Monday, August 1, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets had a roller coaster ride Monday to begin the new week. The markets seemed to turn tail just before some disappointing manufacturing data early in the day. We have been alluding to the fact that the debt ceiling is getting way to much play. GDP last week revised downward, durable goods weak. There is much more behind the scenes than the debt ceiling weighing on this market. The S&P 500 lost its 200 day MA intraday only to reclaim it by the close. The Nazz had an intraday range of 80 points, losing its 50 day MA, but finding support at the 200 day. An economic bellwether FDX bounced off 85 today, for the fourth time since last November. The huge loss of gains is an obvious negative. Healthcare stocks were torpedoed on the back of HUM earnings. Stocks suffering negative outside reversal days today were FAST (which also lost its 50 day), BDX (which also lost its 200 day), BHI BHP. New highs versus new lows were dismal as well. Almost 3 to 1 in favor of new 52 week lows as opposed to 52 week highs. More than 2 to 1 on the Nazz. Negativity seems pervasive here and perhaps taking a contrarian view can be profitable. But as a technician we are ruled by the price and volume action of the indexes and leading stocks. And that is not pretty. Some bright points were JAZZ, which bucked the negative medical sector today, adding to recent gains from its 36.57 cup with high handle buy point. DECK hit an all time high today taking out par and finishing near its highs for the day. Tomorrow expect earnings reports before the bell from BDX COH HS MRO PH WLK, and after the close from CBS OPEN VCLK.

Stocks to be put on a watch list until markets stabilize are: Cup with high handles MON 77.19, POT 62.14, SLB 95.63, WTI 29.37, ANF 78.35, NCR 21.07, ATW 48.94, CVX 109.85, PXP 42.06, SM 80.91. Double bottoms with handles are MTZ 22.48, CLR 71.87, EBAY 35.09, NKE 94.33, WPRT 28.15. CHK 36.05 in a cup base.

Stocks near 50 day support are AN 36, M 28.75, JWN 47, SBUX 38, KO 67, GR 91.90, WYN 33.35, PM 68.50, CHKP 56, DFS 24.90, NSC 73.25, NBR 25.75, PENN 40. Stocks that found 50 day support today are CHS DLTR M PAG TSCO KO SAP LYB PPO DTV SINA GS JOYG EXXI SWN TCK ARMH BEAV SCCO GILD SWKS HSY. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are MW 33.40, IFF 63.10, NFLX 270, BG 70.20, CAT 103.50. WLK WDR reclaimed their 50 day MAs today.

Stocks near 200 day support are EAT 23.05, DRI 48.35, TITN 25, YUM 51.55, CAH 41, CRL 37.5, XRAY 36, HS 36, NFA 48.50, NUAN 19.10, QLIK 27, APD 90, QCOM 53, CSX 23.80, EMC 25.15, PLCM 24, BLL 36, IP 28.10, BX 16.10, CAT 98.50, PXD 90, CLF 85. Stocks that found support at their 200 day MAs today were CELG VPHM FTNT SIAL WDR ACOM ROP UTX TMO ABB XOM ALTR XLNX FCX RIO. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are ABX 49.05, WY 21, SMTC 24.40, KLAC 42, DOV 62, JBL 19.05, BID 44.10, CAKE 30.20. Stocks that met 200 day resistance today were ANN DKS CAR CTXS DOW KKR TYC DHR DOV SUN OVTI. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ABV 29.20, CMCSA 23.10, ACOM 33.75, WAT 84.75, ADP 49.75, XOM 78.35, GPC 51.75. STJ WLP ZMH SWI KMT OXY BHP all lost 200 day support today. Place a buy stop on MOS @73.60, its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are COST 80, LTD 38, HRL 29.25, ICON 23.70, CHD 41, TUP 66, FRX 38, ARBA 31.55, TIBX 27.50, ALB 68, PPG 86, SOA 22.50, EFX 35, TROW 59, MSI 45.50, BHT 46, VIAB 49.80, TDC 56.80, ETN 49.65, RIG 64, AVGO 35.10, GG 49.60. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were SCSS HRL ICON AGN CELG CI CRL XRAY HUM LTD PX AXP CMCSA AGCO JPM MS WOR ATU AME COP DVN MRO BTU SU. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are BBBY 55.75, KMX 30.55, PAG 21.10, UA 71.75, WPI 66, R 54.70, ACN 58, PTEN 30.75, WCN 31.60. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were DRI FAST ARBA UNP BLL.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX DE WNR WOR SDS.

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