Sunday, August 7, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets gyrated all over the place Friday ending a disappointing week to say the least. The Nazz had an intraday range of an astounding 128 points losing almost 1%. For the week it crumbled 8.1%. It is now down 4.5% on the year, and it is 12.3% off its 52 week high. The S&P 500 traded in a 50 point intraday range closing basically UNCH. IT lost 7.2% for the week. It is down now 4.6% on the year, and it is 12.5% off its 52 week high. Obviously both are now beyond the 10% correction threshold. The damage done this week was real and swift. We know the 3rd year of bull markets can be volatile in nature, but this was brutal. The global growth story came into question this week, with companies having heavy international exposure falling precipitously. BHI fell 17%, RIO 16%, CLF 15%, JOYG 15%, UNP 10%, UTX 10%, CE 20%, MOS 10%. Last week we discussed how the steel sector was signaling a possible double dip. This week you can add coal. BTU fell 19%, and WLT a stunning 40%. big time leaders which finally caved below 50 day support for the first time in a while were LULU FOSL. But again, amidst the tremendous volatility the astute, prepared trader could have taken advantage of some simple support levels to carve out some nice profits. Stocks that found support to the penny on their 200 day MAs Friday were BBBY COST FAST M KO RL HAL WTI NSC. Leaders that did the same with 50 day support were VFC HLF COG JAZZ. Stocks doing the same after earning reports were WTW, which gave itself instant liposuction, cutting off (no pun intended) more than 20% Friday before finding support exactly at its 200 day MA. RAX had a huge bearish outside day on earnings. It found resistance right to the penny at its 50 day MA, the plunged 11% losing its 200 day MA in the process. BRY got shellacked post earnings, only to find support at its 200 day MA. I am not a macro guy, strictly a technician, but the confidence corporations have been displaying by virtue of merger activity has come to a halt after recent activity with the likes of TBL BLUD BJ ARJ TIN CEPH. Interesting little tid bit. Of course we had S&P deliver its US debt downgrade Friday night. Who knows what will happen Monday morning. Just have your watch list ready to take advantage of any equity mispricings near 50/200 support or resistance lines. SLW reports before the bell Monday. FOSL reports before the bell Tuesday for anyone contemplating an overnight hold Monday.

Stocks that are near 50 day support are COG 64.75. Stocks that found support at their 50 day MA Friday were SAH DECK BIDU IACI RRC V MSFT ALXN. With the recent carnage not many stocks are still holding above their 50 day MAs. Those that are include HLF AAPL QCOR GMCR SODA.

Stocks near 200 day support are ROST 70.75, SCSS 12.65, SFLY 45, SBUX 34.55, TJX 49.50, TIF 65.65, TSCO 54.50, WFM 56.25, CL 81.20, EL 90, DAR 14.60, EXPE 25.95, CHKP 50, QLIK 27.05, DFS 22, GSK 40.40, CHK 29, SOLR 11, KEG 14.60, WCN 29.25. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were MW PAG HNZ HOG TIBX AXP AET PLCM DISH MTZ MSI CBS CPX HLX OIS OKE PTEN MCO CHD HRL DAR AGN. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are GR 88.25, EAT 23.10, ORLY 59, PETM 41.55, YUM 51.60, ICON 21.15, UA 64.10, ARBA 28.55, INFA 49.10, CAH 41.10, XRAY 36, STJ 46, GSM 20.20, MRO 28, WMB 28, ADP 50, BLL 36.05, AVGO 31, XLNX 31.95. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were DG JWN GR NKE MON POT ATW CRZO NOV. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stops are LTD 34.05, TIBX 24.10. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs Friday CHS UA VMW FTNT INFA FRX NCR GSM CE BHI PXP SGY KSU ARMH. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are DG 31.25, DPS 38.25, SINA 94.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are AN 36, FOSL 117, SBUX 38, DV 60, IFF 58.80, TPX 65, EXPE 29, CERN 61.10, ADS 93, TDC 56.85, ROC 54, ACN 58.50, CCK 38.15. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were ANF KO ADS WPRT. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were LULU LVS EXPE BBG CHK.

Good luck.

The author is 100% in cash. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.

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