Thursday, November 17, 2011

Friday Game Plan

Markets fell hard in above average volume for the 2nd consecutive day Thursday as European fears popped up again. Today Spain was the culprit. The Nasdaq lost 2%, but managed to close right at 10 week support, but its 2600 level was pierced. The S&P 500 lost 1.7% but also closed just above 10 week support. Markets are failing to react positively to decent economic news, today it was jobless claims and housing starts. Good news, bad price action can never be construed as benign. The SDS is nearing 200 day resistance 21.90. Its 200 day MA has proved very reliable in forecasting market rallies and corrections. Leading stocks which escaped serious damage today were not so fortunate today. Leaders such as PCLN KLAC SBH lost 5% today. ULTA 3.5%. DECK lost its 10 week MA today, but did so on quiet trade. Is it going to head lower and test its 200 day MA like LULU CERN MAKO? Time will tell. Retail stocks which found exact 10 week support today were NKE RL. The retail ETF XRT is headed for a 200 day test at 50.90. Software stocks wer hit today with the likes of CTXS CERN FTNT NUAN ORCL all falling in the neighborhood of 4%. Ags were hit as AGU fell 7%, POT 5%. The dollar continued its steady incline today hitting energy and metals as well. Gold miners were hit pretty hard as GLD closed right at 10 week support. NEM assumes its leadership role in that group and fell the least and found 10 week support. Banks and credit cards had a rough time of it today. The XLF pierced its 10 week MA today with GS MS JPM all falling more than 3%. Credit cards companies DFS fell 4%, AXP 3%. Again an example of follow the leaders where MA was basically UNCH and V was down 2% finding support at its 10 week MA. Some positives I have seen are the fact the the semiconductors and transports have been slowly and steadily making their way up the sector ranks. Perhaps we take a shot on energy leader COG if it gets back to its 78.75 double bottom buy point. Not much by the way of earnings Friday. CRM was down 6% after hours and INTU was little changed on earnings.

Stocks near specific buy points, (you have to be prepared even in this environment), are cup with handles MELI 90.09, AAP 71.10, RAX 45.56. Double bottom with handles are JKHY 33.83, IP 29.51.

Stocks near 200 day support are BEAV 36.05, COST 79, FL 21.25, WFM 63.25, ARMH 28, QCOM 54.15, FE 42.05, BUD 56.50, CNI 74, AAPL 363, INTU 50.60, CPO 50, GIS 37.75, CBI 36.20, EFX 34.90, CXO 93, APC 76, PXD 88.20. Stocks that received 200 day support today were ACN MDRX ARBA SAP MAKO CERN WPI EFX ABX MON PLL APC PAG. Stocks near 10 week support are COH 60, HXL 23.05, MCD 90, SBUX 40.95, TIF 72.30, SO 42.75, IBM 180, JNPR 21.50, XRAY 33.70, TROW 51.75, PNC 51, BBT 22.30, CLF 65, EMN 37.40, DE 72.15, BHI 54.25, CRZO 25.65, DVN 62.10, XOM 76, HAL 36, NOV 64, RRC 66.50, NUS 45.10, TPX 62. Stocks that received 10 week support today were UA SO EMC ORCL NEM SCCO CVX SWN.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week support and their sell stop spots are VFC 129.50, LULU 49.70, BBBY 59.50, DG 38.15, LTD 41.05, ADI 34.50, HANS 89, ADS 95.75, CE 39.55, CMI 93.50. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were COST ULTA NVDA SMTC FE EXPD CRM GIS BIDU ALXN AXP NTRS FCX RIO DOW TCK VLO. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are AMZN 199.40, AMGN 55.25, CPHD 32.10, CEN 59.50, MAKO 29.10, LULU 49.70. Stocks that lost their 40 week support today ASML CHKP INFA ORCL PMTC KO BIDU AXP PAY FMC PPG JOYG PH EOG EXXI KEG OXY SWN CBS.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are CMG 322, COST 83, DLTR 77.60, ADP 50.30, WY 16.90. FMC can be shorted at 80, its 200 day MA. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are AKAM 30.30, JEC 42.80. JBHT retook its 200 day MA today.

Good luck.

The author owns DE WMT. Short LULU. We sold FCX as its 10 week MA gave way today for a nice profit, but in hindsight could have sold at much more lucrative prices.

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