both continue to trade admirably higher after finding support at their 200 day MA. TEN can be bought @27.20 and SWKS can be bought @19. Both their 50 day MA.
Changes to the portfolio today were shorting WFMI @35.75 as it pierced its 200 day MA.
Good luck.
The author owns EXXI WLL APA. Short AVGO PSA WFMI.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
November Rain?
This January, when Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd announced he wouldn't be seeking re-election, Democrats scrambled to find a viable replacement. Dodd, who was Connecticut's longest serving Senator, was embroiled in financial scandals difficult to overcome. Enter Richard Blumenthal. The state's Attorney General since 1991 has held substantial leads against all potential Republican opponents. A spirited run from former WWE chairwoman Linda McMahon has Democrats worried as election day closes in upon us. Recent polls show the race tighteneing in a contest that may decide the control of the Senate.
Let's be frank here: Connecticut, a state in a traditionally blue region, presents an uphill battle for Republicans. However, the anti-establishment frenzy spreading throughout the nation has left its mark on the Nutmeg state whose Senate seat was once a foregone conclusion for Democrats. President Obama's state approval rating has fallen from 61% in 2008 to a low of 45% this month. Perhaps this is why Blumenthal has chosen to disassociate himself from Obama's campaign support...
Blumenthal enjoys many positive developments as the November race nears. Seven of ten residents strongly approve of his performance as Attorney General. The state's approval ratings for the repeal of health care and support for Arizona's anti-immigration law hover on the low end of the spectrum. During debates and traveling on the campaign trail, Blumenthal has moved toward the center in an attempt to placate voters. He's stated his oppositon to TARP and stimulus, maintained his support for both the "war on terror" and the death penalty. Not your prototypical Democrat.
McMahon, a self-made millionaire who's invested as much as $50 million of her own money in her campaign, is clearly the underdog. She's running as an anti-government, low tax, job creator. Known as the brains behind the uber-successful WWE, McMahon was instrumental in transforming the company from a small time local operator to an international phenom. She's aiming to surf the growing wave of public anger surrounding the economy and fiscal irresponsiblity.
As we'll see in November, the battle brewing in Connecticut is similar to that in many other states. This is Blumenthal's race to lose. But being a lifelong government employee, he's seen by many as part of the problem and not the solution. McMahon, a proven entrepreneur and job creator, will be viewed favorably. Who knows how the race will play out in this crazy world of politics. But come the first Tuesday in November, Democrats will be up well into the wee hours of Wednesday biting their fingernails.
Let's be frank here: Connecticut, a state in a traditionally blue region, presents an uphill battle for Republicans. However, the anti-establishment frenzy spreading throughout the nation has left its mark on the Nutmeg state whose Senate seat was once a foregone conclusion for Democrats. President Obama's state approval rating has fallen from 61% in 2008 to a low of 45% this month. Perhaps this is why Blumenthal has chosen to disassociate himself from Obama's campaign support...
Blumenthal enjoys many positive developments as the November race nears. Seven of ten residents strongly approve of his performance as Attorney General. The state's approval ratings for the repeal of health care and support for Arizona's anti-immigration law hover on the low end of the spectrum. During debates and traveling on the campaign trail, Blumenthal has moved toward the center in an attempt to placate voters. He's stated his oppositon to TARP and stimulus, maintained his support for both the "war on terror" and the death penalty. Not your prototypical Democrat.
McMahon, a self-made millionaire who's invested as much as $50 million of her own money in her campaign, is clearly the underdog. She's running as an anti-government, low tax, job creator. Known as the brains behind the uber-successful WWE, McMahon was instrumental in transforming the company from a small time local operator to an international phenom. She's aiming to surf the growing wave of public anger surrounding the economy and fiscal irresponsiblity.
As we'll see in November, the battle brewing in Connecticut is similar to that in many other states. This is Blumenthal's race to lose. But being a lifelong government employee, he's seen by many as part of the problem and not the solution. McMahon, a proven entrepreneur and job creator, will be viewed favorably. Who knows how the race will play out in this crazy world of politics. But come the first Tuesday in November, Democrats will be up well into the wee hours of Wednesday biting their fingernails.
Market Thoughts
An interesting day for the equity markets Wednesday. Commodities enjoyed healthy gains where as techs took a slashing. Anything tech related was whiplashed. Especially software names. But many tech leaders were bruised. VMW CRM RHT CTXS RVBD FFIV RAX NTAP AKAM PCLN. None survived the on slaught. These are rarely one day events, but with this psychotic market you never know. Volume was mixed and energy was strong.
