Sunday, June 26, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets slumped Friday, adding to the recent corrective woes. Volume came in higher than the Thursdays levels, due to rebalancing in the Russell 3000 index. For the week the Nasdaq outperformed, halting its 5 week skid, closing up 1.4%. It closed just below its 200 day MA, and now rests 8% off its recent 52 week high. The S&P 500 closed down for the week, albeit very marginally at 0.24%. A look at its weekly chart shows 3 tight closes, all within 3 points of each other. Tight trading action usually means a coiling of the spring, followed by a big move one way or the other. The S&P 500 has managed to hold that 200 day MA. For that it must be given credit. It now rests 7.5% off its recent high. It is hard to make a case for a healthy market given the 3 leading sectors currently. Healthcare, food/alcohol, jewelry. Sprinkle in some utilities and the game the institutions are playing is clearly defense. In the trading world things can change very quickly, so as I have my doubts, it is only prudent to keep a watch list in case things turn rosy, as well as short setups. Charts that hold up well in a correction tend to be the strongest once a rally resumes. Among those that fit that bill are TSCO AVGO TUP HS WPI FOSL TIF WCN CBS NSC FTNT INFA N NTGR QLIK PLCM TDC to name a few. Chemicals and restaurants were the groups that bucked Fridays weakness. Among the laggards were the oil and gas group, due to the SPR release. Refiners especially were hit hard. GLD lost its 50 day MA for the first time since early February this year. A contrarian indicator painting a somewhat better picture is the ratio of bullish investment advisers compared to bearish ones. Bullish advisers have fell to lows not seen since last October. Currently that number stands at 37.6%, down from its highs in the 60s. Bearish advisers are rising the fastest also since last October at 28%. NKE reports after the bell Monday and personal income will be released.

Stocks offering specific buy points include: Flat bases are APD 96.10, NSC 75.10, SAPE 15.05, NTGR 43.77. Double bottoms in the chemical sector are FMC 84.92, PX 106.33, ROC 52.86, ARBA 34.05. 3 week tight patterns are AET 45.50, CI 50.94, MSI 47.10. UA 80.10 in a cup without handle base.

Stocks near 50 day support are CE 49, CI 48, HUM 77.95, UNH 49, BBBY 54.90, FAST 32.80, M 28, PAG 20.55, SBUX 36.10, SCSS 16, CBS 26.20, WCN 30.75, INFA 54.25, N 32.15, QLIK 31, RHT 44.60, CRM 140, TMO 61.80, CI 85, EL 98.20, TPX 62, TUP 63.25, PLCM 57.40, AVGO 33.90, MCHP 35.95, DAR 17, BEAV 37.20, ACOM 38. Stocks that found support at their 50 day MAs Friday were PPO AGN AET WLP AMZN WFM ABV CHKP VMW CRZO HOC KEG AEM. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are PPG 89.15, NUAN 20.95, TIBX 28, A 49.75, HP 62.25, DD 53.15, IPI 31.50. ACN DFS retook their 50 day MAs Friday.

Stocks near 200 day MAs are COH 54.10, HBI 26.85, LYB 35, CAR 15.10, WYN 30.80, WCRX 23, DKS 36, JWN 43, PM 62, ABB 23.20, CAT 96, DOV 60.40, ITW 52.95, JOYG 86, ROK 77.80, CTXS 71, SAP 56.25, CHRW 75.20, CSX 23.05, FDX 91, JBL 18.70, KKR 15.05, ATI 59.60, CVX 94.50, CPX 28.25, COP 69.25, CLR 59.25, XOM here, NOV 67.10, OXY 95.75, HK 20.95, SWN 38.50, HON 54.10, IP 27.45, DHR 48.35, MMM 89.90, TYC 43.95, UTX 80.70, ADP 48.80, VCLK 15.45, EMC 24.65, CMCSA 22.85, QCOM 52, NXPI 22.75, VECO 46.05, ARUN 26.05. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were VPHM ANN TTMI TEL APC CHK XOM DD ADI. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are SOA 22.50, DIS 39.15, VRSN 33.80, UPS 71.10, APH 53, AMP 57.85, GTI 19.75, TS 45.75, NE 38.75, PXD 87.75, ETN 50, OPEN 81.45, JDSU 17.05, TXN 33, DNR 20.10. Stocks that met 200 day resistance Friday were IR PAY SUN AA BHP POT. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stops spots are DOW 34.50, STJ 44.80, SYK 56.40, ANN 25.30, WSM 36.10, KO 64, ARW 36.40, PKI 25.30, SPN 34, RVBD 33.75, FCS 15.70. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs Friday were CBE PH WN ORCL TKR APA RDC RDSA SLB VLO AAPL MXIM. One stock that finished up on the day displaying relative strength was CLF. Put in a buy stop if it can reclaim its 200 day MA at 88.50.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are DECK 87.50, ALB 67.50, EMN 102, LVS 42, MAR 35.60, RCL 38, AGP 66.75, COST 80.50, LTD 39, BID 43, PLL 55.10, BMC 52.50, ERTS 22.40, UNP 101, ADS 90.50, AXP 49.15, MTL 26.50, HAL 48, SGY 31, CCK 39, BLL 38.05, EMR 54.75, TWC 76. Stocks that met 50 day resistance Friday were ALB FMC JWN PIR DOV CSX A MOLX AXP GSM ATW HLX MRO IFF CTSH RIO MON AGU. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are BAX 57.90, AN 33.50, WFM 60, KSU 55.25, DRC 49.75, IRM 32.35, DISH 27.50. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were COH RL ABC COST YUM BMC CNI ADS WNR.

Good luck.

Author 100% in cash.

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