Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Tuesday Recap

Markets rebounded Tuesday, in weak volume. The major indicies closed off their highs for the day. Banks were stronger, while oil and precious metals stocks were weak. Leading stocks and sectors continue to either underperform or simply stall out and burn. Take FNSR which after the close plunged more than 30% post earnings. That took along with it JDSU. NFLX, which recently encountered competiton from AMZN, now will also have to worry about TWX streaming movies on Facebook. The SOX, which has been the number one performing sector as of late, which was hit for a 2.7% loss Monday, basically closed flat Tuesday. Not the type of roaring comeback you would like to see on a strong tape Tuesday. High volume selloff days have been mounting, but the indexes maintain 50 day support. Defensive groups have been gaining steam as medical, food, and utilities muster clout. That being said this market seems to keep finding bids just when it looks like its going to break. Will that fad end soon? Look to the market and its price and volume action for clues. Earnings Wednesday come from AEO before the open and SMTC after the close.

Stcoks near specific buy points include YUM 52.57, in a cup base. HS 38.85 in a 3 weeks tight pattern and NDAQ 29.82, URI 33.73 both cup with handles.

Stocks near 50 day support are JCI 40, ARMH 27, AVGO 30.50, MXIM 26.10, SWKS 33, TXN 34.70, NUE 46.25, DHR 48.60, JBL 21, CBE 62, ACI 34, HAL 43.50, HES 81.80, HOC 50, NBL 88, OXY 99, PXD 94.25, RRC 48.35, SLB 88, VLO 26.15, EXXI 30.15, WNR 13.50, CRZO 34.30, BHP 92, SWC 22.90, LOGI 19, AGCO 53, POT here, EBAY 31.15, LTD 30.90, PETM 40.50, SBUX 32.90, DD 52, PPG 85.85, RAI 33, AMP 61.50, ACN 51.25, WY 22.90, BMC 48.60, INFA 46, TIBX 23, LAZ 43, QCOM 55, CRUS 21, NXPI 26, VSEA 44, CBI 34.30, IVZ 25.30, TJX 48. Stocks that found 50 day support Tuesday are HON GRA WCRX JPM COF ARW RIMM TTMI MWV FCS MCHP ATI ATU JOYG APC PAAS ETN ELL EMR NWL DE SINA LULU BUD ORCL. Stocks that can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and the buy stop spots are ORLY 57.25, ABV 28.35, INFY 70.60, TTM 26.75. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Tuesday were PVH COH AAP COST TROW LEN UNP IBN.

Stocks near 200 day support are BRCM 39, SNDK 44, MIPS 10.50, SWN 36.95, SCCO 38.25, NTAP 49, FFIV 105, LVS 38, MAR 37, RHT 39, VMW 81.25, BBD 19, BEAV 33. Stocks that found 200 day support Tuesday were F JKS HXL EXPD. AEM lost its 200 day MA.

Stocks looking weak today and closed lower on a decent tape included CAVM NVDA ATML ARUN AMZN NFLX. ATML NFLX both look to have had major trend changes recently losing their 50 days in big volume.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose thier 50 day MAs and the sell stops are ADI 39, WAG 41.50, AMAT 15.50. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MA are ALV 77.50, UPS 73.50, ONNN 11, WBC 60, TEN 42, CAVM 42.50, LLTC 35, MSCC 23, TKR 50, PH 89, CCJ 40.60, FWLT 36.80, NOC 68, CE 42.25, SOA 24, ADSK 41.50.

Good luck.

The authir remains flat.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday Monday

Markets mirrored Fridays action somewhat while finishing lower, but off their lows for the day. Tech took the hardest beating, specifically semis as WFC downgraded the sector. Semis we must remember have been the strongest sector as of late so when the leaders get hit attention must be paid. That being said they have had a huge run. Indexes themselves remain above their 50 day MAs, although the Nasdaq was below that line intraday, but rallied to finish with support there. Volume was mixed. Along with the chips, fiber optics, transports, and networkers were hit. Silver was the best performinng group. The VXX and SDS are both challenging their 50 day MAs. Could be clues to where the indexes are headed. After hours URBN was plunging, and tomorrow we can expect DKS to report in the morning and FNSR after the close.