Stocks sporting specific buy points include: MAR @38.25 (cup without handle), CLF @68.93 SWC @17.52 (both cup with handles), NOV @46.97 (double bottom), NSC @60.90 (double bottom with handle).
In the energy sector XOM thru 64.25 and APC thru 59 can be bought as they pass thru their 200 day MA. ANR did it yesterday on nice volume. SLB is no trading above that line too. XEC GSM both looking good in that group as well.
Stocks that can be bought as they approach their 50 day MA are CB @55 AAP @56.
JWN MCO continue to hold above their 200 day MA. WRC looking good after its break out @52.21
Lets see if DOV forms a handle. Stock looks strong as it forms its right side.
Stocks flirting with their MAs include WFMI APKT. Short stops can be put on both if they fall below those lines. APKT @33.75 (50 day) and WFMI @35.75 (200 day).
Sometimes a good defense is better than a good offense. Recent sales of AKAM @51 and CRUS @17.50 look good now. Perhaps lucky but good discipline always proves wise.
Portfolio went thru some changes yesterday. Stopped out for 1 dollar loss on TIBX. Sold my A for a push. Sold my FCX for a nice gain. AMT as well. Might reenter these in near future. Was just gut feeling to get out. Maybe overextended.
Good luck.
The author owns EXXI WLL APA. Short AVGO PSA.
Stocks sporting specific buy points include: MAR @38.25 (cup without handle), CLF @68.93 SWC @17.52 (both cup with handles), NOV @46.97 (double bottom), NSC @60.90 (double bottom with handle).
In the energy sector XOM thru 64.25 and APC thru 59 can be bought as they pass thru their 200 day MA. ANR did it yesterday on nice volume. SLB is no trading above that line too. XEC GSM both looking good in that group as well.
Stocks that can be bought as they approach their 50 day MA are CB @55 AAP @56.
JWN MCO continue to hold above their 200 day MA. WRC looking good after its break out @52.21
Lets see if DOV forms a handle. Stock looks strong as it forms its right side.
Stocks flirting with their MAs include WFMI APKT. Short stops can be put on both if they fall below those lines. APKT @33.75 (50 day) and WFMI @35.75 (200 day).
Sometimes a good defense is better than a good offense. Recent sales of AKAM @51 and CRUS @17.50 look good now. Perhaps lucky but good discipline always proves wise.
Portfolio went thru some changes yesterday. Stopped out for 1 dollar loss on TIBX. Sold my A for a push. Sold my FCX for a nice gain. AMT as well. Might reenter these in near future. Was just gut feeling to get out. Maybe overextended.
Good luck.
The author owns EXXI WLL APA. Short AVGO PSA.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Morning Thoughts
Markets ripped higher Tuesday with increased volume confirming big players buying up shares. Basically every sector was higher with crude and gold enjoying strong sessions thanks to the weaker dollar. The service sector surprise as well as Japan lowering interest rates contributed to the powerful day for equities. Breadth was obviously healthy.
Stocks that are forming specific buy points are: cup with handles include MAR @38.25, NBL @77.73, CE @33.10, TD @75.86. Cup without handle is BEXP @21.25. Double bottom for NOV @46.97. Double bottom with handle CSX @56.90.
PXD broke out yesterday from a cup with handle at 67.87. Lets see how that one continues to develop. CLR thru 49 to confirm its double bottom pattern can be bought. RADS held its 50 day in strong volume.
VALE CAKE building the right side and warrant inclusion on your watchlist.
Weak stocks that didnt perform on a banner day such as this include RBCN VLTR. Weak stocks on a strong tape signal tough times ahead. Lets try and short these as they move back toward their 200 day MA.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT A TIBX EXXI APA WLL. Short AVGO PSA
Stocks that are forming specific buy points are: cup with handles include MAR @38.25, NBL @77.73, CE @33.10, TD @75.86. Cup without handle is BEXP @21.25. Double bottom for NOV @46.97. Double bottom with handle CSX @56.90.
PXD broke out yesterday from a cup with handle at 67.87. Lets see how that one continues to develop. CLR thru 49 to confirm its double bottom pattern can be bought. RADS held its 50 day in strong volume.
VALE CAKE building the right side and warrant inclusion on your watchlist.
Weak stocks that didnt perform on a banner day such as this include RBCN VLTR. Weak stocks on a strong tape signal tough times ahead. Lets try and short these as they move back toward their 200 day MA.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT A TIBX EXXI APA WLL. Short AVGO PSA
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
AM Meandering
Yesterdays selloff came in weak volume, but should be noted that Mondays have been exceptionally strong this year and that was not the case yesterday. VMW PCLN BIDU AAPL MELI were all weak. Leaders showing weakness can be a red flag. The Nasdaq was not helped by a GS downgrade of MSFT. A former leader with little revelance anymore, but compromises a large portion of the Nasdaq. A strong dollar put a damper on commodities as well.
