September finished on a weak note today, but for the month which is traditionally weak, indexes had their best gains in more than 2 years. The Nazz was up 12% and the S&P almost 9%. Thursday also marked the end of the quarter, and for the sixth time in the last six end of quarter days the market finished lower. Stocks didnt react well to good economic news. PMI and first time jobless claims were stronger than expected. Leaders such as AAPL VMW NFLX performed poorly.
Stocks that can be bought as they retreat to their MAs are: CPX @19 INTU @42 (both 50 day) and PFE @16.75 (200 day). Keep an eye on APC thru 59. If it can get thru the 200 day buy it. TRMB continues to show great price action after its breakout recently. Good relative strength on a weak tape must be taken notice of.
CE is sporting a potential 33.10 buy point in a cup with handle base. The handle must be 5 days in duration so its still premature. Keep it on the watch list.
Stocks looking weak include: XEC held its 200 day to the penny today. But it has traded in a tight range between its 50 and 200 day MA. A break below the 200 day can be shorted. Sell stop @64.75 on XEC. RIMM continues to lose ground as it hits its 50 day MA. Short at 49.30 with a buy stop @51 to cover. CP had a negative outside day today. Sell stop @59.70. SBUX in a bearish head and shoulders formation.
Changes in the portfolio today were: Long A @33.47 (double bottom). Short WYNN @88 (50 day resistance).
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX CRUS A. Short AVGO PSA WYNN
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Mid Evening Musings
Markets today declined in soft volume. Leaders held firm and the day had the feeling of normal profit taking. Oil stocks gained as crude gained 2%. Auto and energy were among the strongest groups. Indexes started the day on a sour note with news of protests from all around Europe.
From the energy group a couple of stocks are gearing up for the 200 day area. APC @59 and SLB @62.50 can be bought as they pierce those resistance lines. XEC crashed at its 50 day and closed near its lows and XOM played its recent role of laggard beautifully. CAM is building its right side and CLF has formed a bullish cup with handle base with a buy point of 68.93.
Other stocks to take note of include CRM which is nearing its 50 day at 110. It must and should hold there. UPS has a 50 day test @66. RADS had a bullish day bouncing on strong volume off its 50 day @17. That can be bought here with a stop under the 50 day. OVTI is sporting a nice double bottom pattern here. The buy stop on OVTI is 23.72.
WYNN can be shorted @88.
We were stopped out on JKS today and initiated a position in CRUS @18.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX CRUS. Short AVGO PSA
From the energy group a couple of stocks are gearing up for the 200 day area. APC @59 and SLB @62.50 can be bought as they pierce those resistance lines. XEC crashed at its 50 day and closed near its lows and XOM played its recent role of laggard beautifully. CAM is building its right side and CLF has formed a bullish cup with handle base with a buy point of 68.93.
Other stocks to take note of include CRM which is nearing its 50 day at 110. It must and should hold there. UPS has a 50 day test @66. RADS had a bullish day bouncing on strong volume off its 50 day @17. That can be bought here with a stop under the 50 day. OVTI is sporting a nice double bottom pattern here. The buy stop on OVTI is 23.72.
WYNN can be shorted @88.
We were stopped out on JKS today and initiated a position in CRUS @18.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX CRUS. Short AVGO PSA
Quick Thought
Want to know where the real global growth is? Check out the banks. Look at our anemic financials. MS BAC WFC. Now look at IBN (India), CIB (Colombia), SAN (Chile), BBD (Brazil). Think you get the picture. You would think we were the emerging growth country. Can November come soon enough?
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Early Evening Thoughts
Market showed its strength today closing on the highs after starting the morning weak off some shaky economic data. Closing on highs after beginning on the lows is classic bull market action. Noticeably weak today were some leaders. AAPL BIDU CRM. Of course you can admire the markets strong move giving the weakness of some of those previously mentioned stalwarts. Volume came in above average feeding the fire for the bulls.
Buy stops can be placed on A @33.47 (double bottom), RTP @62.34 (cup base, although could form handle), SWC @18.58 (same as RTP), AMP @48.65 (cup with handle).
Stocks that can be bought as they trend to support lines are: CNQR @48, RADS @16.50 (both 50 day MA). Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru trend lines are: CRUS @18 (50 day), URBN @35.30 (200 day).
Gap up stocks that must be put on watch lists are: IBN, which gapped up 9/13 and has not looked back. ORCL gapped up 9/17 to a 10 yr high on monster volume. I am a believer that old leaders virtually never dominate as new leaders as a new bull market begins.
