Monday, April 11, 2011

Monday Thoughts

Markets finished lower Monday after starting the day higher continuing a bearish trend of sturdy openings and weak closes. The difference today was that the move came in strong volume, especially on the Nasdaq. Not on did tech under perform but many stocks in the leading energy group lost their key 50 day MAs. Add to that, that Mondays have been strong days and there is a feeling that the market could be heading lower at least in the short term. Even M&A activity failed to cheer the indexes up. When good news is interpreted as bad by the marktes, weakness usually follow. That being said the Nasdaq did find support at its 50 day MA. The S&P 500 is still above that key MA. Earnings season began today and AA, reported after the close falling 3% on a revenue miss. Tomorrow FAST reports before the bell and we get same store sales estimates from the ICSC- Goldman index.

Stocks near specific buy points include BGC 45.75 in a cup base. Flat bases are PETM 43.49, VFC 100.34. Double bottom with handles are WCRX 24.43, CMI 113.75. VALE 35.70 in a double bottom base. Buys should be done cautiously here in this weakening environment. Demand strong volume on the breakout. If you have winners you may not want to wait until they turn into losers here.

Stocks near 50 day support are APA 122, APC 80, CHK 32.90, CLR 66.50, XOM 84, FTI 46.60, MRO 50, MDR 24, NBL 92, OIS 73, PTEN 27, HK 21.90, PBR 39.25, PXD 99.25, SM 70, SU 44.25, SUN 43.50, WNR 16.20, WMB 29.70, CAT 105, MTW 20, PLL 56, ROK 89, CBG 25.90, EMN 95, SOA 24, VPHM 18.10, BG 71, DE 92.50, CBS 23.20, A 43.95, DHR 50.95, BRKR 19.15, ADSK 42, BMC 49.30, ORCL 32.75, RHT 43.05, TIBX 25.10, ARMH 28.05, ALTR 41.60, PAY 49.30, CSX 75, IBM 162, FLIR 32.70, JWN 44.30, SBUX 34.50, KBR 35, CLF 93, JPM 46, AA 17 (had earnings after the close). Stocks that found 50 day support today were BEXP HAL TCK JOYG AET AVGO TXN ELL EXPD MT AAP TIF APKT. Stocks which can be bought if they can retake their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are VMW 84.25, ASML 43.40, SPRD 21.20, EMC 26.60.

Stocks near 200 day support are NOG 22, WFT 19.50, APH 50.50, JBL 16.90, CY 16, KLAC 38, MSCC 20, NVLS 31, SWKS 25.50, XLNX 29, RVBD 29.85, MTL 26.60, X 50.25, GR 81.50, COH 48.50, ALV 69.50, TRW 47.50, BAC 13.40. HOT found 200 day support today while GOLD found 200 day resistance. BRCM lost its 200 day today which normally leads to further weakness. MS was a poor relative performer in the bank sector and can be shorted if it loses its 200 day MA. Put in your sell stop at 26.60.

Stocks which can be shorted if they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are SPN 37.75, JOYG 95, DOW 37, ARBA 30.75, VRSN 35.70, DD 53.70, AMP 61.70, URI 31.20, GSM 21.65, DECK 84.50, ARUN 29.50. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day MA resistance are AVT 34.50, ATML 13.70, LRCX 54, MXIM 26, VSEA 46.10, PLCM 48, EAT 24, EBAY 32.10, QCOM 55.50, WY 24.30, BWA 76. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today, obvioulsy a bearish sign, and can be shorted if they rally to their 50 day MA and fail are CXO ACI BHI DVN HES NOV OXY BTU SLB VLO DOV AGCO AGU TTMI VSEA EAT.

Good luck.

We sold our FCX this morning as it was positive. Still lost about 80 cents on the trade overall though.

The author owns TTM RAX F.

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