Thursday, January 5, 2012

Friday Game Plan

Markets displayed some muscle Thursday, as benchmarks overcame early weakness to close with modest strength. Classic bullish behavior. The Nasdaq rose almost 1%, on strong volume and reclaimed its 40 week MA. From its intraday low it recovered about 40 handles. The S&P 500 lagged slightly, but posted a bullish outside day. Concerning break outs, they were scarce once again with the exception of RS, which cleared a 51.02 double bottom with handle. It actually broke out yesterday, but volume confirmation was on exhibit today. The banks rallied on potential mortgage modification plans from the White House. But they have been in the bottoming process recently. XLF is sniffing out its 40 week MA near 14. JPM WFC rallied smartly. XLE closed well off session lows and is also readying itself for a 40 week test just above. Put in a buy stop there at 71.75. CLR WLL were both up over 3% today. Aerospace names are heating up, indicating a possible economic expansion. SPR was up over 4%, HXL is sporting a nice cup base, and even BA, shrugged off some disappointing news concerning plane shipments. SMH retook its 40 week today as SIMO advanced 4% to a 3 year high. Retailers had some volatile moves today as stocks such as M DECK ASNA DSW ROST were all up better than 4%. LULU is up more than 10%, in the last two days. Today it reclaimed its 40 week MA, a day after Goldman putting the company on its conviction list. TGT fell today, a day after it sliced through its 200 day MA like a freshly sharpened Ginsu knife. Think someone knew the news yesterday? Hmmm. At the risk of sounding cliche, this has certainly become a stock pickers market. As we saw with the mixed retailers today, even V and MA seem to be bifurcating. Talking individual stocks, POT relative weakness should be noted today in a strong ag sector. 10 week resistance is becoming a factor with POT as well. Stocks that may be putting a handle on their cup bases and warrant inclusion on your watch lists include GRA RHI EXXI VAR KO.

Stocks near specific buy points are cup bases NUAN 27.07, VAL 40.70, CBS 29.78, AAPL 426.80, WFM 74.55, ASNA 35.35, UNH 53.60, BIIB 120.76, MRO 35.07, ADP 55.12, TYC 50.69, IP 31.67, HXL 26.58, R 60.48. Cup with handles are NSC 76.59, AME 43.83, NBL 99.27, AET 43.99, ALGN 25.68, DGX 59.49. 3 week tight is DG 42.20, 4 week tight is DLTR 84.09, and cup with high handle is EAT at 27.45.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are CAT 96.40, ETN 46.35, MMM 86.25, STLD 14.70, DOW 31.70, NTRS 42.90, WLL 54, DHR 49.15. LULU AGCO both retook their 40 week MAs today.

Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are RAX 40.30, COP 71.20, EOG 98, OXY 94.90, RRC 60.30, GPN 47.10, ARMH 27.85, MCHP 35.40, MYL 21.10, NEM 60, AGCO 45.75. Stocks that found 40 week support today were FLS JEC GD BLL OMC RRC SGY TROW DE.

Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are TXN 30.90, FE 43, TIF 70.50, HLF 53.50, TPX 60. CAT STLD both encountered 40 week resistance today.

Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are CNI 77, JBHT 43.70, JEC 40.15, KBR 27.30, BUD 58, ABV 34.30, RAI 39.85, BK 19.90, BP 43, COG 80, FTI 49.05, MUR 54.25, OII 45, TCK 36.25, NKE 95, SO 44.05, GNC 27.05, EL 110.30, FCX 38.50. Stocks that found 10 week support today were TRN CFX CBE KMT HXL ATI CPX NOV ASML MCHP VFC ED WMT WSM CL CPO AVT. COH can be bought with a buy stop of 62.30, as it reclaims its 10 week MA. ULTA retook its 10 week today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are PH 80, SWI 29.80, IBM 186, RL 147, ANN 24.90, BBBY 60.60, COST 83.95, LTD 40.10, TSCO 72, SNPS 27.10, PII 59.80. TXN MELI TPX POT all met 10 week resistance today.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are CBI 37.65, KLAC 46.40, DPZ 32.75 (I am short DPZ). RAX BHP both lost 10 week support today.

Good luck.

The author owns IYT NUE KEG BLL. Short DPZ.

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