Saturday, May 7, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

This past week the market changed its complexion. The Nasdaq "outperformed" the S&P 500 for the week. The Nazz finished last week down 1.6%, compared with the S&P 500s 1.7% loss. Friday saw a big bump early on due to a better than expected jobs report, but a classic bear market tell, finished well off their lows. The Nasdaq finished more than 30 points off its intraday high Friday alone. The S&P 500 looks like its destined for a 50 day MA test near 1315. This week saw some enormous developments. After a late mention of Bin Ladens death Sunday evening, futures were up huge. That day and this week continued to grind lower. Economic reports were mixed at best. Employment Friday came in a bit better, but we also had a Q1 GDP revised a lot lower than forecast. ISM factory index was weak, US service sector index was also soft. China manufacturing fell unexpectedly. A 2.5% gain in the US dollar this week engineered a commodity sell off, to put it mildly. For the week silver lost a whopping 26%, oil 14%, coal 6%, copper 5%. Leading stocks took it on the chin this week too. JOYG lost 11%, CXO 12%, OPEN 19%, HES 10%. However some leading stocks managed to hit all time highs Friday. They were HS WPI AVGO TRV VMED. Regarding all the big intraday volatile moves involving the high frequency trading, are the computer programmers of these complex algorithms the guys who will be looked upon as having the new "inside information"? Know how these programs work, you have an edge. Earnings reports Monday include SUG SLW before the bell, and RAX BID after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points include: Cup with handles PVH 71.91, CHRW 81.63, ALV 81.29, TXN 36.08, EBAY 34.75, QCOM 58.56. Cup with high handles are VMW 99.29, AVT 37.44, KSU 59.02, ATI 73.63. 3 week tight patterns are IR 51.67, AN 35.08, A 50.78, HON 62.38, YUM 55.08 (YUM closed within a 1 penny range for the last 3 weeks!! Thats tight, bullish action). Double bottom with handles are COH 60.73, CE 51.10, AAPL 355.23. Flat bases are SBUX 38.31, DFS 25.21. Cup bases are ADI 41.76, MIXM 28.54, GR 94.22. Double bottom is KLAC 48.19. Again be careful with these buy points. Look for the market to show some strength and demand as always volume at least 40% greater the average daily volume on the break out day.

Stocks near 50 day support are APD 91, EMN 98, ROC 49, CAR 17.45, ABB 24.50, AME 43.25, CAT 107, WCN 29.25, WM 37.75, STJ 51, ANN 28.25, PAG 20.15, SBUX 36, KEG 15.55, OXY 102, SE 27.05, ARBA 32, BMC 49.75, INFA 50.75, ORCL 33.25, QLIK 26.25, RHT 44, SOHU 90, DHR 52, JBL 20.30, KO 66, CPO 50.50, ADS 85, KKR 17.50, CNI 74, ACN 54, ADP 51.80, APKT 72.50, CMCSA 25, AGCO 53.50, RAX 40.25, FLIR 33.25, TWI 26, TKR 50.50. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were LYB DOV APA CPX WMB CRM BUD DD EMC BHP ARW. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were WLT IL ARMH. WNR can be bought thru 17.50, its 50 day MA.

Stocks near 200 day MAs are NKE 81.50, LVS 42, KMX 30.50, BID 42, ANR 50.50, APC 68, ACI 30.20, CRZO 30, CLR 56, FTI 40.75, MDR 19, NOV 62, NBL 83, BTU 58, PXD 83, RDC 34.10, RDSA 66, SLB 77, SU 38, WLL 57, ADM 33, MT 34.75, NUE 42.55, RVDB 31, RIO 65.50, SLW 33.50, MON 64, POT 52, LRCX 47.50, WY 19.75. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were FCX MUR TCK EMR SWC AGU MOS F. CAM RIG PAAS all closed below their 200 day MAs. SUN had a nice move off its 200 day Friday after finding support their intraday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 resistance are MTL 27.25, BBD 19.75. TTM found 200 day resistance Friday,

Gap ups that hold for at least 4 days are very bullish. Some to keep an eye on, even though we are in a negative environment currently, are ALB GRA WYNN AET UNH VAIB EXPR SCSS CTXS NSC MCO PCLM.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are UA 70, CBE 65, JOYG 96, MTW 21, PLL 56.35, PH 92, BHI 71.25, CVX 105.50, EXXI 33.75, XOM 84, FTO 28, MRO 51.25, VLO 28.05, PAY 52, TRN 34, OMC 48.50, SWKS 30.25, DE 92.50, WFMI 62.25. Stocks that found 50 day resistance Friday were PPG PLL VPHM BHI CRZO XOM MRO RRC SGY AMP CTSH OMC GG SWKS DE JPM SWK. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MA and their sell stop spots are VFC 97.35, LYB 40.25, NFLX 222, DKS 39.50, FAST 63.55, OIS 74.10, NXPI 30.25. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs Friday were WRC KMX HAL RDSA RBCN SPRD.

Good luck.

The author owns FCX HK.

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