Other stocks to keep an eye on are IPI and MCO stubbornly holding onto their 200 day MA. JWN busted thru its 200 day today.
Stocks building the right side of the bases are JNPR SOA.
XEC can be shorted under 65 (200 day). Let the move confirm itself. XOM looks destined to test its 200 day near 64. Lets see how the psychological energy bellwether (although its a laggard) performs there. CNI can be shorted under 62.25.
We shorted PSA today back near par. Looks like 50 day may be resistance now.
Good luck. Shed losers promptly.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX. Short JKS AVGO PSA
Buy stops can be placed on A @33.47 (double bottom), RTP @62.34 (cup base, although could form handle), SWC @18.58 (same as RTP), AMP @48.65 (cup with handle).
Stocks that can be bought as they trend to support lines are: CNQR @48, RADS @16.50 (both 50 day MA). Stocks that can be bought as they pass thru trend lines are: CRUS @18 (50 day), URBN @35.30 (200 day).
Gap up stocks that must be put on watch lists are: IBN, which gapped up 9/13 and has not looked back. ORCL gapped up 9/17 to a 10 yr high on monster volume. I am a believer that old leaders virtually never dominate as new leaders as a new bull market begins.
Other stocks to keep an eye on are IPI and MCO stubbornly holding onto their 200 day MA. JWN busted thru its 200 day today.
Stocks building the right side of the bases are JNPR SOA.
XEC can be shorted under 65 (200 day). Let the move confirm itself. XOM looks destined to test its 200 day near 64. Lets see how the psychological energy bellwether (although its a laggard) performs there. CNI can be shorted under 62.25.
We shorted PSA today back near par. Looks like 50 day may be resistance now.
Good luck. Shed losers promptly.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX. Short JKS AVGO PSA
Monday, September 27, 2010
Night Charting
The markets today gave back a small portion of last week gains. The Nasdaq is still up 12% this month alone, and the weak volume today suggested big players remained on the sidelines. Leading stocks performed admirably today as well, cushioning the blow.
Lets remember our buy stops HOT @54.35, (cup with handle), TEN @29.84 (cup base), BUCY @72.60 (cup with handle) and OVTI @23.72. We can buy CXO @62 (50 day), CPX @19 (50 day), PFE @16.75 and IPI @26 (both 200 day).
Stocks going through moving averages and can be bought as they go thru them are: CRUS thru 18 (50 day), APC thru 59 (200 day)
RIG looking good and a new chart that I discovered that I really like is AXTI.
Today I bought some TIBX @18.05. The gap up on Friday after that earnings beat usually foreshadows a stronge future move. Lets remember how well stocks performed after gapping up. CTXS INFA INTU OPEN APKT CHRW AAP DLTR, and of course NZ come to mind. The risk reward set up here of losing a point to maybe gain 4 or 5 is the set ups we look for all the time.
PSA lost its 50 day today. Looks weak and can be shorted back up to that line.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX. Short JKS AVGO
Lets remember our buy stops HOT @54.35, (cup with handle), TEN @29.84 (cup base), BUCY @72.60 (cup with handle) and OVTI @23.72. We can buy CXO @62 (50 day), CPX @19 (50 day), PFE @16.75 and IPI @26 (both 200 day).
Stocks going through moving averages and can be bought as they go thru them are: CRUS thru 18 (50 day), APC thru 59 (200 day)
RIG looking good and a new chart that I discovered that I really like is AXTI.
Today I bought some TIBX @18.05. The gap up on Friday after that earnings beat usually foreshadows a stronge future move. Lets remember how well stocks performed after gapping up. CTXS INFA INTU OPEN APKT CHRW AAP DLTR, and of course NZ come to mind. The risk reward set up here of losing a point to maybe gain 4 or 5 is the set ups we look for all the time.
PSA lost its 50 day today. Looks weak and can be shorted back up to that line.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX AMT AKAM EXXI APA WLL TIBX. Short JKS AVGO
Friday, September 24, 2010
Weekend Stock Reflections
Another week in the black. Makes four straight winning weeks for US stocks. The Nasdaq led the way today with a 2.3% gain, thanks in part to the chip sector vaulting 4%. For the week the Nasdaq also led the indexes, now firmly entrenched above their 50 and 200 day MA. Volume was solid adding validity to the rally. New highs crushed new lows and basically all industry groups finished higher. Leading stocks, a great gauge of the healthiness of the rally, soared.