Stocks near buy points include RES 22.68 in a cup base, and HS 38.85 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. Remaining defensive is prudent here, and make selective purchases near support lines, or breakout points on heavy volume. As always cut losses quickly, especially in this type of environment.

Stocks near 50 day support are PAG 18.20, BWA 72.50, JCI 40, ARMH 26.70, AVGO 30.45, MXIM 26, TXN 34.70, ATI 62.25, DHR 48.55, CBE 62, DOV 62, JOYG 92, APC 78, HAL 43.50, HES 81.80, SLB 88, VLO 26, BHP 92, SWC 23, APH 55.20, OPEN 82, AGCO 53, AGU 93, MOS 81, POT 58, RTN 50.25, RAX 34.50, ANF 54, MCD 75, JWN here, TJX 48, PETM 40.50, WFMI 54, DD 52, PPG 85.50, PX 95, BUD 56.50, AMP 61.50, URI 28, ACN 51, ADP 49, IBM 157, WY 22.80, CHKP 47.40, INTU 49.25, TIBX 22.90, VRSN 34.25, KSU 51.60, RJF 36, RIMM 63.80, QCOM 54.50, CVLT 33, CRUS 21, AMAT 15.50, MMC 28.50, VSEA 44, MOLX 26, MWV 28.40, CBI 34.25, ERJ 32.50, IT 36, AMT 52.20, IVZ 25.20. Stocks that found 50 day support among the wreckage today were ADI SWKS ATU BLL NWL DE LULU EBAY INFA JPM LAZ GRA WCRX. JRCC reclaimed its 50 day after earnings.

Stocks near 200 day support are MGA 45, BRCM 39, LLTC 32, MSCC 19.20, MIPS 10.50, JKS 23, AEM 68.70, FCX 45.90, VALE 31, SCCO 38.25, PVH 58, NTAP 48.75, FFIV 105, ORLY 54, LVS 38, MAR 37, HOT 54, INFY 66, RHT 39, VMW 81, CHRW 69.50, FDX 86.25, BBD 19, BAC 13.50, GS 155, BEAV 33, SNDK 44. Stocks that found 200 day support were HXL CCL EXPD TTM. TAP TGT continue to trade horribly below their 200 day MAs.

Stocks looking weak today were CNQ SU PAAS MCP NKE VMW all of which had outside reversal days today. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were ATML CAVM CY CCJ AA LDK MON FISV LEN ONNN. Stocks having continuous issues with 50 day resistance recently are QLIK PMTC UPS LLTC TKR AVT PH AEM RIO VALE ABV FWLT NOC GOOG BBBY COST CE SOA ADSK. Stocks that can be shorted at their 5o day MAs are CY 21, CCJ 40.60. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and the sell stops for those orders are FCS 17.40, RS 53.75, JBL 20.60, ETN 52.50, WSM 34.75, NSC 63.70, ARW 37.40.

Good luck.

The author remains flat.

Mid Day

Markets flashing bearish activity today. After a quick positive open, markets have been sliding ever since. The S&P 500 is barely hanging onto its 50 day MA at 1300, but the Nasdaq has lost its 50 day intraday here. The chips, a top rated group as of late is faltering here and is just above its 50 day MA. Volume is tracking higher thus far. And we did notice a few Mondays back that the strong Monday trend was waning and today is certainly making that prognostication looking more and more real. The VXX is retaking its 50 day MA in big volume here, and the SDS is knocking on its 50 day door. Both of these ETFs have not been above their 50 day MAs since last summer. Could be a trend changer.

