Saturday, January 1, 2011

Weekend Stock Reflections

Friday saw another round of somewhat lackluster trade. Volume was tame and markets really went nowhere. The last couple of weeks are always slow with traders taking holiday. Stocks that have broken out this recently, continue to trade sideways and consolidate those gains into flat bases, cup with handles and 3 week tight formations. However some that did breakout this week were SQM MOS ANR TC, all in big volume in a week that traditionally shows extreme low volume levels. A very bullish sign for those stocks. Which sectors will be the strongest in 2011? As always let the charts show the way.

Stocks showing specific buy points are: 3 week tight bases are as follows, DKS @38.20, ANF @58.60, RAI @33.05, STZ @22.62, ADI @38.33, NDAQ @24.44, FAST @60.49, DHR @47.69, SWKS @29.85, AMG @102.16, FL @20.06, TSCO @49.57, KO @65.85, COST @73.26, WFMI @51.85, GPC @51.71, FMC @82.07, CBE @59.75, ORCL @32.37, SIAL @67.86, DD @50.27, EMC @23.30, TRMB @42.29, KSU @49.58, ROK @72.85, IR @47.60. Flat bases are as follows, EMR @58.84, EFX @36.23, ETN @102.80, LLTC @35.04, PCAR @57.93, ALB @57.44, VSH @15.72, ADP @47.27, CB @60.33, GES @50.30, M @26.42, F @17.13, WYN @31.51, BEXP @28.25, FTI @90.90, SUN @41.33, SPN @35.54, IBM @147.63, CSX @64.90, UNP @95.88. Cup with handles are CTXS @71.67, FDX @96.33, WSM @36.75, LOW @25.96, MT @38.90, MTL @29.84, NUE @44.97, STT @47.92. 4 week tight patterns are, TRW @54.93, CBI @33.59, VMW @92.05, NLC @32.72, QCOM @50.41, UPS @74.04, LRCX @53.01, PLL @51.11. Double bottom with handles are CRUS @17.06, CREE @72.95, NETL @34.45, GCI @16.27. Cup without handles are WNR @10.75, WM @37.35, and double bottom without handle is BBD @21.00. As always wait for the specific price confirmation and the big volume accompanying the move.

Stocks near their 50 day MA are: ALV @76.50, TEN @38, TRW @50, MGA @49.50, WYN @40, HOT @58.25, CPX @28, CAM @48, XOM @70.50, NBL @83.50, UPL @46.25, SBUX @31, URI @21, TAP @49.15, ALTR @34.50, CAVM @36, GFI @17.10, ERF @29, PTEN @20.70, OII @70, ADSK @36.75, INFA @44.25, PMTC @22.25, INTU @48, RHT @44.50, VRSN @32.25, BLL @66.25, RVBD @32.50, JNPR @34.50, NTGR @32.25, UPS @70.25, SWC @20, ROP @74, PFE @17, COH @54.20, TIF @60, FOSL @67.50, OVTI @29, TXN @31.90, NVLS @31, KLAC @38, MXIM @23, PAY @36.25, BEAV @36.50, XXIA @16.15, BMC @46, PLCM @37, HUN @14.80, MKC @45.25, PCS @12, APH @52, ICON @18.75, BX @13.70, MSCC @22.25, MIPS @14.25, BRKR @16, FISV @57, TQNT @11.25. Stocks that found support Friday at their 50 day MA and can be bought as long as that line of support holds are WYN RES CRM TDC FFIV PCP ORLY UA JWN HLF NKE BRCM FOE MCHP ROST. Stocks that can be bought as they break back above their 50 day MAs are: WYNN thru 106, EPD thru 42.25, VNO thru 84.25, IBN thru 52.

Stocks near 200 day MA are PBR @36, SWN @37.25, VNO @81.75, AKAM @44.30, RIMM @57, MRX @26.40, URBN @35, BUD @54, NYX @29, LOGI @17, CL @79.25, BP @42, PNC @58.25. PBR took out its 200 day on good volume Wednesday while volume in general was very weak for the rest of the market. A good sign. BBT can be bought thru 27.25, its 200 day MA.

Stocks building the right side of their base and that should be put on your watch list include JNS BLK USB RS MSFT AMTD CNX SPLS CVS PAYX.

ETFs near buy spots are: SMH can be bought @33.36 in a 4 week tight pattern. EWA @25, its 50 day MA. GLD found 50 day support this week. TBT is right at 50 day support here. FXI found 200 day support this week @42. XLF USO XHB are all building their right side of bases. OIH above 140 for the first time in 26 months breaking thru a long consolidation.

Stocks showing weakness are: GOOG NFLX CMG which all have recently lost their 50 day MA. And these are recent leaders which is not a great sign. Another leader PCLN is barely holding its 50 day here. BIDU also a former leader has the look of a bad, broken chart. Other high quality stocks that have recently lost their 50 day MAs are PVH HAS KMX LTD VIT. These names can be shorted back near their 50 day MA.

Portfolio changes Friday were selling CAKE for no gain or loss. A push.

The author owns NVDA ARMH CHRW X DE VRSN GPS KKR WCRX SDS. Short TTM EBAY.

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