Saturday, October 29, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets were basically UNCH Friday, but the full week told the full story. Thanks to Thursdays banner day, both the Nazz and S&P 500 recaptured their crucial 200 day MAs, and went positive YTD (the Nazz is up 3.2%, S&P 500 up 2.2% for the year). Interestingly both the Nazz and S&P 500 were up exactly 3.8% for the week. The simple fact that Friday saw no surrender of Thursdays enormous gains has to be painted bullish. Perhaps strength was demonstrated in front of Mondays normally bullish tone. More leading stocks broke out of bases this week, confirming the current market uptrend. They included this week HLF TIF JBL SWI UA. Stocks hitting all time highs Friday from such diverse sectors were COG DECK NKE ISRG ORLY SPRD. Overlooking the broad power of sectors participating in the rally are telling. First XLF had a wonderful 7% gain for the week. GS higher by 13%, JPM 10%. KKR was up 13%, PAY 11%. V has to be respected given its last 3 weeks of tight trading near all time highs. Even MCO had a 14% weekly gain. The IYT had a strong 4% upside move. The ETF is setting up for a 200 day test near 91. Put in a buy stop above that line. In the group KSU had a 9% upside weekly move. CNI up 8%, FDX 6%. The greenback came under pressure this week as the Euro rose back above its 200 day MA, as seen on the FXE, giving commodities a boost. Energy ETF XLE retook its 200 day MA Friday as oil was up 7% on the week. If XLE can hold its 200 day MA here has to be construed well. NOV was up 15% on the week, COG 14%, BHI 12%. SLX, illiquid as it is, rose 17% on the week. Thanks to X upside move Friday through its 50 day MA. JJC rose by 15% this week, giving giants like FCX a 17% weekly gain. Gold rose 7%, bringing up the miners with the metals advance. That has not happened in sometime but NEM is now nearing multi year highs and both GG ABX retook their 50 day MAs Friday. Global growth equities had a massive week. JOYG DOV up 11%, CAT 10%. Semis had a nice week with the SMH up 6% for the week and retaking its 200 day MA Thursday. KLAC rose 9%, ASML 8%. Retail lagged somewhat, giving other groups a chance to play catch up and diversify the breadth of sectors in the current move upward. XRT was up just under 3%, but some big movers in the group included UA up 17%, LULU 15%, DECK 14%, COH 10%. Stocks finding support on earnings at critical moving averages Friday included CERN SWN, which both found major support at their 40 week MAs before catching material bids. Earning reports Monday come from APC HLF FMC SM after the bell. ED BID also report.

Stocks near exact buy points include cup bases HSIC 75.08, CNI 81.36, ASML 44.89, MTZ 23.27, ACN 63.76, RAX 46.27, TIBX 31.55, COH 69.30. Double bottom bases are XOM 85.51, CVX 109.85, PPG 93.95, AET 41.95, SAP 64.93, ORCL 34.23, YUM 55.80, ANN 28.61, LULU 61.90. 3 week tight patterns are SBUX 43.53, CELG 68.35, AMT 57.38. Double bottom with handle is GNC 25.96 and FE is in a flat base with a buy point of 46.61. Stocks can often be purchased after they breakout as many retreat their original buy point before resuming higher. Therefore M can be bougth back near its 30.72 cup base buy point. TSCO can be purchased close to its 70.20 cup with handle buy point. A stock that demonstrated just this Friday was TIF which fell to its 77.94 double bottom base buy point only to find buyers and head back higher.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are JNY 12.25, AGU 86.25, KKR 15.20, PAY 44.15, EMC 25.60, QCOM 54.40, ALTR 41.25, NVDA 17.25, BBT 25.25, PNC 57.25, WFC 28.40, DO 69.35, EXPD 48.50, FDX 87.25, HON 54.40, A 42.80, CAT 98.25. ETFs that can be bought through 200 day resistance are XLE 73.40, IYT 91.10. Stocks that retook their 200 day MAs Friday were GG DMND NTGR CRM CE CLR OXY WNR. Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are BUD 56.40, WSM 36.85, NTGR 34, FISV 59.60, R 49.50, CTXS 70, AZN 48, CBS 24.60, ARMH 27.95, ADI 37.05, LLTC 32, XLNX 32.45, CLR 61.75, EXXI 30.30, XOM 80, NOV 72, UPS 70.60, DHR 49.60, JOYG 88, PH 82.60, KMT 38.45, JBHT 43, FMC 80. Stocks that found 40 week support Friday were ABX BUD CERN EXXI SWN PLL PH CMI. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are GMCR 77, DTV 46.40, URI 25. Stocks that met 40 week resistance Friday were BSFT PXD PXP CAT URI. DFS can be shorted with a sell stop @23.70, as it loses 40 week support. Stocks that lost their 40 week MAs Friday were WLP DTV COP AVT.

Not much to discuss with stocks near their 50 day MAs. Ones that are and can be purchased at 10 week MAs are AA 10.95, ED 56.95, BBBY 58.05, BMY 31. GG ABX DFS X all retook their 50 day MAs Friday. Stocks that can shorted at 50 day resistance are HANS 87.75, HSY 58.55, LMT 77.50, POT 51.55, JAZZ 41.75. POT WYNN both met 50 day resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are IACI 39.50, MAKO 36.10. SWKS lost its 50 day MA Friday.

Gap up stocks are always imperatve to put on your watchlist. Once a stock gaps up strongly from a previous strong chart, let it consolidate and hold that gap up for 4 days. MCD is a great example of that. Stocks that had bullish gap ups this week and warrant inclusion on your radar are DECK ORLY SWI QCOR KSU SCSS.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE CVX. Bought a little CVX as it passed its double bottom buy point of 109.85. Volume was mediocre at best and we will flatten out of that one of weakness of 2%. It has bumped up against this 110 level now 4 times, so good chance it will take out that level soon.

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