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Weekend Market Thoughts

Markets sold off Friday, but a late day flurry had indexes cut those losses in half. For the week both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed up marginally. Fridays jobs report was greeted in a benign way, but the continuation of oils advance over par is adding concern. Some breakouts are working but more are stalling. Volume on down days has been heavy, while the indexes advance on declining volume. The indexes themsleves continue to find support at their 50 day MAs, and until those trendlines are violated, the markets moves must be respected. The leaders also have shown strong support off their 50 day MAs. AAPL is up $23 in the last 9 days since flexing its muscles near its 50 day on 2/22. NFLX received excellent 50 day support Friday on a weak tape. LULU OPEN CMG all have been stubborn about holding their 50 day MAs this week as well. Keep an eye on the VXX and SDS (complacency and inverse index ETFs) this week to see if they can break above their 50 day MAs. That can be a potential negative.The economic calendar is light Monday, and CIEN reports before the open and URBN after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points are: 3 week tight patterns are NBR 28.90, OKE 65.18, JNPR 45.08, OIH 166.08 (oil ETF), XOM 78.33, PX 100.02, HS 38.85. Double bottoms are BUD 59.08, BBD 20.89, EWZ 79.19 (Brazil ETF). Cup bases are ACI 36.60, NKE 92.59, RES 22.68. CVX 104.73 in a saucer base dating back 3 years, which would also be an all time high. ROST 72.96 in a 4 week tight patter. Flat bases are CTSH 77.84, CLW 23.53, APH 59.01. URI 33.73 in a cup with handle pattern. Recent breakouts still holding above buy points are XLNX above its 34.22 4 weeks tight base. KLAC above its 50.08 cup with handle buy point. WAT well past its 81.10 cup base buy point it broke out of on 2/18, and was up 3% Friday on a weak tape.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and the buy stop spots are PUDA 12.80, VALE 35.20, ORLY 57.50, UNP 96.25, TTM 26.60. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Friday were TEL WLT MON SINA. Stocks near their 50 day MAs are ARMH 26.50, ADI 39.10, ATML here, AVGO 30.50, CAVM 42, MXIM 26, MCHP 36.50, SWKS 33, TXN 34.50, ATI 62.25, RS 54, DHR 48.50, JBL 21, ATU 27.90, CAT 98, CBE 62, DOV 62, JOYG 91, APC 78, BP 47, HAL 43, HES 81.75, SLB 88, BHP 95, GFI 17, LOGI 19, AGCO 53, DE 90, LLL 79.25, RTN 50.10, RAX 34.50, LULU 73, EBAY 31, MCD 75, JWN 43.20, PETM 40.50, WAG 41.30, DD 52, DOW 36.10, LYB 36.25, PPG 85.75, AMP 61.25, ACN 51, ADP 48.95, IBM 157, CHKP 47.50, INFA 46, VRSN 34.30, KSU 51.75, JPM 45.10, ARW 38, GE 19.85, RJF 36, WY 22.75, RIMM 64, ETN 53.40, BLL here, LAZ 43, AMT 52.10, EMR 59, TJX 48, MWV 28.30, POT 58, CRZO 34.20. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were TRW AA ANN NFLX P=ORCL JPM EMR NWL.

Stocks near 200 day support are F 14.10, BRCM 39, MIPS 10.50, JRCC 19.10, SWN 36.90, WFT 18.50, AEM 68.50, PVH 58, NTAP 48.50, CCL 39.50, MAR 37, HOT 54, INFY 66, RHT 39, EXPD 47, VMW 81, CHRW 69.50, FDX 86.25, UPS 68, BAC 13.50, GS 155, STT 41.35, HXL 18, BEAV 33, TTM 24.80. HPQ can be shorted if 200 day resistance holds at 44. TGT TAP continue to trade woefully under their 200 day MAs. BUD was up nicely this week post earnings and continued that action Friday. TAP was lower. Perhaps an alcoholic pair trade. Long BUD, short TAP.

AGU EMN PX NBL all nearing par. CXO continues to hold nicley above par. CXO WLL CLR all almost entirely domestic oil and gas producers have outperformed their multi national integrated brethen. These charts have been strong well before the Jasmine Revolution was conceived. Perhaps institutions are betting on domestic drilling reform here at home. Im not holding my breath, but with oil surging you never know. Lookiing on weekly charts you can see long saucer like patterns forming on energy names DVN COP NBL. They are all building the right sides of their bases and warrant inclusion on your watchlists.

