Saturday, October 8, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets zig zagged between gains and losses Friday before settling in the red. For the week the Nazz was higher by 2.7%, the S&P 500 by 2.1%. The Nazz is down 6.5% YTD, with the S&P 500 lower by 8.1%. With the indexes still in correction (Nazz 14% off its 52 week high, S&P 500 16%), their was some constructive action on a weekly basis. Both indexes managed to close near the very highs of their ranges for the week, although they both were rebutted by their 50 day MAs. The ETF SDS hit 50 day resistance as well on Friday. That weekly chart shows a possible double top (this week along with the 8/12 week), which could be bullish for the markets. A broader look at the averages however shows leading stocks vastly under performed this week. A negative for sure. WYNN was repelled at its 200 day MA, while 800lb gorilla was hampered by 50 day resistance. Semis had a banner week, and indeed INTC KLAC NVLS TXN were higher on a 1% plus lower Nazz tape Friday. Good relative strength. Commodities were mostly higher for the week with copper up almost 6%, crude by 5%, on the backs of a slightly weaker greenback. FCX had a weekly gain of 12% on its biggest weekly volume in over a year and a half. Important groups, such as the rails saw UNP NSC WAB all meet strong resistance at their 50 day MAs. The ETF IYT looks poised for a 50 day test of its own soon, as that chart is mired in a downtrend. Machinery stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday included ETN CMI EMR HON. It is hard to paint a bullish picture on the markets until the major averages muscle through their respective 50 day MAs. Investment advisers are now predicting some very big up moves, a bad contrarian sign. Banks were assaulted again Friday with both GS JPM down 5%. That is all too familiar. Can PAYX be trying to tell us something about the future job situation? I doubt it could be positive at all, but I let the charts do the talking. And it was up over 1% on a weak Nazz tape Friday. JWN continues to be my favorite retail stock, as it gained 7% for the week. VFC in that group is another favorite and continues to sport a 132.92 cup with high handle pattern. The traditional earnings season kicks off this week with NVLS Monday, then AA JPM GOOG later in the week.

Stocks near 50 day support include NEM 61.50, HSY 57.45, BBBY 56, FAST 33, M 26, SBUX 38, WFM 64, XOM 73, CHKP 54, NDAQ 23.15, UPS 64.95, AKAM 21.75. Stocks that received 50 day support Friday were SCSS ABV V NTGR WFC SAP PX JAZZ. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are IACI 39.25, CVX 96.30, PPG 75. SCSS retook its 50 day Friday. Stocks that can be shorted as they find resistance at their 50 day MAs are RAX 36, LULU 54, AN 36.30, CVS 34.75, DPZ 26.80, GMCR 101, TIF 68, WSM 32, BUD 53.40, TAP 42.10, HLF 55, TPX 58, COP 65.75, RDSA 65, AAPL 383, MTZ 19.20, DHR 43.80, BWA 67, ATHN 58.50, CRM 126, DIS 32.50, EXPD 43, NUE 34, WY 17. Stocks that encountered 50 day resistance Friday were CROX IACI RAX ANF ANN MCD TIF WSM PCP CVX EP RRC RDSA PENN QCOM NLSN PPG NUE ARMH. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day lines and their sell stop spots are HANS 83, COST 78.25, CERN 64, JAZZ 40, WPI 65.50. Stocks that lost 50 day support Friday were DPZ CBOE MTZ.

Stocks near 200 day support include MON 69.25, RGLD 59, UA 67.50, CMG 279, COST 77, TGT 51, CVI 21.90, EP 18, EXPE 26.05, ACN 54.25, BAX 54.95, KSU 53.75. ANF TGT BAX AVGO all found 40 week support Friday. Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are K 54.10, PM 65.40, TIBX 25.25, HS 38.10, JBL 19.60, KLAC 42, MXIM 25.15. Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are GG 48.50, ABX 49, KO 66.50, COH 57.15, BIDU 131, PETM 42.15, EL 95, HFC 29.75, LVS 44, PCLN 490, WYNN 135, VMW 90, IRM 30.50, UNH 46. Stocks that met 40 week resistance Friday were KO COH EBAY PETM PM IFF EL HFC WYNN ARBA VMW PX HUM SWI.

The author owns FCX DE.

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