Monday, October 17, 2011

Monday Recap

Markets were slammed to start the new week today. Both the Nazz and the S&P 500 lost 2% on slightly increased trade. The S&P 500 and Nazz both were able to keep their head above the water near prior resistance areas. The Nazz held 2600, the S&P 500 1200. However with the earnings action after the close we certainly should be at least piercing those levels to start the day. China data tonight may, I repeat may, soften the blow tomorrow AM. The tone today changed with the dismal tape and heightened volume. As the quote goes, "when the facts change I do sir, what do you do?". So we should look to sell into strength for the time being. The SDS managed to reclaim its 200 day MA, which has been very accurate at predicting market tops since early August. The VXX jumped more than 10% today reclaiming its 50 day MA in the process. The dollar ETF UUP found 50 day support Friday and today continued its constructive action retkaing its 200 day MA. Commodities therefore took it on the chin. AA X were both lower by more than 7%. BHI was down 6%, in reaction to poor earnings from HAL. Opportunity? Perhaps. Chart in no mans land though. More bearish action was the bad price movement to decent news. CAT had an ugly outside day and in the process losing its 50 day MA, despite a Goldman upgrade. CMI lost 6% in sympathy. Banks were lower today on WFCs poor earnings report. However MS GS both finished higher on the day. GS reports tomorrow morning. TGT held up well also on a horrible tape as well. Good relative strength. BID lost 6% today. Are the rich abandoning their art purchases? Are we in the midst of a bear market rally? Let the markets action guide you as always. Earnings has certainly got off to a rough start today and continued with both IBM VMW falling after hours. Tomorrow we hear earnings from CHKP KO FRX HOG JNJ PII before the open and AAPL INTC CSX after the close. LLTC DPZ also report Tuesday.

Some stocks near buy points include cup bases M 30.72, PII 61.60 (earnings before open). TSCO 70.20 cup with handle. Double bottoms are K 56.49, SWI 25.72, APC 77.55 (upgraded by Raymond James, and met resistance intraday at 200 day MA), PENN 40.52. SO 43.19 in a 5 week tight pattern.

Stocks near 50 day support are ABV 32.10, DPZ 27, TJX 55, RTN 41, AKAM 22, IACI 39, NTGR 27.50, PLCM 21.80, KKR 11.25, TROW 50.10, R 42.75, ATHN 59, FTNT 18.10, JAZZ 41, WPI 66.30, DIS 32.05, SMTC 22, SWKS 20.30, XLNX 29.60, BBT 21.25, PNC 48, HFC 32, OXY 81,NUE 33.75. Stocks that found 50 day support today were PM BIDU RVBD CBS ALB DOW SM DOV JOYG. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their BUY stop spots are GNC 22.70, FRX 32.85. COG retook its 50 day MA today. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their SELL stop spots are MCD 87.60, BIDU 133.50, ADS 91, MA 326, CRM 123.75, HUM 74, HUM 74, NOV 61.75, EXPD 42.75, UNP 88, UTX 71.75. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were BHP LULU YUM ABC XRAY ALTR WFC CE EMN BHI FDX MMM ABB. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AXP 46.60, AET 38, ABC 38.05, CE 40.25, EMN 38, DO 60, A 34, FWLT 21.20. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were TAP AET VIAB IBN CRZO DO PXP PCLN A.

Stocks near 200 day support are PVH 64, UA 68, DEO 79, ANN 25.75, PIR 10.75, TIF 68, WMT 53.50, KO 66.25, K 54.10, MON 69.75, GOOG 560, DELL 15.25, INTU 50, TIBX 25, ADP 50.70, JNJ 63.40, BSFT 36, MTZ 19, V 36.40, ARMH 27.50, ASML 38.60, KLAC 42, MXIM 25.05, PX 99.50, WNR 16, KSU 54, JBL 19.50. Stocks that found 200 day support today were RAX DTV BRCM CRUS PCLN JBL. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their BUY stop spots are BIG 36.25, MKC 48. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their SELL stop spots are ARBA 30, HS 39, LVS 43.80, PCLN 490. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were FOSL WSM DFS NDAQ ORCL BAX CMCSA QCOM GRA CVX RDSA CNI. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are GG 48.50, ABX 49, DKS 37.05, YUM 52, DFS 23.50, NSC 68. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were GG DKS YUM NSC WYNN BWA.

Good luck.

The author is long FCX DE. We sold XRT as it lost its 200 day MA for a very small loss. That was our catalyst to get in. Discipline.

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