Saturday, June 11, 2011

Weekend Warrior

Markets continued their weekly slide Friday. The Nasdaq fell 1.5% Friday and the S&P 500 1.4%. Volume increased. For the week the Nasdaq lost 3.3% and the S&P 500 2.2%. The Nasdaq now sits 8% off its recent highs, while the S&P 500 sits almost 7% below its early May highs. The indexes are now testing 200 day support. The Nasdaq did on Friday and it held for now. The S&P 500 looks poised to test its 40 week moving average at 1260. If some of the more important individual components of these indexes are a harbinger, it does not look pretty. Friday, HES KLAC TXN OPEN RIO ARUN all pierced their 200 day MAs to the downside. To be balanced AAPL RVBD ORCL did all hold, but support looks tenuous. More disconcerting has been the action of the markets leading stocks. This week PCLN WYNN took a turn for the worse. APKT BIDU have both stumbled recently as well. Pick your poison for the reasons why we sold off Friday, global slowdown fears, concern over Greek debt, dollar strength. Who cares. We remain in correction and as traders, opportunities will arise, but defense remains the name of the game. The strong greenback on Friday did create havoc for some commodities, as gold, oil and silver fell between 1-3%. Obviously energy backed off, but machinery and transport sectors also took a bruising. Referring to the transports we made the point earlier this week about FDX UPS piercing their 200 day MAs last Friday. The assault continued for those with FDX losing 5% and UPS almost 4% this week. Regarding employment, a Mark Twain quote comes to mind. "There are lies, damn lies, and government statistics." We all know the real unemployment rate in this country is most likely in the high teens, not 9.1%. All you have to do is look at the stocks of PAYX, which lost its 200 day this week. Or ADP which chart looks like it has taken a turn for the worse this week, losing its 50 day. Or even an MWW, whose chart resembles a nightmare. All this being said negativity is reaching a boiling point, and could these indexes bounce off their 200 day lines and continue their advance. Of course they can. Thats why its prudent to keep your opinions in check, and an eye on buying opportunities all the time. Respect the markets moves. We get paid on that criteria, not our personal assumptions. Earnings announcements and economic data for Monday is very quiet.

Stocks near 50 day support are COH 58.10, AET 41.10, CI 47, HUM 45.95, UNH 48, WPI 61.40, WLP 75.40, M 26.45, TIF 68.25, CBS 25.95, ABV 31.05, ERTS 21.95, TMO 60.25, COG 54.50, KEG 16.05, SWN 41.95, BLL 37.85, DISH 27.05, MON 67.40, SQM 58.75. Stocks which received 50 day support amidst the wreckage Friday were WCN BMC CTXS FTNT INFA CRM NSC BHI OXY PTEN SUG CL AVGO CY VECO WSH.

Stocks near 200 day support are DECK 75.50, HBI 26.50, UA 58.75, VFC 89.10, PPG 83.50, PX 96, CAR 15, WYN 30.50, SYK 56.10, VPHM 17.25, WFM 52, YUM 50.20, KO 63.90, CAT 94.50, CBE 58.40, DOV 60, BGC 36.25, ITW 52.20, JOYG 85, SAP 55.85, TIBX 22.85, CHRW 74.80, KSU 49.25, ARW 36.10, MOLX 24, PKI 25.45, TEL 34, COF 46, ATI 58.75, APC 71.75, ATW 38.50, CHK 27.55, COP 68.50, CLR 58.50, DVN 79, XOM 76, HLX 14, NBR 24.20, NBL 86, RDSA 67.70, SLB 80.20, UPL 45.95, HON 53.50, IP 27.05, MMM 89.30, UTX 80, VCLK 15.05, EMC 24.40, CMCSA 22.50, ADI 37, MXIM 24, MCHP 35.50, NXPI 22.10, SMTC 23.50, BHP 89, POT 52.75, BEAV 35.90. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were SOA EBAY CXO NFX NE SU SUN JDSU AA TRW DNR. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs were PVH JWN DIS IR WM TKR BP FTI WLL. MDRX OMC both met 200 day resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are HOT 58, WCRX 23, ADSK 39, APH 53, AVT 32.60, AMP 57.50, IVZ 23.95, GTI 19.55, DO 70.60, SWC 20.20. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are DOW 34.05, FMC 77.75, ANN 25.05, DKS 35.20, EBAY 29.60, WSM 35.70, PH 84, ROK 76, VRSN 33.40, JBL 18.05, PAY 41.40, TS 45.05, APA 114.75, PXD 86, RDC 35.75, CTSH 71.75, RVBD 33.15, BWA 66.30.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are CE 48.25, PPO 62, AGP 67, ZMH 65, PAG 20.55, SBUX 36.15, VIAB 49.15, MKC 48.85, AXP 48.70, EL 98, IFF 63, DTV 48.15, QCOM 56, ALTR 46, VALE 32. Stocks which met 50 day resistance Friday were NKE APD EMN COV LULU AMZN AN BBBY COST VIAB A MTL EOG RRC TPX CCK MWV ACN XLNX. Stocks that can be shorted as they pierce their 50 day MAs to the downside and their sell stop spots are ABC 40.60, HS 40.75, BMC 51.70, INFA 53.55, ROVI 52.50, NSC 70, TUP 61.75. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were AGN AGP HLS YUM PM CHKP QLIK CNI UNP HK TDC MSI QCOM TWC.

Good luck.

The author remains 100% in cash.

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