Gap ups still holding strong are EL RL FNSR TBL MET WMB MMC APKT. Relative strength was exhibited by JCI A WAT BTU ARUN CMG RVBD JDSU Friday on a weak tape. Again take notice of that bullish action.

Stocks showing relative weakness Friday were FCX GOOG. TKR AVT PH JKS RIO MS all lost their 50 day MAs Friday. Stocks that met 50 day resistance on Friday were they could be shorted were BBBY CE ABV ADSK UPS XHB (homebuilder ETF). Sell stops can be placed on the following stocks if they lose their 50 day lines. WSM 34.75, FISV 61, NSC 63.90, LDK 12.30, COF 47.50, CY 20.50. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are TEN 42, LLTC 35, MSCC 23, MTL 31.60, X 58, AVT 35, PH 89, NOC 68, COST 73, SOA 24, HOT 61.50, GR 90.

Good luck.

The author is flat.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Thursday Recap

Markets roared back Thursday in mediocre volume. Small caps outperformed. Strong economic data lifted indexes to big gains. Jobless claims, retail sales and business productivity all exceeded forecasts. Transports and refiners led while gold miners lagged. Was today a huge short covering rally before a huge employment number tomorrow, or is the volume just to prevalent of market gurus calling for a long overdue correction? I for one am wrong so far in my market direction call, but as John Maynard Keynes once famoulsy quipped, "when the facts change, I change my mind sir, what do you do?". At least for the time being I am wrong. And the fact that volume is not accompanying the thrust upward, another trader I respect said "you can go broke on low volume". At the expense of sounding like a broken record again, let the markets price and volume, formulate your actions, not your own personal thoughts. Not much on the earnings front tomorrow unless you are a Knick fan, as the illquid, recent IPO MSG reports tomorrow. And of course the big jobs number Friday morning.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup with handles WY 25.43, URI 33.73, NDAQ 29.81, GD 78.37, UA 70.53, NOV 82.08. Cup bases are ACI 36.60, NKE 92.59, RES 22.68. Double bottoms are SQM 58.01, BBD 20.89, BUD 58.98, and EMC 27.48 in a 3 weeks tight pattern. KLAC broke out of a 50.08 cup with handle buy point Thursday.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs are X 58.20, VALE 35.15, MON 72.25, NOC 68.25, BBBY 49.25, ORLY 57.50, TTM 26.65, CCJ 40.95, CBD 39.20, MCP 51. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MAs Thursday were MT TRW TKR AVT TEL PH WLT AA RIO COH PVH AAP MCD SBUX BUD TROW ORCL UNP BBD IBN EMR. Stocks near 50 day support are SWKS 33, JBL 21, RRC 48, SLB 88, PAAS 36.50, AGU 92.50, DE 89.75, JWN 43.15, DD 51.75, INFA 46, JPM 45, CRZO 34, BLL 35.70. Stocks that found 50 day support Thursday were ATML SPRD SUN DE LULU WAG COF.

Stocks near 200 day support are F 14.10, MIPS 10.25, JRCC 19.10, PUDA 10.10, AEM 68.50, CCL 39.30, MAR 37. HPQ met 200 day resistance today.

Stocks near the century mark, aka PAR, are EMN BHP. CLF back over par again today. KKR hit an all time high Thursday, and DHR CAT DOV CBE ROK are all within a dollar or two of their all time highs as well.

Stocks looking weak today and demomstrating poor relative strength today were GNTX CNQ EL TAP JKS TGT ABV FCX NFLX UPL HPQ LVS QLIK. PSS had an outside day today. SOA was stopped at its 50 day MA today. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are CMI 109, TEN 42.05, BRCM 44, MSCC 23, NVDA 21.95, SINA 82, COST 73, HOT 62, GR 90. Sell stops can be place on the following as they fall below their 50 day MAs. JCI 39.60, NFLX 200, FISV 61, LDK 12.40.

Good luck.

