Thursday, November 10, 2011

Thursday Thoughts

Markets rebounded in very weak fashion Thursday, a day after a solid bruising. Volume on the comeback was less than impressive suggesting the institutions were on the sidelines. The Nasdaq was basically UNCH, but did find support at the 2600 level. Indexes like stocks tend to find support or resistance at big, round numbers. The S&P 500 rose just less than 1%. The headline of the day had to be the AAPL breach of its 10 week MA. A move down toward the 200 day MA in the near term looks like a strong possibility now. We have been mentioning the distribution the stock has been suffering as of late, viewable best on a weekly chart. When the 800 lb gorilla in the room suffers serious technical damage, its time to take notice. In fact the high beta names sat out today. WYNN has also been suffering as of late. It finished lower by more than 3.5% today on mild tape. Perhaps CMG will be the next to sever 50 week support. Keep an eye on the 320 level. Concerning the volatility the VXX found 50 day support today, most likely providing a buying opportunity after storming through it to the upside yesterday on healthy volume. Earnings reports are quiet Friday.

Stocks near exact buy points and which should only be purchased with big volume to confirm the breakout are double bottom with handles PM 72.59, AET 41.17, CBS 26.87, CVX 110.11, NBL 94.98, PAG 22.55, CBI 39.37. Cup with handles are TIBX 29.66, FTNT 25.43, SWN 44.46, NSC 75.96, UNP 103.90. 3 week tight patterns are DPZ 33.10, ETF XLU 35.57. BUD 59.86 in a double bottom base.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are EOG 101, WLP 70.20, HON 54.25, EMR 53. BUD PXD URI all retook their 200 day MAs today. Stocks that can be bought at 200 day support are BUD 56.50, MON 69.75, ARBA 31, ACN 55.40, QCOM 54.10, PPG 84.75, APC 76, FMC 80, PXP 33.95, VLO 25.05. Stocks that found 200 day support today were KO HSY R CTXS ORCL SAP PPG FMC OXY VLO PAG.

Stocks that can be bought near 50 day support are DECK 102, RIO 52.30, FCX 38, DG 38.05, AXP 48, CHKP 56.05, AMT 55, BBT 22.10, BK 20, JOYG 78. Stocks that found 50 day support today were BHP BBBY DE BIDU CRM CELG DTV NVDA MS JPM WFC HAL TCK WNR X.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 200 day support and their sell stop spots are KO 66.75, JAZZ 33.70, AVGO 32.75. CVI WFC both lost their 200 day MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are TXN 31.95, XOM 80, UPS 70.50. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were JNY EBAY XRAY LLTC XLNX GRA EXXI HON TYC PH.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CMG 319, DLTR 76.50. AAPL BTU both lost their 50 day MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are TAP 41, DSW 48.75, WFM 68.25, DAR 14, DFS 24.25, ALXN 64.40, GS 103, BWA 68. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were DFS ALXN BMY GS BWA WY.

Gap ups still intact and to be construed bullishly as long as they hold are ORLY EL SWI SBUX.

The author owns FCX DE WMT. Short LULU. Put on the retail pair right about here. WMT right at its 58.09 double bottom with handle buy point, and LULU losing 50 day support.

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