VMW found support at its 50 day MA @82. A violation of that line could be shorted. Same can be said for CRM which found support at that line as well @110. These two former leaders breaking down thru that 50 day MA can be shorted at not be a good sign for the market itself as a whole.
As for the weak energy sector CPX WLL RES showed some decent relative strength. BEXP could form a handle in the next few days. Remember the handle must be 5 days long and form in lower volume.
DE found support at its 50 day MA. Lets see if that can hold in the next few days. Speaking of the 50 day MA lets see if ARUN @19 holds as well as 55 for CB.
Portfolio got stopped out on WYNN for a 2 point loss.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT A TIBX EXXI APA WLL. Short AVGO PSA
VMW found support at its 50 day MA @82. A violation of that line could be shorted. Same can be said for CRM which found support at that line as well @110. These two former leaders breaking down thru that 50 day MA can be shorted at not be a good sign for the market itself as a whole.
As for the weak energy sector CPX WLL RES showed some decent relative strength. BEXP could form a handle in the next few days. Remember the handle must be 5 days long and form in lower volume.
DE found support at its 50 day MA. Lets see if that can hold in the next few days. Speaking of the 50 day MA lets see if ARUN @19 holds as well as 55 for CB.
Portfolio got stopped out on WYNN for a 2 point loss.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT A TIBX EXXI APA WLL. Short AVGO PSA
Sunday, October 3, 2010
A Banana Republic No More
Buried deep in the obscure pages of our newspapers, a former banana republic is predicted to see some stunning growth next year. When you think of a country with a 7% GDP increase, China, India or Brazil come to mind. But no, it's Panama. Huh? Not a typo. This country has made dazzling progress since the days of Manuel Noreiga's military rule some 20 years ago. Connecting Central America to South America, Panama has the fastest growing economy in Latin America. With a recent election, the most important canal in the world and the second largest free trade zone in the world; this nation has a lot going for it.
During the 1990's, Panama started one of the most successful privatization experiments the region has ever seen. Sectors as diverse as communications, railroads, highways, ports and cement were sold off by the state. The benefits of that operation have been long lasting. Companies from all over the globe showcased their skill and improved the way of life for Panama's citizens. Corporations like Kansas City Southern from the United States, the U.K.'s Cable & Wireless and Hutchinson Whampoa from Hong Kong all cooperated in this effort. Panama must be commended for realizing they didn't have the technology or resources to move their country into the fast growing future and in the process developed strong ties internationally. It's a win-win that's still paying dividends to this day.
Panama obvioulsy reaps the rewards of the famous Canal that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Canal, finished in 1914, has been wholly controlled by Panama since 1999. Shipping toll charges from international trade have been a big success for the country. The nation also enjoys the benefits from the Colon Free Trade Zone. The second largest free trading zone in the world, it's primarily used by Latin American countries. Business transactions are done solely in US dollars and the tax structure is extremely advantageous. Corporations must only pay taxes on business done inside the country. Revenues derived from outside the borders are tax free.
Panama's last election, which took place in May of 2009, was won in a landslide by conservative candidate Ricardo Martinelli whose win ended a long streak of left wing rulers. The supermarket mogul, who owns the Super 99 chain, has promised to fight crime and bolster education and transporation. He's also pursuing a 10% flat tax - a proven growth generator. A successful entrepreneur, Martinelli's election has aroused a trend of Central and South American politicians who demonstrate a real understanding of how business and economy truly work. In these fragile fiscal times, it's no wonder voters are running to the polls for real change.
When are we going to finally realize that shrinking taxes, free trade, and little government interference in the private sector are a recipe for real sustainable economic growth? Panama is a shining example of this success. As America de-privatizes companies like Citibank and GM (aka Government Motors) and Congress languishes on free trade pacts with both Panama and Colombia, the global marketplace is leaving us behind. Thank goodness November is only weeks away.
During the 1990's, Panama started one of the most successful privatization experiments the region has ever seen. Sectors as diverse as communications, railroads, highways, ports and cement were sold off by the state. The benefits of that operation have been long lasting. Companies from all over the globe showcased their skill and improved the way of life for Panama's citizens. Corporations like Kansas City Southern from the United States, the U.K.'s Cable & Wireless and Hutchinson Whampoa from Hong Kong all cooperated in this effort. Panama must be commended for realizing they didn't have the technology or resources to move their country into the fast growing future and in the process developed strong ties internationally. It's a win-win that's still paying dividends to this day.