The author is flat.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Wednesday After Market

Markets rebounded in a very weak way Wednesday. Both major indexes were down in heavy volume Tuesday, and traded higher today in slower trade. The Nasdaq which was down 45 points Tuesday, came back 11 points today. The S&P 500 down 21 Tuesday, traded higher Wednesday by 2 points. Not exactly the bullish behavior you would like to see. That being said both indexes did manage to finish above their 50 day MAs. Chips and drillers were the winners Wednesday. To add to the bearish feeling, when the market failed to rebound Tuesday after some very encouraging economic data, (ISM numbers) that is never a good sign. When markets react poor to good news, something is amiss. Today saw more good economic data with the Feds beige book report and good private employment numbers. We also have the VXX trading right up to its 50 day MA, and the SDS about 80 cents from challenging its 50 day line. SDS has been kept under its 50 day MA since last September, and the VXX since last July. Is a trend change emerging? As always let the indexes price and volume action dictate your moves. Not your own opinions. Tomorrow we have jobless claims and chain store sales. Earnings come from HNZ before the open, and MRVL SLW after the close.

Stocks near specific buy points are: Cup with handles KLAC 50.08, NOV 82.08, LTD 33.83, URI 33.73. 3 week tight patterns are EMC 27.48, ADP 50.05. Cup with high handle is JPM 48.46. XLNX broke out of a 4 week tight pattern today at 34.22 on the back of a JPM upgrade. Not entirely authentic break out because of the upgrade, but a breakout it is.

Stocks near 50 day support are MXIM 26, SWKS 32.70, ATI 62, NUE 46, DHR 48.25, CAT 97.50, DOV 62, JOYG 90.50, PLL 52, APC 77, HAL 43, HES 81, BTU 63, RRC 48, SLB 88.75, VLO 24.90, BHP 92, UA 60, RVBD 38, TDC 45, AGU 92, RTN 50, RAX 34.25, EBAY 31, JWN 43.15, DD 51.50, RAI 33, ACN 51, VRSN 34.15, KSU 51, GE 19.60, RIMM 63, APH 55, CBG 23, MWV 28.10, CRZO 34, CBI 34, ERJ 32.05. Stocks that found 50 day support today were ADI ATML MCHP OXY GD CMG FOSL WAG YUM DOW EMN NFLX LEN BMC INFA BLL LAZ. Stocks that can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop points are MT 37.10, TEL 36.60, VALE 35.10, AAP 64, ANN 24.20, MCP 50.25. Stocks that reclaimed their 50 day MA today were ACI ABV.

Stocks near 200 day support are F 14.05, MIPS 10.20, JRCC 19.05, PUDA 10.10, SWN 37, PVH 57.90, NTAP 48.50, CCL 39.30, MAR 37, BUD 55.50, INFY 65.80, RHT 39, CHRW 69.25, BBD 18.80, BAC 13.55, BEAV 32.75, TTM 24.50. Stocks that found 200 day support today were MCD VMW FDX EXPD CBD HXL. IBN HPQ found 200 day resistance today.

WLL CAM PM all hit new all time highs today.

Stocks looking weak today were QCOM, a notable laggard today. ALV, like FCX yesterday is looking like its forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern. NVDA COST ADSK AFL all lost their 50 day MAs today. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are GNTX 31, LLTC 35, MSCC 23, MTL 31.50, TKR 49.75, A 42.50, AVT 34.90, WLT 127, AA 16.25, RIO 71.25, COH 55, BBBY 49, SBUX 32.80, TIF 61.50, CE 42, SOA 24, LVS 47, TROW 67, UNP 95.25, UPS 73.40, IBN 46, FWLT 36.50. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and the corresponding sell stop prices are JCI 39.60, TRW 57.50, RS 53.30, LULU 72.40, WSM 34.90, NFLX 200, AMP 61, FISV 61, COF 47.50, HON 55.

Good luck.