Stocks that have now developed specific buy points include: NBL @77.63 (cup with handle), TRW @39.96 (cup without handle), TEN @29.84 (cup without handle), TSL @28.97 (double bottom with handle), KSU @39.58 (double bottom with handle), FCX @88.40 an add on buy point since we already own it (double bottom, could develop a handle), BUCY @72.60 (cup with handle), FAST @55.95 (double bottom). These are buy stop orders to be executed at these prices when volume is strong.
Buy stops that can be entered as they break through their MAs are: Going through their 200 day MA. SLB @62.85, JWN @37.60, VLTR @23. Stocks going through their 50 day are: RRC @37, CRUS @18, XEC @70.25.
Stocks that we spoke about recently that were not purchased that are doing well are: IPI gave us two chances to get in at the 200 day @26. WLT through 80 continues to look great. CRZO rebounded off its 200 day @ 22. TRMB broke out of a cup base without a handle @33.66 and holding above that level consolidating the gains. A bullish sign.
Stocks building the right sides of their bases are VALE ROK SWC.
We purchased APA through the 200 day @98.25 on Friday.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, EXXI, WLL, APA. Short of JKS AVGO
Stocks that have now developed specific buy points include: NBL @77.63 (cup with handle), TRW @39.96 (cup without handle), TEN @29.84 (cup without handle), TSL @28.97 (double bottom with handle), KSU @39.58 (double bottom with handle), FCX @88.40 an add on buy point since we already own it (double bottom, could develop a handle), BUCY @72.60 (cup with handle), FAST @55.95 (double bottom). These are buy stop orders to be executed at these prices when volume is strong.
Buy stops that can be entered as they break through their MAs are: Going through their 200 day MA. SLB @62.85, JWN @37.60, VLTR @23. Stocks going through their 50 day are: RRC @37, CRUS @18, XEC @70.25.
Stocks that we spoke about recently that were not purchased that are doing well are: IPI gave us two chances to get in at the 200 day @26. WLT through 80 continues to look great. CRZO rebounded off its 200 day @ 22. TRMB broke out of a cup base without a handle @33.66 and holding above that level consolidating the gains. A bullish sign.
Stocks building the right sides of their bases are VALE ROK SWC.
We purchased APA through the 200 day @98.25 on Friday.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, EXXI, WLL, APA. Short of JKS AVGO
Thursday, September 23, 2010
After the Close
Todays seesaw action in the end turned up a slightly negative session. Volume was tame easing the pain. Leaders such as AAPL AMZN BIDU NFLX performed admirably. Earning after the close from NKE and TIBX have both stocks registering nice after market gains. Economic news on the day was different with jobless claims coming in higher than expected but existing home sales were higher than forecasts.
Stocks and areas to focus on them are as follows. Stocks that can be bought as they trade to their 50 day MAs are: CPX @19, ADTN @32, CHRW @65, UNP @76, RADS @16, RES @18. XEC can be bought at its 200 day MA @64. Tight stops on all purchases as always.
Two stocks to keep on the watchlist. Both developing cup with handle buy points. Wait til the buy points are taken on on big volume. Dont try to get in early. Let the move confirm itself. HOT @54.35 and DOV @52.08.
American steel stocks continued to take the recent beatings they been given. NUE, X both well under their 200 day are now firmly below there 50 day as well. Put in a sell stop, to short, on FDX @81.75.
Sold AN today right back where we bought it at 23. Took a push. Didnt like the chart action.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, WLL, EXXI. Short JKS AVGO
Stocks and areas to focus on them are as follows. Stocks that can be bought as they trade to their 50 day MAs are: CPX @19, ADTN @32, CHRW @65, UNP @76, RADS @16, RES @18. XEC can be bought at its 200 day MA @64. Tight stops on all purchases as always.
Two stocks to keep on the watchlist. Both developing cup with handle buy points. Wait til the buy points are taken on on big volume. Dont try to get in early. Let the move confirm itself. HOT @54.35 and DOV @52.08.
American steel stocks continued to take the recent beatings they been given. NUE, X both well under their 200 day are now firmly below there 50 day as well. Put in a sell stop, to short, on FDX @81.75.
Sold AN today right back where we bought it at 23. Took a push. Didnt like the chart action.
Good luck.
The author owns FCX, AMT, AKAM, WLL, EXXI. Short JKS AVGO
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