Panama obvioulsy reaps the rewards of the famous Canal that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Canal, finished in 1914, has been wholly controlled by Panama since 1999. Shipping toll charges from international trade have been a big success for the country. The nation also enjoys the benefits from the Colon Free Trade Zone. The second largest free trading zone in the world, it's primarily used by Latin American countries. Business transactions are done solely in US dollars and the tax structure is extremely advantageous. Corporations must only pay taxes on business done inside the country. Revenues derived from outside the borders are tax free.
Panama's last election, which took place in May of 2009, was won in a landslide by conservative candidate Ricardo Martinelli whose win ended a long streak of left wing rulers. The supermarket mogul, who owns the Super 99 chain, has promised to fight crime and bolster education and transporation. He's also pursuing a 10% flat tax - a proven growth generator. A successful entrepreneur, Martinelli's election has aroused a trend of Central and South American politicians who demonstrate a real understanding of how business and economy truly work. In these fragile fiscal times, it's no wonder voters are running to the polls for real change.
When are we going to finally realize that shrinking taxes, free trade, and little government interference in the private sector are a recipe for real sustainable economic growth? Panama is a shining example of this success. As America de-privatizes companies like Citibank and GM (aka Government Motors) and Congress languishes on free trade pacts with both Panama and Colombia, the global marketplace is leaving us behind. Thank goodness November is only weeks away.
Sunday Sunday
Stocks finished a listless week of trading with none of the indexes gaining more than 1%. Leaders including NFLX PCLN BIDU AMZN continued to struggle, showing a little concern for the markets fledging rally. Volume was lower across the board. If history has any say this October markets should do fine. 7 of the last 9 Octobers in mid term elections years have been winners for markets. But of course we can not assume the markets will ride higher just based on this fact. Let the volume and price action dictate how we trade.
Stocks that have formed exact buy points include: NBL @77.63, BUCY @72.60, both cup with handle formations. Now we have 5 stocks that fit the 3 weeks tight pattern. All these have exhibited this bullish formation when there weekly charts finish 3 consecutive weeks within a tight 1% range. The stocks and buy points are: SQM @50.06 DTV @42.71 CNI @65.25 HAS @45.95 VRSN @32.27.
INFY had a powerful and as we know bullish earnings gap up. Keep it on your watchlist. CRM bounced off its 50 day MA in a bullish fashion.
Both DE and CB can be bought if they find support and bounce off their 50 day MA. DE @67 CB @55. SLB can be bought thru 63 and ANR thru 43.25 as they try to break free from their 200 day MA.
XEC now looking bullish again. In trading you have to be flexible and willing to change your opinion when the market tells you to do so. It can be bought thru 70 as it wrestles away from its 50 day and perhaps forms a double bottom pattern with an additional add on buy point of 77.21 or it could be a bearish head and shoulders pattern creeping back up to the neckline. Let the market tell us this week.
BEXP is forming its right side of base. Watchlist inclusion.
We were stopped out of CRUS for a 50 cent loss. Didnt like the price action, and we sold AKAM for a 4 point gain. Negative price action as well and looking to consolidate the portfolio.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT A TIBX WLL APA EXXI. Short AVGO WYNN PSA.
Stocks that have formed exact buy points include: NBL @77.63, BUCY @72.60, both cup with handle formations. Now we have 5 stocks that fit the 3 weeks tight pattern. All these have exhibited this bullish formation when there weekly charts finish 3 consecutive weeks within a tight 1% range. The stocks and buy points are: SQM @50.06 DTV @42.71 CNI @65.25 HAS @45.95 VRSN @32.27.
INFY had a powerful and as we know bullish earnings gap up. Keep it on your watchlist. CRM bounced off its 50 day MA in a bullish fashion.
Both DE and CB can be bought if they find support and bounce off their 50 day MA. DE @67 CB @55. SLB can be bought thru 63 and ANR thru 43.25 as they try to break free from their 200 day MA.
XEC now looking bullish again. In trading you have to be flexible and willing to change your opinion when the market tells you to do so. It can be bought thru 70 as it wrestles away from its 50 day and perhaps forms a double bottom pattern with an additional add on buy point of 77.21 or it could be a bearish head and shoulders pattern creeping back up to the neckline. Let the market tell us this week.
BEXP is forming its right side of base. Watchlist inclusion.
We were stopped out of CRUS for a 50 cent loss. Didnt like the price action, and we sold AKAM for a 4 point gain. Negative price action as well and looking to consolidate the portfolio.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT A TIBX WLL APA EXXI. Short AVGO WYNN PSA.
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