The author is flat.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Tuesday After Market

Markets Tuesday suffered in higher volume. It ended a streak of beginning of the month rallies. Since August of last year, the first day of the trading month was greeted with buyers delight. Oil prices seemed to catch the blame today, but the market has showed signs of distribution (institutional selling) 5 of the past 14 sessions. Gold and silver related companies were the standouts today, while chips and transports were the laggards. The Nasdaq which lost 1.6% today closed right on its 50 day MA. The S&P 500 is getting very close to its 50 day MA. This would be the secong time these major indexes are attempting to find support their in recent days. That line of support is now looking tenuous. I have been in cash for sometime now, utilizing a defensive posture. Will be looking for shorting opportunities in the near term here, especially if the indexes 50 days are taken out. COST JOYG SPLS report before the open and the Fed releases its latest beige book report.

Stocks near specific buy points are ABX 54.03, GFI 18.48, BUD 58.98 all double bottom bases and come from defensive sectors.

Stocks near 50 day support are BWA 72.50, ATML 14, AVGO 30, FCS 17.40, MXIM 25.90, NVDA here, SWKS 32.75, TXN 34.25, ATI 62, NUE 46, DHR 48.25, CAT 97.50, DOV 62, PLL 52, APC 77, BP 46.50, HES 81, MDR 21.25, OXY 99, BHP 92, DECK 81.50, RVBD 38, TDC 45, AGU 92, GD 74, RTN 49.80, RAX 34.15, CMG 235, COST 73, EBAY 31, LTD 30.75, JWN 43.10, WFMI 53.80, YUM 49.10, DD 51.50, LYB 36, AMP 61, KKR 15.55, ACN 50.90, IBM 156, BMC 48.50, CHKP 47.25, INTU 49, VRSN 34.10, KSU 51, JPM 45, ARW 37.75, RJF 35.75, AMT 52, SWC 22.40, CCJ here, COF 48, PAG 18, MWV 28.10, NWL 18.80, ERJ 32, CRZO 34. Stocks that are moving back to the 50 day MA in light volume and very orderly fashion are ATML DHR RAX JWN ACN. I will have buy stops on those previous mentioned for a partial position which will be added to if the stock continues higher after 50 day support. Stocks that found 50 day support on an ugly tape today were SINA LULU PETM NFLX LAZ. Stocks that can be purchased as they reclaim their 50 day MAs are AAP 64, ABV 28.30, MCP 50.20. AEM AZO reclaimed their 50 day MAs today.

Stocks near 200 day support are F 14.10, BRCM 39, LLTC 32, MSCC 19, MIPS 10.20, JRCC 19, PUDA 10.15, VALE 31, LOGI 17.25, CBD 37, NTAP 48.25, FFIV 105, ANN 21.10, MCD 74, ORLY 54, CCL 39.25, MAR 37, INFY 65.80, RHT 39, ROVI 50, VMW 81, CHRW 69, EXPD 46.60, FDX 86, BBD 18.80, BAC 13.50, SCCO 38, HXL 18, BEAV 32.60, TTM 24.50. HPQ TAP both met 200 day resistance today. UPL lost its 200 day today.

Stocks that showed solid relative strength today on a weak tape were CXO WYNN JDSU RIMM IBN.

Stocks looking weak and which had bearish outside days were GOOG COST OMC BID FOE CE CSX EMN ALB AFL PM GE HP. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were AA RIO PVH MON GOOG SBUX TIF TROW ORCL PMTC UNP UPS MS DKS EMR. Stocks that are finding resistance with their 50 day MAs recently are WFC IBN HOT FWLT WBC WM A TEL ITW COH NOC AMZN ANN BBBY CE SOA LVS. Stocks that can be shorted at their 50 day MAs are GNTX 31, TRW 57.50, SPRD 20.50, TKR 49.75, AVT 34.85, BBBY 49, TROW 67, EMR 59. Stocks that can be shorted under their 50 day MAs and placed sell stops on are JCI 39.55, ADI 38.75, MCHP 36, RS 53.40, JBL 20.75, WFT 23.35, AGCO 52.25, TEX 32.60, FOSL 72.50, WSM 35, DOW 35.75, EMN 89.75, FISV 61, ADP 48.40, ADSK 41, INFA 45.40, BLL 35.40. FCX looks to be forming a bearish head with shoulders pattern.

Good luck.

The author is flat.