Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Stocks were pummeled Tuesday, on its traditional "turnaround Tuesday". Pick your poison. Europe, slow China PMI, does not matter. As technicians we pay close attention to the tape. And today was not pretty. Volume expanded, which is obviously not a good sign. The Nazz lost 2.9%, and managed to close above its psychologically important level which held in both mid March and June. That level then proved to be resistance for the month of September, only to break through it in October. The S&P 500 lost 2.8%, and looks poised for a 50 day MA test near 1195. The 200 day MA on the SDS has proven to be prescient in forecasting short term market tops and bottoms is fast approaching its 200 day MA near 22. Perhaps the rally can resume then. Time will tell. It would be very easy to point out where the weakness was prevalent today, but tonight lets look for where the relative strength was amidst the carnage. Retail was a decent performer today. XRT, which managed to go positive early so briefly today, found 200 day support and looks to be building a handle on its cup base. Many stocks in the group actually had some nice intraday reversals to close near their highs for the day. They included PVH DSW LTD M JWN TJX WSM. Energy took it on the chin today but two stalwarts that stuck out well today were COG RRC. COG was off big early most likely in sympathy with SM earnings today. Gave you a chance to get into COG near the lows of the bullish 10/27 gap up. Also in that group EOG SLB SU all found precise 50 day support. CVI CVX SWN the same precise support at their 200 day MAs. Speaking of technical analysis and how simple MAs like the 50 and 200 days are important, lets take a look at some stocks that reported earnings today and how they reacted. SM FE EMR all found almost exact 50 day support before catching bids and going higher Tuesday post earnings reports. AMT did the same off its 200 day support. WPI found almost exact 50 day resistance after earnings today. Other leaders today which did not report earnings but found exact 50 day support were TSCO CHKP ALXN CELG BIDU TGT. AAPL also found strong support at its 50 day MA but its weekly chart shows lots of troubling distribution. CNI NSC, transports showed some good intraday reversals. Banks were weak with the XLF dropping 5%. GS MS found 50 day support, while JPM WFC could not say the same. Tomorrow we see earnings from CMCSA CLR DVN FWLT MA QCOM PAG WLL WFM CXO.

Stocks near exact buy points in this now more cautious environment include FE 46.61 in a flat base, GNC 25.96 in a double bottom with handle base, and COG 78.75 in a double bottom base. Yesterday we discussed how some leading stocks which recently broke out tend to retreat to their break out spots. Today two semis did just that with KLAC falling back towards its 44.69 double bottom with handle base, and INTC retreating to its 23.49 double bottom base buy point. Others that could be put on a watch list include CHKP which found exact 50 day MA support and could be forming a cup with high handle base. Potential buy point is 61.70. VMW looks to be forming a handle in its cup base. Remember the handle has to be 5 days in duration to be considered valid. And finally AET could be forming a potential handle in its double bottom base Found solid 50 day support today and hails from the same group as HUM which just broke out after a strong earnings report Monday.

Stocks hear 200 day support which can be buys if they hold are HSY 55.80, PCP 153, MON 69.75, CERN 59.15, INTU 50.25, TIBX 25.75, ACN 55.10, MXIM 25.05. Stocks that found 200 day support on this tough tape today were ANN DKS FOSL YUM KO MKC MON FFIV RAX NTGR ATHN CTXS ORCL SAP MCO CBS VZ NVLS XLNX PPG CVI CVX SWN UNP JBL BWA BEAV. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are DMND 67, ADP 51. Stocks that surrendered 40 week support today were EBAY R ARBA ADP XRAY JNJ LLTC GRA NBL PCLN TYC JOYG KMT CBI IFF.

Stocks near 50 day support and also can be bought if it holds are SO 42.20, BUD 53.50, PM 67.15, SBUX 39.50, WFM 67.75, MA 330.40 (earnings tomorrow), V 89.10, CRM 125, AZN 45.95, BMY 31, ADI 33.95, BBT 22, BK 19.95, NTRS 37.05, PNC 49.80, APA 93, COP 66.90, XOM 74.75, HES 57.25, WY 16.95. Plenty of stocks found 50 day support today among the wreckage and they include JNY NEM FCX SCCO ED ABV LULU BID AGN DE DELL ABC BMY DTV CE DOW EMN PX DVN TCK EXPD LVS IFF. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are HANS 88, IACI 40, BAX 55, MAKO 37, WPI 68, HFC 31.75. ROVI can be shorted with a sell stop @45.75, as it loses it 50 day MA. Stocks which lost 50 day support today were AA BHP RIO TAP K LMT IACI MAKO VIAB QCOM NVDA JPM IBN WFC BHI HAL BTU MMM ABB FWLT X.

Gap ups still holding include DECK MCD ORLY SWI QCOR COG.

Good luck.

The author owns some FCX DE. We bought a little more as both found 50 day support today. We also purchased some ORCL as it found 200 day support today.

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