Sunday, November 20, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Markets ended the week Friday little unchanged. But a look at the weekly moves paints a much different picture. The Nasdaq led the way down losing 4% and not only meeting 40 week resistance, but losing its 10 week MA as well. The S&P 500 fell almost 4% as well but did manage to find support just above its 50 day MA. For the week volume was slightly below average. The action on the benchmarks was concerning, because we did get some decent economic numbers this week. Industrial output grew, jobless claims fell, GDP forecasts being revised upwards by a number of firms. Beware poor price action in reaction to good news. Notable stocks which have lost 40 week support this week include AMZN ORCL BIDU AXP CVX PCLN. Notables losing 10 week support this week included CMG DECK ALXN JPM. The greenback has risen now for 3 weeks in a row, putting a damper on commodities. Oil had a wild ride this week breaking through par Wednesday only to see that move reversed by weeks end. Gold slumped 4% on the week, but the GLD did find tenuous 50 day support Friday. It looks as if it is carving a cup with handle pattern with a 175.56 trigger point. A look at some leading stocks, a true barometer of market health, have been acting poorly since breaking out. They include TIBX (broke out from a 29.66 cup with handle on 11/14), NEM (broke out from a 71.35 cup base 11/7), CLR (broke out from a 71.87 double bottom 11/16). They all seem to be failing here. One that looks decent as it retreats to its original cup base buy point of 19.33, which it broke out from 10/20. See how it reacts in that area. Even defensive stocks such as food groups all looking spoiled, pun intended. KO is sporting a negative head and shoulders pattern here. HSY had a miserable earnings report 10/27, and HNZ lost 5% on the week following an earnings report Friday. Look for HANS to maybe follow the group if its breaches 10 week support at 89. Stocks which gap ups are still holding intact are bullish and include ORLY EL SWI QCOR. Earnings Monday come from ADI HPQ.

Stocks near specific buy points, to be viewed cautiously with the market in correction, are cup with handles BEAV 40.14, AAP 71.10, CNI 80.54. Double bottom with handles include BUD 59.57, JKHY 33.83, TIF 81.09. Bullish 3 week tight patterns include SIMO 20.59, HRL 30.11.

Stocks which can be shorted as they lose lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are COH 59.75, UA 76.20, VFC 129.50, BBBY 59.60, ADI 34.50, HANS 89, V 90.25, TROW 51.50, CE 39.55, CMI 93.50, COP 67.50. Stocks that lost their 10 week MAs Friday were CELG ADS TPX NEM BHI CVX TCK RL TD ULTA ARBA GIS. Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are DECK 103.60, COST 83, DLTR 78, ULTA 69, NVDA 14.50, TAP 40.75, KO 68, BIDU 132, WY 16.80, ALXN 65.55. Stocks that met 10 week resistance Friday were ADP ORCL BIDU NTRS FCX RIO DOW VLO.

Stocks which can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ATHN 49.70, CTXS 69.70, AMGN 55.20. Stocks that lost 200 support Friday were LULU AMZN WSM ARMH ACN MDRX ARBA CERN MAKO ABX. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are PCLN 503, PPG 85, ABX 49.20, PAY 44, DFS 24, AXP 48, HON 54, MAKO 30, CPHD 32.50, JEC 42.20, AKAM 30, CERN 60, ARMH 28, AMZN 201, LULU 50.20. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were ASML CHKP EOG EXXI OXY CBS.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs are PMTC 21, PH 82.20, KEG 15.25, ARW 37.50. IP FMC both reclaimed their 200 day MAs Friday.

Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are PCP 155, CMG 294, WFM 63.25, QCOM 54.10, JBHT 43.05, AAPL 363, INTU 50.60, CPO 50, RAX 39.60, CBI 36.20, URI 24.50, CXO 93, APC 76, PXD 88, TPX 59.75. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were PAG JBHT SAP HSY AMGN EFX PLL APC.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are HXL 23.05, M 28.85, SBUX 41, TJX 58, INTC 23.15, SO 42.75, DEO 80.75, VRSK 35.10, JNPR 21.50, NUAN 23, XRAY here, PNC 51, BBT 22.40, CLF 65, SCCO 29, DE 72, DVN 62, XOM 76, SM 75, DHR 46, X 24.50. Stocks that received 10 week support Friday were NKE UA VFC BBBY RPST ABV EMC MDRX CBOE V MON CRZO HAL SWN.

Good luck.

The author owns DE WMT. Short LULU.


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